UGREG WILPERT: Yeyona Inethiwekhi yeNdaba, kwaye ndinguGreg Wilpert eBaltimore.
Enye yeengongoma eziphambili zokuthetha zolawulo lukaTrump kunye nenkcaso yaseVenezuela kukuba iVenezuela ithwaxwa yintlekele yoluntu ngendlela engazange ibonwe ngaphambili ngenxa yokuba uqoqosho lwayo luye lwawa. Ngokutsho kwabo isizathu sokudodobala kwezoqoqosho kunye nokufuduka eVenezuela kukuzama ukwakha usoshiyali eVenezuela.
UDONALD TRUMP: Kodwa yinto ebuhlungu kakhulu. Akukho nto siyifunayo ngaphandle kokukhathalela abantu abaninzi ababulawa yindlala nabasifa ezitratweni. Le nto yenzekayo apho ilihlazo. Eli yaba lelinye lawona mazwe atyebileyo emhlabeni, kwaye ngequbuliso liyinto nje, libawa, lithwaxwa yintlupheko. Akukho kutya, akukho manzi, akukho moya, akukho kwanto.
UGREG WILPERT: Ukushiya ecaleni umbuzo wokuba ingaba le meko ikufanele na ukubizwa ngokuba yintlekele yobuntu, into leyo owayesakuba ngunozakuzaku weZizwe Ezimanyeneyo uAlfred de Zayas ayiphikisayo, into engathandabuzekiyo kukuba kukho ukudodobala kwezoqoqosho eVenezuela. Kanye kanye le meko yezoqoqosho, ingxaki yokunyuka kwamaxabiso kunye nokunqongophala kwayo, yabakho njani? Lityala likabani? Yaye ngaba isoshiyali sibekek’ ityala? Kwaye iVenezuela ingaphuma kule ngxaki yezoqoqosho?
Ngaphambi kokuba sihlolisise ukusebenza kwezoqoqosho zaseVenezuela ngexesha likaMongameli waseMaduro, kunengqiqo ukujonga ngokufutshane ixesha ngaphambi kokuba uMaduro athathe isikhundla. Ukususela ngenkulungwane yama-20, iVenezuela ibilelona lizwe liphambili ekuthengiseni ioli kumazwe angaphandle. Enyanisweni, ngowe-1920 iVenezuela yayilelona lizwe lithumela ioli kumazwe angaphandle. Imveliso yeoli kuMbindi Mpuma ayizange idlule eVenezuela de kwaba ngoo-1960. Njenganamhlanje, ngelo xesha ukuthunyelwa kweoyile kumazwe angaphandle kwakungaphezulu kweepesenti ezingama-90 zengeniso yaseVenezuela. Ngenxa yoko, zonke ezinye iindlela zemveliso yezoqoqosho, njengezolimo, zehla zaya kutsho kumda omncinane kakhulu womsebenzi wezoqoqosho welizwe. Logama nje amaxabiso e-oyile enyuka, nto leyo abayenzayo ngokungaguquguqukiyo de kwaba sekupheleni kweminyaka yoo-1970, uqoqosho lwaseVenezuela lukhule ngokuhambelana nokunyuka kwamaxabiso eoli. Uqoqosho lwakhula xa amaxabiso e-oyile aphindaphindeka kane kwi-OPEC yowe-1978.
