People keep suggesting that democracy is alive and well because we have two parties that donāt agree on everything. I think thatās total bullshit.ā When you meet Cathy OāNeil, a data scientist and author, you quickly discover she isnāt exactly convinced about the health of the USās electoral system.
A Harvard PhD graduate in mathematics and actively involved in the Occupy movement, OāNeilās experience is crucial to her new book: Weapons of Math Destruction describes the way that math can be manipulated by biases and affect every aspect of our lives.
As well as questioning the two-party system in the US, sheās also looked at how mathematics has been used in the housing and banking sector to affect our lives via her blog mathbabe for more than a decade. So whatās her problem with good old American democracy in 2016?
āDemocracy is more than a two-party system. Itās an informed public and thatās whatās at risk,ā she says. āThe debates are where you would hope to find out real information, but theyāre just talking about their dick size ⦠The algorithms are making it harder and harder to get good information.ā And algorithms, rule-based processes for solving mathematical problems, are being applied to more and more areas of our lives.
This idea is at the heart of OāNeilās thinking on why algorithms can be so harmful. In theory, mathematics is neutral ā two plus two equals four regardless of what anyone wishes the answer was. But in practice, mathematical algorithms can be formulated and tweaked based on powerful interests.
OāNeil saw those interests first hand when she was a quantitative analyst on Wall Street. Starting in 2007, OāNeil spent four years in finance, two of them working for a hedge fund. There she saw the use of weapons of math destruction, a term OāNeil uses to describe āalgorithms that are important, secret and destructiveā. The algorithms that ultimately caused the financial crisis meet all of those criteria ā they affected large numbers of people, were entirely opaque and destroyed lives.
āI left disgusted by finance because I thought of it as a rigged system and it was rigged for the insiders,ā says OāNeil. āI was ashamed by that ā as a mathematician I love math and I think math is a tool for good.ā
Among the many examples of powerful formulas that OāNeil cites in her book, political polling doesnāt come up, even though this election cycle has made pollingās power more talked about than ever before. So is it dangerous? Could polling be a weapon of math destruction?
She pauses ā āIām not sureā ā then she pauses some more. āI think polling is a weapon of math destruction,ā she says. āNobody really understands it, itās incredibly widespread and powerful.ā We discuss the success of Nate Silver, the founder and editor-in-chief of FiveThirtyEight (a site I spent almost two years working at). Silver has positioned himself as one of the few people who does understand polling, and as such heās been christened as a soothsayer and savant. Weāre desperate for math answers, which is part of the reason we ended up here, according to OāNeil.
āYou donāt see a lot of skepticism,ā she says. āThe algorithms are like shiny new toys that we canāt resist using. We trust them so much that we project meaning on to them.ā
That desperation is potentially very damaging to democracy. Increasingly the public is informed about polling data, not policy information, when deciding who to elect. āItās self-referential,ā OāNeil explains.
Like so many algorithms, political polls have a feedback loop ā the more we hear a certain candidate is ahead in the polls, the more we recognize their name and the more we see them as electorally viable.
OāNeilās book explains how other mathematical models do a similar thing ā such as the ones used to measure the likelihood an individual will relapse into criminal behavior. When someone is classed as āhigh riskā, theyāre more likely to get a longer sentence and find it harder to find a job when they eventually do get out. That person is then more likely to commit another crime, and so the model looks like it got it right.
And then there are those biases. Contrary to popular opinion that algorithms are purely objective, OāNeil explains in her book that āmodels are opinions embedded in mathematicsā. Think Trump is a hopeless candidate? That will affect your calculations. Think black American men are all criminal thugs? That affects the models being used in the criminal justice system, too.
Ultimately algorithms, according to OāNeil, reinforce discrimination and widen inequality, āusing peopleās fear and trust of mathematics to prevent them from asking questionsā. The seemingly contradictory words āfearā and ātrustā leap out to me: how many other things do we both fear and trust, except perhaps for fate or God? OāNeil agrees. āI think it has a few hallmarks of worship ā we turn off parts of our brain, we somehow feel like itās not our duty, not our right to question this.ā
But sometimes itās hard for non-statisticians to know which questions to ask. OāNeilās advice is to be persistent. āPeople should feel more entitled to push back and ask for evidence, but they seem to fold a little too quickly when theyāre told that itās complicated,ā she says. If someone feels that they some formula has affected their lives, āat the very least they should be asking, how do you know that this is legal? That it isnāt discriminatory?āā
But often we donāt even know where to look for those important algorithms, because by definition the most dangerous ones are also the most secretive. Thatās why the catalogue of case studies in OāNeilās book are so important; sheās telling us where to look.
Weapons of Math Destruction: How Big Data Increases Inequality and Threatens Democracy is out now and published by Crown.
Mona Chalabi is data editor at Guardian US. She previously worked at FiveThirtyEight, the Bank of England, the Economist Intelligence Unit, Transparency International and the International Organisation for Migration. Follow her on TwitterĀ @MonaChalabi and on Instagram @Mona_Chalabi.
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1 Comment
I find it extremely strange that an obviously bright woman like Cathy O’Neil, who is fluent in the language of algorithms, can walk into the one of the deepest sanctuaries of the religion of Capitalism – a hedge fund – and be shocked by the fact that capitalists fix the rules to benefit capitalists.
Oh my, we’re not in Kansas any more.
Perhaps O’Neill and her colleagues could use their intelligence and fluency in this critically important language to educate the rest of about what algorithms are, how they work and how they can be used to benefit human liberation and socialism.