[Le ndaba iyingxenye yochungechunge lwe-ZNet Classics. Kathathu ngeviki sizophinda sithumele indatshana esicabanga ukuthi ibalulekile ngokungapheli. Lena yashicilelwa okokuqala ngoDisemba 1, 1998.]
Lesi yisihloko sokuqala ochungechungeni lwezingxenye ezintathu mayelana Nenkinga Yomnotho Womhlaba ekhona njengamanje.
Phakathi kwezinhlelo zezomnotho ubungxiwankulu kunesiguli esicindezelekile ngokwengqondo: ukujabula, ukuba nethemba okungalawuleki, nenjabulo—okulandelwa ubumnyama, ukungabi naluhlelo, nokucindezeleka. Kodwa kungakhathaliseki ukuthi umjikelezo uphindwa kaningi kangakanani isiguli sihlala sikholelwa ukuthi i-boom yakamuva izohlala ingunaphakade, bese sizizwa siyisiwula futhi lapho ibhamuza liqhuma. Futhi kungakhathaliseki ukuthi isiguli sibuyela kaningi kangakanani ekuziphatheni okuhlanyayo lapho sithathwa imithi, isikhungo sezomnotho “sodokotela bengqondo” ekugcineni sivumela isiguli ukuba siphucwe umuthi ngesikhathi “sokuphakama”—sikhulula umnotho osuchichima emikhawulweni yenqubomgomo—kuphela ukuphikelela. ekubuyiseleni isiguli emithini— ukuphinda kusetshenziswe ukuvikelwa kwenqubomgomo okudingekayo—lapho isiguli esingalashwanga “siphahlazeka” nakanjani.
I-Boom Yakamuva
Iqiniso liwukuthi ayikho ingxenye ye-capitalism-depressive boom and bust cycle "enempilo." Njengamabhomu amaningi onxiwankulu, izinzuzo zenkululeko yomhlaba wonke ngeminyaka yawo-1980 kanye nawo-1990 kwakungeyona yonke into eyadalelwa ukuba yikho. Eqinisweni, abantu abaningi emhlabeni babesesimweni esibi kakhulu kwezomnotho ekupheleni kwentuthuko yakamuva kunalokho ababeyikho lapho kuqala—okungukuthi, nangaphambi kokuba umfutho ophakeme owedlulele uguqule isimo esibucayi somnotho womhlaba ka-1997-98. Kungenzeka kanjani lokhu ubuza? Satshelwa ukuthi “umnotho womhlaba ukhule ngamaphesenti amathathu ngonyaka ngeminyaka yawo-3 namaphesenti amabili engxenyeni yokuqala yawo-1980,” nokuthi “iminotho yabantu abahola kancane naphakathi nendawo yakhula ngokushesha, okulinganiselwa ukuthi yakhula ngamaphesenti angu-2 ngawo-1990 namaphesenti amahlanu. ngawo-3.4” (iBhange Lomhlaba, 1980). Saqinisekiswa ngokuthi “ukukhula kwezohwebo kusuka ekukhuleni kokukhululeka kwezohwebo okuhambisana nokukhula kwezimali ezizimele kanye nokudidiyelwa kwezimali,” kanye “nokwenziwa kwangaphakathi kwangasese kanye nokuhlakazwa okuqhubekayo kwemithethonqubo nokulawula” kukhiqize igagasi lomnotho lomhlaba elikhulayo ukuphakamisa zonke izikebhe ngaphandle kwezikebhe ezingakulungele ulwandle (iBhange Lomhlaba, 5). Futhi selulekwe ukuthi njengoba amaphesenti angu-1990 emindeni yaseMelika manje engabanikazi bamasheya, ukwanda okumangalisayo kwemakethe yamasheya yase-US kule minyaka eyishumi edlule kusabalalise izinzuzo ezinkulu kabanzi.