Nangona kunjalo, kancinci kancinci, amaxabiso eoli aqala ukungena kwinqanaba lokungazinzi kwaye ade ehle, ehla ngaphantsi kwe-10 yeedola ngomphanda ngo-1998, unyaka awathi uChavez wonyulwa ngawo njengomongameli waseVenezuela. Kunye noku kungazinzi kwexabiso leoli, uqoqosho lwaseVenezuela nalo luye lwadodobala ukusuka kwenye ingxaki ukuya kwelandelayo. Oku kwanika imvelaphi yonyulo luka-Hugo Chavez ngo-1998. Abantu baseVenezuela babekruqukile kukungaqiniseki kwezoqoqosho kunye nokuhla okungaguqukiyo. I-GDP ye-Real per capita per capita yehle ngama-27 epesenti kwiminyaka engama-20 phakathi ko-1979 no-1999. Inyathelo lokuqala likaChavez kwicala lezoqoqosho yayikukunyusa amaxabiso eoli. Wakhenketha amazwe angamalungu e-OPEC kwaye wabhengeza ingqungquthela yesibini yeentloko zamazwe e-OPEC eCaracas ngasekupheleni kuka-15 ukuze aqinisekise amalungu e-OPEC ukuba abambelele kwizabelo zemveliso yeoli kwaye anyuse amaxabiso e-oyile. Ngokuthe ngcembe amaxabiso eoli anyuka, kunye nokonyuka okongeziweyo ngenxa yemfazwe yase-Iraq ngo-65. Amaxabiso eoli aqhubeka enyuka ngokuthe ngcembe kulo lonke eli xesha, afikelela phezulu kwi-2000 yeedola ngomphanda phambi kokuwa kweLehman Brothers kunye nentlekele yezemali yehlabathi ka-2003. Ngokufanayo, iVenezuela's. uqoqosho luye lwakhula kwaye i-GDP ngomntu ngamnye yenyuka ngokuthe ngcembe, inyuka ngama-140 epesenti, kwaye intlupheko yehle ngesiqingatha ukusuka kuma-2008 epesenti ukuya kuma-35 ekhulwini kumakhaya phakathi kuka-54 no-27.
Ixesha elitsha lokuguquguquka elimiselwe emva kobunzima bezemali behlabathi xa uChavez wagqiba kwelokuba anciphise inkcitho kawonke-wonke ngenxa yokuba ingeniso yeoli yayiphantsi. Njengoko amaxabiso aye abuyela uqoqosho kwakhona. Ukugxekwa okuqhelekileyo kulawulo lwezoqoqosho lukaChavez ngeli xesha kukuba ingeniso yeoli ayizange isetyenziswe ekuguquleni uqoqosho. Oku, nangona kunjalo, akuyonyani ncam. UChavez uzame ukwahlulahlula uqoqosho ngokutshala iibhiliyoni zeedola ukusuka kwingeniso yeoli kwezolimo nakwindawo entsha yemveliso yamashishini, ukusuka kwiiselfowuni ukuya kwiimoto ukuya kwiibhayisekile ukuya kwiimveliso zepetrochemical. Kwakhona, utyalo-mali olukhulu kwiinkqubo zemfundo lwalujongiswe ekuncedeni ekwahluleleni uqoqosho.
Noko ke, ekugqibeleni, ezi nzame zokudibanisa izinto ezahlukeneyo zawa phantsi. Basilela ngenxa yezizathu ezibini ezisondeleleneyo. Okokuqala, ukusukela ngo-2003, urhulumente uye waphumeza iqondo lotshintshiselwano olusisigxina ukuze kulawuleke ukuhamba kwemali eyinkunzi kunye nokuhla kwexabiso lemali yayo, kananjalo njengendlela yokubonelela ngenkxaso-mali yezinto ezibalulekileyo ngokuvumela abathumeli bangaphandle bezinto ezifana nokutya kunye namayeza ukuba bafikelele kwiidola ezinexabiso eliphantsi. . Inkqubo yezinga lotshintshiselwano olusisigxina yasebenza ngokufanelekileyo nje ukuba kukho iidola ezaneleyo eziza kuqoqosho. Noko ke, xa ixabiso leoli laqalisa ukuhla, kwaqala ngo-2008 kwaza kwaphinda ngo-2014, urhulumente wayinciphisa inkxaso-mali yakhe yokuthenga iidola ngexabiso elisemthethweni ukuze kuthengwe izinto ezivela kwamanye amazwe. Oku kuthetha ukuba ukuthengwa kwempahla kumazwe angaphandle kwehle kwaye amaxabiso azo enyuka, nto leyo ebangela ukunyuka kwamaxabiso. Urhulumente wazama ukugcina amaxabiso aphantsi ngokubambelela kumlinganiselo omiselweyo wotshintshiselwano, nangokumisela ulawulo olungqongqo lwamaxabiso. Kodwa urhwebo lwabantsundu luye lwayityeshela le migaqo-nkqubo, nto leyo eyakhokelela ekwenyukeni kwamaxabiso, ukugqwethwa kwamaxabiso, kunye namathuba amaninzi orhwaphilizo.
