The “low” level of violence between Israel and the Palestinians since the Gaza ceasefire on 26 November 2006 had reached alarming totals even before this weekend’s escalation left nine Palestinians dead and led Hamas to end the ceasefire. The Institute’s Senior Fellow Nadia Hijab shows how the missed opportunity to extend the Gaza ceasefire to the West Bank and the slow motion nature of negotiations have both helped to undermine diplomatic efforts.

The Daily Reality of Death vs. the Dance of Diplomacy

For much of the world, the violence on the ground since the 26 November 2006 ceasefire was negotiated between Israel and the Palestinian Authority has been overshadowed by diplomatic maneuvers, including four trips by United States Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, the 8 February 2007 Mecca Agreement that led to the Palestinian unity government, and the Arab peace initiative re-launched at the 28-29 March 2007 Arab summit. Moreover, Israeli incursions, “targeted assassinations,” and arrests, and Palestinian rocket fire, have become so commonplace that they are almost taken for granted as par for the course.

Yet the daily figures add up to alarming totals. From 26 November 2006 up until 3 April 2007,

• Israeli forces in the West Bank killed 51 Palestinians, and three more Palestinians died from lack of care while stopped at checkpoints. Israeli forces wounded 154 Palestinians, and Israeli settlers wounded another eight. During their incursions, which included 314 arrest raids and 312 house searches, Israeli forces demolished 92 homes (other buildings were also partly or completely destroyed).
• Israeli forces in Gaza killed at least 13 Palestinians, wounded 56, and arrested 22 in land and sea attacks.
• Palestinian attacks, including rocket fire, killed 3 Israelis and injured 13.

The Impact of West Bank Attacks on the Gaza Ceasefire

Throughout the past five months, there has been a clear link between Israeli attacks on the West Bank and Palestinian rocket fire against Israel from Gaza. For example, on 27 November 2006, the day after the Gaza ceasefire was declared, Israeli forces raided several West Bank towns and killed a member of the Popular Resistance Committees (PRC) and a bystander. In retaliation, the AMB fired two rockets from Gaza causing no damage or injuries. On 4 December, Israel raided Tulkarm, capturing an AMB member and killing a bystander; on 6 December AMB fired three rockets into Gaza. Much the same pattern has continued to this day. While AMB and Islamic Jihad did not sign on to the November 2006 ceasefire, PA efforts to bring them on board almost succeeded – so much so that Israeli Premier Ehud Olmert himself noted a decrease in rocket attacks. [1] However, PA efforts were undermined by Israel‘s ongoing attacks on the West Bank to which the ceasefire was never extended, in spite of PA urging. Meanwhile, although Hamas fired no rockets after the Gaza ceasefire was declared in November 2006 and until it announced an end to the ceasefire today, Israeli Defense Minister Amir Peretz in early April announced a renewal of “pinpoint operations” in Gaza in order to prevent Hamas from allegedly exploiting the calm to strengthen its forces. [2]

Beyond the daily death and destruction, the majority of Palestinians under occupation now live in poverty. The respected British charity OXFAM cited plummeting incomes, mounting debt, and a meltdown of services in a call to resume direct aid to the PA. [3] In Gaza, the collapse of a cesspool wall on 26 March 2007 resulted in a flood in which 5 Palestinians were drowned and 25 injured, and several houses destroyed – a grim reminder that Israeli closures have left Palestinians unable to repair basic facilities since Israel’s summer 2006 bombing campaign. The Palestinian territories, particularly Gaza, are also suffering from an internal breakdown of law and order.

Motion – But Very Little Movement

Meanwhile, the diplomatic moves have yet to produce tangible results. The first of the planned biweekly meetings Rice initiated between Olmert and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas took place in Jerusalem on 15 April 2007 with mixed messages about progress on the issues. [4] The escalating violence is sure to put the next biweekly meeting, planned for Jericho, at risk. Positive moves in terms of Arab-Israeli negotiations have also been put at risk. Arab League foreign ministers on 18 April 2007 decided that Egypt and Jordan, both of which have peace treaties with Israel, should take the lead in promoting the Arab peace initiative with Israel. After the weekend escalation, Jordanian parliamentarians (both pro-government and Islamist) called for an “immediate halt” to negotiations with Israel. [5]

There is a vicious circle: Israel uses Palestinian attacks as justification for its raids, while Palestinians attack because they live under an Israeli occupation regime of ongoing land confiscation, settlement-building, killings, and arrests that violate their basic human rights as well as international conventions. The fact that the Gaza ceasefire was never extended to the West Bank has helped to perpetuate this vicious cycle. The violence – in which Palestinian losses far outweigh those of Israel – could threaten the stability of the entire region. Unless there is an immediate, comprehensive ceasefire throughout the occupied Palestinian territories and Israel, neither US nor Arab diplomacy has any chance of success.

The data on the situation on the ground were compiled from an advance copy of the chronology prepared by Michele K. Esposito for forthcoming issues of the Journal of Palestine Studies, and the 7 March to 3 April 2007 United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs Weekly Briefing Notes. Additional research by Program Assistant Paul Costic.

[1] Boston Globe 22 April 2007.
[2] Jewish Telegraphic Agency 3 April. Olmert authorized a resumption of pinpoint attacks on 26 December 2006 but the policy was not implemented.
[3] “Poverty in Palestine: the human cost of the financial boycott,” OXFAM Briefing Note, April 2007.
[4] According to the New York Times 16 April 2007, Reuters 17 April, and other reports, the Olmert-Abbas meeting included a private segment on the “political horizon” (although Israel publicly refused to discuss final status issues such as the rights of refugees, borders, and the status of Jerusalem); an exchange of the Israeli soldier captured by Palestinian groups in Gaza in June 2006 for some 1,400 of the 10,000 Palestinian prisoners held in Israeli jails; the Arab peace initiative; and an Israeli agreement to keep Gaza crossings open for longer periods.
[5] Khaleej Times 23 April 2007.

 

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