There’s no other way to say this: worrying about how much it costs to prevent catastrophic climate change is patently absurd.
It is absurd in a political system where money is simply conjured out of thin air and trillions of dollars are pumped into the black hole of waste that is the Pentagon. And it is absurd when the stakes are the survival of civilization itself, at which point the deficit isn’t exactly going to matter a whole lot.
But let’s play this game for a moment, since this selective deficit hand-wringing continues to be one of the main weapons of the fossil fuel lobby and its proxies in Congress and the media. Even if we accept this ridiculous discourse on its own terms, the destruction heaped on the East Coast this past month by hurricanes Helene and Milton alone — both of which were made extra destructive as a result of the rapidly warming climate — shows that it is far more expensive to do nothing about climate change than to invest in mitigating its effects and preventing it from getting worse.
Let’s take the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), the Biden administration’s chief accomplishment on fighting climate change, and the most recent target of this price-point fearmongering. First estimated to cost $370 billion, its unlimited tax credits have led some economists to revise this estimate upward to anywhere between around half a trillion dollars to, on the high end, more than $1 trillion. That’s a lot of money.
Now let’s look at the hurricane damage from just these two events in the past month. The most recent assessment of the damage left by Helene, carried out by experts at AccuWeather, puts the total estimate for damage and economic loss — meaning disruptions to travel and business, and the hurricane’s impact on future tourism and other industries — at $225–250 billion.
A different estimate by analytics firm CoreLogic that looks only at the physical damage puts it at $30.5–$47.5 billion. Moody’s Analytics puts the recovery cost at $34 billion. Only a small fraction of this will actually be covered by insurers, because few people in the regions affected are covered for flood damage.
We’re still waiting for more accurate figures for Milton’s damage, but according to President Joe Biden, a preliminary estimate puts it at $50 billion. Moody’s has put it at anywhere between $50–$85 billion, when property damage and economic losses are combined, though other analysts have put it at as much as $175 billion in the worst-case scenario for the Tampa region alone.
These figures will almost certainly be revised in the months ahead. But already we can see that, on the lowest end, just these two disasters — disasters that, remember, will become the new normal as the climate heats up — adds up to roughly one-twelfth of the high end of estimates of what the IRA will spend over ten years. If we take the higher end of the damage estimates — or about $335 billion — that’s about one third of that same total, and it comes close to equaling the original price tag of the IRA, which, again, is the planned spending over the next decade.
And that’s only these two hurricanes. We’re not counting how six of this century’s other deadliest hurricanes add up to more than half a trillion dollars in damage. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration data shows the number of severe weather disasters has been steadily rising year by year, with twenty-eight disasters last year that cost more than $1 billion a piece, like the Maui wildfire, which caused $5.5 billion in damage. Nor are we counting the damage and economic loss from more destructive wildfires, worse droughts, increased non-hurricane-related flooding, and countless other climate-related disasters and disruptions that are going to become more and more common if we do nothing — or, even worse, actively fuel the problem, as both presidential candidates are currently promising.
Analysts have already put the economic cost of climate change into hard numbers. Back in 2021, insurance company Swiss Re predicted climate change would slice global economic output by 11 to 14 percent by 2050, or a staggering $23 trillion reduction — including shrinking the US economy by 7 percent. (By contrast, the US economy shrank 4.3 percent due to the Great Recession). A more recent study from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany predicts that by 2049, climate change would reduce global income by 19 percent, or $38 trillion, with US households seeing their incomes drop 11 percent.
But to reiterate, even talking about the monetary cost of climate change is somewhat absurd in the face of its vast human consequences: death, disease, starvation, war, political instability, and mass human displacement, not just from other countries but within the United States too. The smartest thing to do, and the biggest bang for the US taxpayer’s buck, would be to start making unprecedented investments — ones much larger and more wide-ranging — in the infrastructure, technology, logistical resources, and expanded safety net that we will need to resolve this accelerating crisis and make sure Americans’ living standards are safeguarded.
The easiest way to do that is to divert the bulk of the more than $1 trillion a year the United States already spends on the military, a gargantuan sum that is not only wasteful, but fuels the climate crisis (since war and the military are some of the world’s worst fossil fuel polluters), while regularly endangering Americans. The price is simply too high not to do it.