Okokuqala, ukukhiqizwa komhlaba kwakhula ngokushesha kakhulu esikhathini esingaphambi kokuhlolwa okukhulu kokungalawuleki nokuhwebelana kwembulunga yonke. Okwesibili, inani labantu emhlabeni lakhula kanye ne-GDP kusukela ngo-1980 kuya ku-1995. Nakuba i-GDP yomhlaba ikhula ngesilinganiso sonyaka esicishe sibe ngamaphesenti angu-2.5, inani labantu emhlabeni likhule ngamaphesenti angu-1.6 ngonyaka ngesikhathi esifanayo, okushiya ukwanda okungaphansi kwephesenti elilodwa ngonyaka kumuntu ngamunye. GDP ngalesi sikhathi. Okwesithathu, i-GDP idume kabi ngokulinganisa izinzuzo ezivela emisebenzini yezomnotho. Lapho ukwehla kwenani lemali ekhiqiziwe nengokwemvelo kususwa, futhi lapho ukucekelwa phansi kwemvelo kubalwa ngakho, lokho okubonakala kuwukwenyuka okuncane kwaminyaka yonke kwezomnotho kumuntu ngamunye kuba ukwehla kwesilinganiso sempilo esimeme ngonyaka phakathi nesikhathi sethu sakamuva “sokuhle. izikhathi.” Okwesine, ukulungisa okubangelwa “i-green accounting”—okusebenzisa impatho efanayo emalini yemvelo njengemali eyenziwe ngabantu, nasezinsizeni zemvelo ngokuphathelene nezinye izimpahla namasevisi—akubaleli izinguquko ezimbi ekusatshalalisweni kwemali engenayo noma ukwanda kwenani lemali engenayo. ukungavikeleki kwezomnotho. Nokho, kanye nesivinini esandayo sokucekelwa phansi kwemvelo, ukwanda kokungalingani kwemali engenayo nengcebo, nokwanda kokungavikeleki kwezomnotho kwakuyizici ezibaluleke kakhulu “zeminyaka emihle” esisanda kuyijabulela.
Isabelo semali engenayo yamaphesenti angu-5 aphezulu emindeni yase-US yenyuka isuka kumaphesenti angu-16.6 ayo yonke imali engenayo ngo-1973 yaya kumaphesenti angu-21.2 ngo-1994. Amaphesenti angu-20 ehle esuka kumaphesenti angu-43.6 aya kumaphesenti angu-49.1. Okubi nakakhulu, akukona nje kuphela ukuthi ingxenye yemali engenayo iwile phakathi kwengxenye ephansi yemali engenayo e-US, kodwa iholo labo eliphelele lehlile futhi. Abagcini nje ngokuba nokuncane uma kuqhathaniswa nalaba abangenhla, kodwa banakho okuncane uma kuqhathaniswa nalokho ababenakho esikhathini esidlule, ngokwabo. Isilinganiso semali engenayo yamaphesenti angu-20 ampofu kakhulu sehle ngamaphesenti angu-4.2 phakathi kuka-3.5 no-20 kanti eyesibili amaphesenti angu-2.7 ampofu kakhulu yehla ngamaphesenti angu-1973, kuyilapho leyo yamaphesenti angu-1994 aphezulu yenyuka ngamaphesenti angu-20, futhi eyabaphezulu yamaphesenti amahlanu yenyuka ngo. amaphesenti angu-3.8. Izibalo ezibizwa ngokuthi i-Gini coefficient isilinganiso esisetshenziswa kakhulu sokungalingani. Kunoma yikuphi ukusatshalaliswa ukulingana okuphelele kukhiqiza i-Gini coefficient of zero kuyilapho ukungalingani okuphelele kukhiqiza i-Gini coefficient eyodwa. I-Gini coefficient yokulinganisa ukungalingani kwemali engenayo e-US ikhuphuke isuka ku-.20 yaya ku-.27.2 phakathi kuka-5 no-44.2 - ngaphezu kwamaphesenti angu-419 okungalingani.
Ukwanda kokungalingani kwengcebo kwakumangalisa nakakhulu phakathi “nezikhathi ezimnandi.” Ingxenye yesamba sengcebo ephethwe yiphesenti elilodwa eliphezulu icishe yaphindeka kabili phakathi kuka-1 no-1976. Lokhu ikakhulukazi kwakungenxa yokuthi iphesenti elilodwa eliphezulu labacebi bathola amaphesenti angu-1992 engqikithi yenzuzo engcebo phakathi kuka-1 no-62 kuyilapho abangamaphesenti angu-1983 abaphansi bathola oyedwa kuphela. amaphesenti omcebo omusha ngaleso sikhathi. Okubi nakakhulu, umcebo ojwayelekile wamaphesenti angama-1989 abanikazi bengcebo empeleni wehlile. Khonamanjalo, i-avareji yamaholo angempela e-US yehle ngamaphesenti ayi-80 phakathi kuka-1 no-40 naphezu kokukhula okuqhubekayo kokukhiqizwa kwabasebenzi, kanti ukwehla okukhulu kwenzeka kubakaki abancane beholo. Ngokuphambene, amazinga enzuzo ezinkampani e-US ngo-11 afinyelela izinga lawo eliphakeme kakhulu kusukela le datha yaqoqwa okokuqala ngo-1973. Futhi nakuba kuyiqiniso ukuthi amaphesenti angu-1993 emindeni yase-US manje inamasheya, njengoba iningi liphethe okuncane kakhulu, ikakhulukazi ngo-1996(K) kanye namanye ama-akhawunti omhlalaphansi, amaphesenti angu-1959 aphezulu emindeni yabela amaphesenti angama-43 enzuzo yemakethe yamasheya kusukela ngo-401.
