Wonke umntu oyithiyileyo imfazwe, oyithiyileyo impiriyali, kwaye uthanda intsebenziswano phakathi kwezizwe malunga nokufudumala kwehlabathi, ukunciphisa intlupheko, ukukhuselwa kwezinto eziphilayo, ukuchithwa kwezixhobo kumazwe ngamazwe, ukuphunyezwa komthetho wamazwe ngamazwe, kunye nezinye izinto eziphambili kwiphiko lasekhohlo kufuneka zikhwankqiswe kukukhula koxinzelelo phakathi kwe-US kunye China kunye nenkuthalo uququzelela ngokuchasene nabo.
Imfazwe entsha yeCold phakathi kwe "Mpuma" (kubandakanya iRashiya) kunye "neNtshona" iyingozi ngakumbi kuneyokuqala, kungekuphela nje ekubeni sele evuse imfazwe phakathi kwamagunya amakhulu eYurophu ngokwayo, kwaye kungekuphela nje ekujongeni nayiphi na inkqubela phambili ejolise kwiinjongo ezingxamisekileyo kulo lonke uluntu, kodwa nasekulungiseleleni iimeko zemfazwe eyoyikekayo enkulu enokuthi ilungile. gqiba ku ubusika benyukliya. Iminyaka ezayo iya kuthi, ngokwenqanaba elikhulu, imisele ikamva lempucuko, ebeka umthwalo omkhulu kubo bonke abantu abanesidima ukuba bazabalazele ukuphelisa impambano.
“Omabini amacala,” ewe, anoxanduva ngeMfazwe Yomlomo entsha, kanye njengokuba onke amagunya amakhulu esabelana ngoxanduva oluninzi lokusilela ukwenza isigqibo ngokunyuka kobushushu behlabathi. Ngenxa yamandla angalinganiyo kunye nembali ye-impiriyali yase-United States, nangona kunjalo, lelona lizwe libekek' ityala, kuzo zombini ezi meko. Ngoko ke, okokuqala nokuphambili, imigaqo-nkqubo yeli lizwe ekufuneka siyiguqule. Nangona oku kwakungenjalo, nangona kunjalo, umgaqo wokuba Noam Chomsky Uchazile uya kusebenza: Ziingozi ezivezwa yi okwabo ithi, ingengawo amazwe aziintshaba, abemi banoxanduva lokuwachasa. Abantu baseNtshona kufuneka, ikakhulu, bagxeke oorhulumente babo, abanethemba lokuba baya kubaphembelela. Abanakuba nefuthe elibonakalayo eTshayina okanye eRashiya.
Imibuzo emibini izibuza: Okokuqala, ngaba iChina ngokwenene isisoyikiso, kwaye ukuba kunjalo, yintoni kanye kanye? Okwesibini, ngaba ukujongana ngezikhondo zamehlo yeyona ndlela ilungileyo yokujongana naso nasiphi na isoyikiso esimele iTshayina?
Umbuzo uvela ke, malunga nokuba yeyiphi eyona ndlela ilungileyo yokukhokela iMelika ukusuka kwikhondo lobundlobongela ukuya kwelinye lentsebenziswano kunye noxolelwaniso. Oko kukuthi, singakha njani intshukumo yokulwa nemfazwe? Umsebenzi obalulekileyo, ngokucacileyo, kukuhambisa isikhokelo somgaqo-nkqubo we-vis-à-vis China owaqala phantsi kukaTrump kwaye uqhubekile phantsi kweBiden, ukufuna ukuxhokonxa emkhosini kunye nemfazwe yezoqoqosho. Oku kubandakanya ugxininiso olungagungqiyo ekuphikiseni izizathu ezinikwa yiWashington ukuthethelela ukuma kwayo okundlongondlongo.
