Iintsuku zamva nje azilibaleki kakhulu xa kufikwa kwi-geopolitics.
Ulawulo lwe-Biden lukhuphe iMemorandam yeSicwangciso soKhuseleko lweSizwe abathi abanye basisibhengezo sobutshaba nxamnye ne-China kungekudala kwimfazwe. Kwaye kwiNkongolo yeQela lamaKomanisi laseTshayina eBeijing, uMongameli uXi Jinping walumkisa “ngeziqhwithi eziyingozi” ezijongene neTshayina kwiminyaka ezayo.
Oku kuphakamisa lo mbuzo: Ngaba ihlabathi lisingise koko kubizwa ngokuba yintetho yobudlelwane bezizwe ngezizwe “njengenguqulelo enkulu”?
Xa sivavanya imeko yamandla ehlabathi, into ecacileyo kukuba i-finalization kunye nehlabathi jikelele zidibaniswe kungekhona nje ukudala ukungalingani okunzima, kodwa batshabalalisa kakhulu isiseko sokuvelisa e-United States. Kwaye xa sithetha nge-deindustrialization, asithethi kuphela malunga nelahleko yezigidi zemisebenzi yokuvelisa, ukusuka kwi-17.3 yezigidi ukuya kwi-13 yezigidi namhlanje, kodwa malunga nokulahlekelwa kwamajelo okusasazwa kwezakhono zabasebenzi, kwi-semi- amashishini anezakhono kunye namanye anezakhono.
Okubaluleke ngokulinganayo ibe yilahleko yentsebenziswano phakathi kwemveliso kunye nobuchule bobugcisa kuqoqosho oluphakathi kunye nokuvela kwayo kuqoqosho olukhula ngokukhawuleza. Ngokuchaseneyo noko kulindelekileyo ukuba uqoqosho lwangaphandle luya kulinganiselwa ekuboneleleni ngabasebenzi abaphantsi ngelixa uqoqosho lwamaziko luya kulawula imisebenzi enzulu yolwazi, ukuthengiswa kwe-teknoloji ephezulu kulandele ukuveliswa kwemveliso.
Olunye uhlolisiso olubalulekileyo olwenziwa kumazwe asibhozo ezoqoqosho oluhambele phambili kwezoqoqosho lwabonisa ukuba urhwebo oluphezulu lwaye lwanda kwisithuba esingaphantsi kweminyaka elishumi ukusuka kwi-14 ekhulwini ngasekupheleni kweminyaka yee-1990 ukuya kutsho kwi-18 ekhulwini ngowama-2006. itekhnoloji entsha, iyachithwa kude neziko. ” Ukubuyisela umva ngokungqongqo oku kuhamba kobuchwephesha, enyanisweni, yayiyeyona nto iphambili kuDonald Trump kunye nomcebisi wakhe wezoqoqosho uPeter Navarro kuqoqosho lwezopolitiko.
Melika Comprehensive Crisis
Kodwa yintoni ebeka ngokugqithiseleyo ingxaki yangoku ye-hegemon kukuba akukhona nje kwezoqoqosho kodwa kunye neengcamango kunye nezopolitiko.
I-Bhritane yaseMarxist uPaul Mason uye waxoxa ukuba ngoloyiso lwe-neoliberalism kunye nokufakwa kwemali kuMntla wehlabathi, umanyano kunye novakalelo loluntu olusekwe kudidi lwezoqoqosho kunye nendlela yokuphila ephakathi ekwabelwana ngayo phakathi kwabasebenzi yathatyathelwa indawo yesazisi somntu ngamnye njengabathengi, njengabadlali bentengiso. kuluntu olubonakala ngathi lunempumelelo kodwa apho ukunyuka kwengeniso kuye kwanda kwathatyathelw' indawo kukunyuka kwamatyala njengendlela yokuthomalalisa uqoqosho.
Batshintshile ngesazisi sodidi lwabo kubathengi emarikeni, ilahleko yabo yeyokugqibela ngenxa yengxaki ka-2008-2009 ibashiye besengozini yeengcamango, ngakumbi xa kufikwa ekuzibopheleleni kwabo kwinkolelo yedemokhrasi yenkululeko yokulingana jikelele. Kwanangaphambi kobunzima bezemali, abasebenzi abaninzi bebesele beziva besongelwa ngokwasengqondweni ngenxa yeentshukumo zobulungisa bobuhlanga nesini, kwaye ukuhla kwabo ekungakhuselekini kwezoqoqosho yayilinyathelo lokugqibela kwi-radicalization yabo elungileyo.
