URobin Hahnel unguSolwazi Wezomnotho ePortland State University. Incwadi yakhe yakamuva ithi Ubulungiswa bezomnotho kanye nentando yeningi futhi ungumbhali ngokubambisana noMichael Albert we Umnotho Wezombangazwe Womnotho Obambe iqhaza. Ukhulume no-Alex Doherty we-NLP ngenkinga eqhubekayo ku-Eurozone.
Ukukhethwa kukaFrancois Hollande kanye nokubonakala kwesobunxele okhethweni olusanda kwenziwa eGreece kuholele ethembeni lokuthi ukugudluka emigomeni yokuqina kungase kwenzeke ngokwepolitiki. Uthini umbono wakho?
I-Hahnel: Izinqubomgomo ze-Austerity azigcini nje ngokungenabulungiswa ngokwedlulele, zibhebhethekisa inkinga okufanele ziyixazulule ngokuwohloka komnotho okwenza kube nzima ukukhokha izikweletu. Osomnotho abakhulu abangakwesokunxele, abathuthukayo nabanekhono bebelokhu bekhomba lokhu ngokungenzi lutho isikhathi esingaphezu kweminyaka emithathu. Izimakethe zezimali manje zinombono ofanayo ngokusobala. Ababolekisi manje sebekhuphula amaphrimiyamu engcuphe kuwo wonke amazwe umnotho wawo uncipha ngenxa yezinqubomgomo zokunciphisa imali kungakhathalekile ukuthi ohulumeni bawo “bayaziphatha” noma cha, okusho ukuthi ukufeza zonke izibopho ezibhalwe encwadini kungakhathaliseki ukuthi zinzima kangakanani, noma “aziziphathanga kahle” okungukuthi ziyehluleka ukuphoqelela umthetho. zonke izilinganiso zokugcina zokuthi akuxoxisane ngazo. Ngeshwa, labo abaphethe i-European Commission kanye ne-European Central Bank abazange banake labo abakhuluma ngokumelene ne-austerity, futhi kunalokho baye baphikelela ukuphindaphinda iphutha elifanayo uHerbert Hoover alenza eminyakeni engamashumi ayisishiyagalombili edlule.
Njengoba inani labantu, inhlalo, nezomnotho elivela ekunciphiseni liye lakhula, njengoba ubuze bezinyathelo sebubonakala ngokwengeziwe, futhi okubaluleke kakhulu, njengoba amandla aphikisana ne-austerity esehleleke kangcono, ukuphikiswa kuye kwanda kancane kancane. Njenganoma yimuphi umnyakazo odumile, amandla okunyakaza kwe-anti-austerity ayancipha futhi ageleza, futhi ngezinye izikhathi anamandla endaweni eyodwa kunenye. Kodwa umcabango usobala: Inhlangano emelene nokuqiniswa iyadlondlobala kulo lonke elaseYurophu, futhi kuya kuba nzima nakakhulu ngalabo abacindezelayo ukuba “baqhubeke behamba.” Manje sesingene esigabeni lapho abanye phakathi kwezikhulu ezibusayo zaseYurophu beshintsha inkulumo yabo. Ukuthi lokhu kuholela ekuguqukeni kwangempela emigomeni ye-austerity kusazobonakala.
