An Empty Deal           

 

An agreement has been signed in Honduras, and both sides are calling it an end to the four-month crisis. The most recent rounds of discussion began on October 7 and after failing to produce an agreement, three high ranking State Department officials traveled to Honduras to revive talks and hammer out an agreement. The agreement does not include amnesty, it will establish a government of reconciliation, calls for the recognition of elections, and creates a truth commission of dubious strength.  The most important point of the agreement is the return of President Manuel Zelaya to the presidency but don’t get too excited.  After seeking an opinion from the Supreme Court, Congress will get the final say on restoring Zelaya to his rightful place.

 

While virtually every media outlet is declaring victory for President Manuel Zelaya and commending the U.S. for standing on the side of democracy, the reality is much more nuanced.  While most of Latin America and even the U.S. have pushed for the restoration of Zelaya to the presidency as a prerequisite for legitimate elections, the U.S. has recently backed off from this position.  Thursday, Thomas Shannon, the Assistant Secretary for Western Hemisphere Affairs, said that “if there’s an agreement in the national dialogue, we think that is sufficient to open a space for international support for Honduras’s elections.” And so, not even two days after Shannon’s arrival in Honduras, an agreement has been signed.  The U.S. has already stated its belief that this agreement opens the door for elections, and the OAS and EU have been quick to follow suit, despite the fact that most international standards call for at least a 6 week process to adequately monitor elections.

 

But what has changed? Zelaya is still under siege at the Brazilian embassy, and his return to power is subject to Congressional approval.  With Zelaya’s return a prerequisite for legitimate elections, one might have thought that Congress would be quick to restore Zelaya in turn for elections being recognized.  The National Party candidate, Pepe Lobo, the favorite among presidential candidates, controls a near majority in the legislature and certainly has an interest in having elections seen as legitimate.  This pressure is now gone (at least from the United States), and there is no reason to think that Congress feels a need to reinstate Zelaya to get elections recognized.  An agreement was signed, no matter how weak, and now the electoral process has the full support of the U.S. This is exactly what the U.S. plan has been for weeks now.  The U.S. has blocked any OAS resolution calling for non-recognition of elections absent Zelaya’s return.  Behind the scenes, the U.S. ambassador to the OAS was doing even more, actively lobbying friendly governments in the hemisphere to recognize elections absent even an agreement.

 

Furthermore, the gross violations of human rights continue in Honduras.  The elections are just under one month away, and the three-month campaign that is required by law has gone by under a period of severe repression.  With opposition radio and TV stations still closed or restricted and the freedom to assemble gone, it is impossible to believe that the few candidates who did oppose the coup (Carlos H. Reyes and Cesar Ham) have had a fair shot at campaigning, nor will they. And the numerous deaths and thousands of human rights abuses, as documented by COFADEH and backed up by Human Rights Watch, Amnesty International and the Inter-American Court of Human Rights, have left Honduras quite far from an atmosphere of free and fair elections in less than four weeks.

 

Have any of the deep seeded issues that led to this crisis in the first place been addressed? The constitutional reform, which Zelaya’s support for led to the coup, is off the table.  As shown in a recent poll by Quinlan, Greenberg and Rosner, the majority of Hondurans support redrafting the Constitution as a way out of the crisis. The Constitution that was drafted in 1982, under the still powerful eye of the same military that carried out the coup four months ago. The coup accomplished what it aimed to, preventing the people from expressing their desire for a more participative and just Constitution, labeled “the worst in the World” by Costa Rican president Oscar Arias.  After four months of struggle, not just for the return of constitutional order but for real changes in Honduran society, the U.S. backed deal has dealt the final blow. The winner of next month’s elections will undoubtedly move their country back into the U.S. sphere of influence, away from ALBA and Petrocaribe.  The minimum wage increases will be threatened; the protection of state owned enterprises from private hands is already being dismantled.   The Resistance has pledged to continue their fight, and their righteous struggle will persist, now more organized and united than ever, but the best chance for Hondurans to profoundly better their country has at least temporarily passed.

 

Regardless of Zelaya’s return to power, the elections will now go forward with international support, without the Cuarta Urna and in an environment of military impunity (the military is now under the control of the Electoral Tribunal).  This is not a win for Zelaya or a sign that the U.S. will stand with democracy even if it is a left of center leader.  This is lipstick on a pig, and the pig is still a coup.

 

 

 

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