Eminyakeni emibili edlule umehluko phakathi kwezibalo ezisemthethweni ezikhombisa ukukhula komnotho okuqinile kanye nezinhlolovo eziveza ukuthi iningi labantu baseMelika besaba kakhulu ikusasa labo lezomnotho okuthi noma ngasiphi isikhathi selokhu kwaba nokuWohloka Okukhulu Kwezomnotho, kwadala uchungechunge lwezingxenye eziyisikhombisa ezimangazayo New York Times ngokuthi “ukwehlisa izinga.” I Izikhathi' uchungechunge lwavusa isithakazelo esikhulu kangangokuthi amanye ama-dailies amakhulu athanda The Washington Post futhi The Los Angeles Times bajahe ukuphrinta okwabo. Njengoba ukudilizwa kwanda kusuka kubasebenzi bekhola eluhlaza kuya kubaphathi abaphakathi futhi kusuka ezimbonini zokugqwala kuya ezinsizeni zezezimali, njengoba isibalo sabantu baseMelika abangenawo umshwalense wezempilo sikhuphuke safinyelela ezigidini ezingama-43.4, njengoba imisebenzi yesikhashana neyesikhashana ithathela indawo imisebenzi yesikhathi esigcwele unomphela, njengekhono eliphansi, imisebenzi ehola kancane ithathelwe indawo yamakhono aphezulu, imisebenzi ehola kakhulu, njengoba amahora omndeni ngamunye ekhuphuka ngenkathi iningi lemiholo yomndeni imile, umehluko phakathi kokukhuphuka kwenhlanhla yezomnotho kwabambalwa kanye nezimo zomnotho eziwohlokayo kwabaningi ekugcineni kwase kungenzeki ngisho nakubantu. NY Times kanye nabahamba nabo ukuthi bangazinaki ngokuphelele. Kodwa eminye iminyaka emibili yokuntuleka kwemisebenzi ephansi kanye nokwehla kwamandla emali, kuhlangene nokusebenza okumangalisayo emakethe yamasheya yase-US kwavumela abezindaba ukuthi bathathe indawo yezindaba eziphathelene nezinhlekelele zomndeni kusukela ekunciphiseni ngezibuyekezo ezijabulisayo zezimakethe zamasheya, ukuthulisa ngempumelelo insimbi ye-alamu. Muva nje, njengoba amafu ebonakale emkhathini wezomnotho wamazwe ngamazwe asongela ibhamuza laseWall Street lapho ochwepheshe bezobuchwephesha sebeqalile ukuzibuza ukuthi ngabe kuwukuhlakanipha yini ukuziba izixwayiso zangaphambili.
Akukhona nje kuphela ukuthi i-boom yayilinganiselwe kakhulu kwabacebe kakhulu e-US, ayizange inabele kuzo zonke izifunda zomhlaba. Osomnotho u-Walter Park no-David Brat base-American University babale ukuthi i-Gini coefficient ye-GDP ngomuntu ngamunye emazweni angu-91 idatha yawo etholakalayo yenyuka kancane phakathi naso sonke isikhathi. Ngokuqinisekile iLatin America ayizange ihlanganyele entuthukweni phakathi “neshumi leminyaka elalahleka” lawo-1980 njengoba lawo mazwe ahlupheka ngenxa “yenkinga yezikweletu” zawo. Lokhu kukhula kwedlulele eMpumalanga Ephakathi naseNyakatho Afrika njengoba amanani kawoyela ehla. Idlule ngokuphelele emazweni ase-Afrika eseningizimu yeSahara njengoba izimo zabo zohwebo ziba zimbi kanye nenhloko-dolobha yabo yemvelo. Ngisho nangaphambi kwesiphithiphithi sakamuva eRussia, ukudlondlobala akuzange kubavuze labo abamukela ubunxiwankulu eMpumalanga Yurophu nasemazweni ayengaphansi kweSoviet Union ngemva “kokuwa kodonga.” Kufakwe ohlwini ngokwe-alfabhethi, izinga lokukhula elimaphakathi lonyaka laleyo minotho kusukela ngo-1990 kuya ku-1995—ngaphambi inhlekelele yakamuva “ezimakethe ezisafufusa”—yayimi kanje: I-Armenia: -21.2%, i-Azerbaijan: -20.2%, Belarus: -9.3%, Bulgaria: -4.3%, Czech Republic: -2.6%, Estonia: -9.2%, I-Georgia: -26.9%, iHungary: -1.0%, Kazakstan: -11.9%, Kyrgyz Republic: -14.7%, Latvia: -13.7%, Lithuania: -9.7%, Poland: +2.4%, Romania: -1.4%, isiRashiya I-Federation: -9.8%, i-Slovak Republic: -2.8%, i-Tajikistan: -18.1%, i-Turkmenistan: -i-10.6%, i-Ukraine: -14.3%, i-Uzbekistan: -4.4% (iBhange Lomhlaba, 1997).