Ukuphikiswa kwe-austerity kuthatha izindlela ezahlukene. Abanye bajezisa osopolitiki namaqembu ahambisana nokuqiniswa okhethweni bashintshe amavoti abo bawabhekise emaqenjini abehlukene azwakalisa ukungahambisani nokuqiniswa emikhankasweni yawo yokhetho. Abanye bamasha emigwaqweni bateleke bezama ukuphoqa labo ababusayo ukuthi bashintshe ukwenza. Futhi abanye basabela ngokubiza "ushintsho lwesistimu" futhi baqale ukwakha umhlaba omusha abakholelwa ukuthi akunakwenzeka kuphela, kodwa kuya kudingekile. Njengoba intsha eyandayo iba nenzondo esobala “kumbuso wasendulo” izikhulu ezibusayo ziya ngokuya ziba novalo futhi zintengantenge phakathi kokuvumelana nokucindezelwa. Ukhetho lwakamuva e-Greece nase-France luwukubuyisela emuva emuva kwezombusazwe kumabutho asekela ukucindezelwa. Kuzodingeka ukunqotshwa okwengeziwe okhethweni, ukugqugquzelwa kwabantu abaningi kanye neziteleka, kanye nosongo olukhula njalo loshintsho oluqinile lwesistimu ukuze kushintshwe inqubomgomo yokuncishiswa kwemali iye kumgomo wokukhula. Ukunqoba kwe-anti-austerity movement akukona nje eduze.
Ukukhethwa kuka-Hollande kuholele ekuqhathaniseni nokukhethwa kukahulumeni we-Mitterand oqinile kakhulu ngo-1981 owashiya ngokushesha uhlelo lwakhe lokunxele ngenxa yengcindezi yezimali zamazwe ngamazwe. Iziphi izifundo lokhu okusifundisa zona namuhla?
I-euro zone ingaphila kalula ngokwezomnotho ngaphandle kweGreece. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, iFrance ingowesibili ngobukhulu emnothweni we-euro futhi idlala indima enkulu kwezepolitiki ye-EU. Kodwa-ke, ngicabanga ukuthi ukukhethwa kuka-Hollande eFrance akubalulekile kakhulu kunokwenyuka kwamaqembu angakwesokunxele okhethweni lwaseGreece. Wonke amaqembu epolitiki angakwesokudla noma amaphakathi kwesokunxele ebengamele ukucindezelwa okuphoqelelwe e-EU phakathi neminyaka emithathu edlule avotelwe ukuphuma esikhundleni. U-Nicolas Sarkozy uyisisulu sakamuva esiphakathi sokuwela entukuthelweni ethandwayo ngokumelene ne-austerity. Ukube iFrench Socialist Party ibiphethe ngesikhathi kuqubuka le nkinga esikhundleni sika-Sarkozy, ngisola ukuthi umholi wayo ubezobeka umfutho - “njengokudabuka kodwa kunesidingo” - njengoba kwenza uPapandreou eGreece naseZapatero eSpain. Uma kunjalo, esikhundleni sokuthi u-Sarkozy akhonjiswe umnyango ngabavoti baseFrance bekuzoba yi-French Socialist Party ezobe iphuma esikhundleni njengamanje.
Umbuzo uthi yiziphi izifundo ezifundwe nguMnu. Hollande ngekusasa labanye bakhe abezenhlalakahle, uMnuz Papanedreou noMnu uZapatero? Yiziphi izifundo azifundile ngalokho okwenziwa yi- austerity, futhi angakufezi? Mayelana nalolo daba, yiziphi izifundo azifundile kuhulumeni kaFrancois Mitter nangasekuqaleni kwawo-1980? Ngiyangabaza kakhulu ukuthi uzifundile izifundo engicabanga ukuthi kufanele abe nazo. Izinkulumo ezimelene nobungqongqoshe zishibhile kulowo omele iqembu eliphikisayo. Ngabe sikhona isizathu sokukholelwa ukuthi uMnu Hollande uzohamba ngezinyawo njengoba esephethe ngemuva kokukhuluma inkulumo elula ngesikhathi somkhankaso?
