UKUWA koqoqosho lwentshayelelo, kunye nokunqula “imarike ezilawulayo,” kuye kwaba nemiphumo yako ephawulekayo ukuvuselelwa kwengcali yezoqoqosho yamaNgesi uJohn Maynard Keynes. Ayisiyo kuphela imibhalo yakhe eyenza uKeynes abe mihla. Kukwakho neemvakalelo ezigqugqisayo kubo, ezivuselela ukuphulukana nokholo kwixhego nokulangazelela into engekazalwa.
Ngaphandle kolwazi lwabo, ukucinga kwakhe ngemeko yaseYurophu emva kweMfazwe Yehlabathi yokuqala kunxulunyaniswa nomxube wethu wangoku wokuphoxeka nethemba: Kolu bhidano lwethu lwangoku lweenjongo, ngaba kukho umoya owaneleyo wokubona uluntu olwaneleyo ukuze kulondolozwe intlangano elungeleleneyo nentsonkothileyo. esiphila ngayo? UbuKomanisi bujongelwa phantsi ziziganeko; Isoshiyali, kwingcaciso yakudala, ayisenamdla ehlabathini; ubukhapitali buphulukene nokuzithemba. Ngaphandle kokuba abantu bamanyaniswe yinjongo enye okanye beqhutywa yimigaqo enenjongo, isandla somntu ngamnye siya kuba nxamnye nabanye abantu yaye usukelo olungalawulwayo lokulungelwa komntu ngamnye kungekudala lutshabalalisa yonke into.1
UKULAWULA IMATSHI
Loo rhulumente kufuneka angenelele ekulungiseni ukusilela kwemarike, kunjalo, sisifundo esikhulu esanikelwa nguKeynes, eso siphuma ekulweni kwakhe nengxaki yendlela yokukhupha ihlabathi kuDado oluKhulu lweminyaka yee-1930. Ekhohlo kuyo, imakethi, utshilo uKeynes, iyakufezekisa ukulingana phakathi konikezelo kunye nemfuno engaphantsi kwengqesho epheleleyo kwaye inokuhlala apho ngokungenasiphelo. Ukuqala uqoqosho lube yinkqubo eguquguqukayo eya kuluqhubela ekuqeshweni okupheleleyo, urhulumente kwafuneka asebenze njenge-deus ex machina, egalela imali eninzi kwinkcitho eya kudala "imfuno esebenzayo" eya kuthi iqale ngokutsha kwaye igcine injini yemoto. ukuqokelela inkunzi.
UMongameli Obama's $ 780-bhiliyoni stimulus package, kwakunye nezo zaseYurophu kunye China, classically Keynesian, ngamanyathelo pre-emptive ukunqanda ukudakumba; kunye nomlinganiselo woloyiso lweKeynes emva kweminyaka ephantse ibe yi-30 esentlango yimpembelelo esecaleni kwintetho kawonke-wonke yokubhomboloza kwamaRiphabhlikhi, uRuss Limbaugh, iCato Institute kunye nezinye iintlobo zeedayinaso zeneoliberal malunga “nokudlula kwityala elikhulu. nakwizizukulwana ezizayo.”