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4 Comments
Hello,
Your comment suggests you may be thinking the article’s intent is to convince by its cost benefit accounting the firms that are causing the problems that they should behave differently. I don’t know the author but I instead read it as saying here is what’s happening, and movements need to force government intervention which is quite different than thinking corporations will alter their choices due to costs others bear. The accounting is to motivate and also arm movements with information useful for organizing.
It also sounds like you may be thinking that in order to avoid economic and social calamity brought on by ecological insanity we have to first win a new economy because short of that nothing will work. Well, I am a constant advocate of a new economy, not just a name that lacks much substance but real fundamentally different institutions, and I certainly wish we could win it soon enough for its new institutions to end fossil fuel use and other ecologically disastrous trends, but sadly the likelihood of that is incredibly low. On the other hand, the possibility of militant movements coercing current corrupt and despicable institutions to act to mitigate climate disasters as we also keep seeking the new economy, is quite high, given sufficient organizing. Indeed, seeking the new economy and seeking changes now are mutually necessary.
Hi Michael, thanks for your response. I admire your writing, and agree that Branko Marcetic might not be beseeching corporate America to act in the public interest. However, it is unclear to me who he aims to convince. In the following quote it appears that he is directly attempting to sway those tinkering with the levers of governmental policy:
“The smartest thing to do, and the biggest bang for the US taxpayer’s buck, would be to start making unprecedented investments — ones much larger and more wide-ranging — in the infrastructure, technology, logistical resources, and expanded safety net that we will need to resolve this accelerating crisis and make sure Americans’ living standards are safeguarded.”
I am rather dumbfounded with the warnings that Marcetic makes about climate disasters shrinking the US economy, since said shrinkage ought to be employed preemptively, rather than unwillingly endured once the shit hits the fan. I am equally dismayed by Marcetic’s thought that America’s living standards can, or ought to be “safeguarded.”
Certainly the bloated, consumeristic assault that US corporations have perpetrated against the biosphere needs to be dismantled rather than safeguarded. But Marcetic is rather outraged by the concept of Degrowth and has advocated for “green-growth” or eco-modernism – systems that promote technology as a solution that allows for both lavish lifestyles and sustainability – a toxic myth in my opinion.
We are in quite a predicament with the biosphere. Performative political rhetoric and incremental deference to entrenched political systems may kick the can down the road regarding a number of human rights issues – but climate is another matter. Absolutely radical and immediate change is all that stands in the way of mass extinction and societal collapse. The climate narrative on the left is all too often tepid and vague. Extinction Rebellion (XR) has demanded that governments tell the truth about climate. That won’t ever happen, but progressive writers ought to do as much. BTW, I am Phil Wilson, a frequent writer on progressive platforms and sometimes posted on ZNet.
I incorrectly recalled Branko Marcetic as the author of several pieces @ Jacobin trashing degrowth and promoting ecomodernism. The authors @ Jacobin taking an ecomodernist approach were Matt Huber and Leigh Phillips, and I have no evidence that Marcetic had anything to do with a position that I (and many environmental writers) find to be reprehensible Therefore I owe Mr Marcetic an apology. I do detect some tincture of ecomodernism in the rather cavalier suggestion that “preventing climate change is not expensive.” If the author means that it is less expensive to employ Draconian effort than to allow the planet to burn to a crisp – its hard to disagree with that. But if the implication is that there is a simple fix to climate overheating, or that technology has a viable answer (without massive political changes), that is not a responsible position.
The idea that the US political/economic system can redeploy the market structures already in place to mitigate climate overheating is beyond absurdity. It is the nature of rapacious capitalism to think in terms of immediate profits and not long term consequences. So why even talk about cost/benefit effects as it impacts the entire culture? The fossil fuel profiteers don’t pay a dime for hurricane cleanup. The only way that cost/benefits has any meaning would be in the context of a socialist economy in which both the fossil fuel industry and the systems responsible for infrastructure were under the same umbrella of government control. BTW, readers should know that Jacobin has taken a vehement stand against Degrowth – quite likely the only theoretical framework with any chance of having some impact on our trajectory. This piece promotes the toxic bullshit that corporations can spend their way out of our predicament. And who is going to tell Raytheon their tax payer funded trough is being redirected to make solar panels. But wait, how can corporations make profitable solar technology without the military might to steal rare metals from the global south?