Abantu baseMelika bathwaxwa ngumyalezo wokuba iTshayina "sisisongelo," kwaye ngenxa yesi sizathu kufuneka kujongwe. Bayiva kuwo onke amajelo amakhulu eendaba—CBS, impungutye, The New York Times, IWashington Post, njl. Lo myalezo ubonisa isimo sengqondo saseWashington, ngokucacileyo ejonga i-China njengesongelo esikhulu-kwi-American "ukhuseleko," "ukhuseleko lwesizwe" (njengoko kuchazwe umzekelo kwi ISicwangciso soKhuselo seSizwe sowama-2022). Imibuzo emibini izibuza: Okokuqala, ngaba iChina ngokwenene isisoyikiso, kwaye ukuba kunjalo, yintoni kanye kanye? Okwesibini, ngaba ukujongana ngezikhondo zamehlo yeyona ndlela ilungileyo yokujongana naso nasiphi na isoyikiso esimele iTshayina?
UKhuseleko lweLizwe
Ingcinga “yokhuseleko lwesizwe” iye yaphoswa ngokungafanelekanga izizukulwana ngezizukulwana, kungekuphela nje kwezopolitiko nakumajelo eendaba adumileyo kodwa nakwizifundo zobudlelwane bamazwe ngamazwe. Kunqabile ukuba kuqatshelwe ukuba eli gama, ngaphandle kokuba licacisiwe, alinantsingiselo, okanye intsingiselo yalo iyahluka ngokomxholo. Ngaba uGeorge W. Bush wayekhusela "ukhuseleko" lwaseMelika ngokuhlasela i-Afghanistan ne-Iraq, ngaloo ndlela ukwandisa ukoyikeka okukhulu, kunye nokuqeshwa kwabanqolobi, kuMbindi Mpuma? Ngaba urhulumente ukhusela ukhuseleko lwabantu baseMelika ngoku nakwixesha elizayo ngokuxhasa ishishini leefosili, ngaloo ndlela enyusa ubushushu behlabathi? I-Prima facie, eyona ntsingiselo icacileyo yokhuseleko yinto efana nekaFranklin Roosevelt Iinkululeko ezine: inkululeko yokuthetha, inkululeko yenkolelo yonqulo, inkululeko ekusweleni, nenkululeko kuloyiko. Kodwa olu hlobo lokhuseleko kumntu oqhelekileyo-ngaba le yeyona nto iphambili kurhulumente wase-US? Ngaba yintsingiselo ye-mantra ukuba iChina isisongelo sokhuseleko? Ngaba i-China inoxanduva lokungakhuseleki kwezoqoqosho kubantu abaninzi baseMelika, okanye ukungakhuseleki kwezindlu zabo, okanye uloyiko lwabo lokudutyulwa kwabantu abaninzi, okanye uloyiko lwabo lokugula kuba bengazukwazi ukuhlawula iindleko zonyango?
“Ukhuseleko,” ke ngoko, ngokucacileyo aluthethi ukhuseleko lwabantu baseMelika, ubuncinci hayi uninzi. Urhulumente unokutyala imali kwiibhiliyoni ezingama-800 zeedola, yithi, ekuphuculeni iziseko zempilo yoluntu kunye nezindlu-uyazi, ngokwenene iziseko zokhuseleko-kunokuphucula umkhosi kwaye ngaloo ndlela ukhuthaze umdyarho wezixhobo onobungozi kunye neTshayina. Abaphengululi benyani abafana noJohn Mearsheimer bacebisa enye ingcaciso: Ukhuseleko kwingqiqo yobugcisa luthetha ukusinda kwelizwe kwinkqubo ye-anarchic yobudlelwane bamazwe ngamazwe. Abantu abanokuthi bakhuphisane bakhona kuyo yonke indawo, ngoko ke amazwe kufuneka alungele ukujongana nomkhosi. Ngoko ke, intswelo yawo yokusinda inomvisiswano: “Amagunya amakhulu [afuna] ukwandisa amandla awo alinganiselweyo,” U-Mearsheimer uyabhala, “kuba leyo yeyona ndlela ilungileyo yokwandisa ukhuseleko lwabo. Ngamanye amazwi, ukusinda kugunyazisa isimilo esindlongo-ndlongo,” ukuze urhulumente akwazi ukuzikhusela kutshaba olunokuba ndlongondlongo. Eyona njongo iphambili kolu khuphiswano lokhuseleko lwenja-inja-inja kukuba yi-hegemon yengingqi enokuthi ihlasele nawuphi na umchasi, kwaye emva koko ithintele naliphi na elinye ilizwe ukuba libe yi-hegemon eyimbangi.
