Hoto daga Petrenko Andriy/Shutterstock
Ɗaya daga cikin maɓalli don kawo karshen yakin a Ukraine na iya kasancewa a cikin wani wuri marar tsammani: Belarus. A ranar 28 ga watan Fabrairu, jami'an leken asirin Ukraine sun yi gargadin cewa sojojin Belarus za su shiga cikin mamayar Rasha, amma bayanan sirrin Amurka sun karyata rahotannin, kuma sojojin ba su ketare iyaka ba. Yanzu muna iya sanin dalilin da yasa: babban rashin amincewa a cikin sojojin Belarusiya.
Farko kadan baya. Gagarumin zanga-zangar neman dimokradiyya ta girgiza gwamnatin Alexander Lukashenko a shekara ta 2020, bayan da ya saci zaben shugaban 'yan adawa Svetlana Tikhanovskaya. Lukashenko ya yi kira ga Putin da ya tura sojojin Rasha don murkushe masu zanga-zangar, kuma barazanar da ta tilasta Tikhanovskaya ya tsere zuwa Lithuania. Wasu jami'an soji da matasa masu shekaru suma sun tafi a lokacin. Kame wani jirgin saman farar hula da Lukashenko ya yi a bara ya sa akasarin kasashen suka soke duk wani tashin jirage na zuwa babban birnin Minsk. A baya-bayan nan dai ya kyale kasar Rasha ta yi amfani da kasar Belarus a matsayin wurin tunkarar mamayar Ukraine.
Daya daga cikin manyan mashawartan Tikhanovskaya, Franak Viacorka, ya tabbatar da cewa Putin ya shirya wa sojojin Belarus su shiga cikin mamayewarsa (wanda Minsk ya musanta). Sai dai shirin ya ci tura sakamakon murabus din da wasu manyan jami'an soji suka yi, wadanda suka tsere daga kasar suka tuntubi 'yan adawa da ke gudun hijira. Bugu da ƙari, ɗaruruwan matasa Belarusian na daftarin shekarun suma sun tsere zuwa kan iyakokin da aka rufe, wanda ke da "haɗari da tsada."
Viacorka ya yi tsokaci, “Mun san cewa akwai tabarbarewar tarbiyya a tsakanin jami’an sojoji. Bugu da kari, akwai matukar tauyewa a tsakanin sojojin da aka yi wa aikin, wadanda ke tserewa kan iyakokin kasar gaba daya zuwa duk inda za a yi, ciki har da Rasha, Kazakhstan, da kuma kasashen Baltic.”
Ya ci gaba da cewa, “A ‘yan kwanakin nan, mun ga matsin lamba daga kwamandojin rundunonin soji na kada su shiga cikin fadan da ake yi a Ukraine. Akwai jami’an da suka dauki hutun jinya, wasu kuma sun nemi a kawo karshen kwangilolin da suke yi da sojoji, har ma da biyan kudaden da suke kashewa a aikin soja. Muna magana ne kan dubban daloli.”
A cewar Viacorka, "Babban matsala a gare su ita ce, ba su da wata hanya mai amfani ta barin Belarus. A da, za su iya tashi zuwa Georgia, amma yanzu an soke dukkan jiragen da za su tashi daga Belarus na tsawon watanni shida masu zuwa. Babu tashin jirage zuwa yammacin Turai, kuma yana da matukar wahala a samu jiragen zuwa Istanbul. Don haka hanya daya tilo ta sauya sheka ita ce ketare kan iyaka da kasashe makwabta ba bisa ka'ida ba. Yawancin jami'ai har yanzu ba sa son yin kasada da wannan matakin."
Viacorka ya kammala, "Belarus ta samar da kayayyakin aikin soja ga Rashawa, amma har yanzu sassan Belarusiya ba su shiga yankin Ukraine ba. Haka kuma, muna ganin an mayar da runfunan da aka jibge kusa da kan iyaka da Ukraine zuwa sansanonin su. Da alama an canza shawarar shigar da sojojin Belarus a cikin fada sakamakon matsin lamba daga manyan jami'an soja da kuma kin amincewa da sojoji masu sauki na yin fada."
A cikin wani ci gaba mai ban mamaki, Manjo Janar Viktor Gulevich, babban hafsan hafsoshin sojan kasar, ya rubuta wasikar murabus ga ministan tsaron Belarus Viktor Khrenin, inda ya yi magana game da rashin son shiga cikin mamaya. Wasikar (wanda tsohon mataimakin ministan tsaron Ukraine Alexander Nosov ya buga a yanar gizo) ya ce: “Gudanar da aikin bayyanawa tare da kwamandojin rundunonin soji bai haifar da sakamako ba. Ina da kwarin guiwar ganin cewa maye gurbin kwamandojin wadannan rundunonin soji, wadanda suka kasa shirya kafa kungiyoyi a kasa, ba zai ba mu sakamakon da muke bukata ba. Dangane da abin da ke sama, ina neman shawarar ku game da amincewa da murabus na. An Labari game da wasiƙar, wacce Minsk ta musanta, tana cikin London kullum Express (3-7-22).