Yintoni indibaniselwano eguquguqukayo yengxaki yezoqoqosho, ukuba sesichengeni ngokwembono, kunye noDonald Trump akwenzileyo kukwenza ukuba kube semthethweni ukuba akukho nto ihloniphekileyo inkolelo engundoqo echasene nedemokhrasi eye yasasazwa ngokuzalwa, ekuhlaleni, nangokubhukuqa. Oku kukuPhakamisa okuMhlophe, ngoku ngokungekho sikweni ingcamango elawulayo ye-Republican Party.
Ekugqibeleni, kwingxaki yezopolitiko. Andiqondi ukuba banokuba baninzi abanokuchasa ukubonisa kwethu idemokhrasi yenkululeko yaseMelika njengesengxakini. Ndicinga ukuba ingxabano inokuba malunga nokuba inzima kangakanani le ngxaki. Kwincwadi yakhe Ziqala Njani Iimfazwe Zamakhaya, uBarbara Walter ubhala athi:
Iphi iMelika namhlanje? Siyi-anocracy yamaqela [idemokhrasi ewohlokayo] esondela ngokukhawuleza kwinqanaba lovukelo, nto leyo ethetha ukuba sikufutshane kwimfazwe yamakhaya kunokuba nabani na kuthi angathanda ukukholelwa. Umhla we-6 kaJanuwari ibe sisaziso esikhulu ubuncinane ngamaqela athile…ukuba ajonge kubundlobongela obuthe kratya… Enyanisweni, uhlaselo lweCapitol lunokuba luthotho lokuqala lohlaselo olucwangcisiweyo kwinqanaba lovukelo. Ijolise kwiziseko ezingundoqo. Kwakukho amacebo okubulala abezobupolitika abathile kunye neenzame zokulungelelanisa umsebenzi.
Ngoku iprofile kaWalter ayiyomntu okhala ingcuka. Akangomntu uthetha ekhohlo. Ngapha koko, umiselwe kakhulu, ingcali kwiimfazwe zamakhaya ezithelekisa iimfazwe zamakhaya ezisebenzise iindawo ezininzi zogcino-lwazi, eyona ibalulekileyo kuzo yiCIA ye-CIA's Political Instability Task Force, ayinxalenye yayo.
KuWalter kunye noogxa bakhe beCIA, ubuhlanga buye bavela kwizifundo zabo zokuthelekisa zehlabathi njengeyona nto iphambili yokuchaphazeleka koluntu kwimfazwe yamakhaya - kwaye e-US, iiradicals ezixhobileyo ezimhlophe zisemdeni. Nangona kunjalo, ubuhlanga ngokwabo abuvelisi ngquzulwano. Ifuna izinto ezixhokonxayo okanye “izinto ezikhawulezayo,” yaye oku kukuvela kwamaqela eentlanga okanye “iintlanti,” ukwanda kongquzulwano “ngoosomashishini bezizwe ngezizwe,” kunye nokudityaniswa kwabemi abaqhelekileyo abavakalelwa kukuba kuphela ngamajoni axhobileyo amiyo. phakathi kwabo kunye nabo baya kubatshabalalisa kunye nehlabathi labo.
Kwaye ukusuka ku-A ukuya ku-Z, imidiya yoluntu, ngakumbi i-Facebook, ibe sisixhobo esisembindini se-radicalization. Umsindo onomsindo kumagumbi okuxoxa amhlophe ezizwe ngezizwe kule mihla yi “Theory Great Replacement Theory,” apho abamhlophe kuthiwa bangamaxhoba eyelenqe eliqhubekayo eliqulunqwe ngamaYuda, abantsundu, ababhinqileyo, ii-LGBTQIAs, abafuduki kunye neeDemokhrasi ukubenza babe mbalwa kwaye ekugqibeleni babatshabalalise kwimfazwe yogqatso.
