Pakistan’s escalating repression in Balochistan, particularly against the Baloch Yakjehti Committee (BYC) and other activists, has laid bare the state’s shift towards an explicitly authoritarian model—a so-called “hard state.” For the Baloch people, however, Pakistan has always been a hard state—one that has historically relied on military rule, enforced disappearances, and economic marginalization to suppress their aspirations for autonomy. The abduction and detention of BYC leaders, including Dr. Mahrang Baloch, Sammi Deen Baloch, Beebow Baloch, Shahji Sibghat Ullah, and Beebarg Baloch, underscore a desperate attempt to suffocate a movement that refuses to be silenced.

The violent crackdown on peaceful protests, enforced disappearances, and extrajudicial killings expose the military establishment’s strategy of coercion. However, history and recent developments suggest that this strategy is not only failing but accelerating the resistance it seeks to crush.

The Jaffar Express Hijacking and Pakistan’s “Hard State” Doctrine

The hijacking of the Jaffar Express, claimed by the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA), was a turning point in Pakistan’s security discourse. In response, Pakistan’s Chief of Army Staff Asim Munir signaled a shift towards a “hard state,” reinforcing the military’s approach of unbridled force over political resolution. This declaration serves as an admission of failure: Pakistan has lost the ability to control Balochistan through conventional governance, relying instead on brute repression. But this is not new—Pakistan’s relationship with Balochistan has always been defined by force rather than governance, with successive regimes treating it as a colony rather than an equal federating unit. If past actions are any indicator, it means intensified military operations, increased disappearances, expanded internet blackouts, and more public executions disguised as counterterrorism.

Pakistan’s framing of the Baloch resistance as externally sponsored terrorism conveniently ignores the systematic economic exploitation, political disenfranchisement, and military occupation that have fueled the struggle for decades. The hijacking of the Jaffar Express was not an isolated act but part of a larger insurgency that has grown in direct proportion to state violence. The military’s claim that “the rules of the game have changed” suggests a willingness to escalate repression even further, but history suggests that such tactics only lead to greater instability.

The Crackdown: Detention, Disappearances, and Massacres

The latest wave of repression has been unprecedented in its scale and brazenness. The forced detention  of BYC leaders were followed by a broader campaign against protesters, with live ammunition, tear gas, and brutal beatings used against unarmed demonstrators. The state’s internet blackout in parts of Balochistan was an attempt to hide the extent of the violence, but reports still emerged of mass arrests and killings.

Among the most alarming developments has been the systematic targeting of Baloch Yakjehti Committee’s leadership. Dr. Mahrang Baloch’s abduction was particularly symbolic; as a nominee of the Nobel Peace Prize and the central leader of BYC, she represents the new generation of Baloch resistance—one that operates within civil society but is treated as an existential threat by the state. Other leaders like Beebarg Baloch, Shahji Sibghat Ullah, and Sammi Deen Baloch, have faced similar fates, with little to no legal recourse.

Extrajudicial killings have also surged. The massacre in Quetta, where security forces opened fire on demonstrators, killing several, is part of a pattern. The attack on Akhtar Mengal’s march from Khuzdar to Quetta, as well as the grenade attack on the BYC sit-in in Sariab, reveal how the state is resorting to hybrid warfare—using both direct military action and proxy attacks to eliminate dissent.

State Narratives vs. Reality

Pakistan’s media has pushed narratives framing the Baloch movement as foreign-funded extremism, a strategy aimed at discrediting legitimate grievances. This has been a longstanding tactic; since 1948, every Baloch uprising has been met with the same accusations of foreign interference, rather than any introspection about why Pakistan has always been a hard state for the Baloch. The growing prominence of women-led movements, like BYC, has exposed the state’s contradictions—how does Pakistan justify branding peaceful activists as security threats while claiming to uplift Balochistan?

The crackdown on Baloch intellectuals also reflects the state’s fear of an emerging counter-narrative. The enforced disappearance of scholars, doctors, and civil servants—people who have nothing to do with Baloch militants—demonstrates that the state is not just at war with militants but with an entire generation of Baloch thinkers. The claim that the Balochistan government is sending Baloch students to Oxford and Harvard rings hollow when the same government is disappearing PhD scholars and young professionals.

