Tun bayan da Vladimir Putin ya mamaye kasar Ukraine a ranar 24 ga watan Fabrairu, galibin kafafen yada labarai na yammacin duniya sun dauka cewa burinsa shi ne ya mamaye kasar baki daya, ya hambarar da zababbiyar gwamnatin kasar, tare da maye gurbinta da gwamnatin Rasha. Wadannan rahotanni, da taswirorin da ke tare da su, yawanci sun kasa yin la'akari da yankuna daban-daban na Ukraine, da kuma yadda Rasha za ta iya kwadayin wasu fiye da wasu.
Wannan shi ne kuskure na asali wanda ya kasance tare da rahotannin farko game da yake-yake a Iraki da Afganistan, wanda sau da yawa yakan yi watsi da yankunan kabilanci da na addini a cikin waɗannan ƙasashe, da kuma yin amfani da bincike na siyasa da na soja na sama wanda ya dauke su a matsayin kasa na kasa. Sai daga baya a cikin wadannan yake-yake ne taswirorin kabilanci da bangaranci suka fara bayyana salon juriyar mamayar Amurka. Kamar waɗannan ƙasashe biyu, Ukraine ba kawai yanki ba ne a kan kwamitin darasi na geopolitical, amma a wuri, tare da ɗimbin arziƙinta da alaƙa tsakanin mutane.
Bugu da ƙari, kafofin watsa labaru na yammacin duniya suna kula da rikicin Ukraine kawai a cikin hasken 20thCold War na karni, yana zaton cewa tsohon wakilin KGB Putin yana son sake kirkiro Tarayyar Soviet. Amma duk da haka Putin ya fadi akasin haka, a cikin wani yamutsin kalaman kyamar gurguzu da suka yi gabanin mamayewar. A bayyane yake hangen nesan daular Rasha da aka sabunta, amma manazarta daga 'yan gudun hijira na baya-bayan nan suna da wahalar fahimtar cewa abubuwan tunawa na iya tsawaita ƙarni da yawa kafin rayuwar shekaru 74 na Tarayyar Soviet.
Daga baya na da koyar da azuzuwan koleji game da labarin kasa na Rasha da Gabashin Tsakiyar Turai, ya bayyana a gare ni cewa babban burin Putin shi ne ya sassaka wani yanki na musamman na Rasha daga Ukraine. Domin ya gwammace ya ciji wani katon gungu na Yukren maimakon ya hadiye shi gaba daya, rabon Ukraine din yana kan teburi.
Taswirori a cikin tunanin Putin
Taswirori suna da mahimmanci. A game da Ukraine, taswirar farko da ke nuna rinjaye na masu magana da Rasha a gabashi da kudancin Ukraine (wakilta da ja) al'amura sosai ga Vladimir Putin. Cikin rashin jin dadi Fabrairu 21 address ga al'ummar kasar, ya tunatar da 'yan Rasha cewa "a cikin karni na 18, an ba da sunan Novorossiya" (ko New Rasha), ƙasashen da ke cikin tekun Black Sea, wanda aka haɗa a cikin Rasha a sakamakon yaƙe-yaƙe da Daular Ottoman.
Ba shi ne karon farko ba da Putin ya yi kira ga yankin kudanci da kudu maso gabashin Ukraine na "Novorossiya" da ke magana da harshen Rashanci, kuma ya dauki yankin a matsayin wanda ya bambanta da yankin yammacin Ukraine (mai launin rawaya) da kuma gauraye yankin Ukraine da Rasha. (a cikin orange). Har ila yau Rashawa suna kiran tsakiyar Ukraine a matsayin "Malorossiya" (Ƙananan Rasha), da kuma iyakar arewa maso gabas da ke kusa da Kharkiv da Sumy a matsayin "Sloboda Ukraine."
A cikin wannan jawabin, Putin ya kori shugaban Bolshevik Vladimir Lenin saboda ba da wani yanki na Rasha ga sabuwar jamhuriyar Socialist ta Ukrainian Soviet a 1922, ƙasashen da a yau suka zama gabashi da kudancin Ukraine (kamar yadda aka nuna a taswira na biyu). Putin ya yi iƙirarin cewa "Rasha ce ta ƙirƙira zamaninta na zamani gaba ɗaya, ko kuma, Bolshevik, Rasha mai ra'ayin gurguzu. Wannan tsari ya fara ne a zahiri bayan juyin juya halin 1917, kuma Lenin da abokansa sun yi shi a hanyar da ta kasance mai tsananin zafi a kan Rasha - ta hanyar rabuwa, raba abin da ke tarihi na kasar Rasha. Babu wanda ya tambayi miliyoyin mutanen da ke zaune a wurin abin da suke tunani."