UKUNGCINGA NEMIMOYA YEZILWANYANA
Ukuvuselelwa kweKeynes ayisiyonto, nangona kunjalo, ngumbandela womgaqo-nkqubo. Kubandakanya kunye nokufuduswa kwethiyori yokucinga komntu ngokufanelekileyo ukwandisa umdla wakhe kwiziko lohlalutyo lwezoqoqosho ngeembono ezimbini. Enye kukwanda kokungaqiniseki ekuthathweni kwezigqibo, abatyali-mali abazama ukujongana nazo ngokusebenza kwingcinga ethomalalisayo kodwa engalindelekanga kakhulu yokuba ikamva liya kufana nelangoku, nangokuza nobuchule bokuqikelela nokulawula ikamva ngokusekelwe kwikamva. ezi ngcinga. Ingcamango ehambelanayo i-Keynes ehambelana nayo yingcamango yokuba uqoqosho aluqhutywa yi-rational calculus kodwa "yimimoya yezilwanyana" kwicala labadlali bezoqoqosho; oko kukuthi, ‘ngomnqweno wabo ozenzekelayo wokwenza izinto. (2)
Eyona nto iphambili phakathi kwale mimoya yezilwanyana kukuzithemba, ubukho okanye ukungabikho kwayo okusembindini wentshukumo edibeneyo eqhuba ukwandiswa kunye nokucutheka. Ayikokubala okuqiqiweyo kodwa yimiba yokuziphatha okanye yengqondo ephambili. Ngokwale mbono, uqoqosho lufana ne-manic-depressive eqhutywa kukungalingani kweekhemikhali ukusuka kwipali ukuya kwenye, ngongenelelo lukarhulumente kunye nolawulo oludlala indima efana naleyo ye-chemical mood stabilizers kwimeko ye-bipolar yekliniki. Utyalo-mali ayingombandela wokubala okusengqiqweni kodwa yinkqubo yobukrelekrele eyachazwa nguKeynes “njengomdlalo we-Snap, we-Old Maid, weZitulo zoMculo, into ekufuneka idluliselwe kwi-Old Maid-ityala eliyingozi-kummelwane kabani ngaphambi kokuba umculo uyayeka.” (3) Apha, ngokutsho kukaRobert Sidelsky, umbhali webhayoloji kaKeynes, “yimbonakalo eyaziwayo ‘yolonwabo olungekho ngqiqweni,’ olulandelwa luloyiko oluyimfama, oluye lwalawula le ngxaki yangoku.” (4)
IZOQOQOSHO NJENGAMAZINYO
Abatyali-mali abangalawulekiyo kunye nabalawuli abazithobayo abayibo kuphela abalinganiswa kwintlekele yakutshanje. I-hubris ye-neoliberal economists nayo yadlala indima, kwaye apha u-Keynes wayenokuqonda okufanelekileyo kwixesha lethu. Economics, wayibona, “njengenye yezi ndlela zintle, nezichubekileyo ezizama ukuhlangabezana nemeko yangoku ngokusuka kwinto yokuba sazi nto ingako ngekamva.” Ewe, waye, njengoko u-Skidelsky ephawula, "edume ngokuthandabuza malunga nezoqoqosho," kunye namanani akhe "ayimikhondo nje, izinto ezibangela ukucinga," kunokuba abonise iziqinisekiso okanye izinto ezinokwenzeka zeziganeko ezidlulileyo nezexesha elizayo. Ngomzekelo wabo we-rational homo economicus kwi-tatters kunye ne-econometrics kwi-direpute, i-economists yangoku iya kwenza kakuhle ukuthobela isiluleko sikaKeynes sokuba "i-economists ingakwazi ukulawula ukucingelwa njengabantu abathobekileyo, abanobuchule kwinqanaba kunye noogqirha bamazinyo, oko kuya kuba luncedo. ube mhle.”
Nangona kunjalo, nangona abaninzi besamkela uvuko lukaKeynes, abanye bayathandabuza malunga nokufaneleka kwakhe kwixesha langoku-kwaye ezi aziphelelanga kwi-neoliberal die-hards.
IMIDA YE-KEYNSIANISM
Enye into, abanye bathi, i-Keynesianism isisixhobo sokuvuselela uqoqosho lwelizwe, kwaye ukudityaniswa kwehlabathi kuye kwanzima kakhulu le ngxaki. Ngeminyaka yoo-1930 kunye no-1940, yayiyimeko yokuvuselela amandla emizi-mveliso kuqoqosho oludityanisiweyo longxowankulu olwalujikeleza urhwebo lwangaphakathi. Namhlanje, kunye namashishini amaninzi kunye neenkonzo eziye zatshintshelwa okanye zathunyelwa kwiindawo ezinomvuzo ophantsi, imiphumo ye-Keynesian-type stimulus programmes ebeka imali esandleni sabathengi ukuba bachithe kwimpahla iya kuba nefuthe elincinci kakhulu njengendlela yokubuyisela okuqhubekayo. . Iinkampani zamazwe ngamazwe kunye nokusingatha i-TNC i-China inokuvuna inzuzo, kodwa "isiphumo sokuphindaphinda" kuqoqosho olungekho kushishino olufana ne-US ne-Bhritane lunokuba luncinci kakhulu.