Le ngcinga “yokwenene” isenokuvakala isengqiqweni, nangona ubani enokubona kwangoko ukuba ityekele ekuthetheleleni nasekuthetheleleni imfazwe (njengoko kubonisiwe sisigwebo sikaMearsheimer sokuba ukwanda okukhohlakeleyo kweJamani, iJapan, neSoviet Union ngeminyaka yee-1930 kunye neyee-40s yayisenzeka ngokwenene. isengqiqweni, kuba babezama ukusinda kuphela!). Ngaba inokugcinwa ngenene, nangona kunjalo, ukuba i-China yangoku isoyikisa ukusinda kwe-United States? Kuphela kungoluhlu lwayo lwezixhobo zenyukliya apho iTshayina inokuthi igrogrise i-US, nto leyo ethetha ukuba eyona nkqubo isengqiqweni yaseMelika ayikuko ukuxhokonxa ugqatso lwezixhobo zenyukliya kodwa kuzama ukuphelisa zonke izixhobo zenyukliya kwihlabathi liphela. Oku ngokuqinisekileyo kuya kwandisa ukhuseleko lwaseMelika. Kuba iMfazwe entsha yeCold isanda kuphela isoyikiso senyukliya, inkuthazo karhulumente wase-US kuyo, ngokuchasene neMearsheimer, ayinakuba kukuqinisekisa ukusinda kwayo. Ke, ukuba iinkxalabo "zokhuseleko", njengoko kusoloko kuthethwa, yintoni ephembelela imigaqo-nkqubo yongquzulwano yaseMelika, sifuna enye ingcaciso yelo gama libhidayo.
Umsebenzi weengcali zokwenene zangaphambili ezinjengoHans Morgenthau, kwakunye nabalandeli bakaMarx, unika impendulo: Xa kungekho zigrogriso zokwenene zomkhosi kwilizwe (njengelaseUnited States enethamsanqa elisusela ngo-1812), ukhuseleko aluyonto ngaphandle kwentetho evakalayo kumagunya karhulumente kunye nelizwe. udumo. Umzabalazo wamagunya njengesiphelo wona ngokwawo yinto ekhuthaza bonke abaphezulu abalawulayo kunye noorhulumente. Uqoqosho, umkhosi, i-geopolitical, i-ideological, amandla enkcubeko-nokuba i-hegemon iya kulwela amandla angakumbi, lilonke amandla, etyumza yonke inkcaso kuyo yonke indawo kangangoko kunokwenzeka. "Umgaqo-nkqubo wezopolitiko," utsho uMorgenthau, "ifuna ukugcina amandla, ukwandisa amandla, okanye ukubonisa amandla." Ingaba oku kungenxa yendalo yomntu, njengoko uMorgenthau ephikisana, okanye ukuguquguquka okungenakuphepheka kwamaziko anamandla, okanye inyaniso yokuba abantu abalambele amandla kuphela baphakama phezulu, ngumgaqo oqhelekileyo.