Putin ya ci gaba da yin Allah wadai da Lenin, wanda "ra'ayoyin abin da ke da nasaba da tsarin tsarin mulkin tarayya da kuma taken 'yancin al'ummomi na 'yancin kai, har zuwa ballewa, an kafa shi a cikin harsashin mulkin Soviet .... Menene ma'anar canjawa zuwa sababbin, sau da yawa kafa ƙungiyoyin gudanarwa ba bisa ka'ida ba - jamhuriyar ƙungiyar - manyan yankuna waɗanda ba su da alaƙa da su? .... Idan ya zo ga makomar tarihi na Rasha da al'ummarta, ka'idodin Lenin na ci gaban ƙasa ... sun kasance mafi muni fiye da kuskure, kamar yadda ake magana. Wannan ya bayyana a fili bayan rugujewar Tarayyar Soviet a 1991…. Soviet Ukraine sakamakon manufofin Bolsheviks ne kuma ana iya kiran shi da kyau 'Vladimir Lenin's Ukraine'.
Don haka a cikin jawabin da ya yi da ke bayyana dalilansa na rashin hankali na mamaye Ukraine bayan kwanaki uku, Putin bai yi shakkar wanzuwar jamhuriyar Soviet ta Ukraine ba, amma ya fi mayar da hankali kan yadda Lenin ya ware yankunan masu magana da Rashanci (ciki har da Donbass) don shiga cikin wannan jamhuriyar. . Lenin dai ya danganta wadancan kasashe da Ukraine ne, domin ya raunana “Babban Chauvinism na Rasha” da ya bayyana a matsayin tushen akidar daular Rasha ta Czarist, da kuma sanya sabuwar Ukraine ta zama mai yawan kabilu da rashin sha’awar samun ‘yancin kai.
Lokacin da Tarayyar Soviet ta gaji daular Rasha bayan juyin juya halin 1917, hangen nesa Lenin ya kasance a matsayin kasar da jamhuriyar kabilanci ke cikin 'yanci tare da juna, kuma ya ba da 'yancin kai ga Poland, Finland, da kasashen Baltic (ko da yake ba Ukraine ba. ). Kamar yadda Putin ya yi nuni da amincewa, Josef Stalin ya yi gaggawar sauya wannan manufar ta cin gashin kai bayan mutuwar Lenin a shekara ta 1924, ta hanyar mayar da jamhuriyar kabilanci mai cin gashin kanta da sunan kadai, kamar yadda yankuna ke mulki daga Moscow kawai.
Kamar yadda Putin ya tuna cikin fushi, Nikita Khrushchev a cikin 1954 ya ba da mafi yawan kabilun Crimean Rasha zuwa Ukraine (wanda kuma aka nuna a taswira na biyu). Kuma ga babban rashin amincewa da Putin, Mikhail Gorbachev ya mayar da hangen nesa na Lenin a ƙarshen 1980s, ta hanyar ba wa al'ummomin kabilanci 'yancin cin gashin kai, aikin da Putin ya zarga da rushewar Tarayyar Soviet a 1991. Putin ya kalli 1991 a cikin fitaccen ruwan tabarau na tarihi a matsayin rugujewar Daular Rasha, wanda ya karkata ga Rashawa miliyan 25 (ko kashi 17 cikin dari na dukkan Rashawa) a wajen iyakokin Tarayyar Rasha. A cikin Ukraine, hade Crimea a cikin 2014 da kuma amincewa da Jamhuriyar Donbass na gabas a 2022 sune matakan farko nasa na mayar da ƙasashen da Rasha ta "rasa" a 1922.