Ngoku isizathu sokuba sichithe ixesha sichaza imbono kunye nezopolitiko zobunzima bolungelelwaniso lwenkululeko lwezizwe ngezizwe kukuba xa abantu abaninzi bethetha ngokuhla kwe-hegemonic, bajonga ubukhulu becala loqoqosho. Okubaluleke ngokulinganayo imilinganiselo yezopolitiko kunye neengcamango. Xa abanye abahlalutyi babecinga malunga nelahleko enokubakho ye-US hegemony ukuya eJapan emva phayaa ngasekupheleni kweminyaka yoo-1980, babecinga ngemeko yezoqoqosho kuphela. Kwaye nangona le yayiyeyona ngqalelo ephambili, ukutyeshela kwabo imilinganiselo yezopolitiko kunye neengcamango zobudlelwane yayisesinye sezizathu zokuqikelela kwabo malunga neJapan ukuthatha indawo ye-United States yahamba kakubi.
Ukuphinda, yintoni eyahlula intlekele ye-hegemon namhlanje ukusuka kwi-1980s yintlanganisela ebulalayo yokuphazamiseka okukhulu kwezoqoqosho, ukungavisisani okunzulu kweengcamango, kunye nokungazinzi okukhulu kwezopolitiko. I-Global hegemony inzima ukuyisebenzisa ukuba, ngaphezu kokuwa ngasemva kwinqanaba lezoqoqosho, i-hegemon nayo isondele kwimfazwe yombutho kwaye icandelo elibalulekileyo loluntu liye lalahlekelwa ukholo kwi-ideology yenkululeko yentando yesininzi eyenza ngokusemthethweni i-primacy yoqoqosho lwehlabathi.
Kulapho iUnited States ikhoyo namhlanje.
Umngeni waseTshayina
Ngoku makhe siphethukele kumbuzo wokuba ngaba elinye igunya liyashukuma ukuthabatha indawo yeUnited States kwindawo esembindini. I-China, ngokuqinisekileyo, yinto wonke umntu athetha ngayo njengomgqatswa oyintloko, kwaye kukwinqanaba lezoqoqosho apho umceli mngeni we-China unamandla.
Kwincwadi yakhe Ukuhlangana Okukhulu, uRichard Baldwin uzama ukucacisa ukuba i-China yatshintshwa njani ekubeni ingabi ngokhuphisana nje nemizi-mveliso kodwa ingaphandle kwenkqubo yongxowankulu behlabathi ngeminyaka yoo-1970 ukuya ekubeni lilizwe elinamandla amakhulu kwimizi-mveliso kwisithuba nje seminyaka engamashumi amabini.
I-China, uthi, yayikrelekrele ngokwaneleyo ukuba ikwazi ukuxhamla ekuzibandakanyeni kwayo noqoqosho lwehlabathi longxowankulu ngexesha apho into ayibiza ngokuba “kukudityaniswa kwesibini” kwehlabathi kwakusenzeka. Oku yayikukuqhawuka kwenkqubo yemveliso eyenziwe yanokwenzeka kwihlabathi jikelele kukuhambela phambili kobuchwephesha bolwazi, okukhokelele kwinguqulelo entsha: ikhonkco lexabiso lequmrhu lehlabathi. Olona phawu luphambili lwale nkqubo ibe, njengoko siphawulile ngaphambili, ukusasazwa kosasazo lobuchwephesha obuphezulu ukusuka kumaziko ongxowankulu atyebileyo ngolwazi ukuya kumazwe angaphaya kwentsalela yabasebenzi.
Ngelixa uBaldwin ebonakala ejonga le nkqubo njengento engenakuphepheka, inyaniso kukuba, kwimeko yaseChina, oku kusasazeka kwaququzelelwa yimigaqo-nkqubo yokudluliselwa kweteknoloji ngenkani ebekwe yiBeijing. Iinkampani zase-US zayibetha ngoyaba le nto, kodwa ukuthotyelwa yimeko yokufikelela kwabo kubasebenzi baseTshayina abanexabiso eliphantsi.