Icala laseRussia laziwa kakhulu. Amazinga okungasebenzi awasho lutho njengoba izigidi zabasebenzi abaqashwe ngokusemthethweni azikhokhelwa. Kodwa siyazi ukuthi iningi liwele ebumpofu, futhi iminyaka yokuphila kwabesilisa yehlile isuka eminyakeni engama-65.6 yaya kwengama-57 eminyakeni emihlanu kuphela—ngisho nangaphambi kokuwa kwakamuva kwe-ruble, ukwehluleka kukahulumeni kanye nezinkampani ezizimele, kanye nokumiswa kwesikweletu se-IMF. izimali ezikhishwayo.
Eqinisweni, ngaphandle kokusiza abacebe kakhulu e-US, izinzuzo zokuhoxiswa komthetho kanye nokuhwebelana kwembulunga yonke kwedlule kakhulu kuwo wonke amazwe ngaphandle kwaseMpumalanga Asia. Futhi njengoba umnotho omkhulu kunawo wonke e-East Asia, e-Japan, wawumile phakathi nawo-1990, ukuchuma kwakugxile kakhulu emazweni ambalwa aseMpumalanga Asia. Isibalo sokuqala ukukhula okumaphakathi konyaka kwe-GDP kusukela ngo-1980 kuya ku-1989, okwesibili ukukhula okumaphakathi konyaka kwe-GDP kusukela ngo-1990 kuya ku-1995 “kwamahlosi” aseMpumalanga Asia:
I-China: +10.2%, +12.8%, Hong Kong: +6.9%, +5.6%, Indonesia: +6.1%, +7.6%, Korean Republic: +9.4%, +7.2%, Malaysia +5.2% +8.7% iphesenti, Singapore: +6.4 amaphesenti, +8.7 amaphesenti, Thailand: +7.6 amaphesenti, +8.4 amaphesenti (World Bank 1997).
Lokhu akukhona nje ukusebenza okuphawulekayo, kodwa uhlu oluphawulekayo. Ngaphandle kweShayina eyodwa, yonke “indaba yempumelelo” yaseMpumalanga Asia—okuhambisana nokuqoqwa kabusha komcebo kweminye iminotho “ethuthukisiwe”. is, ngokuyisisekelo, “intuthuko” obekufanele simangale ngayo—manje isohlwini lwezinhlobo zezomnotho ezisengozini “yokuqhunyiswa” kuka-1997-1998.
Kuleli qophelo ukuhlehla kancane eChina kuyadingeka. Akungabazeki ukuthi kuze kube manje iChina iye yasindiswa isiphetho samanye amahlosi ase-East Asia engozini ka-1997-1998 ikakhulukazi ngenxa yokuthi umbuso wayo wezombangazwe wobushiqela wamelana nengcindezi yamazwe ngamazwe yokwenza i-yuan ibe yimali eguqulekayo, kanye nokususa konke ukulawula enhlokodolobha yamazwe ngamazwe. kuyageleza—noma ubuholi baseShayina busheshisa ukusabalala konxiwankulu ngaphakathi futhi baphishekela ngamandla isu lokukhula komthofu wokuthekelisa kwamanye amazwe. Kodwa angizikholwa izinombolo. Uma kuyiqiniso, iminyaka engu-16 yamazinga okukhula onyaka angaphezu kwamaphesenti ayishumi emnothweni wabantu abayizigidi eziyinkulungwane ingaba yindaba eyimpumelelo kwezomnotho. Kungaba okuphawulekayo ngisho noma kuhambisana nokuwohloka okukhulu kwemvelo kanye nokwanda okumangazayo kokungalingani kwezomnotho kunoma yiliphi izwe emlandweni womhlaba wanamuhla—okungenzeka ukuthi kunjalo. Kodwa nakuba izibalo zokukhula komkhiqizo zinyatheliswa yiBhange Lomhlaba, izinombolo ezingavuthiwe, njengoba kwenzeka kuwo wonke amazwe, zinikezwa uhulumeni wezwe. Izibalo zezomnotho zikahulumeni waseShayina sekuyisikhathi eside zingaphansi kokuphathwa kabi kwezombusazwe—ngaphezu kwalokho okwenzeka kunoma yiliphi elinye izwe engilaziyo. Kuke kwaba nezikhathi lapho abaholi bamaKhomanisi aseShayina bengazethembi izibalo zikahulumeni wabo ekukhiqizweni kwezolimo kwaseShayina, ngokwesibonelo, baze basebenzise imininingwane yeCIA eqoqwe kumasathelayithi ezinhloli esikhundleni sokuthatha izinqumo zenqubomgomo. Ngaphezu kwalokho, ababambisene bezombangazwe balowo owayengumphathi weqembu, u-Deng Psiao Peng, asebephathe i-China phakathi nalesi sikhathi, bangabaqambimanga abadume kabi bolwazi ngezinzuzo zezombusazwe zeQembu Elidala LamaKhomanisi. Kodwa amazinga okukhula okubikiwe makhulu kakhulu, kungenzeka kanjani ukuthi ayenze yonke le