Hadarin hadiye Ukraine gaba daya
Yayin da Putin ya kaddamar da mamayewa, sojojinsa sun shiga gabashin Ukraine daga Rasha da gabashin Donbass, zuwa kudancin Rasha daga Crimea, kuma zuwa Kyiv daga Belarus. Harin nasa makami mai linzami da ta sama sun afkawa wuraren soji da na farar hula a duk fadin kasar. Don haka idan muka kalli Ukraine kawai a matsayin kasa mai hadin kai, da alama Putin yana kan hanyar "canjin mulki," domin ya hambarar da gwamnatin Volodymyr Zelensky, ya mamaye da mulkin kasar baki daya.
Amma a cewar shugaban ƙasar Finland Sauli Niinistö, Putin da kansa musunsa cewa "canjin mulki" shine burinsa a Ukraine. Idan aka yi la’akari da dogon tarihin karya na Putin, tabbas za mu iya ɗaukar duk wani iƙirarin nasa da ɗan gishiri kaɗan. Amma abubuwan da ke cikin ƙasa sun yi daidai da ɗaukar wani yanki na Ukraine kawai, ba duka ƙasar ba.
Idan ka fifita ci gaban kasa na Rasha (a cikin taswirar ta uku) akan jajayen yankin masu magana da Rashanci a taswirar farko, zaku iya ganin cewa kusan gaba ɗaya ci gaban yana cikin yankuna masu magana da Rashanci, waɗanda ke son jefa ƙuri'a ga masu ra'ayin Rashanci. yan siyasa in mafi yawan zabuka kafin Zelensky's 2019 nasara. Baya ga hare-haren ta sama, babu wani ci gaba na kasa ko saukar jiragen sama zuwa yankin yammacin masu magana da harshen Ukrainian ko kuma galibin yankin tsakiyar Ukraine da Rasha da ke hade da juna.
Babban abin da ya rage shi ne gaurayewar babban birnin Kyiv da kansa, wanda sojojin Rasha ke kokarin kewaye ko kamawa. Hare-hare da kawanya Kyiv ya sa sojojin Ukraine sun durkushe a arewa, kuma kama shi zai tilasta wa Zelensky yin magana da cika sharuddan Rasha. Amma wannan ba yana nufin cewa Kyiv za ta kasance cikin dogon lokaci ba. Ko bayan gudun hijira na 'yan makonnin da suka gabata, akalla 'yan Ukraine miliyan biyu ne suka rage a Kyiv. Idan babban birnin kasar ya fadi, da yawa daga cikinsu za su ci gaba da adawa da 'yan mamaya na Rasha a matsayin masu daukar fansa da kuma tsararrun 'yan tawayen birane.
Wannan mamayar dai ya isa ya zama wani zagon kasa ga Rasha, har ma Putin ya fahimci cewa tashin hankalin na Ukraine zai mayar da kasar cikin wani hali, idan aka tuna da shan kashi da 'yan tawayen Mujahedin suka yi a shekarar 1989 da Moscow ta yi a Afganistan. Kamar yadda kwarewar Amurkawa ta nuna a Bagadaza da Kabul, ko kuma kwarewar Isra'ila a Beirut, rike wani babban yanki na birni a tunkarar 'yan tawaye babban kalubale ne. Yana iya zama da sauƙi a kame babban birnin ƙasar, amma hakan ba zai sa ƙasar gaba ɗaya ta fada hannun mamaya ba.
Idan da gaske ne Rasha ta kuduri aniyar karbe iko da dukkan Ukraine, to kuma dole ne ta fuskanci turjiya mai karfi a yankin Galicia da ke yammacin Lviv. Galicia wani bangare ne na yakin duniya na biyu a Poland, kuma a lokacin yakin duniya na biyu shi ne kakkarfar Rundunar Sojin Ukrainian (UPA), wadda ta yi yaki da Soviets da maraba da mamaya na Nazi, har sai da suka gano cewa Reich na Jamus yana son filin noma ga mazauna fiye da yadda suke so abokan tarayya. 'yan tsana. UPA juriya, a hulda da CIA, ya ci gaba da yakar Soviets tsawon shekaru bakwai bayan kawo karshen yakin, har zuwa 1952.
Yamma mai nisa har yanzu shi ne cibiyar kungiyoyin masu tsattsauran ra'ayi na Ukraine, wadanda suka yi maraba da mayaka daga kasashen yamma don samun horo. Matsakaicin iyakar Poland zai ba da damar isar da makaman NATO a asirce, kamar yadda mujahedin na Afganistan ya ci gaba da samun layukan samar da makaman Amurka daga Pakistan. (Kuma kamar mujahedin, yamma na iya yin nadama daga baya busawa daga makamai mayaka na dama wadanda ba su da kimar dimokradiyya.)