Ngexesha uTrump kunye noPeter Navarro bezama ukumisa ukuhanjiswa kobuchwephesha obuphezulu ngo-2017, kwakusemva kwexesha; I-China yayisele ihambile ukusuka ekubeni ngumamkeli wobugcisa obuphezulu ongenzi nto ukuya kumqalisi osebenzayo wetekhnoloji ephezulu. Umthetho wamva nje waseWashington ovala ukuthunyelwa ngaphandle kwe
Iimicrochips zeqhinga ezenziwe e-US ukuya e-China zinokuba zenze umahluko kwiminyaka eli-10 eyadlulayo, kodwa ziya kuba nefuthe elincinci kakhulu ngoku.
NgoMeyi ka-2021, iBeijing yamisa ngempumelelo isiphekepheke kuMars, lilizwe lesithathu kuphela ukuphumeza oko emva kwe-US neRussia. Kwaye oku kwakungeyongxaki. U-Baidu uphehlelele i-quantum computer abantu abaya kuba nakho ukufikelela kuyo nge-app ye-smartphone. Ulwakhiwo luyaqhuba kwi iplanti enkulu yepulsed-power kwihlabathi, iingcali ezikhokelayo ukuba ziqikelele ukuba i-China ingafumana amandla okudibanisa inyukliya ngo-2028. inkxaso-mali yothutho lwabahlali be-hypersonic.
Ilizwe elomeleleyo, kunokuqatshelwa-elalinamandla kakhulu ngenxa yemvelaphi yalo yenguqu kunamazwe ophuhliso lwakudala lwe-Asia Pacific rim - yenze umahluko.
Nakweyiphi na imeko, iChina ngoku liziko lokuqokelelwa kwemali eyinkunzi yehlabathi. Kumfanekiso odumileyo, "yi-locomotive yoqoqosho lwehlabathi," ithatha i-28 yepesenti yalo lonke ukukhula kwihlabathi jikelele kwiminyaka emihlanu ukusuka ku-2013 ukuya ku-2018 ngokwe-IMF - ngaphezu kwesabelo esiphindwe kabini se-United States.
Ingxaki yoHlumo vs. Ingxaki yokuBetha
Ngoku, kuyinyani ngokuqinisekileyo ukuba uqoqosho lwaseTshayina luphawulwa ziingxaki ezininzi, njengokuvela kokungalingani okukhulu kwengeniso, umthamo omkhulu wentsalela, iyantlukwano yengingqi, amaqamza ezindlu nomhlaba, kunye neengxaki zokusingqongileyo. Ndizijonga ezi, nangona kunjalo, njengembonakaliso yokukhula okungalinganiyo eyathi ingcali yezoqoqosho uAlbert Hirschman yayibona njengophawu oluyimfuneko lophuhliso olukhawulezayo lwemizi-mveliso phantsi kongxowankulu.
Ezi ziingxaki zokukhula, ngokuchaseneyo neentlekele zokuhla eziphawula uqoqosho lwase-US.
Kodwa makhe sijike kwezopolitiko kunye neengcamango kuqoqosho lwezopolitiko lwaseTshayina. Ngokwahlukileyo kumbono olula wabemi obanjwe yingcinezelo, uqhanqalazo lwezopolitiko luxhaphakile e-China, emhlabeni nakwi-intanethi, nangona abanye besithi kukho ukwehla kwamanani kule minyaka ye-Xi Jinping.
Kodwa bambalwa abanokuthi urhulumente olawulayo usengxakini yokuba semthethweni. Uqhanqalazo luye lwajoliswa kwiingxaki zasekuhlaleni ezifana nokuhluthwa komhlaba, imivuzo ephantsi, okanye ukungcoliseka kwendalo, kungekho mbutho woqhanqalazo okwaziyo ukuziguqulela ekubeni yingxubakaxaka kwilizwe lonke. Kungoko kukho umngeni omncinci kumandla ezopolitiko eQela lamaKomanisi, ngaphandle kowedemokhrasi namatshantliziyo amalungelo oluntu abathi, bakhaliphile kwaye bangumzekelo, bambalwa kwaye baphakathi kakhulu. Ngokuqinisekileyo, uhlobo lwepolarization umntu alubonayo e-US alukho.