nto? Angicabangi ukuthi lezi zibalo ziyinganekwane ngokuphelele, kodwa ngisola ukuthi zidukisa kakhulu ngisho noma kungezona eziqanjiwe. Ngiyasola ukuthi izintengo ezisetshenziselwa ukuhlola umkhiqizo wezimpahla namasevisi omkhiqizo wawo umile noma wehlile—njengezinhlamvu eziyisisekelo—abalulekile kakhulu, kuyilapho izintengo zezimpahla okuphuma kwazo kunyukile—njengenyama, imifino yasengadini, kanye nohwebo lwangempela. Impahla - inani elikhulu kakhulu. Ngiyasola futhi ukuthi izimpahla eziningi kanye nezinsiza ezihlinzekwa abasebenzi nemindeni yabo yizinkampani zikahulumeni bezingazange zibalwe phambilini, kodwa manje sezibalwa njengoba ziqhutshwa ngenhloso yokwenza inzuzo. Ngibalula lokhu kungabaza ngoba, uma ngiqinisile, okuningi kwalokho okubonakala kuyisimangaliso sezomnotho e-China kungenzeka akukaze kwenzeke. Kulapho-ke isimangaliso sokuhoxiswa kwemithetho kanye nokuhwebelana kwembulunga yonke kusukela ngo-10 kuya ku-1980 sehla safinyelela kulokho okubonakale kuyizindaba ezimfushane zempumelelo esandleni esigcwele umnotho omncane waseMpumalanga Asia kanye nokwabiwa kabusha kwengcebo nemali engenayo eminothweni embalwa ethuthukile.
Njengoba ngingasho okungcono kakhulu, kuyo yonke i-NIC (Izwe Elisanda Kwenziwa Izimboni) bekunama-FEB ayishumi (amazwe Awa Evermore Behind). Futhi kubo bonke abacebile abahlomula ngokukhuphuka kwamanani entengo, ukukhuphuka kwamasheya enzuzo, nokukhuphuka kwamaholo aphezulu, kwakunezisulu eziyishumi zokwehla kwamaholo angempela, ukuncipha kokulondeka kwemisebenzi, nezinzuzo ezilahlekile. Ukuhlola kwamuva nje kokususwa kwemithetho nokuhwebelana kwembulunga yonke ngempela “kwakuyizikhathi ezinhle kakhulu nezimbi kakhulu.” Kodwa ngeshwa kwakuyizikhathi ezinhle kakhulu kwabambalwa kuphela, futhi izikhathi ezimbi kakhulu kwabaningi. Okungenani yilokho obekwenzeka kwaze kwaqhuma ibhamuza ngo-July 1997.
I-Bust Yakamuva
Asikho isidingo sokulalela ababikezeli bendabuko mayelana nenkinga yezomnotho emhlabeni jikelele. I Washington Post yaqala isihloko sayo ekhasini lokuqala ehlanganisa ukuvulwa kwemihlangano yaminyaka yonke ye-International Monetary Fund kanye neWorld Bank ngo-Okthoba 5 ithi: “Khohlwa isimangaliso sase-Asia, imvuselelo yaseLatin America, uguquko lwaseRussia, umnotho onamandla waseMelika kanye nokunqoba izimakethe zamahhala. Umhlangano waminyaka yonke kuleli sonto wamabhange amakhulu, ongqongqoshe bezezimali kanye nabaxhasi bezimali abazimele e-IMF naseWorld Bank umayelana nokubamba umugqa kanye nokunqanda inhlekelele yezomnotho emhlabeni. Enkulumweni yakhe ezicukuthwaneni ezazihlangene uPaul Volcker, owayengusihlalo weFederal Reserve Board wathi: “Ngokuphazima kweso, konke kubonakala kusengozini. Konke lokho kukhula kwangempela - zonke izigidigidi zokwakhiwa kwengcebo yamaphepha - kusengozini. Okuqala njengokufiphala esikrinini se-radar eThailand - cishe kude neWashington noma eNew York njengoba ungathola - ngandlela thize kuphenduke into ethinta imali. "
Nakuba ukufiphala kwe-boom kungavamile ukugqama njengoba kubikiwe, imiphumela yomuntu yokuqhuma cishe njalo mibi kakhulu kunalokho okuvezwe abezindaba bonxiwankulu. Umbono ovela e-Bangkok (Thailand), Kuala Lumpur (Malaysia), Jakarta (Indonesia), Seoul (South Korea), futhi uvela eSingapore naseHong Kong ufiphele ngendlela emangalisayo. Khohlwa izimakethe zamasheya eziye zalahlekelwa ngaphezu kwengxenye yenani lazo: Kusukela ngo-September 1997 inkomba yamasheya eyinhlanganisela iye yehla ngamaphesenti angu-83 e-Indonesia, ngamaphesenti angu-69 eNingizimu Korea, namaphesenti angu-65 eThailand. Khohlwa izimali