Kuba abantu baseMelika bengafane bajonge urhulumente njengonjalo, abachasi beMfazwe entsha yeCold bayakwenza kakuhle ukuhlala begxininisa ukuba eyona njongo iphambili kukukhusela kunye nokubanga amandla e-hegemonic (okt, "ukhuseleko lwesizwe") lukaRhulumente wase-US, kunye nabanye. amacandelo oshishino—umzekelo, iikontraka zokhuselo—ezinxibelelene ngokusondeleyo norhulumente. Ukuvezwa rhoqo kwe ukulwa yomgaqo-nkqubo wase-US, ngokuchaseneyo nowaseTshayina uthintelo olunxulumeneyo, iya kujongela phantsi inkxaso yoluntu kungquzulwano. Xa amagosa ase-US, ehambelana nokuhanahanisa okumangalisayo, etyhola ukuba i-China isoyikisa uxolo kunye nozinzo lwehlabathi, umntu unokucaphula. Inqaku likaKishore Mahbubani in Umagazini kaHarper enomxholo othi, "Yintoni Ingozi yaseTshayina?":
Okumangalisayo kukuba, kumalungu amahlanu asisigxina eBhunga loKhuseleko leZizwe Ezimanyeneyo (iTshayina, iFransi, iRashiya, iUnited States, neUnited Kingdom), iTshayina ibe kuphela kwelo elingazange lidubule nalinye idubulo lomkhosi linqumla umda walo kwiminyaka engamashumi amathathu. iminyaka, ukususela kwidabi elifutshane lomkhosi waselwandle phakathi kweChina kunye neVietnam ngo-1988. Ngokwahlukileyo, nangexesha loLawulo luka-Obama olunoxolo, umkhosi waseMelika wawisa iibhombu ezingamawaka angamashumi amabini anesithandathu kumazwe asixhenxe ngonyaka omnye. Ngokucacileyo, amaTshayina abuqonda kakuhle ubugcisa bokuzibamba.
I-China ngenene isisisongelo-kulawulo lweqela elincinane laseMelika, eligxile kwezemali, urhulumente, kunye nobuchwepheshe, kwezopolitiko zehlabathi kunye noqoqosho lwehlabathi. Njengoko uDeborah Veneziale echaza kwi Imfazwe eNtsha yaseWashington, uninzi lwentiyo yongxowankulu baseMelika (okanye amacandelo athile ayo) ukuya eTshayina isiphumo sobunzima bokufikelela kwimakethi yaseTshayina: “Iingxilimbela zobuchwephesha zase-US ezifana noGoogle, iAmazon, noFacebook azinayo imarike eTshayina, ngelixa I-Apple kunye neMicrosoft zijongene nobunzima obandayo… [Ezi nkampani] zilangazelela utshintsho kwinkqubo yezopolitiko e-China eya kuvula umnyango wentengiso yelizwe, kwaye abadlali abaphambili kweli candelo basebenza ngenkuthalo ukuqhubela phambili umgaqo-nkqubo okhohlakeleyo waseWashington. Ezemali, ngokunjalo, akonwabanga lulawulo lwenkunzi yaseTshayina, olunqanda ukungena nokuphuma kwenkunzi yelizwe. UGeorge Soros uvakalise ukuphoxeka kwabaxhasi abaninzi bezemali xa yena tweeted ngoJanuwari 2022 ukuba "iXi Jinping sesona soyikiso sikhulu uluntu oluvulelekileyo olujongene nalo namhlanje."
Ngaphandle kwezikhalazo ngenxa yesimo saseTshayina esingeyo-neoliberal, esona sizathu sibalulekileyo seqhinga laseWashington lokujongana ngobundlongondlongo kukuba ukwandiswa kwamandla omkhosi wase-US sisiphelo ngokwako, ekufuneka kufunelwe izizathu zaso. Njengoko u-Morgenthau enokuthi, umgaqo-nkqubo onjalo ubonisa (kwaye unokunceda ukugcina) amandla, eyona ngongoma yokuba ngurhulumente. Ikwaluhlobo lwezinto ezithandwa ziinkampani Lockheed Martin, Raytheon, Boeing, Northrop Grumman, kunye ne-BAE Systems baya kuzuza kwaye bafune. Ayiyomfihlo into yokuba kukho umnyango ojikelezayo phakathi kwePentagon kunye neekontraka zomkhosi zabucala: Nditsho noNobhala wezoKhuselo uLloyd Austin wayekwibhodi yabalawuli beenkampani ezifana noRaytheon ngaphambi kokuba uBiden amtyumbe. Iimfazwe ezibandayo zisemdleni weenkampani ezityebileyo kunye nabaphathi bakarhulumente abanamandla kakhulu, abanokuthi basebenzise ukuthethelela ulwabiwo-mali olukhulu lweCongress kunye nokwandiswa kwamandla abo.
