NEW DELHI – Furious work is in progress in preparation of perhaps the most high-profile visit short of US President George W Bush arriving in India. Chinese Prime Minister Wen Jiabao will be in India from April 9-12 to tie up several ends, the least being the consequences of the pro-India overtures by the Bush dispensation, as well as to discuss a grand alliance of Asian nations spanning Russia-China-India on the lines of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) to take on the Atlantic alliance and the US.

It is not without reason that in his first meeting with Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh last year, Wen remarked, “When we shake hands, the whole world will be watching.” Reiterating his earlier pledge, Wen has already described his India visit as the most important event in his calendar this year.

In his first comment, Manmohan said Wednesday that he was looking forward to Wen’s visit. Speaking in Mauritius, where he is currently visiting, Manmohan said he hoped China and India could agree on guiding principles for resolving the two countries’ border issues and that there should be a joint effort to find common ground. Manmohan said the populations of China and India accounted for about one-third of the planet, and the establishment of friendly relations between the two countries would have a great impact on Asia and the world.

Chinese officials have laid virtual siege at the Foreign Ministry in Delhi, spanning out in teams to discuss various aspects of the slew of treaties and agreements that Wen and Manmohan are due to sign. The omnipresent, if not overbearing, presence of the US is very much evident. As one official remarked, “The Chinese have been observing the US’s intentions of closely engaging India by transferring nuclear technology for energy, arms supplies, talks on missile defense as well as stepping up economic relations. The response of China will be equally powerful. Instead of taking on the US single-handedly, China will seek to work out a grand alliance of nations including India and Russia that will be able to take on the economic and military might of US. People right now talk of a unipolar world, by the quarter of this century the world will be bipolar, with China as the power to be reckoned with, and by the half of the century tripolar with India in the picture.”

It is obvious that China is still smarting from the visit of US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and the highlighting of issues that always raise the hackles of the Chinese establishment – democracy, human rights and Taiwan. Rice espouses the cause of India as a counterweight to rising Chinese power in Asia and the imprints of her views are only being more clearly established. China is concerned about an anti-China “Asian NATO” front with Japan, Australia and India joining the US to “contain” China.

There is more than one reason China wants to build its relationship with India. It is looking to sign a “friendship treaty” similar to the one with Russia with the intention of checking expanding US and European military as well as economic global influences. India, which follows a “one China” policy is keen to engage with any nation that brings about a structural change to its economy.

Economic synergies Indeed, if there is one defining aspect that has tilted India toward building bridges with China, it has been trade. With a high level of growth and rising incomes, the Indian economy presents enormous potential, and so do the Chinese for India.

With US$13 billion in bilateral trade, up from $1 billion a year a decade back, an India-China joint group has been studying the synergies of a possible free-trade agreement (FTA), which is being opposed by certain quarters of Indian industry – which is also against regional FTAs with Thailand and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations – due to the fear of Chinese dumping on the Indian market. The feeling, though, is that Indian industry is driven by a protectionist instinct that they need to shun and learn how to stand up to international competition.

Further economic synergies are being worked out in light of Sino-Indian joint bidding in international energy projects, particularly in third countries. The energy ministers will appoint a joint task force to work out the details, and if there is convergence, an agreement could well be in the offing. In an indication of Chinese willingness to study as well as cooperate with India’s hugely successful information-technology sector, the Chinese leader will touch down first in Bangalore on April 9 from Sri Lanka. Wen will visit the offices of Huawei Technology, a Chinese IT company, and the Indian Space Research Organization in Bangalore before arriving in New Delhi the next day.

The Indian Express comments, “Manmohan Singh and Wen Jiabao now have an opportunity to approach the future bilateral relationship with a positive and pragmatic mindset. For a change, they have a growing economic relationship marked by booming trade, which reached US$14 billion last year from almost nothing in the mid-1990s. There is talk of comprehensive economic cooperation, if not a free-trade area, between the two Asian giants … India and China should be looking to increase the volume of two-way trade … to about $25 [billion to] $30 billion in about five years.”

Boundary question The boundary dispute, however, still remains the main stumbling block to a complete overhaul of the Sino-Indian entente. Although the two countries have agreed not to get bogged down by territorial disputes, it goes without saying that there is a need to set up a framework within which the two countries can operate in order to move things forward. The two governments have already appointed special representatives who have been negotiating over the past two years. The joint working committee set up by the two countries on the boundary issue is scheduled to meet this week in Beijing in a bid to narrow differences. Foreign Secretary Shyam Saran and Chinese Vice Minister Wu Dawei will head their respective delegations.

Matters have come a long way since the 1962 border war and the diplomatic spat that followed India’s nuclear tests in 1998. Wen is expected to announce China’s formal acknowledgement of the north Indian state of Sikkim as a part of the Indian union. The process of resolving differences over Sikkim was initiated during then Indian prime minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s landmark visit to China in 2003, when the two countries agreed to start trade across Sikkim’s border. Wen is expected to end any uncertainty on China’s part by publicly acknowledging Sikkim as an Indian state.

Officials, however, talk of one key area that needs to be resolved before a final resolution can be reached. China wants major territorial concessions on Tawang in Arunachal Pradesh (in northeastern India), which India is in no position to concede. It is important for India and China to explore the Tawang question in a manner that throws up solutions that can finally result in creating a sound political foundation to the economic one that is already being laid.

The talk is that India may formally announce its support to the anti-secession law passed by Chinese parliament to check any move by Taiwan to declare independence unilaterally, if there is progress in the boundary talks. Some 40 countries, including Russia and Pakistan, have supported the legislation, while India has not issued any statement so far.

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