eziye zehla ngokuphawulekayo: Kusukela ngo-September 1997 i-rupiah yase-Indonesia yehle ngamaphesenti angu-73, eyaseNingizimu Korea yanqoba ngamaphesenti angu-33, kanti i-baht yaseThailand yehla ngamaphesenti angu-12. Khohlwa ukutakulwa kwe-IMF kwezigidigidi zamadola okushiye izwe lonke kungakapheli amasonto kungashiyi mphumela obonakalayo kwezomnotho. Ukushintshanisa izithembiso zokuncishiswa kwezimali, ukukhululeka kwentengo okungaphezu kokuphindwe kabili kwentengo yezinto eziyisisekelo ezifana nelayisi, kanye nokuqhubeka nokuqedwa kwanoma imiphi imingcele ekuphumeni kwezimali zakwamanye amazwe ngaphandle noma ukuphuma emazweni abo, i-IMF ithembise ukutakulwa ngebheyili ka-$58.2 billion e-Indonesia. , ibheyili ka-$42.3 billion yeSouth Korea, kanye ne-$17.2 billion ye-Thailand. Khohlwa amakhulu ezigidigidi zamadola ezigciniwe zemali eqinile ezithathe amashumi eminyaka ukwakha, zaqedwa esikhathini esiyizinyanga. Khohlwa ukudluliswa kobunikazi bamabhange, amafekthri, izinsiza, nezinsiza zemvelo—izimpahla ezikhiqizayo eziyigugu ezake zenziwa ngenani lezigidigidi zamadola—kubunikazi bangaphandle ngamanani okuthengisa umlilo. Khohlwa konke lokhu ngoba iningi labantu abahlala kulawa mahlosi aseMpumalanga Asia bavele baphenduka izinyathi ezinemithende, bengakaze babe namasheya, izinsiza, noma imali yakwamanye amazwe kwasekuqaleni. Lokho abantu baseMpumalanga Asia abavamile ababenenhlanhla ababekuzuzile “esimangalisweni” sabo sezomnotho kwakuwumsebenzi okhokha kancane mhlawumbe efektri yesimanje, kodwa okungenzeka ukuthi kwakuyisitolo sokujuluka esiyingozi, esikhundleni sokuqashwa kancane njengezisebenzi zonyaka noma ukwabelana ngezitshalo emkhakheni wezolimo ongakhiqizi. Idlanzana elincane lase-Asia kuphela elithole ingcebo eningi ngozamcolo wemali yamazwe ngamazwe langena emazweni abo. Ukuze silinganise umthelela womuntu wenkinga yase-Asia, kufanele sibheke izinguquko emsebenzini, izinguquko ekuphumeni kanye nemali engenayo, izinguquko emholweni wangempela, futhi yebo, izinguquko emazingeni okufa. Ngoba, njengoba lingekho ithemba lokusimama, izinto sezifinyelele kakade ezingeni lapho imiphumela yokuwa komnotho waseMpumalanga Asia kungase kudingeke ukuba ikalwe ngenani lokufa.
Umthelela wenkinga yase-Asia ekuphumeni kusenzima ukukala. Izibalo ze-GDP ngo-1997 zihlanganisa kokubili izinyanga zangaphambi nangemva kokuphahlazeka, futhi izibalo zika-1998 ngeke zilunge kuze kube yilapho unyaka usuphelile. Kodwa ngezinye izikhathi akumthathi umuntu wezulu ukwazi ukuthi umoya uvunguza ngakuphi. EThailand lapho ukuphahlazeka kwehle khona ngaphambili, ukukhula kweGDP ngonyaka wekhalenda ka-1997 kwase kubi, ngemva kokuba ngamaphesenti angu-6 ngo-1996. I-GDP eThailand ibikezelwa ukuthi izokwehla ngamaphesenti angu-8.3 ngo-1998. E-Indonesia, lapho ukuphahlazeka kwenzeka khona kamuva nje. , izinga lokukhula ngo-1997 laliyingxenye kuphela yezinga lokukhula lika-1996, kanti i-GDP kulindeleke ukuthi inciphe ngamaphesenti angu-14 ngo-1998. ENingizimu Korea ukuphahlazeka kwafika sekwephuzile ngokwanele ngo-1997 ukuze kube nomthelela omncane ezibalweni zalowo nyaka, kodwa kulindeleke ukuthi i-GDP ukwehla ngamaphesenti ayisi-6 ngonyaka we-1998. Konke okuqagelwa yi-IMF noma iBhange Lomhlaba ngo-1999 nangale kwayo kubi kakhulu kunokugcina kulawa, namanye amahlosi awile, kodwa konke lokho kuqagela akunangqondo neze njengoba okuningi kuzoncika ekutheni Inkinga idlulela eShayina, eJapan, eBrazil, noma e-Europe nase-US, futhi yiziphi izinyathelo ohulumeni abahlukene nezinhlangano zamazwe omhlaba abazenzayo noma abangazenzi.