Viacorka ta hira Ya kasance a wannan rana a cikin manyan Tel Aviv kullum Isra'ila Hayom (3-7-22), wanda kuma ya ruwaito cewa "yawan mayakan Belarusian - daidai da kusan sassan soja biyar - sun shiga cikin Ukrainians don yakar Rasha. Yunkurin 'bangaranci' na masu adawa da mulkin Belarus ya baza jama'arta a duk fadin kasar don dakile tura sojojin Rasha a cikin Belarus. "
Labarin ya kara da cewa "Kungiyoyin kare hakkin bil'adama sun bayar da rahoton cewa an umurci maza 'yan Belarus masu shekaru 18 zuwa 58 da su yi rajista da wuraren daukar ma'aikata da kansu tare da barin wayoyinsu na salula da fasfo ga hukumomi don yin wahalar barin jihar. Rahotanni sun bayyana cewa, ana bukatar su bayyana a ofisoshin daukar ma’aikata tare da ‘yan uwa, inda aka ce za a hukunta su idan ‘yan’uwansu ba su zo ba a lokacin da aka kira su don yakar kasarsu.
Don haka hanyar samun zaman lafiya a Ukraine na iya wucewa ta Minsk, amma ba saboda yarjejeniyar Minsk na 2014-15 tsakanin Rasha da Ukraine (wanda ya mutu lokacin da Putin ya mamaye Ukraine). Idan aka sake barkewar zanga-zangar adawa da mulkin Lukashenko, a wannan karon kila da goyon bayan 'yan jam'iyya ko ma sojoji da suka sauya sheka, mai yiwuwa ba zai iya sake yin kira ga Putin da ya taimaka ba, yayin da sojojin Rasha suka yi kaca-kaca a Ukraine. Watakila har yanzu ba zai yiwu Rashawa su hambarar da Putin daga kan karagar mulki ba, amma tuni 'yan Belarus suka kusa korar karamin abokin aikinsa Lukashenko, kuma mai yiyuwa ne su sake yin hakan.
Tare da dukkan hankalin Rasha kan kaddamar da farmaki a cikin Ukraine, kusan ba a yi watsi da batun kare Belarus kanta ba. Idan rashin amincewar soji ko kuma sabon tawaye ya raba hankalin Lukashenko, sojojin Ukraine na iya tunanin kaddamar da wani mummunan hari kan yankunan da sojojin Rasha ke shiryawa, ko ma mara baya ga boren Belarusiya. Bisa lafazin Reuters (3/10/22), Lukashenko a zahiri ya gaya wa ma'aikatar tsaronsa cewa dole ne sojojin Belarus su "hana duk wani yunƙuri - mai yiwuwa da sojojin Ukraine - na yanke layin samar da kayayyaki na Rasha da kuma kai farmaki kan 'yan Rasha daga baya,'" a fili yana nufin cikin Belarus. kanta.
Idan irin wannan juyin juya hali a Belarus ya yi nasara, zai iya zama mai canza wasa ga Ukraine. Watakila sabuwar gwamnati a Minsk za ta umurci sojojin Rasha da su fice daga kasar, tare da hana Putin gabansa na arewacin Ukraine. Ko da Putin ba zai yarda ya dauki duka Ukraine da Belarus a lokaci guda ba. Korar Lukashenko zai zama alamar gargaɗi mai walƙiya ga Putin cewa zai kasance na gaba.
Kamar yadda a labarin kasa, Zan iya yin hasashe cewa sabuwar gwamnati a Minsk za ta kuma fadada zaɓuɓɓukan geopolitical da ake samu a yankin. Yana da matukar shakku kan cewa Belarus za ta nemi zama wani bangare na NATO, tare da yin kasadar mayar da martani daga Moscow, don haka a maimakon haka za ta iya ayyana tsaka-tsaki, ba tare da izinin NATO ko sojojin Rasha ba. Da karin tabbaci da tsaro a kan iyakarsa ta arewa, da kuma fuskantar mummunar mamayar Rasha, shugaban Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky zai iya watsi da burinsa na shiga kungiyar tsaro ta NATO, kuma ya amince da shiga tsakani a matsayin wani bangare na sasantawa.
A wannan yanayin, Belarus, Ukraine, da (riga tsaka tsaki) Moldova za su samar da wani yanki mai tsaka-tsaki tsakanin NATO da Rasha, wanda zai iya haifar da kwanciyar hankali a Gabashin Turai. Za mu iya fata kawai, amma ko menene sakamakon, ana iya samun damar kawo karshen yakin Ukraine a manyan biranen ban da Kyiv da Moscow.
Zoltán Grossman memba ne na baiwa a fannin Geography da Nazarin 'Yan Asalin a Kwalejin Jiha ta Evergreen a Olympia, Washington, yana koyarwa a tsaka-tsakin kabilanci, soja, da albarkatun ƙasa. Ya koyar da kwasa-kwasai da taswirori a Gabashin Tsakiyar Turai, kuma yana da tushen iyali a kasar Hungary. Gidan yanar gizon sa yana a https://sites.evergreen.edu/zoltan
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Bada Tallafi