Okwesibini, owona mtsalane mkhulu kuqoqosho lwehlabathi ngumsantsa omkhulu—ngokumalunga nokwabiwa kwengeniso, ukugqugqisa kobuhlwempu, nomgangatho wophuhliso loqoqosho—phakathi koMntla noMzantsi. Inkqubo ye-Keynesian "yehlabathi" ye-stimulus yenkcitho exhaswa ngemali ngoncedo kunye neemali-mboleko ezivela eNyakatho yimpendulo encinci kakhulu kule ngxaki. Inkcitho ye-Keynesian inokuthintela ukuwa koqoqosho kwaye ikhuthaze ukukhula okuthile, kodwa ukukhula okuzinzileyo kuya kufuna uhlaziyo lwesakhiwo sohlobo olukhulu-uhlobo oluya kubandakanya ukuhlengahlengiswa kobudlelwane boqoqosho phakathi koqoqosho oluphakathi kongxowankulu kunye nomda wehlabathi. Eneneni, isiphelo semida—“amathanga” omhla kaKeynes—ayizange ibangele inkxalabo ingako kwindlela awayecinga ngayo.
Okwesithathu, imodeli kaKeynes yolawulo lobungxowankulu ibeke elinye ixesha endaweni yokubonelela ngesisombululo kwenye yeenkcaso ezisembindini zongxowankulu, nto leyo engunobangela wengxaki yezoqoqosho ekhoyo: leyo yokuvelisa ngokugqithisileyo, apho amandla okuvelisa adlula ukukhula kwemfuno esebenzayo, eqhuba ingeniso. . Apha, intwana yembali inokubeka izinto ngendlela efanelekileyo. Umbuso wobungxowankulu obuphenjelelwe yiKeynesian owavela emva kwexesha leMfazwe yesibini yeHlabathi kubonakala ngathi, okwexeshana, unakho ukoyisa ingxaki yokuveliswa kwemveliso ngokugqithisileyo ngolawulo lwayo lwemivuzo ephezulu kakhulu kunye nolawulo lobuchwepheshe lobudlelwane bobungxowankulu nabasebenzi. Nangona kunjalo, ukongezwa komthamo omtsha omkhulu ovela eJapan, eJamani nakumazwe asandula ukuhluma ngeminyaka yoo-1960 noo-1970, amandla ayo okwenza oku aqalisa ukudodobala, nto leyo eyakhokelela ekunyukeni kwamaxabiso okudumileyo okanye okwenzeka ngengozi yokudodobala nokunyuka kwamaxabiso ezinto kulo lonke ilizwe elihambele phambili kwezoshishino. ngasekupheleni kwe'70s.
I-Keynesian Consensus yawa, njengoko i-capitalism yayifuna ukuvuselela inzuzo yayo kwaye yoyise ingxaki yokuqokelela ngokugqithiseleyo ngokukrazula ukulungelelaniswa kwe-capital-labour, ukukhululwa, ukuchithwa, ukudityaniswa kwehlabathi kunye nokuxhaswa ngemali. Ngaloo ndlela, le migaqo-nkqubo ye-neoliberal yenze indlela yokuphuma kwi-conundrum yokuvelisa ngokugqithisileyo apho i-Keynesian yentlalontle yayiseke khona. Njengoko sisazi ngoku, baye basilela ukubuyisela “iminyaka yegolide” yobukapitali basemva kwemfazwe, endaweni yoko ekhokelele ekuwohlokeni koqoqosho lwanamhlanje. Akunjalo, nangona kunjalo, ukuba ukubuyela kwi-1980s ye-Keynesianism sisisombululo kwingxaki eqhubekayo yongxowankulu yokuvelisa ngokugqithisileyo.