Siyazi ukuthi kusukela ngoSepthemba 1997 cishe abantu abayizi-2,000 baye balahlekelwa imisebenzi usuku ngalunye eThailand lapho manje sekunabantu abangaphezu kwezigidi ezimbili abangasebenzi njengoba izinga lokungasebenzi liye lenyuka lisuka ku-2 laya ku-2.1%. E-Indonesia abantu abayizigidi ezingu-7.3 baye balahlekelwa imisebenzi kusukela ngo-September 20 njengoba izinga lokuntuleka kwemisebenzi liye lenyuka lisuka kumaphesenti angu-1997 laya kwangu-4.7. ENingizimu Korea bangu-13.2 million abasanda kungasebenzi, kanti izinga lokungasebenzi linyukile lisuka ku-2 laya ku-2.6%. Futhi lokhu akubabali “izisebenzi eziyizivakashi” zakwamanye amazwe ezithunyelwe ukupakisha: ezingama-8.3 sezithunyelwe ekhaya yiSouth Korea, kanti ezingama-50,000 zithunyelwe ekhaya yiThailand.
E-Indonesia i-UNICEF ilinganisela ukuthi ukufa kwezinsana kungase kunyuke ngamaphesenti angu-30 ekupheleni konyaka. Imitholampilo engu-250,000 ivaliwe ngenxa yokuntuleka kwemithi futhi amavolontiya asala eqala ukuziphilisa wona nemindeni yawo ngokusemandleni awo. Ungqongqoshe wezeMfundo e-Indonesia ulinganisela ukuthi izingane eziyizigidi ezingu-2.7 ziye zayeka isikole kusukela kwaqala inkinga yomnotho, ehlisa izinga lokubhalisa lisuka ku-78 laya kumaphesenti angu-54. Kunezizathu eziningi zokukholelwa ukuthi abaningi balabo abashiya isikole baye bayosebenza embonini yokudayisa ngomzimba kwezingane yase-Indonesia eyizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-3.3.
Kunzima ukukholelwa ukuthi izinto zingase zibe zimbi kakhulu eRussia kunalokho ezazivele zikhona entwasahlobo ka-1998. Kodwa ukuwa komnotho waseRussia kulo Agasti kuzophinde kunciphise ukukhiqizwa, imali engenayo, ukuqashwa, futhi ngokungangabazeki iminyaka yokuphila. UStanley Fischer, iPhini Lomqondisi Ophethe we-IMF uchaza isigameko embikweni okhethekile owethulwe emihlanganweni yakamuva exhaswe yi-IMF/World Bank eWashington, DC ngo-Okthoba 1998:
“Kusukela ngo-1992 i-IMF yiyona ehamba phambili emhlabeni ukusiza iRussia nokugqugquzela izinguquko kwezomnotho. Lokhu kwakunzima kwasekuqaleni, ngoba abashisekeli bezinguquko babengakaze balawule ngokuphelele inqubomgomo yezomnotho. Noma kunjalo, indima yomhlaba wonke ekuguquleni iRussia yayibucayi kakhulu ukuba ingawenzi umzamo. [Kuhle “noblesse oblige!”] Kukhona inqubekelaphambili eyenziwe… kodwa izinga lenkinga yaseRussia kunzima ukulilinganisa ngokweqile…. Kusukela ngo-1996 uhulumeni waseRussia ubulokhu usemncintiswaneni phakathi kwesidingo sokuqoqa izintela ezengeziwe kanye nokwenyuka kwesikweletu semali yenzalo esikweletini sakhe esikhulayo. Esigabeni sesibili amanani entengo kawoyela nempahla ehlayo anciphisa imali engenayo yokuthunyelwa kwempahla kwamanye amazwe, amanani enzalo akhuphuka, futhi uhulumeni kwadingeka ukuthi akhiphe imali engaphezu kuka-$1 bhiliyoni ngeviki wama-GKO, noma isikweletu sesikhathi esifushane se-ruble. NgoJulayi umphakathi wamazwe omhlaba ubhekane nokukhetha okunzima: ukusiza iRussia ukuthi izame ukuvimbela ukwehla. Imiphumela emibi yokwehliswa kwamanani yayicacile futhi uhulumeni waseKiriyenko olwela izinguquko wayethuthuka ezintela nakwezinye izindawo. Ngakho kwenziwa isinqumo sokusiza, kuqashelwa ukuthi lokhu kwakuyingozi