Regularly, Donald Trump is presented as a fascistic leader. Yet, he has no Italian-style Blackshirts roaming the streets and no Hitler-style SA or SS beating up opponents. Nor are there people rounded up and put in concentration camps or being tortured in a Pinochet-style football station.

There will be no Auschwitz in the USA. And, there weren’t even political assassinations under Trump’s first presidency (2017-2021) even though Trump’s far right presidency ended with a coup d‘état like storming of Capitol Hill which resulted in five deaths.

Perhaps, today’s fascism no longer comes in goose-steps. In fact, it may not come at all. Beyond all that, Donald Trump also lacks virtually all key ingredients of fascism.

Still, what Donald Trump might create is an even more sinister version of an anti-democratic far right populist regime.

Instead of outright fascism, Donald Trump is more likely to follow the rule book of Hungarian semi-dictator Viktor Orbán and his far right Fidesz party. Orbán’s right-wing populism created an autocratic and illiberal regime in which democracy became merely a facade.

Outward, it appears as if Hungary is still a democracy. Hungary has formal elections. Meanwhile, inwardly it shows all elements of a far right dictatorship in which democracy’s separation of powers – as outlined by Montesquieu – no longer exists and elections are downgraded to a manipulated process to certify Orbán’s authoritarian rule.

In short, Hungary’s parliament has been reduced to an appendage of Orbán’s right-wing populist party. Meanwhile, the previously independent judiciary and the legal system are under control of Orbán’s far right state.

Yet, there is more. Hungary’s crypto-democratic framework is concocted in such a way that it gives an awe-inspiring advantage to Orbán’s right-wing Fidesz party. In other words, democracy takes place but Orbán’s system ensures that his party wins.

Orbán’s authoritarian façade-democracy works so well that, in 2022, Orbán’s party got a two-third’s majority in the Hungarian parliament. Bingo!

Emergency powers to eliminate democracy can be declared at will. Yet, there is no need for that. The smart thing to do is to keep façade-democracy visible as a cover.

Unlike in the year 1939, the brutality of Hungary’s fascist Nyilaskeresztes Párt is also no longer needed. In addition, Orbán has near total control of the media. His re-election is assured through a tailor-made electoral law.

Similarly, Donald Trump said, ‘You won’t have to vote any more’. Well, you might still vote but it no longer makes any difference. Regular voting keeps façade-democracy alive.

If Donald Trump lives out his “dictatorial tendencies”, the USA will still be called a democracy even though it is merely a concealment for a right-wing regime.

Following Orbán’s right-wing playbook, in a future Trump-style USA, just one-third of Americans who are eligible to vote, might be enough to secure a two-third majority for Trump-like successors of an ever more authoritarian Republican party.

Key pillars of a future far right Trump state includes the elimination – or at least, a substantial weakening – of what is known as checks and balances. This move will be supported by “Trump’s” Supreme Court. With the court’s backing, Donald Trump might actually achieve this.

Meanwhile, his propaganda machine might continue to dominate the media landscape. Nearly all public images beamed to people will show Donald Trump or his authoritarian successor.

Donald Trump is also set to install an informal power network based on personal loyalty to Trump, nepotism, his whims, and political corruption.

Simultaneously, the far right populist-authoritarian stance of Trumpism will develop further over the coming years. This is supported by the consistent ideology of right-wing populism.

Such an ideology can be spiced up with references to Christian values. Yet, these do not indicate any religious conviction on the part of Donald Trump. What Donald Trump has done is that he has delivered what US clerical-fascism wanted: an end to abortion.

Still, Trump republicanisms is still divided between a religious, nationalist, conservative, rural, and an authoritarian wing as well as – on the other side – a slightly more liberal, urban, and cosmopolitan wing.

Even inside his party, these factions are likely to become more polarized and potentially incompatible.

Like all right-wing populists, Donald Trump invents and exploits the far-right populist narrative of a quintessential “us-vs.-them” combat. It is a fictitious fight between “the people” and the fabricated concept of an elite, the deep state, and the public enemies.

Here too, the fact that Donald Trump is a billionaire and part of the New York business elite for decades does not matter. Much of these reflect what Chomsky calls the spectacular achievements of propaganda.

Following the Hungarian playbook also means that the USA’s electoral law will undergo significant changes. On the surface of façade-democracy, Trump’s USA will maintain a system of democratic representation with majoritarian elements like those enshrined in the first past the post system.

Yet, the focus will increasingly shift toward the majoritarian-authoritarian elements.

On its shiny outside, a future Trumpian system of elections will offer freedom, universal suffrage, and access to both active and passive suffrage. However, Trump’s ruling party is likely to directly and indirectly interfere.

This will lead to very serious distortions. Trump’s two most powerful tools are voter-suppression and gerrymandering.

The ultimate goal is that Trumpist candidates dominate electoral districts. Certain minor or not-so-minor restrictions will also be placed on voter registration and voting rights. There will be an intentionally fabricated pro-far right bias in the system that produces the outcomes far right Trumpism wants.

Simultaneously, election supervisory bodies will be influenced – perhaps even manipulated – by Trump’s far right government.

They can no longer be considered impartial but yet, people still vote, electoral TV shows are celebrated, a “performative extravaganza”, and poll results on a regularly announced head-to-head race, will be announced.

Beyond that, there are also verification and complaint procedures that can be distorted. Indirectly, the government’s control or influence of some media, restrictions placed on the hated liberal media, and Donald Trump’s very successful off-and-online propaganda machines will create an even more uneven playing field in the future. These are the key elements of façade-democracy.

Over the coming four years, Trumpist propaganda will capture the public sphere while clouding the line between far-right party politics and the state.

In the end, the electoral system and even the US constitution that “formally” guarantee freedom of expression will remain – seemingly – intact but Trump’s media landscape will no longer reflect a democratic balance.