Juriya a tsakiyar gauraye
Juriya ga mamayar Rasha kuma za ta fito ne daga yankin da ke gauraye na tsakiyar Ukraine (a cikin orange a taswirar farko), inda ba kawai masu magana da harshen Ukrainian da masu magana da Rashanci ke gauraya tare ba, amma da yawa suna magana da yaren matasan da aka sani da Surzhyk. Kamar a cikin Bosnia ko Iraki, ba zai yuwu a juya irin wannan taswirar ƙabilanci na gauraye al'ummomi, iyalai, da daidaikun mutane zuwa "tsabta" iyakokin siyasa ba tare da tashin hankali ba.
"Ukraine" a zahiri yana nufin "ƙasar kan iyaka," kuma yana da kyau a karanta classic Gloria Anzaldúa. Borderlands / La Frontera don fahimtar haɓakar haɓakar harsuna iri ɗaya a cikin Amurka Kudu maso Yamma (tsohon arewacin Mexico). Watakila ita ma ta yi bayanin hadadden kan iyakar Ukraine. Nawa tushen iyali a kasar Hungary sun sanar da ni yadda tarihi ke cike da rikici da hadin gwiwa tsakanin al'ummomi.
Taswirar harshen Ukraine yana daɗaɗaɗaɗaɗaɗawa saboda yawancin ƙabilun Ukrain da suka ayyana kansu a zahiri suna magana da Rashanci a matsayin harshensu na farko, kamar yadda yawancin Amurkawa na Mexico ke magana da Ingilishi a gida. Hakazalika, galibin Irish, Scots, da Welsh suna magana da yaren mai mulkin mallaka na Ingilishi a gida, maimakon nasu yaren Celtic, amma yawancinsu har yanzu masu kishin kasa ne. 'Yan kabilar Rasha da aka gano kansu suna da kusan kashi 17-22% na al'ummar Ukraine, kuma suna da rinjaye ne kawai a cikin Crimea da kuma gabashin Donbass masu son ballewa.
A sauran Ukraine, duk da haka, masu magana da Rasha (duka 'yan kabilar Ukrain da Rasha) ba su yi marhabin da mamayewar Putin ba. Kamar Amurkawa a Iraki, watakila Putin ya yi tunanin za a maraba da sojojinsa da furanni da tutoci ja-fari da shudi, amma a maimakon haka an tarbe su da gurneti da makaman kare-dangi. A cikin zaben 2019, Zelensky ya karbi wani mafi girman yawan kuri'u daga masu magana da Rashanci fiye da na masu magana da Ukrainian, a cikin tsawatawa ga masu tsaurin ra'ayi a bangarorin biyu.
Ko da gidan talabijin na kasar Rasha ba zai iya kera wani wurin da 'yan kabilar Rasha ke murna da sojojin Putin ba, wanda ya yi sauki a samu a Crimea shekaru takwas da suka gabata. Hasali ma, yawancin fararen hula da aka kashe a yakin ya zuwa yanzu, masu magana da harshen Rasha ne. Kuma a cikin Rasha kanta, saboda sojoji da kuma fararen hula Ba a riga an riga an riga an yi yaƙi ba, Putin na iya rasa zukatansu da tunaninsu kuma.
Rarraba yana cikin katunan
Tare da cin nasarar duk Ukraine daga teburin, Putin na iya har yanzu yana tunanin cizon "Novorossiya" daga sauran Ukraine. Ya ba da shawarar raba Ukraine har zuwa 2014, lokacin da yake ba da shawara ba ga Firayim Ministan Poland Donald Tusk cewa Poland ta dauki Galicia. Tsohon babban kwamandan kawancen NATO na Turai, Adm. James G. Stavridis mai ritaya, tabbatar cewa "mafi yuwuwar wasan ƙarshe, abin baƙin ciki shine, yanki ne na Ukraine. Putin zai dauki kudu maso gabashin kasar, kuma 'yan kabilar Rasha za su yi tafiya a can. Sauran al'ummar, masu rinjayen Ukrainian, za su ci gaba da kasancewa kasa mai 'yanci."