Njengoba usho nje, uhulumeni wangakwesokunxele owawuholwa nguMitterand ngo-1981 wawunomfutho kakhulu kunalowo ozoholwa nguMnu uHollande namuhla. Nokho izithakazelo zezezimali zamazwe ngamazwe ezazinamandla kangako ngaleso sikhathi njengoba zinjalo namuhla ngokushesha ziphoqe uMnu. Mitterand ukuthi ashiye inqubekelaphambili, izinqubomgomo zezimali ezinwetshiwe ayekhankasele ngazo. Ku-Economic Justice and Democracy (Routledge, 2005) ngakusho lokhu ngenqubomgomo yezomnotho yaseMitterand ngesikhathi sokuwohloka komnotho ngo-1981:
Uhulumeni wethula izinqubomgomo eziqinile zokunwetshwa kwezimali kanye nezezimali ukuze kuhlinzekwe izidingo eziningi zezimpahla nezinsizakalo ukuze izinkampani ezizimele zikhiqize amandla aphelele omnotho futhi ziqashe bonke abasebenzi. Ayikho into yokuthola iphutha lapha. Wonke umuntu ufanelwe ithuba lokwenza umsebenzi owusizo emphakathini futhi anxeshezelwe ngokufanelekile ngokwenza kanjalo. Kodwa-ke, kuningi kuphela uhulumeni othuthukayo angakwenza mayelana nalokhu inqobo nje uma amathuba amaningi okuqashwa asekubaqashi abazimele. U-Mitterrand ufanelwe ukunconywa ngokwenza into ephumelela kakhulu noma yimuphi uhulumeni emnothweni osangonxiwankulu angayenza mayelana nalokhu: ungazinaki izixwayiso nezinsongo ezingenakugwenywa ezivela emibuthanweni yezamabhizinisi nezezimali kanye nosomnotho wabo ojwayelekile abashumayela “isibopho” sezimali kanye nokubamba imali, futhi ukwethula inqubomgomo eqinile yezezimali kanye nezezimali…. Nokho, ekugcineni kunezinketho ezintathu kuphela: (1) Ungawukhuthazi umnotho wasekhaya kwasekuqaleni ngoba awuzimisele ukumelana nokushisa okungenakugwema ekhishini lakho. (2) Khuthaza, kodwa uyeke ngokushesha lapho utshalomali olusha lwamazwe ngamazwe luduba umnotho wakho, ingcebo yasekhaya iyakhuphuka, futhi izimakethe zezimali ziqhubekisela phambili amanani enzalo esikweletini sikahulumeni. Noma (3) khuthaza, kodwa ulungele ukubhekana nokushisa izimakethe zezimali zomhlaba wonke zizoletha izinyathelo eziqinile ezikhawulela ukuthengwa kwempahla evela kwamanye amazwe kanye nendiza enkulu, ngokufaka esikhundleni sokutshalwa kwezimali kukahulumeni ngokuncipha kokutshalwa kwezimali kwamazwe ngamazwe nokwangasese, futhi ngokutshela abakweletwayo ukuthi ngeke ukhokhe ngaphandle uma bevuma rollovers kanye nemvume. Inketho yesithathu ilingana nezomnotho enkathini ye-neoliberal yokungagcini nje ngokudlala i-hardball nababolekisi bamazwe ngamazwe, kodwa ukuya empini yezezimali uma kudingeka. Njengoba inzima njengoba inketho yesithathu, kubalulekile ukukhumbula ukuthi uhulumeni waseMitterrand eFrance wafakazela ukuthi inketho yesibili ayisebenzi. (amakhasi 121-122)
Njengomhumushi onobungane, isazi sezenhlalakahle saseMelika uMichael Harrington, saphetha: “Ngaphakathi neminyaka engaphansi kwemibili amaSocialist ayehileleke ekulawuleni umbuso ‘olukhuni,’ owaziwa ngokuthi ukucindezela konxiwankulu.” Ngeke ngishintshe nelilodwa izwi engalibhala eminyakeni eyisikhombisa edlule, futhi ngethemba ukuthi uMnu. Hollande akenzi iphutha lokucabanga ukuthi ukulinganisela nokuba namahloni ekuphenduleni izinsongo ezivela ezinkampanini zamazwe ngamazwe kungase kumenze athole imvume kubavoti ababekezelele kakhulu, indawo enhle emlandweni. Ngeshwa, ngicabanga ukuthi uMnu. Hollande neqembu lakhe kungenzeka ukuthi bangazikhethela ukwenza leli phutha, futhi balwe ngisho nangaphansi kukaMitterand phambi kwakhe.