I-China iya kunyanzela uBukhosi base-US
Ukubuyela kwimingcipheko “yokhuseleko”-imingcipheko kukhuseleko lolawulo lwehlabathi (“ubunkokeli” ligama elikhethwayo) labaphezulu base-US—yinyani ukuba njengoko uqoqosho lwase-China lukhula, amandla alo e-geopolitical nawo aya kukhula, ngaloo ndlela ecela umngeni e-US “ ubunkokeli.” Kukho ingqiqo, ke ngoko, ukuba akukho bulungisa obuninzi, kwiinzame ze-Biden zokucothisa ukukhula koqoqosho lwaseTshayina ngo ukunciphisa ukuthunyelwa ngaphandle Iitshiphusi ze-semiconductor ezibukhali kunye nezinye izixhobo ezikumgangatho ophezulu. Nokuba izithintelo ezinjalo zisemdleni wabathengi baseMelika, okanye kuluntu luphela, kuyaxoxwa kakhulu. Ngayiphi na imeko, ukuhambisa ngokuyinxenye iimfazwe zokurhweba ukuba i-US iyanda, kwaye enokuthi ibe yingozi kakhulu kubantu baseMelika, kwanele ukuba abaphikisayo baqaphele ngalo lonke ithuba lokuba ezi mfazwe ziphela kukwenzakalisa uqoqosho lwaseTshayina ngoko kuya kuba nako. ingxaki enkulu ecela umngeni kulawulo lwehlabathi loshishino lobuchwephesha lwaseMelika kunye norhulumente wase-US. Uninzi lwabantu baseMelika bakrelekrele ngokwaneleyo ukuba bazi ukuba umdla wabo kunye nezo zikaRhulumente aziqhelekanga ukungqamana.
Ngokwenene, lo ngumbuzo obalulekileyo ekufuneka uhlale ubuza kumaqonga oluntu: Wkutheni kufuneka sithiye kwaye soyike iTshayina kakhulu? Kwenza ingqiqo ngakumbi ukuthiya kunye nokoyika urhulumente wethu, kunye necandelo leshishini elidityaniswe nalo. I-China ayizange ibangele ukubandezeleka okukhulu komntu, ukuphanziswa kwamakhulu ezigidi zobomi kwizizukulwana ezibini, okuye kwaguqa uluntu lwaseMelika; ingenelwe nje kwizigqibo zabaphathi bamashishini zokufudusa imizi-mveliso kumazwe aphesheya, apho kwakulula ukuxhaphaza abasebenzi ngesantya esiphezulu. Umlo wabasebenzi baseMelika awukho neChina.
Kodwa kuthekani ngobusela baseTshayina bobukrelekrele? Kuthekani ngesoyikiso sayo somkhosi eTaiwan? Kuthekani ngaloo nto yoyikeka Ibhaluni eyadada kwi-airspace yase-US? Ngokuqinisekileyo konke oku kuthethelela iMfazwe Yomlomo entsha enokuhlala isizukulwana okanye ngaphezulu! Ewe, eneneni, njengoko wonke umntu onengqiqo esazi, indlela eyiyo yokujongana nazo naziphi na izoyikiso zokwenyani ezinokubangelwa yiTshayina kukulandela idiplomacy, ngokukhethekileyo ngokusebenzisa elinye lamaziko ahlukeneyo akhoyo kumatyala afana nala, kubandakanywa iZizwe eziManyeneyo kunye neZizwe eziManyeneyo. Umbutho woRhwebo lweHlabathi. Xa i-US iyala indlela ecacileyo yediplomacy ithanda ukunyuka komkhosi kunye ne-rhetoric egqithileyo, kuyacaca ukuba ithatha nje iziphene zokwenyani okanye ezicingelwayo njengezizathu zokulandela enye injongo ekhetha ukungazipapashi. Oku kwacaca xa abalawuli bakaBush bezabalazela ukuhlasela i-Iraq-ukusuka kwizixhobo zembubhiso ukuya ekugxothweni kukaSaddam Hussein ukuze kwakhiwe idemokhrasi entsha emangalisayo-kwaye kucacile ngoku, njengoko ulawulo lweBiden luququzelela umkhosi noqoqosho olungafunekiyo lwento yase China. .
