After a run-up that has included abstention calls and dozens of assassinations, Colombians will vote this weekend in a 15-point austerity referendum and elections for thousands of local and provincial offices.

The referendum, set for October 25, consists of proposals to freeze most public salaries for two years, cap pensions, cut the size of Congress, and curb political corruption. President Alvaro Uribe Vélez on October 16 warned of a fiscal crisis if voters do not approve the measure, the government news agency reported. ‘I don’t see much difference between what happened in Argentina and what could happen in Colombia with our [budget] deficit and our debt,’he said.

Colombia’s public debt is 52 percent of gross domestic product. If the referendum fails, officials have mentioned possible tax increases, provincial payroll reductions and repatriation of oil revenues deposited abroad. But Uribe has pledged to continue a military spending hike that began shortly after he took office in August 2002.

A quarter of the voting age population must participate for the referendum to be valid. Opposition parties and unions are calling for a boycott of the vote because, they say, the proposals would hurt the poor and give the government too much power. Polls show disinterest among most Colombians and widespread confusion over the proposals, which are lengthy and highly technical.

The elections, scheduled for the following day, are supposed to determine 30 provincial governors, 398 provincial lawmakers, 914 mayors, and 9,000 city and village council members. Their terms begin December 31.

But at least 30 candidates have been assassinated and a dozen kidnapped, according to the Defense Ministry. The recent victims include Jairo Gómez, a mayoral contender in the city of Genova, Quindio Province, and Julio César Castennanos, who was running for city council. Their bodies turned up in a ditch October 11 after a rural campaign stop the day before.

Colombia’s largest guerrilla group, the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), threatened a year ago to kill every candidate who refused to either strike a deal with it or quit. But politicians who seek a deal or show sympathy for the guerrillas risk murder by government-aligned paramilitaries. Other attacks come from crime syndicates that lack any apparent ideology.

Colombia has seen bloodier election seasons. In the late 1980s, paramilitaries killed thousands of members of the Patriotic Union, a party consisting largely of former guerrillas.

But this year’s violence has led to an unprecedented number of uncontested races, including two for governor. About 180 candidates have withdrawn, citing death threats. And nine municipalities in seven provinces lack a single candidate for mayor or council, according to the Interior Ministry.

The violence and the lack of candidates have embarrassed Uribe, who took office promising to extend government authority across the countryside and guaranteeing the presence of local governments. Uribe has vowed to protect the balloting with more than 300,000 troops and police officers, calling the weekend ‘a great plebiscite against terrorism.’

But a report this month from the government’s human rights office criticizes Uribe’s security efforts and notes that 166 mayors are governing from outside their municipalities.

Two weeks before the balloting, the FARC called for mass abstentions on both days, describing Colombian elections as a huge farce.

The nation’s main paramilitary federation, for its part, is running candidates across the country, the newsmagazine Semana reported August 18. After last year’s elections, United Self-Defense Forces of Colombia (AUC) leader Salvatore Mancuso boasted that 30 percent of the nation’s Congress represented the federation.


© 2003 Colombia Week. SOURCES: Associated Press, 10/5/03, 10/7/03, 10/11/03, 10/18/03; BBC, 10/5/03, 10/8/03, 10/10/03, 10/16/03; Cambio, 8/18/03, 9/29/03, 10/6/03, 10/13/03; El Espectador, 10/9/03, 10/11/03, 10/12/03, 10/13/03, 10/15/03, 10/16/03, 10/18/03; El Tiempo, 10/5/03, 10/6/03, 10/7/03, 10/8/03, 10/9/03, 10/10/03, 10/11/03, 10/12/03, 10/13/03, 10/14/03, 10/15/03, 10/16/03, 10/17/03, 10/18/03; Financial Times, 10/16/03; Los Angeles Times, 10/12/03; Miami Herald, 10/6/03, 10/10/03, 10/13/03; Reuters, 10/6/03, 10/7/03, 10/16/03; Semana, 8/25/03, 10/6/03, 10/13/03. Additional research and analysis by Colombia Week.

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