Ngoku, kumbuzo we-ideology. Ukuba semthethweni kweengcamango kuxhomekeke kubuchule bombutho bokunikezela ngezoqoqosho, ukubonelela uzinzo lwezopolitiko, kwaye baqinisekise abantu ukuba yeyona nto iphambili ekufezekiseni oko uXi Jinping akubize ngokuba “luvuselelo lwesizwe.” Urhwaphilizo, nangona kunjalo, lusisongelo oluqhubekayo, kwaye alunakupheliswa ngokwenene kuba - kwaye apha ndiyavumelana noMilanovic - lusekelwe kwinkqubo yokwenziwa kwesigqibo esinokuzikhethela okanye ukusetyenziswa okukhethiweyo komthetho othi, ngokumangalisayo, uhamba kunye nenjongo yetekhnoloji. into ayibiza ngokuba “bungxowankulu bezopolitiko.”
Nangona kunjalo, urhwaphilizo alunakuvunyelwa ukuba lusasazeke ngokungalawulekiyo njengoko oku kuya kubhukuqa ngokupheleleyo ukuba nengqondo kwethekhnoloji engundoqo wenkqubo, kuthintele ukukhula koqoqosho, kwaye kuphelise ukuba semthethweni kweQela lamaKomanisi elilawulayo. Yiyo ke loo nto, njengakwiphulo lika-Xi Jinping elineminyaka eli-10 ngoku elidume ngokurhabaxa urhwaphilizo, kufuneka kubekho iinzame ngamaxesha athile zokulunqanda, kwaye ukuncama amagosa aphezulu abanjwe ngeminwe kwitill kudla ngokuba lixabiso elihlawulwayo ukuzinzisa inkqubo.
Urhwaphilizo lusisisongelo, kodwa lukude kuhlobo lwesisoyikiso esivezwa ziingcamango ezikhuphisanayo, ezifana nezo zaziswa kwidemokhrasi yenkululeko yingcamango evukelayo yoLawulo lwabaMhlophe oluthimbe iQela leRiphabhlikhi eUnited States.
Ukujonga impembelelo yayo yezopolitiko kunye neengcamango zehlabathi, i-China iye yakwazi ukuphumelela amahlakani ngokukodwa kuMzantsi wehlabathi kunye nediplomacy yezoqoqosho efana ne-Belt and Road Initiative. Kodwa nangaphezulu korhwebo kunye noncedo lwayo, into etsalela oorhulumente eTshayina ngumzekelo wobunkokeli obusebenzayo kodwa obusebenzayo bobuchwephesha obubonakala buthembisa ukukhula okukhawulezayo kwinqanaba lokuqala lophuhliso kunye nokwanelisa umnqweno odumileyo wemigangatho yokuphila ephezulu, nokuba iindleko zinyuka ngokungalingani kunye nokusasazeka korhwaphilizo.
Esi sibongozo siye sakhula njengoko imbono ikhulile yokuba idemokhrasi yongxowankulu yenkululeko, kunye neengxabano zayo zezopolitiko ezingalawulekiyo, ukusilela kweemarike, kunye nokudodobala koqoqosho, akusaboneleli ngenye indlela enentsingiselo kuMzantsi wehlabathi.
I-Beijing ethandabuzayo, i-Aggressive Washington
Nangona kunjalo, nangona ilivuzile igalelo le-China kwilizwe elisaphuhlayo, i-Beijing ilumke kakhulu malunga nokubonisa indlela yase-China njengelizwe elinye loMzantsi wehlabathi ekufuneka lilandele. Ayikhange ithathe indawo yee-arhente zamazwe ngamazwe ezisekwe yiNtshona ukuba zisebenze njenge-canopy yolawulo lwehlabathi, kwaye ayikhange ifune ukutshintsha idola ngerenminbi njengemali egcina imali yehlabathi.
I-China, eneneni, yenze iinzame ezibuhlungu ukuba ingabonwa njengenqwenela ukungena kwindawo yase-United States, kungekuphela nje ukuphepha ukucaphukisa le yokugqibela kodwa nokunqanda ukuba ngumthwalo wemisebenzi ehamba nobunkokeli behlabathi - kwaye, mhlawumbi. eyona nto ibaluleke kakhulu, kuba iBeijing ikholelwa ukuba indlela yayo yophuhliso ayiyokuthunyelwa ngaphandle. Ukuyibeka kwibinzana lakudala likaDeng Xiaoping, “yintlalontle eneempawu zamaTshayina.”