Kodwa umlando kuphela ongasho. Ubuze bokuqiniswa, kanye nesiphetho esisobala sezombangazwe sawo wonke amaqembu ezombusazwe aphethe, kungase kukhule umgogodla lapho kuncane khona ukuqala. Kunoma ikuphi, asikho isizathu sokwahlulela kusengaphambili uhulumeni omusha waseFrance njengoba lokho amabutho aphikisayo okumelwe akwenze kunoma isiphi isimo kuyefana: PHAKAMA ESIHOGWENI OKWENGEZIWE! Njengoba kuvela imifantu emisha yezombangazwe, ngisho naseJalimane, ngubani owaziyo ukuthi yibaphi osopolitiki abazosimangaza, noma okungenzeka maduzane.
Ukuchaza kanjani ukungaguquki kukahulumeni waseJalimane ekugcizeleleni kwawo ekugcineni izinqubomgomo zamanje zezimali?
Umuntu angathini ngosopolitiki baseJalimane kanye nomphakathi waseJalimane? Umnyakazo ohlakaniphile uwukudlulela phambili ezinkingeni zezimali, kunokuba usabele ngokunensa kakhulu nangokucophelela. Njengoba uMerkel esenze leli phutha kaningi, uphoqe abakhokhi bentela baseJalimane ukuthi babeke engcupheni enkulu yezimali zokukhishwa kwebheyili kunalokho okudingekayo. Kungakanani lokhu obekungaphezu kokuqapha, noma umbono ohlakaniphe ngesenti kuye, nokuthi kungakanani okugqugquzelwe imizwa edumile phakathi kwabavoti baseJalimane engahambisani “nokuvumela” lokho okuvezwa emithonjeni yezindaba yaseJalimane njengabasebenzi abangamavila futhi ohulumeni abangenandaba nama-PIGS - kanye neGreece ikakhulukazi - kunzima ukwazi.
Kukhona ezinye izithakazelo zekhala eliqinile ezidlale indima enkulu ngokusobala. Njengoba amabhange aseJalimane esemgwaqweni wokuboleka imali eminingi kohulumeni be-PIGS namabhizinisi azimele alindele uhulumeni wabo - futhi angenzi mathambo ngakho, uhulumeni waseMerkel ongakwesokudla ubonakala kuqala kumabhange aseJalimane - ukuvikela izintshisekelo zabo. Lokho kusho ukukhama yonke isenti kubabolekisi babo, kodwa hhayi ukubaphusha kuze kufike lapho behluleka khona. UMerkel uzamile ukwenza lokhu kanye ezingxoxweni mayelana nezimo zokungabi namali - ecindezela yonke isenti lokugcina - ngenkathi enikeza ibheyili ngomzuzu wokugcina ukuze agweme ukwenza iphutha okunganyakazisa imboni yamabhange yaseJalimane. Kodwa lokhu kuhlale kuwumdlalo oyingozi futhi iJalimane kungenzeka manje isiphushe iGreece, futhi mhlawumbe nabanye, kude kakhulu.