Ci gaban sojan Rasha (a cikin taswirar ta uku) a fili yana ƙoƙarin ƙirƙirar wata hanya daga gabashin Donbass zuwa Crimea, gami da mummunan tashin bama-bamai na tashar tashar jiragen ruwa na Mariupol a Tekun Azov, mahimmin hanyar haɗi tsakanin Donbass da Crimea.
Da yake tafiya yamma tare da bakin tekun Black Sea, Rasha ta mamaye birnin Kherson na Kogin Dnieper, kuma an ce tana ƙoƙarin kafa "Jamhuriyar Jama'ar Kherson, "mai kama da Donetsk da Lugansk "jamhuriyar jama'a" da ta gane a gabashin Donbass. Mazauna birnin suna da jarumtaka zanga-zanga mamaya da makircin ballewa. Shirye-shiryen Rasha don "'yancin kai" na Kherson ya haifar da tambaya: idan burin Putin shine da gaske ya ci nasara da mulkin Ukraine nan ba da jimawa ba, me yasa wannan shirin wasan zai hada da raba wasu yankuna daga Ukraine? Kherson gambit na iya zama ƙarin tabbaci cewa rarrabuwa shine wasansa na ƙarshe.
Yayin da hare-haren na Rasha ke ci gaba da nisa zuwa yamma, yanzu yana kewaye da Mykolaiv. Idan wannan babban birnin ya fadi, na gaba da za a yi niyya shi ne Odesa, hedkwatar sojojin ruwa na Ukraine. Ci wannan muhimmin birni mai tashar jiragen ruwa zai kammala hanyar yamma zuwa Transnistria, wata ƙabilar Rasha da ta ayyana 'yancin kai daga Moldova mai magana da harshen Romania a cikin 1992, kuma ta karbi bakuncin "masu zaman lafiya" na Rasha tun daga lokacin. A wannan lokacin, mafarkin Putin na "Novorossiya" yana haɗa gabas da kudancin Ukraine masu magana da Rasha (kamar yadda aka nuna akan taswira na huɗu) zai cika.
Ƙungiyar na iya zama tarin tarin "jamhuriyar jama'a" tare da bakin tekun Black Sea (wanda ba daidai ba ne mai arziki a cikin ajiyar iskar gas), da Donbass mai nisa, kuma watakila ma "Svoboda Ukraine" tare da iyakar arewa maso gabas. Hakanan za'a iya haɗa swath zuwa cikin ƙasa guda da Rasha ta mamaye wacce ta ayyana abin da ake kira "'yancin kai" kuma Moscow ta amince da ita. Ko kuma ana iya shigar da yankin gaba daya zuwa Rasha kamar yadda Crimea ta kasance a cikin 2014, watakila bayan zaben raba gardama.
Ko kuma Putin na iya samun wani tsari mai mahimmanci a zuciya, wanda ke da misali, wanda ya haɗa da tabbatar da amincewar NATO don rabuwa. Abin da ya faru shi ne a yakin 1992-95 a Bosnia, wanda ya hada Bosniak (Musulman Bosnia) da Sabiyawa da Croat. Kamar yadda wargajewar Tarayyar Soviet ta bar Rashawa da yawa a wajen Rasha, ballewar Yugoslavia ta bar Sabiyawa da yawa a wajen Serbia, ciki har da Croatia da Bosnia. Amurka ta yi adawa da tsarkake kabilanci daga Sabiyawan Orthodox masu haɗin kai na Rasha, amma sun sauƙaƙe tsarkake kabilanci daga abokanta na Croat na Katolika.
Yarjejeniyar Dayton ta 1995 ta kawo karshen yakin Bosnia, ta hanyar raba kasar zuwa jamhuriyar Jumhuriyar Srpska da ke karkashin mulkin Sabiya, da Tarayyar Musulmi da Croat. "Dayton" ya yi nuni ga birnin Ohio kusa da Wright-Patterson Air Base inda aka gudanar da tattaunawar, wanda Shugaba Bill Clinton ya shirya. A sakamakon haka, Clinton da NATO sun yi watsi da tsarkakewar kabilanci a lokacin yakin a bangarorin biyu, ta hanyar amincewa da iyakar siyasa "tsabta" tsakanin sabbin jamhuriyar kabilun biyu.
