Qatari mediators’ announcement of a ceasefire in Gaza to begin on 19 January ending the 15-month genocide inflicted on the besieged and decimated territory has brought relief to Palestinians at the prospect of respite from the daily regime of Israeli bombardment, starvation and disease. The belated intervention of the Trump administration and the stubborn resistance on the ground, appears set to bring at least a temporary halt to the slaughter of civilians. But the complex nature of the deal between Israel and Hamas, particularly in the transition from phase one – involving the exchange of Israeli captives for Palestinian prisoners – to phase two involving another round of captive-prisoner exchanges and the complete withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza, is fraught with risk. For example, Israel has insisted that no written guarantees be part of the deal that preclude the resumption of attacks at the end of phase one. Moreover, there is no agreement on the administration of Gaza post-conflict if the deal survives to the third stage that includes the reconstruction of Gaza, a mammoth undertaking given UN estimates that there are 42 million tonnes of debris in the Strip from partially or completely destroyed civilian infrastructure, including 90 percent of residences.
Ceasefire violations in Lebanon
The prospects for the Gaza ceasefire are hardly auspicious given Israel’s repeated and near daily violations of its “ceasefire” with Hezbollah agreed on November 27th. According to the UN, at least 27 civilians have been killed by Israeli forces post-ceasefire adding to the 4,000 Lebanese killed between October 2023 and November 2024. Moreover, access restrictions have been imposed on more than 60 towns and villages in southern Lebanon, and UNIFIL (United Nations Interim Forces in Lebanon) troops operating in the area have expressed concern at the continued destruction by Israeli forces of residential areas, agricultural land and road networks. According to the terms of the November 2024 ceasefire, Israeli forces are to withdraw from southern Lebanon and Hezbollah is to move its military infrastructure north of the Litani River by 26 January. This is to be followed by the deployment of the Lebanese army into the territory but, in the absence of an enforcement mechanism, it isn’t clear how the terms of the ceasefire can be imposed amid media reports that Israel intends extending its occupation of southern Lebanon.
Meanwhile, Lebanon is still struggling to come to terms with the impact of the 14-month conflict with Israel, particularly the period of escalation between September and November 2024. Although 868,947 people returned to their homes after 27 November, 115,439 people remain displaced mostly from the Saida, Nabatieh, Beirut, Tyre, and Aley districts. By January 7th, there were a reported 87,000 arrivals from Syria into Lebanon’s Baalbek Governorate, 35,000 of whom are living in 187 temporary shelters lacking adequate heat, fuel, water, and sanitation. Many of these shelters are schools which means that students, particularly in south and east Lebanon, are denied an education or forced to attend temporary learning spaces. The World Bank estimates that 150,000 public and 300,000 private school students have been impacted by the conflict in the 2024-25 academic year with public schools belatedly re-opening on November 4th 2024. However, the sector most impacted by the 14-month conflict is housing, with 99,000 housing units destroyed, mostly in the El Nabatiyeh and South Governorates. The total cost of the damage to the physical infrastructure in Lebanon, including housing, between October 8 2023 and October 27 2024 is estimated by the World Bank to be $3.4 billion. This is in a country already six-years into an economic crisis that has seen the currency lose 90 percent of its value and 80 percent of the population fall below the poverty line.
Palestinians displaced again in Lebanon
Palestinian refugees have also been severely impacted by the 14-month conflict in Lebanon, particularly residents of refugee camps in southern Lebanon that have been targeted by the Israeli military. They include Ein El-Hilweh camp located in Saida, the largest Palestinian refugee camp in Lebanon, and El-Buss and Rashidieh camps in the historic port city of Tyre, which was repeatedly targeted by Israeli airstrikes. The UN agency for Palestinian refugees, UNRWA, activated eleven emergency shelters for 990 internally displaced families (3,316 people), who were mostly Palestinian refugees from Lebanon and Syria. Six of the 11 emergency shelters are schools located in Nahr El-Bared, a Palestinian camp near the city of Tripoli in northern Lebanon. I visited the shelters in Nahr El-Bared in the week that ended with the ceasefire on 27 November, and spoke with some of the displaced Palestinian refugees. I met with Marwan Taher Mabed from Rashidieh camp in Tyre who was in a wheel chair having suffered wounds to his foot and shoulder in an Israeli strike. Marwan was sharing one of the classrooms in Mazar and Majedo Co-Educational School, and struggled to sleep on a mattress on the floor in the cold overnight temperatures. This visit was on 26 November, the day before the ceasefire, and everyone I met pledged to return home as soon as it was announced. But some of those in the shelter were concerned as to whether their home was still standing and faced the possibility of continued displacement.
UNRWA under threat
The provision of these emergency shelters across Lebanon reinforces the importance of UNRWA’s role in providing emergency relief and services to Palestinian refugees post-ceasefire that include healthcare, food, employment and education. Vital humanitarian services are being jeopardized by the withdrawal of US funding and the passing of two bills by the Israeli Knesset that will ban UNRWA from operating in Gaza, the West Bank and East Jerusalem. The need for UNRWA’s humanitarian role has arguably never been greater, given the catastrophic health crisis created by Israel’s complete siege of Gaza since October 2023. The western powers that have abandoned Gaza to the barbarism of genocide need to ensure that Israel is held to the terms of the ceasefire and denied the kind of unilateral breaches we have seen in Lebanon. And, the millions of activists across the world who have marched and protested in solidarity with Palestine since October 2023 need to remain steadfast in maintaining pressure on our governments to prevent any Israeli backsliding in the delivery of the ceasefire in Gaza as we have seen in Lebanon.
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