Ngelixa ukungafuni kwamaTshayina kudlala indima enkulu, eyona bloko inkulu kwi-China yokugxotha i-US kunye nokuthatha indima ye-hegemon kukukwazi kweWashington ukubiza kweso sixhobo esinye apho isanandipha ukongamela okupheleleyo - amandla omkhosi - ukulungisa ulungelelwaniso lwamandla, ukugcina. ubume bayo be-hegemonic ngokuya bubuthathaka.
Asiyi kungena kuthelekiso oluneenkcukacha phakathi kwe-US kunye ne-China kwindawo yomkhosi. Masithi nje ukuba iChina ayibandakanyekanga kugqatso lweengalo kunye ne-US kwaye isicwangciso sayo sobuchule sikhusela. Oku akuthethi ukuba ayizibandakanyi kuhlaselo lobuqhinga kwiindawo apho ivakalelwa kukuba ijongene nesoyikiso esikhoyo, njengoLwandle lwase-China eMazantsi.
Ngeziphumo ezinqongopheleyo zorhwebo lukaTrump kunye noNavarro kunye nokucinezelwa kwetekhnoloji eTshayina, ulawulo lweBiden luye lwagxila kwindawo yomkhosi, inyathelo labo lamva nje kukuzisa iinqanawa zaselwandle zaseNorth Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) ezivela eYurophu ukuba zijikeleze rhoqo eMzantsi. Ulwandle lwaseTshayina kunye neenqanawa ezivela eJapan, eMzantsi Korea, kwiiPhilippines naseOstreliya. Abagxeki baye bakugxeka ngokufanelekileyo ukunyuka kweentetho ezinobundlongondlongo kunye nokuthunyelwa kwangempela njengokwandisa ungquzulwano oluxhobileyo, ekubeni kungekho mithetho yothethathethwano, ukungqubana kwenqanawa ngokulula kunokunyukela kuhlobo oluphezulu lwengxabano.
Ukukhumbuza i-China ngokungafihlisiyo ukuba imodareyithe amabhongo ayo okanye ijongane nesoyikiso esikhoyo, nangona kunjalo, ayisiyiyo kuphela injongo yolawulo lwe-Biden oluya lusanda umkhosi waseTshayina. Mhlawumbi okubaluleke ngakumbi yimpembelelo yomfuziselo womboniso wamandla- oko kukuthi, impembelelo yawo kwezopolitiko zangaphakathi zaseTshayina.
Kusenokwenzeka ukuba le yayiyinjongo yotyelelo lukaNancy Pelosi eTaiwan, olwenzeka kwiintsuku ezimbalwa emva kokuba umtshabalalisi wase-US edlula eTaiwan Straits. Yayikukusasazwa kwesiganeko esingumfuziselo oxhaswa ngamandla omkhosi ukuvusa ingxaki yezopolitiko e-China - kule meko, ukudodobala kwendima ephambili ye-Xi - ngokubonisa ukuba i-US nangaliphi na ixesha inokukrazula i-One-China yayo. umgaqo-nkqubo kunye nokuxhasa ngokukrakra iTaiwan ngaphandle kokuba iBeijing ikwazi ukwenza nantoni na ngenxa yokoyika amandla ase-US.
Ixesha lalingenakuba libaluleke kakhulu, liza kwiinyanga ezimbini ezinesiqingatha phambi kweNkongolo yeQela phakathi ku-Okthobha, apho uXi Jinping bekulindeleke ukuba afune imvumelwano ngenyathelo lakhe lokuphelisa umda ongekho sikweni weminyaka eli-10 kwisikhundla sikamongameli. Kuthiwa kukho iingxelo zokungoneliseki okubalulekileyo ngempendulo ka-Xi ethambileyo kwaye ibonakalisa ubukhulu becala kwisixhokonxa seBiden-Pelosi kwiindawo ezithile zeqela, emkhosini, kunye noluntu.
Ngokudabukisayo, utyelelo lukaPelosi lulandela enye yeemeko ezibekelwe impendulo yeWashington eTshayina ngumfundisi wezifundo zokhuseleko e-US, uGraham Allison, kwincwadi yakhe. Umgibe weThucydides, eza kukhapha ukwakha amandla ayo omkhosi ngokusebenzisa kakubi ubuthathaka bezopolitiko baseTshayina eTaiwan, eHong Kong, eXinjiang, naseTibet ukutshabalalisa ukuba semthethweni kweCCP.