Yayin da Bosnia-Herzegovina ke zama ƙasa mai cin gashin kanta, ainihin ikon biyu ne ke amfani da shi. de a zahiri shine kabilanci statlets a cikinsa. Tsarin girgizar kasa na barazanar rugujewa a duk lokacin da wani shugaban Sabiya mai kishin addini ya yi barazanar ballewa ya shiga Sabiya. Kamar yadda rabe-raben Birtaniya Indiya da Falasdinu suka dade suna nunawa, rarrabuwar kai ba kasafai ake kawo zaman lafiya ba, kuma galibi suna kafa fagen yaki na shekaru da dama. Amma ana iya jarabtar Putin ya sanya wani yanki na Ukraine kamar Dayton a kan tebur, tunda Amurka da NATO sun riga sun goyi bayan wannan tsarin sasantawa a Bosnia. Hakanan Amurka ta kula da irin wannan de a zahiri shine ɓangarorin cikin gida na Iraqi da aka mamaye zuwa yankunan Kurdawa, Larabawa Sunni, da Larabawa Shi'a.
Ukraine ba tare da "Novorossiya"
Idan "Novorossiya" ya fito daga cikin maelstrom a matsayin yanki na Rasha wanda ke mulkin mallaka, menene zai faru da sauran Ukraine, yawancin yankunan yammacin Ukraine da tsakiya? A wasu hanyoyi, yakin Putin ya kunna annabci mai cika kansa, wanda ya haifar da mai ra'ayin dama, mai goyon bayan NATO na Ukraine wanda ya yi kama da shi.
Ko Zelensky ya kasance a ofis ko a'a, wannan "rump Ukraine" zai iya zama da yawa gaba zuwa dama, taurin yaki, kuma elevating tsayin daka na tsagerun 'yan tawaye, irin su Battalion Azov. (Maganin ra'ayi na iya zama cewa 'yan bindiga na dama ba su da ikon yin ta'addanci, don haka wasu "jaruman Yukren" sun shafe su. tabbas sun haɗa da tsaka-tsakin Ukraine.
Me yasa Putin zai jure haifar da rudani na Ukraine wanda har ma ya fi mutuƙar kashe Rasha? Amsar geostrategic ita ce Novorossiya nasa zai samar da akalla karamin "buffer" tsakanin NATO da Rasha. Amsata da ta fi zagi ita ce maƙiyin Yukren mai dorewa shine ainihin abin da Putin yake so da buƙata. Kamar yadda masu tsattsauran ra'ayi na Ukraine da na Rasha suka karfafa sakonnin kiyayya da juna, ta'addancin Putin da fadada NATO sun kawar da sakonnin juna na karfin soja. Haƙiƙa suna buƙatar junansu, don haifar da tsoro a tsakanin mutanensu.
Kamar yawancin shugabannin yammacin duniya, babban burin Putin shi ne ya ci gaba da kasancewa a kan karagar mulki, musamman ta fuskar matsalolin tattalin arziki a cikin gida, kuma hanya mai kyau ta ko da yaushe ita ce tayar da tsoro da kyamar baki a kasashen waje. Yukren mai cin gashin kansa yana fushi da fushi zai ba Putin damar ci gaba da tsoratar da mutanensa da "NATO da Nazis," da kuma amfani da raunin tarihi na Rasha da ke da alaƙa da barazanar daga yamma. Idan ba tare da abokin gaba a waje ba, bazai iya kula da iko a gida ba. Don haka ko da yake da wuya rarrabuwar kawuna ba za ta sanya 'yan Ukrain ba, yana iya zama sakamakon da yake bukata ya ci gaba da mulki a kan Rashawa.
Zoltán Grossman memba ne na baiwa a fannin Geography da Nazarin 'Yan Asalin a Kwalejin Jiha ta Evergreen a Olympia, Washington, yana karatu da koyarwa a tsaka-tsakin kabilanci, soja, da albarkatun ƙasa. Ya koyar da darussa kuma ya kirkiro taswira akan Rasha da Gabashin Tsakiyar Turai, kuma yana da tushen iyali a kasar Hungary. Gidan yanar gizon sa yana a https://sites.evergreen.edu/zoltan
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