Njengoko oorhulumente behlangana eWashington kwiNgxowa-mali yeMali yaMazwe ngaMazwe (IMF)-iNtlanganiso yaseNtwasahlobo yeBhanki yeHlabathi (ngo-Epreli 10-16), bajongana nethemba eloyikisayo lokuba u-2023 inokuba ngunyaka apho ihlabathi liya kubethwa yingxaki yamatyala elizwe elisaphuhlayo. efana kakhulu naleyo yenzeka ekuqaleni kweminyaka yee-1980, nto leyo eyakhokelela ekuphulukaneni neshumi leminyaka elibi kuMbindi noMzantsi Merika.
Inani leentsilelo ekuhlawuleni amatyala kule minyaka mithathu idlulileyo isebenze njengeentsimbi zokulumkisa ukuba kunokwenzeka ukuba kufakwe imbuyekezo enkulu ngakumbi. Ithwele umthwalo wetyala le-324 yeebhiliyoni zeedola elafika kwi-90 yepesenti yesambuku semveliso yasekhaya, iArgentina iye yasilela kwintlawulo ebicwangcisiwe ngoMeyi ka-2020. IZambia ilandele ngoNovemba ka-2020, yaphoswa yintlawulo yezigidi ezingama-42.5 zeerandi kwimali-mboleko ye-Eurobond. Yalandelwa kukungagqibeki yiSri Lanka, Suriname, kunye neLebhanon. yayikukusilela kweSri Lanka ngo-Epreli ka-2022 okwatsalela ingqalelo yehlabathi kugqabhuko-dubulo lwamatyala asakhulayo kuMzantsi wehlabathi, mhlawumbi ngenxa yokuwa kobukhosi bezopolitiko, usapho lakwaRajapaksa, phakathi kobumnyama, imigca emide yokutya. kunye nezinye izinto ezisisiseko, kunye noqhanqalazo olukhulu lwasezitalatweni.
Unxulunyaniswano Oluyingozi: Ukuboleka imali ngokungakhathali, Kulandelwa Yimali Enzima
Ukufana okumangalisayo kukuba njani kwiminyaka yoo-1970 kunye neminyaka embalwa edlulileyo, ixesha lemali elula okanye ukuboleka imali ngokungakhathali kwalandelwa kulawulo lwemali engqongqo njengoko i-US Federal Reserve ifuna ukulwa nokunyuka kwamaxabiso ngokunyusa inzala, ekhokelela kwi-formal or ukusilela ngokungekho sikweni kwamazwe abanjwe kukuhlawula amatyala amakhulu ngendlela engaxhaswayo.
Ngenxa yokudodobala koqoqosho okubangelwe yingxaki yezemali yehlabathi ngo-2008, iFederal Reserve yehlise ireyithi ephambili ukuya kuthi ga kwiqanda ukuze kuvuselelwe uqoqosho lwase-US ngokukhuthaza iifemu ukuba ziboleke kwaye zityale imali. Ukufuna amathuba angcono kwenye indawo, iibhanki ezinkulu zaseNtshona zazama ukutsala abo babolekayo okanye oorhulumente abanenzala ephantsi. Kwakhona befuna ukwenza inzuzo yayingabatyali-mali babucala ababethenga iibhondi zelizwe elisaphuhlayo, ezivuno zabo zaziphezulu kune-US Treasury bond, nangona babenomngcipheko omkhulu. Njengoko enye ingxelo โNgelixa inani lokukhutshwa kwebhondi liye lehla ngenxa yokungazinzi kwemarike kwincopho yengxaki yemali yehlabathi ngo-2008, ukuqala ngo-2010, njengoko umngcipheko uphucuka kwaye amazinga enzala ehlabathi ehla ngakumbi, abatyali-zimali bamazwe ngamazwe, batyekele ekwahlukaneni kwee-asethi zabo. , baphinda baqalisa ukukhangela isivuno kwindawo enenzala ephantsi kwaye abalawuli bathatha ithuba lenzala ephantsi yehlabathi ukuze bazixhase ngemali kwiimarike zamazwe ngamazwe. Ngenxa yoko, ukukhutshwa kweebhondi kuye kwanda kakhulu.โ
Ngamanye amazwi, bedanyazwe kukudodobala kwe-United States kunye nokudodobala koqoqosho eYurophu, ababolekisi abangakhathaliyo bahambela kuMzantsi wehlabathi. Kwaye nangona amatyala abo ukuya kwi-GDP ratios ahlala ephezulu kakhulu, oorhulumente bamazwe asakhulayo baye banikezela kumagama abonakala enomtsalane kuba babenombono wokuba ukukhula koqoqosho okuqhubekayo kuya kuvelisa izibonelelo zemali zokuxhasa ityala.