IiPros and Cons of Stalemate
Kodwa ukubuyela kweyona nkxalabo yethu iphambili, kunye neChina eyomeleleyo kwezoqoqosho ithandabuza kakhulu ukubanga ubunkokheli behlabathi kunye ne-United States ebuthathaka kwezoqoqosho nakwezopolitiko ifuna ngamandla ukuphakamisa isikhundla sayo ngokuphosa ukongama kwayo ngokupheleleyo emkhosini, singathetha ngenyani malunga ne-hegemonic. inguqu?
Ngaba asifanele ukuba sithetha endaweni yoko malunga ne-hegemonic stalemate okanye i-hegemonic vacuum?
Mhlawumbi, xa sithelekisa, kufuneka singajongi kakhulu kwinguqu ye-hegemonic kodwa ekuveleni kwe-hegemonic vacuum ehambelanayo kodwa ingafani ncam naleyo yalandela iMfazwe yeHlabathi yokuQala kwiNkulungwane yama-20. Emva koko, amazwe aseNtshona Yurophu abuthathaka ayengasenawo amandla okubuyisela ubuqhetseba bawo behlabathi bangaphambi kwemfazwe - ngelixa i-US yasilela ukulandela iphulo likaWoodrow Wilson lokuba iWashington ibambe ubunkokheli bezopolitiko kunye neengcamango.
Ngaphakathi kweso sikhalazo okanye ukudodobala, ubudlelwane be-US-China buya kuqhubeka bubaluleke kakhulu. Akukho namnye umlingisi okwaziyo ukulawula ngokufanelekileyo intsingiselo-efana neziganeko zemozulu ezibi kakhulu, ukukhula kokhuseleko, ukubola kwenkqubo yamazwe ngamazwe ebekwe yi-United States ngexesha le-apogee yayo, ukuphinda kuqhutyelwe phambili kwiintshukumo eziqhubekayo eLatin America, ukunyuka kwamazwe anegunya kunye Ukuvela komanyano phakathi kwabo ukuze kushenxiswe ulungelelwaniso lwenkululeko oludodobalayo lwezizwe ngezizwe, kunye nokruthakruthwano okwandayo olungalawulekiyo phakathi kolawulo olungqongqo lobuSilamsi kuMbindi Mpuma kunye noSirayeli kunye noorhulumente bama-Arabhu abalondolozayo.
Bobabini abenzi bomgaqo-nkqubo abalondolozayo kunye nenkululeko bapeyinta le meko ukuze bagxininise ukuba kutheni ihlabathi lifuna i-hegemon, kunye nowayesakuba nguGoliyati ongabambekiyo ongalibazisiyo ukusebenzisa isoyikiso kunye nokunyanzela ukunyanzelisa ucwangco kwaye lo wokugqibela ukhetha uGoliyati okhululekileyo owathi, ukuhlaziya kancinane uTeddy. Intetho edumileyo kaRoosevelt, ithetha kamnandi kodwa iphethe intonga enkulu.
Kukho, nangona kunjalo, abo kuthi bajonga ingxaki ekhoyo ngoku ye-US hegemony njengokubonelela ngokungakhathali kangako kodwa ithuba.
Ngelixa kukho imingcipheko ebandakanyekayo, i-hegemonic stalemate okanye ivacuum ivula indlela eya kwihlabathi apho amandla anokubekwa khona ngakumbi, apho kunokubakho inkululeko enkulu yolawulo lwezopolitiko kunye noqoqosho kubadlali abancinci, ngokwemveli abangenawo amalungelo avela kuMzantsi wehlabathi, nalapho Ulungelelwaniso lwamazwe ngamazwe olunyanisekileyo lunokwakhiwa ngentsebenziswano kunokuba lunyanzeliswe nge-unilateral okanye i-liberal hegemony.
Ewe, ingxaki inokukhokelela kwingxaki enzulu ngakumbi - kodwa inokukhokelela nethuba.
I-ZNetwork ixhaswa ngemali kuphela ngesisa sabafundi bayo.
Nikela