Njengoba ukuwohloka komnotho emhlabeni kusekhona kithi, njengoba i-Europe ibuyela ngokusobala ekuwohlokeni komnotho okwesatshwa kakhulu “okuphindwe kabili”, kungani iJalimane yenqabe ngokuqinile ukunikeza i-EU umfutho wezezimali owawudingeka kakhulu? Ngokungafani nama-PIGS, uhulumeni waseJalimane angakwazi ukuboleka njengamanje ukuze axhase ngezimali okushodayo ngamanani enzalo aphansi ezimakethe ezizimele. Yini ebavimba ekusebenziseni le mali eshibhile ukuze bakhe umfutho wezimali odingekayo? Impendulo ethandwayo ukwesaba kweJalimane ukwehla kwamandla emali kusukela ezinsukwini ze-Weimer Republic ngemva kweWWI. Ngicabanga ukuthi impendulo engenzeka kakhulu ilele eqinisweni lokuthi iJalimane “ithumele” ngempumelelo ukungasebenzi kwayo ezingulubeni. Ngenxa yokuthi ama-PIGS asebenzisa imali efanayo i-Germany isebenzisa akukho neyodwa kuzo engakwazi ukwehlisa inani ukuze kuqedwe ukusilela okukhulu kwezohwebo abazisebenzisayo neJalimane. Lokhu kunikeza iJalimane imali enqwabelene yohwebo egcine izinga lokuntuleka kwemisebenzi eJalimane liphansi kulo lonke Ukuwohloka Okukhulu Komnotho. Ngokungafani ne-US lapho abavoti bebonakala bezimisele ukubekezelela amanani aphezulu okuntuleka kwemisebenzi, lokhu bekungenjalo eJalimane. Noma yimuphi uhulumeni waseJalimane ongamele ukuntuleka kwemisebenzi okuphezulu ngokwesiko unikezwe i-heave-ho esheshayo. Kodwa izinga lokungasebenzi laseJalimane alizange libe phezulu ngenxa yezinsalela zayo ezinkulu zohwebo namanye amazwe endaweni ye-euro. Ngakho-ke, ingcindezi encane yezepolitiki yasekhaya yokugqugquzela imali eJalimane, naphezu kweqiniso lokuthi lokhu kungenza okwengeziwe ukukhipha i-EU ekuwohlokeni kwayo kwezomnotho kunanoma yini enye. Kodwa-ke, ukucwiliswa kabili kwe-EU kubukeka kushuba kakhulu, futhi amazinga okuntuleka kwemisebenzi eJalimane aseqala ukwenyuka. Ngakho-ke, njengokunye okuningi, nalokhu kungase kushintshe maduze.
Ukuhoxiswa kwe-Greece ku-eurozone kuchazwa ngamagama acishe abe yi-apocalyptic ngabameli besimo somnotho esikhona. Ucabanga ukuthi imiphumela ingaba yini kuko kokubili iGreece kanye ne-eurozone jikelele uma iGreece ibingase iphume?
IGreece ifinyelele esigxotsheni sezombangazwe lapho amaqembu ezepolitiki amaphakathi nesokunxele aphakathi nendawo aphethe ipolitiki yaseGreece eminyakeni engamashumi amane edlule womabili amavoti ancipha ngaphezu kwengxenye, kanti amaqembu abekade ehlukene ahamba ngokusobala. Ngaphezu kwalokho, umnotho wamaGreki usenkingeni yokufa futhi uphelelwa amandla ngokushesha. Akukho okudlula kuhulumeni kwesokunxele oqinile ozimisele (1) ukukhokha izikweletu ezingakhokhwa, (2) ukubuyisela ukusetshenziswa kwezimali zomphakathi, kanye (3) nokuzimbandakanya ekutshalweni kwezimali komphakathi lapho utshalomali oluzimele lubaleka lunethuba lokuguqula izinto. Nokho, lokho kungase kwenzeke maduze.