Why Pakistan’s Strategy is Failing

Despite—or perhaps because of—the state’s aggressive approach, resistance is escalating. Protests are not only continuing but growing, spreading beyond Balochistan and gaining attention in Pakistan’s urban centers. More significantly, Baloch armed groups have intensified their operations, carrying out increasingly sophisticated attacks on Pakistani security forces. The rise of Baloch armed resistance in urban centers suggests that the insurgency is evolving, adapting to Pakistan’s militarized policies.

The Baloch struggle is no longer just about human rights; it is about survival. The more the state abducts and kills, the more it pushes ordinary Baloch citizens towards radicalization. This cycle is one Pakistan’s military leadership fails to grasp. Repression might work in the short term, but it does not eliminate the root cause of the conflict. On the contrary, it entrenches resistance and deepens anti-state sentiment.

Balochistan’s Resistance and Pakistan’s Global Isolation

Pakistan’s actions in Balochistan are no longer escaping international scrutiny. The forced disappearances of high-profile activists like Dr. Mahrang Baloch have drawn condemnation from human rights organizations. Reports of torture and inhumane treatment in detention have only added to Islamabad’s growing list of human rights violations.

Moreover, Pakistan’s economic situation—already dire—means that international financial institutions are taking note of its domestic instability. Foreign investors, particularly in China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), are growing wary of the escalating violence in Balochistan. The attacks on Chinese projects by Baloch militants highlight that security cannot be imposed through force alone. If Pakistan continues on its current path, it risks not only losing Balochistan but also isolating itself further on the global stage.

Policy Recommendations for International Actors

To address Pakistan’s escalating human rights abuses in Balochistan, the international community must take concrete and coordinated action. Mere condemnations have proven insufficient; stronger measures are needed to ensure accountability and protect the rights of the Baloch people.

Human rights organizations and foreign governments should exert diplomatic and economic pressure on Pakistan, including targeted sanctions against military and intelligence officials responsible for enforced disappearances and extrajudicial killings.

The United Nations must dispatch an independent fact-finding mission to investigate human rights violations in Balochistan. This mission should be granted unfettered access to affected regions, ensuring transparency in reporting and holding perpetrators accountable under international law. The reluctance of Pakistani authorities to allow such investigations should not deter the global community from demanding oversight.

The European Union and the United States should make financial aid, military assistance, and trade agreements contingent on Pakistan demonstrating tangible improvements in its human rights record. Precedents exist where economic leverage has compelled authoritarian regimes to alter repressive policies, and Pakistan should be held to the same standard.

International media outlets must increase their coverage of the Baloch crisis to counter the state-controlled narrative that dismisses legitimate grievances as terrorism. Greater media attention will not only inform global audiences but also put pressure on Pakistan’s allies to reassess their support for its security apparatus.

Finally, a global coalition should be established to systematically monitor and document human rights violations in Balochistan. This coalition should collaborate with local activists, human rights defenders, and legal experts to bring cases before international courts and advocacy platforms. Ensuring the safety of Baloch activists—who often face severe reprisals—is crucial for sustaining resistance against state oppression.

The time for symbolic gestures has passed. If the international community truly upholds democratic values and human rights, it must take decisive action to end the ongoing repression in Balochistan.

The Hard State Myth and Pakistan’s Repression Failure

Pakistan’s “hard state” fantasy is a self-destructive delusion, but for Balochistan, this has been the grim reality for decades. The Pakistani state has never operated as a representative democracy for the Baloch; instead, it has maintained control through militarized violence and coercion. The continued repression of movements like the Baloch Yakjehti Committee (BYC) and other peaceful activists will not extinguish the Baloch struggle. On the contrary, these acts of state violence only intensify the resolve of the people. What Pakistan fails to realize is that repression pushes the Baloch further underground and fuels a movement that will not be silenced.

The choice before Pakistan is clear: either engage in meaningful dialogue and address the legitimate demands of the Baloch people or persist in its cycle of state brutality, further alienating the population and pushing the conflict toward greater instability. The suppression of peaceful activists and intellectuals, such as those within BYC, eliminates critical pathways for peaceful resolution, forcing the conflict to grow more entrenched and resistant to any form of political reconciliation.

The world is watching, and history has already shown the fate of regimes that rely on force to sustain their grip on power. The resistance in Balochistan is not diminishing—it is growing in strength and sophistication. Pakistan’s military leadership, in its belief that it can crush this movement through sheer might, is already on the losing side of history. For the Baloch people, the struggle will continue to evolve, and ultimately, they will prevail—not only because of their resilience, but because the very forces used to suppress them will be the catalyst for their eventual triumph.

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