Trump’s media scene might appear to represent pluralism, but it will be significantly distorted in favour of far right Trumpism.

Corporate ownership of media outlets will become even more relevant. Simultaneously, regulatory oversight will be concentrated in institutions governed by far right Trumpism and will de facto once under Trump’s command.

The ideology of right-wing Trumpism will influence the media to a considerable degree. It might even turn TV broadcasters into propaganda channels following the example of Murdoch’s FOX.

In print media, there will be a tendency to take over important outlets and regional newspapers may even come under oligarchic control. While Elon Musk’s Twitter “X” sets the precedent inside the world of online platforms.

Simultaneously, a future decision by Trump’s Supreme Court might declare that “fake news” (read: any form of non-pro-Trump news) will be incompatible with the constitution.

This will allow the Trump administration to act against “fake news” and what he defines as left-wing “scaremongering”. This might also lead to self-censorship among journalists. The historian Timothy Snyder calls this, anticipatory obedience.

More importantly, far right Trumpism will re-define the rule of law. Formally, there is a relatively clear separation of powers with mutual checks and balances. Façade-democracy will assure that this will appear to remain to the unsuspecting voter. This is a key element of façade-democracy.

Yet, in reality, the balance is greatly distorted favouring far right Trumpism. Meanwhile, the US Congress will largely fail to exert any serious oversight of the Trump government.

Power will increasingly concentrate in the hands of Donald Trump. The Trump Supreme Court has already paved the way for this.

Simultaneously, the oppositional Democrats will be unable to influence the modification of parliamentarian “House rules” or control parliamentary committees.

Worse, Montesquieu’s separation of political power into executive power (Trump), judiciary power (courts), and legislative power (parliament) will be re-fused and will come under the control of far right Trumpism.

Far right Trumpism also means that there will only be very limited interventions by the courts. This will create a situation where state power is “formally” subject to law, but there will be a distinct tendency for higher courts to no longer rule against the will of the Trump government.

Beyond that, state institutions like the audit offices, media regulatory bodies, the prosecutor’s general office, and even administrative units like the tax authority will politically be aligned and used for purposes of maintaining power for far right Trumpism.

In the Trump administration, meritocracy – officials selected on merit – will be replaced by a focus on political reliability and loyalty to Trumpism in, for example, selection processes.

The standard of excellence will be replaced by a test of affiliation to far right Trumpism. Dismissing judges outside the normal procedure will become the norm.

Aligned to the ideological narratives of far right Trumpism, the regime’s core objective is to remain in power. Nepotism and corruption serve this purpose. Given this context, rules will be put in place to no longer prosecute pro-Trump officeholders engaged in corruption.

Yet, these are put in place by people who are themselves corrupt. Meanwhile, even when court judgments become legally binding, they no longer reflect societal expectations but the expectations of far right Trumpism.

The Trump system of façade-democracy is set up to support high-level corruption. At the same time, the judicial system is less and less capable of acting independently.

While many civil rights in the USA are legally codified and protected – at least formally – future institutional adjustments reflecting far right Trumpism will tend to undermine this protection.

Meanwhile, façade-democracy also means that the institutional system remains structured as a formal democratic parliamentary democracy with a formal separation of powers, formal checks and balances, and a vertical administrative system. However, there will be a shift towards authoritarianism and the erosion of democratic principles.

Authoritarian structures will infiltrate many sectors of the state and society, including state institutions, parts of the media system, the judiciary, and the culture and the scientific sectors.

Under far right Trumpism, the role of Congress will gradually shrink even further. Façade-democracy also means that many state institutions remain formally independent.

However, their work will drastically be influenced by the MAGA-Republican party and by far right Trumpism. Concurrently, political power will become increasingly concentrated in the hands of Donald Trump.

Legislation – including a new electoral law and stringent media law – will be tailored so that both consolidate and serve far right Trumpism.

Trump’s party will co-opt state institutions for partisan objectives, solidifying his hold on power. Consequently, many of the USA’s national debates will be tainted by illiberal, xenophobic, racist, and ultra-nationalist narratives.

As known, Donald Trump will foster closer ties with authoritarian countries and leaders, such as Russia, China, North Korea, Hungary, etc. This will be to the disadvantage of international institutions like the European Union, the UN, and NATO.

In the end, the USA under far right Trumpism, democratic performance is set to significantly deteriorate during the next four years of the Donald Trump government.

Following the playbook of Hungary, Donald Trump’s main priorities will be the reduction of political competition and entrenching the power of his group.

If successful, Donald Trump’s version of façade-democracy, will mean that – maybe not Donald Trump himself – but his far right Trumpism will hold on to power while still holding parliamentary elections in the future. It may not be totally ruled out that – in the outlined façade-democracy scenario – Trump will seek to anchor the USA wholly in the world’s autocratic camp.

Yet, it is unlikely that large sections of the US population will accept a complete change of camps. Most political attitudes are still dominantly pro-Western, pro-European and pro-democracy – despite Trump’s scapegoating, blaming others, smear campaigns, and the politics of resentment.

In order to offer an alternative to Trump’s right-wing populist-autocratic regime, America’s democratic opposition must go beyond mere electoral alliances of convenience, establish a credible and perhaps even charismatic candidate to challenge Trumpism.

However, it will remain uncertain whether future elections will actually offer a real possibility for change given that many of the USA’s oversight institutions will be filled with party loyalists, stooges, and lackeys.

Even if America’s democratic opposition were to secure a single election victory, it might no longer – substantially – alter the entire system of far right Trumpism.

Trumpism will be deeply entrenched across various facets of the political, social, cultural, media, and economic landscape. This scenario could potentially trigger enduring political tensions between real democracy and Trump’s façade-democracy.

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