Ngaphandle uma imithetho imisiwe kubonakala manje sekumele kube nokhetho olusha ekuqaleni kukaJuni. Zintathu izinto okumele zenzeke ukuze kuqhamuke uhulumeni womthethosisekelo wamaqembu angakwesokunxele. (1) I-SYRIZA (16.78%) kanye neqembu leDemocratic Left (6.11%) badinga ukukhulisa amaphesenti abo evoti ngezindleko zikaPasok owele endaweni yesithathu ngo-13.18%. Lokho kungenzeka kalula njengoba (a) I-Pasok iphethe ubuvila obungathandwa futhi isasekela ukuqina “njengokudingekile;” Ukusekelwa kwe-Pasok "kuthambile" futhi kusekelwe kakhulu ekuxhasweni ngeke kusakwazi ukuletha; (c) abaningi bavotele i-Pasok esikhathini esidlule kuphela ngoba bekholelwa ukuthi amaqembu asele ayengenalo ithuba elingokoqobo lokubusa. Manje njengoba i-SYRIZA isidlule i-Pasok kuyivoti le-Pasok "elimoshiwe." (2) Labo abavotele amaqembu amancane asele - njengamaGreens (2.9%) - abahlulekile ukuthola u-3% omncane wanoma yiziphi izihlalo ePhalamende badinga ukudlula u-3% noma banikeze amavoti abo kwelinye lamaqembu angakwesokunxele. ukunqoba ukumelwa. Angiboni ukuthi kungani lokho kufanele kube nzima kakhulu okhethweni olusha. Kodwa inkinga enzima kakhulu ukuthi (3) amaqembu asele kumele anqobe ukuhlukana okuyingqophamlando ukuze akhe uhulumeni wobumbano nohlelo olusebenzayo.
Kodwa-ke, umlando ungase unikeze amaGreki angakwesokunxele isipho senhlanhla. Kungenzeka ukuthi inkinga enkulu yokuhlukanisa amaqembu angakwesokunxele ingase ibe yindaba egudwini. Iqembu lamaKhomanisi lalimelene nokujoyina i-euro zone kwasekuqaleni, futhi lizimisele ngokushiya. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, iqembu leDemocratic Left lahlukana ne-SYRIZA ngo-2010 ikakhulukazi ngenxa yokuthi abaholi beDemocratic Left baphikelela ekuzibophezeleni okuqinile kokuhlala endaweni ye-euro. I-SYRIZA ithanda kuphela ukuhlala endaweni ye-euro - inqobo nje uma i-EU ihlehlisa izinqubomgomo zayo zokuthi i-pro-austerity. Ngeke nje kwenzeke lokho, ukwehluleka kwesibili ngeke kugwemeke, okungase kuqalise ukulandelana kwezehlakalo okuhlanganisa nokugijima kwebhange okukhulu okuzophoqa iGreece ukuthi iphume endaweni ye-euro ngisho nangaphambi kokuba kuqale uhulumeni ongakwesokunxele. Uma kunjalo, ngeke nje kuphela kube isisekelo sombango ngakwesobunxele kuphela, uhulumeni ongakwesokunxele angajabulela inzuzo yokwehla kwenani elizonikeza umfutho omkhulu wokuqashwa njengoba ukuthengiswa kwe-Greece kwamanye amazwe kushibhile kanye nokuthengwa kwempahla kwamanye amazwe kubiza kakhulu. “Kule nkinga” ecacile uhulumeni wesobunxele ungaba futhi uhulumeni wensindiso yesizwe lapho amaGreki ashisekela izwe ahlangana khona.
Uma lokhu kwenzeka iGreece ingase ibonakale iyinsindiso yeYurophu hhayi incithakalo yayo. Labo abaphikisana ngokuthi izinxushunxushu zezomnotho nezepolitiki eGreece zicekela phansi i-EU bakhuluma nge-neoliberal EU esendleleni engazinzile yokuzibhubhisa. Kuzothatha i-jolt ukususa i-EU endleleni yayo yokungabi namali eyinhlekelele iye endleleni yokukhula ngokulinganayo. Uma iGreece inikeza i-jolt, futhi ikhombisa indlela eya endleleni engcono, labo abaphupha ngeYurophu enokuthula, elinganayo, nephumelelayo bangase babe neGreece yokubonga eminyakeni kusukela manje.
Isixwayiso: “Okwenzekayo” akufani nokuthi “kungenzeka,” ingasaphathwa eyokuthi “into eqinisekile!” Futhi ngisho nokuzamazama okuvela eGreece kungase kungenele ukuguqula yonke iYurophu. Kungase kuthathe ama-jolt amaningi kwamanye ama-PIGS futhi.
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