Ingxaki eNtsha yeTyala ifumana amandla
Olo buxoki lwahlukana nokuza kwe-COVID-19 ngo-2020, xa urhwebo lwehlabathi lwaya kungena ezantsi, iinkqubo zempilo zawa kwaye zafuna ukuhlangulwa okukhulu ngurhulumente, kwaqhambuka ingxaki yokutya, kwaye ukukhula koqoqosho kwanqumama. Ngenxa yokuncipha kobutyebi bawo bemali njengoko intlawulo yabo yenzala kwabo bayityalayo yayiqhubeka, amazwe asakhasayo ayekwimeko enzima. Ngo-2021, ingxaki yamatyala elizwe elitsha elisaphuhlayo yayikhula ngamandla. Yakhawuleziswa kukunyuka kabukhali kwamaxabiso eoli kunye nokutya okwabangelwa yimfazwe yaseUkraine ngo-2022.
Impendulo yenkqubo yamazwe amaninzi yaba linyathelo elibizwa ngokuba yi-Debt Service Suspension Initiative (DSSI), eyanqumamisa ukubonelelwa kwamatyala kumazwe athatha inxaxheba ukusuka kuMeyi 2020 ukuya kuDisemba wama-2021. Amashumi amane anesibhozo kwaba Amazwe afanelekileyo akwa-73 uthathe inxaxheba kweli phulo phambi kokuba liphelelwe lixesha. NgokweBhanki yehlabathi, eli phulo lanqunyanyiswa I-12.9 yeebhiliyoni zeerandi kwiintlawulo zenkonzo yamatyala amazwe athatha inxaxheba atyala abantu abanamatyala abo. Nangona kunjalo, mnye kuphela umbolekisi wabucala owathatha inxaxheba.
Kunye ne-DSSI, i-G20, i-IMF, kunye neBhanki yeHlabathi yenze into ebizwa ngokuba yi-โCommon Frameworkโ ebekumele ukuba ibonelele ngeplani yokupheliswa kwamatyala kwixesha elizayo. Nangona kunjalo, iNkqubo eQhelekileyo yayingeyonto. Ngamazwe amane kuphelaโiZambia, iChad, i-Ethiopia neGhanaโaye avuma ukuthabatha inxaxheba, yaye yiChad kuphela ekwazileyo ukugqibezela lo msebenzi.
Izinto ezintathu ziye zachongwa njengezenza ukuba ingabi yinto yokuqala. Okokuqala yintoni enye umhlalutyi ichazwe โnjengenkqubo yokusila, ebandakanya iikomiti zababolekisi, i-International Monetary Fund, neWorld Bank, zonke ezimele zithethathethane zize zivumelane ngendlela yokuhlengahlengisa imali-mboleko amazwe ayityalayo.โ Okwesibini ibikukuthandabuza okanye ukungafuni kweebhanki zabucala kunye nabo banebhondi ukuba bathathe inxaxheba. Okwesithathu yayikukuba amazwe afanelekileyo akanakujongana neziphumo zezopolitiko zokunyanzelisa amanyathelo angqongqo e-IMF kubemi abasele bebandezelekile ngenxa yeziphumo ze-COVID-19.
Ukulwa nokunyuka kwamaxabiso kuMntla, ukuBhankisha uMzantsi
Kwakukwezi meko esele zibuhlungu ukuba i-US Federal Reserve kunye nezinye iibhanki eziphambili zaseNtshona zaqala iphulo elinobundlobongela lokunyusa izinga lenzala kwi-2022 ukwenzela ukuba kuqulathe ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kuqoqosho lwabo, ukuqinisa idola kunye nokukhokelela ekubalekeni kwe-capital yaseNtshona kwi-capital. amazwe aphuhlileyo. NgoJuni ka-2022 kuphela, i-4 yeebhiliyoni zeedola zaphuma kwiibhondi ezisakhulayo kunye nezitokhwe. Ngokunyuka kwezinga lenzala, inani leemarike ezikhulayo ezineebhondi zokurhweba "kumanqanaba acinezelekileyo" -oko kukuthi, kunye nezivuno ezingaphezu kweepesenti ezili-10 zeepesenti ezingaphezulu kweebhilidi ze-Treasury-maturity-ngaphezulu kokuphindwe kabini kwiinyanga ezintandathu nje. Iibhondi ezikhutshiweyo zelizwe eziphuhlisayo ziye zawa ngexabiso, okukhokelela abatyali-mali ukuba bazilahle ngelahleko, kunye nezaphulelo ezinzulu ukusuka kwi-40 ukuya kwi-60 yeesenti kwidola.