Ngobulungisa, kuyindalo ngokugqibeleleyo kurhulumente we-hegemonic, osetyenziselwa ukufumana indlela yakhe kwaye uqhubekile kwiindawo ezininzi zehlabathi, ukuzama ukuthintela ukuvela koontanga. Njengoko uMarco Rubio watsho efixiza ngomzuzu wokuthetha phandle okuhlaziyayo kwiiveki ezithile ezidlulileyo, “iBrazil yasinqumla isivumelwano sorhwebo neTshayina. Ngoku baya kurhweba ngeemali zabo, bajikeleze idola. Badala uqoqosho lwesibini kwihlabathi, oluzimeleyo ngokupheleleyo e-United States. Akuzukufuneka sithethe ngezohlwayo kwiminyaka emihlanu, kuba kuza kubakho amazwe amaninzi asebenzisa imali ngaphandle kwedola kangangokuba asinakukwazi ukuyigweba.” Ngokwembono yamandla amakhulu, ezi zizenzo zolwaphulo-mthetho ezinkulu, olona lwaphulo-mthetho lubi kakhulu. Ukunqanda ukukwazi ukuxhaphaza kunye nokubetha i-US eyonwabele ukususela ekupheleni kwe-1940s ayinakuxolelwa ngokupheleleyo.
Kodwa abantu baseMelika kufuneka babuze ukuba ingaba isoyikiso esinjalo kumandla karhulumente sikwasisoyikiso na kubo. Mhlawumbi ukunyanzeliswa kobukhosi base-US kunokuba kulungile kubantu baseMelika. Nantoni na ethintela amandla e-elite kusenokwenzeka ukuba andise amandla esininzi. Abo bathanda uxolo, nangayiphi na imeko, kufuneka bakwamkele ukuvela kwegunya elitsha elinokucel’ umngeni imigaqo-nkqubo yelona lizwe lishushu kakhulu emhlabeni, elifana no ukwaphula izivumelwano zoxolo iUnited States iyala. Nangona kunjalo i-China yolawulo-mthetho ingaphakathi, indima yayo kwihlabathi inokuphelela ekubeni yakhayo.
Oku kunjalo ngokukodwa kwimeko yokuba, ekufuneni kwayo inkxaso phakathi kwamanye amazwe kunye nabantu, ayinakubhenela kuyo nayiphi na ingcamango yedemokhrasi ekucingelwa ukuba imele, njengoko i-US ubuncinane inokwenza. Ukuphumelela igunya lokuziphatha, iChina kufuneka ngokwenene Ku hlangula kunokuba nje shu mayele.
Ekugqibeleni, ke, ukunyuka kwe-China kubeka isoyikiso esithe ngqo sokhuseleko: Isongela ukhuseleko lomyalelo wakudala, iWashington-directed, neoliberal, war-as-a-first-resort order. Igrogrisa ngokuzisa ihlabathi lamazwe amaninzi, elingenakohlwaywa Amatyala aseMelika kunye neendlela ezingakumbi amaxhoba anokukhangela kuzo. Abantu kuyo yonke indawo—ngaphandle kwamaziko olawulo aseNtshona—bafanele basivuyele esi sibakala.
I-ZNetwork ixhaswa ngemali kuphela ngesisa sabafundi bayo.
Nikela