I-LACUNA ENKULU
Okokugqibela, kwaye mhlawumbi owona mqobo mkhulu kwi-Keynesianism evuselelweyo, kukuhlaziywa kokusetyenziswa kwehlabathi kunye nemfuno engummiselo wayo ophambili wokuvuselela ubungxowankulu kumxholo wobunzima bemozulu. Ngelixa i-Keynes yokuqala yayinecala le-Malthusian, umsebenzi wakhe wamva awuzange ujongane nento esele iyingxaki phakathi kobungxowankulu kunye nokusingqongileyo. Umceli mngeni kuqoqosho kweli nqanaba kukunyusa amanqanaba okusetyenziswa kwabantu abahluphekayo behlabathi kunye nokuphazamiseka okuncinci kokusingqongileyo ngelixa unciphisa kakhulu ukusetyenziswa okanye ukusetyenziswa ngokugqithisileyo eMantla, eyona nto inegalelo elikhulu kutshintsho lwemozulu. Kukho into ebubudenge nokungakhathali ngayo yonke intetho malunga nokutshintsha umthengi waseMelika ongenamali kunye nomlimi waseTshayina osebenzisa indlela yaseMelika yokusetyenziswa njengenjini yemfuno yehlabathi.
Xa kujongwe iphulo lokuqala lenjongo yenzuzo yokuguqula indalo ephilayo ibe yimveliso efileyo, kuya kuthandeka ngakumbi ukuthandabuza ukuba uxolelaniso lwe-ikholoji noqoqosho lunokwenziwa phantsi kobukapitali- naphantsi kongxowankulu obulawulwa ngurhulumente bobuchwepheshe obukhuthazwa nguKeynes.
'SONKE SINGAMA-KEYNESIA KWAKHONA?'
Ngamanye amagama, i-Keynesianism ibonelela ngeempendulo kwindibano yangoku kodwa ayiboneleli isitshixo sokuyiphakamisa. I-capitalism yehlabathi ibekwe phantsi ngenxa yokuphikisana kwayo, kodwa ayibonakali ukuba i-Keynesianism yesibini yinto efunekayo. Ngokucacileyo, ingxaki yamazwe ngamazwe eya isanda ifuna uqwalaselo olumandla kwinkululeko yemali yokuhamba, ukulawulwa ngokungqongqo kwezemali kunye neemarike zemveliso, kunye nenkcitho enkulu kurhulumente. Nangona kunjalo, iimfuno zamaxesha zihamba ngaphaya kwala manyathelo e-Keynesian ukubandakanya ukuhanjiswa kwengeniso enkulu, ukuhlaselwa okuzinzileyo kwintlupheko, ukuguqulwa okukhulu kobudlelwane beklasi, ukuchithwa kwehlabathi, kwaye mhlawumbi ukugqithiswa kwe-capitalism ngokwayo phantsi kwesongelo se-cataclysm yendalo.
"Sonke singabaseKeynesians kwakhona" - ukuboleka kodwa ukuguqula kancinane ibinzana likaRichard Nixon elicatshulwe kakhulu - kunokuthiwa ngumxholo odibanisa uBarack Obama, uPaul Krugman, uJoseph Stiglitz, uGeorge Soros, uGordon Brown kunye noNicolas Sarkozy, nangona ekuphunyezweni. yemiyalelo yenkosi, basenokuba iyantlukwano. Kodwa imvuselelo engacacanga yeKeynes inokuphela nenye isiqinisekiso se-dictum kaMarx yokuba le mbali iqala yenzeka njengentlekele, emva koko iphinda-phinda njenge-farce. Ixesha alifuni kakhulu iKeynes njengoko idinga iKeynes yayo.
UWalden Bello lilungu leNdlu yaBameli bakwiiPhilippines kunye nomongameli weNkululeko evela kuManyano lweTyala. Unjingalwazi osele esidla umhlala-phantsi wenzululwazi yezentlalontle kwiDyunivesithi yasePhilippine, ukwangumhlalutyi ophezulu kwiziko lohlahlelo olusekwe eBangkok kunye neziko lokuxhasa iFocus on the Global South. Unokufikelelwa [imeyile ikhuselwe]
AMANQAKU
1. URobert Skidelsky, uJohn Maynard Keynes: i-Economist njengoMsindisi (eLondon: Iincwadi zePenguin, i-1992), iphe. 121.
2. UGeorge Akerloff noRobert Sherrill, iMimoya yeZilwanyana (i-Princeton: i-Princeton University Press, i-2009).
3. URobert Skidelsky, "I-Keynes ibuyile," i-Prospect Magazine, ngoNovemba 2008; http://www.prospect-magazine.co.uk/article_details.php?id=10451
4. Ibid.
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