Kwacelwa inyathelo elingqongqo, ekubeni kwakucacile ukuba kwakungekho ndlela yakuhlangatyezwa ngamatyala amakhulu awayeza kuhlawulwa, njengoko kwanohlolisiso olufutshane olwenziwa kwamanye awona mazwe anamatyala ngokukhawuleza lwabonisa ngokukhawuleza. I-Egypt yayinemali emalunga ne-7 yeebhiliyoni zeerandi ngenxa yentlawulo yenkonzo yamatyala phakathi kukaNovemba ka-2022 kunye noFebruwari ka-2023. I-Pakistan yayityala ubuncinane i-$ 41 yebhiliyoni ukusuka phakathi ku-2022 ukuya phakathi ku-2023. Ngokuhla kwezorhwebo ngenxa yefuthe eliqhubekayo loqoqosho lwe-COVID-19 kwaye ke iidola ezimbalwa ezingenayo, amazwe asaphuhlayo angama-25 abone ukuba iintlawulo zawo zamatyala angaphandle zifikelela ngaphezulu kwama-20 epesenti yengeniso karhulumente iyonke.
INtshona iZibandakanya kumdlalo onetyala
Ngaphandle kwezilumkiso kwangaphambili, akukho sicwangciso sikhoyo sokunqanda ukutyhoboza okuzayo. Oko kubizwa ngokuba yiCommon Framework eyilwe yiG-20, iWorld Bank, kunye ne-IMF akwanelanga kwaphela. Endaweni yoko, amagunya ezezimali aseNtshona azibandakanye kumdlalo wokutyhola, oko kukuthi, ukuchonga iindlela zokuboleka zaseTshayina njengengxaki.
Le ntlawulo inesiseko esincinci kuba ingxelo ibonisa ukuba i-China, eneneni, ibe nesisa ekuxoleleni amatyala amazwe ahluphekayo, ngakumbi e-Afrika. Ukutshekishwa kwenyani okufutshane kubonisa ukuba amabango aseTshayina awayonyani kwaye akabaxwa. Ingxelo ibonisa ukuba iChina yabhala i-72 yezigidi zeedola etyalwa yiCameroon ngo-2019, i-72 yezigidi zeedola etyalwa yiBotswana kunye ne-10.6 yezigidi zeedola etyalwa yiLesotho ngo-2018, kunye ne-160 yezigidi zeedola etyalwa yiSudan ngo-2017. China isixa $40 billion kumazwe 50 ukususela 24. Kwintetho yakhe 2000 UN Millennium Challenge, ngoko iNkulumbuso Wen Jiabao watyhila ukuba China licinyiwe ityala elityalwa 2010 kakhulu amatyala amazwe ahluphekayo (HIPCs) kunye namazwe angaphuhlileyo (LDCs) ezixabisa 50 billion yuan (i-25.6 yeebhiliyoni zeedola).
I-ajenda yokwenyani ye "Blame China" lobby kukurholela i-China kwindawo efanayo eya kuthi ibeke iimeko ezingqongqo kumazwe anamatyala njengexabiso lokuthomalalisa amatyala, indlela eyachazwa yi-China ngokufanelekileyo ukuba ayisebenzanga kuba ayilungisi. iingcambu zesakhiwo sengxaki yetyala lelizwe elisaphuhlayo.
Yintoni eza Kwenziwa?
Ukanti ingxaki ekhoyo ngoku, enyanisweni, ingajikwa ibe lithuba. Akukho nto imfutshane kwindlela engqongqo, enobulungisa, nesebenzayo efunekayo enokuthi ilahle iinkqubo ezingephithiphithi, zolondolozo, ezichasene nophuhliso loncedo lwetyala ezayilwa ukuhlangabezana nengxaki yeminyaka yoo-1970 no-1980 kwaye imisele inkqubo yokucinywa kwamatyala amakhulu phakathi iparadigm yenguqu exhasa uphuhliso oluzinzileyo, ukuncitshiswa okumandla kwentlupheko nokungalingani, kunye nobulungisa bemozulu.