elinganiselwe. Kwahlanganiswa iphakethe elisemthethweni lama-dollar ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-22, ngaphansi kombandela wokuthi abaseRussia benze izinguquko ezinkulu zentela kanye nohlelo lokuzithandela lokuhlelwa kabusha kwezikweletu lwabanikazi be-GKO ukuze bashintshele ezibophweni zedola zesikhathi eside zethulwe. Nokho, ukutholwa kwalesi sipho bekukuncane. Lolu hlelo belungasebenza ukube abanikazi be-GKO bebekulungele ukudlulisa izimpahla zabo ezisakhula. Kodwa ngemuva kokuthi abakwaDuma benqabe izinyathelo ezimbili zentela, kanye nokungabaza mayelana nekhono likahulumeni lokufeza izibopho zenqubomgomo ezikhulayo, lokhu akuzange kwenzeke. Ngakho-ke uhulumeni wayebhekene nokukhetha okungenakuqhathaniswa phakathi kokwehliswa kwenani, ukuhlelwa kabusha kwezikweletu noma kokubili. Ikhethe kokubili: i-ruble yehliswa inani, ukuhlelwa kabusha kwe-GKO kwabekwa eceleni futhi kwamiswa okwesikhashana ekukhokheni izikweletu zangasese. Ukutheleleka okulandela izenzo zaseRussia kube kubi kakhulu. Ukuqaphela ukuthi iRussia yayingenkulu kakhulu ukuthi ingahluleka kwanyakazisa ukuzethemba kwabatshalizimali, nakuba kunzima ukukholelwa ukuthi abatshalizimali abangochwepheshe ababethole isilinganiso samaphesenti angu-50 ngonyaka kuma-GKO kusukela ngo-1994 babekholelwa ngempela ukuthi lezi zimali ezitshaliwe ziphephile.”
Ngamanye amazwi, iRussia iye yashiya okwesikhashana eminye imizamo engenamsebenzi yokubeka i-IMF kanye nabakweletwayo ebamele futhi i-IMF manje isiyishiyile iRussia. Kukhona zonke izizathu zokulindela imiphumela kubantu baseRussia, kusukela kulobu busika, ingase ibe inhlekelele.
Kuleli qophelo umkhuhlane wase-Asia awusabalele eChina. Ijaji lisaphumile ekutheni iJapan ingagxuma yini ukuqala umnotho wayo noma izocwila ekuwohlokeni komnotho. (Uma i-Japan ingena ijula ekuwohlokeni komnotho kuyoba ngenxa yokulahleka kwezimakethe zokuthekelisa kwamanye amazwe ezomnotho zase-Asia eziwohlokayo, hhayi ngenxa “yephutha” elithile ohlelweni lwamabhange lwaseJapan, njengoba kushiwo kabanzi emibuthanweni yaseNtshonalanga. Kuthatha okwangempela. i-chutzpah yabamabhange baseNtshonalanga abanikeze i-US inkinga yokonga nokubolekwa imali ukuthi inyakaze iminwe yabo kubabhange baseJapane abasungula isimangaliso sezomnotho saseJapane ngeminyaka yawo-1950, 60s, 70s, kanye nasekuqaleni kwawo-80s) Futhi ayikho indawo yaseLatin America—okubaluleke kakhulu iBrazil—okusafanele ukuwa. Ngaphezu kwalokho, ama-jitters eYurophu nase-US asalokhu enjalo kuphela kuze kube manje, futhi abelokhu egxile kakhulu ekushintsheni kwezimakethe zamasheya okungakathinti uhlangothi “lwangempela” lomnotho, okungukuthi ukukhiqiza, imali engenayo, kanye nokuqashwa. Okuningi kuncike ekutheni i-bust iyaqhubeka nokusabalala noma ukuthi ukusulelana kuyema lapha.
Ngenyanga ezayo: kanjani futhi kungani le nkinga yenzeke, kungani amanani emali kanye nezimakethe zamasheya ehla emnothweni wase-Asia owake waba yimpumelelo, kungani izinqubomgomo ze-IMF zibhebhethekisa le nkinga, nokuthi inkinga yase-Asia naseRussia isongela kanjani ukuthinta kokubili izimakethe zezimali kanye nokukhiqizwa kwezomnotho imali engenayo kwezinye “izimakethe ezisafufusa” kanye naseJapane, eYurophu, nase-United States.