Isinyathelo sokuqala nesona singxamisekileyo sicacile: ukwandisa ukumiswa kokuhlawulwa kwamatyala ukususela ekupheleni kwe-2021 njengoko oorhulumente bezama isisombululo, inkqubo eya kuthatha iinyanga ukuphumeza i-modicum yemvumelwano.
Okwesibini, akukho ntlanganiso zamazwe ngamazwe ezilawulwa yi-IMF kunye neBhanki yeHlabathi okanye i-G-20 azisayi kubonelela ngesetingi esisebenzayo sokusombulula umba wetyala. Kufuneka ulungiselelo olungakumbi, olunolawulo lwentando yesininzi, oluya kuvumela ukuthatyathwa kwenxaxheba ngokulinganayo ngamazwe anamatyala kwaye apho iimbono ezahlukeneyo zinokuvakaliswa ngaphaya kweMvumelwano yaseWashington esekho. Ixesha lokudala nokubamba inkomfa yamazwe ngamazwe ukuza nesisombululo esiqhubekayo kwityala lamazwe asakhulayo, mhlawumbi phantsi kwe-UN General Assembly.
Okwesithathu, ubukhulu bengxaki kukuba ifuna isisombululo esingqongqo, eso esivumayo ukuba asingabo batyalwayo kuphela abamele bathabathe uxanduva lwemeko yokusilela ukuhlawula amatyala kodwa kwanabo babolekisa ngemali ngokungenankathalo, umgaqo owamkelwayo ngoku kuhlengahlengiso lwamatyala. . Inkqubo yoPhuhliso lwe-UN ibiza i-30 yeepesenti "izinwele," okanye ukunciphisa iintlawulo ezibalaseleyo kumazwe angama-52 amatyala amaninzi ukusuka kwi-2021 ukuya kwi-2029. Oku ngokuqinisekileyo kunokusebenza njengendawo yokuqala yeengxoxo zokuqala, nangona abaxoxisi kufuneka bavuleleke kubukhulu obukhulu. . Kwiphepha elilungiselelwe ukupapashwa kwe-OECD Imiba yoPhuhliso, izazi ngezoqoqosho uRachid Bouhia noPatrick Kacmarczyk bathi โiphulo elikhulu lokucinywa kwamatyala kuMazwe Amkela Imivuzo Ephantsi naMazwe Amkela Umvuzo Ophakathi โayi...
Okwesine, inkqubo yokuphelisa amatyala kufuneka ithathele ingqalelo into yokuba amazwe ahlwempuzekileyo asematyaleni kakhulu ngawona asemngciphekweni kakhulu xa kufikwa kutshintsho lwemozulu kwaye anetyala leekholoji nguMantla wehlabathi. ibe negalelo ngeyona ndlela inkulu yokukhutshwa kwekhabhoni ngokwembali. Ukuba lo mlinganiso uthathelwa ingqalelo, kwaye kwakhona unikwe ukuba ityala labo lokuqala sele lihlawulwe amaxesha amaninzi, ngoko ukucinywa kwetyala lamazwe aphuhlileyo kufuneka kube kwi-ajenda.
Okwesihlanu, ubungqongqo kunye nohlengahlengiso lwezakhiwo kufuneka ziyekwe njengenkqubo-sikhokelo yohlengahlengiso lwamatyala kuba baye badala amaqumrhu anyuse ukuba sesichengeni koqoqosho lwamazwe asakhulayo kwiingxaki zamatyala. Into efunekayo sisicwangciso-sikhokelo esinceda amazwe ukuba aphuhle ngokugqibeleleyo nangokuzinzileyo kwaye avumele ukuba enze izithinteli kwiimpembelelo ezingalunganga zoqoqosho lwehlabathi olusiya lungazinzanga kwaye luzinzile.
Okokugqibela, oorhulumente kufuneka bayeke ukusebenzisa uthethathethwano lwamatyala njengeforum yokuqhubela phambili ii-ajenda zabo ze-geopolitical. Ngokukodwa, iWashington kufuneka iyeke ukusebenzisa inkqubo ye-IMF-World Bank/Paris Club ukwahlula iTshayina.
Ingxaki yetyala lelizwe elisaphuhlayo ngenene yingxaki enkulu. Kodwa inokuba lithuba lokuyilwa kolungelelwaniso olulinganayo nolulungileyo lwehlabathi.
I-ZNetwork ixhaswa ngemali kuphela ngesisa sabafundi bayo.
Nikela