Ngokukhawuleza emva kokusweleka kukaMongameli Chavez ngumhlaza ngoMatshi 2013, uxinzelelo lwemali ngohlobo lwezinga lotshintshiselwano lwentengiso emnyama lwathatha enye into. Umsantsa phakathi kwezinga lonaniselwano olusemthethweni kunye nezinga lotshintshiselwano lwemalike emnyama liqale ukunyuka laya kutsho kumazinga angazange abonwe ngaphambili, linyusa nangakumbi izinga lokunyuka kwamaxabiso, urhwaphilizo kunye nokunqongophala. Xa amaxabiso eoli ehla ebudeni bonyaka wokuqala kaMaduro eofisini, enciphisa ukuthengwa kweoli evela kwamanye amazwe, lo mjikelo ukhohlakeleyo waphinda waqatsela. UMaduro wazama ukulungelelanisa imigaqo-nkqubo yakhe yezoqoqosho ngamaxesha athile ngokulungelelanisa izinga lotshintshiselwano olusemthethweni kancinane, kodwa umsantsa phakathi kwezinga lotshintshiselwano olusemthethweni kunye nexabiso lemarike emnyama laqhubeka likhula, kangangokuba idola ethengiweyo ngexabiso elisemthethweni ekugqibeleni ixabisa i-1/100 yento leyo. ixabisa kwimarike emnyama. Ke ngo-2015 uMongameli u-Obama wabhengeza iVenezuela ukuba "sisisongelo esingaqhelekanga nesingaqhelekanga kukhuseleko lwesizwe lwase-United States," emvumela ukuba abeke izohlwayo ezijoliswe kumagosa karhulumente athi i-US ityholwa ngokubandakanyeka kurhwebo lweziyobisi okanye urhwaphilizo. Ezi zohlwayo, nangona bezijoliswe kumntu ngamnye, zaqala uthotho lwezithintelo zemali kwintengiselwano yezemali yaseVenezuela kunye neeakhawunti zebhanki, ezikhokelele ekuvalweni kweeakhawunti, nto leyo eyenza ukuba izinto ezithunyelwa ngaphandle kunye nokuthengiselana ngemali kube nzima kurhulumente.
Ngo-Agasti ka-2017, uMongameli uTrump waqinisa kakhulu izohlwayo ngokuthintela amaziko ase-US kunye nabantu ngabanye ukuba bathengise ngetyala laseVenezuela. Oku kwenza ukuba iVenezuela ingakwazi ukuhlengahlengisa amatyala ayo, kwaye yanciphisa ngakumbi amandla oorhulumente okubandakanyeka kurhwebo lwamazwe ngamazwe. Akuzange kwenzeke ngengozi ukuba imveliso yeoli yaseVenezuela yaqala ukuhla ngaxeshanye ukuba isohlwayo solawulo lukaTrump saqala ukusebenza. Umzi-mveliso we-oyile waseVenezuela uxhomekeke kwizinto ezibalulekileyo ezitshintshwayo kunye nezinto eziphuma kwi-oyile evela e-US, engasenakukwazi ukuyingenisa ngaphandle. Ngenxa yoko imveliso yeoli yaseVenezuela iyancipha ukusuka malunga ne-2 yezigidi zemibhobho ngosuku ukuya kwi-1.2 yezigidi phakathi kuka-Agasti 2017 no-Agasti 2018. Ukuhla ngokukhawuleza kweengeniso zeoli ukusuka kwi-93.6 yeebhiliyoni zeedola kwi-2012 ukuya kwi-30.9 yeebhiliyoni ze-2018 kubangele ukuhla ngokukhawuleza kwezinto ezithunyelwa ngaphandle. Ukungeniswa kwamanye amazwe ngokwesiqhelo kuye kwaphuma kwiidola ezingama-66 eebhiliyoni ngo-2012 ukuya kwi-11 yeebhiliyoni zeedola ngo-2018. Oku kwehla kokungeniswa kwamanye amazwe, kunye nokuthutyeleziswa kweemveliso zayo ezibonelelwa ngenkxaso-mali enkulu ukuya kwilizwe elingummelwane laseBrazil neKholombiya, ngokuqinisekileyo kwathetha ukuba kukho ukunqongophala kokutya kunye namayeza.
Ngasekupheleni kuka-2017 ukunqongophala kunye nokunyuka kwamaxabiso kuye kwaba kubi kakhulu kangangokuba i-hyperinflation yaqala. Ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kuye kwaqhubeka kunyuka ngenxa yomjikelezo ombi we-gap ehlala ikhula phakathi kwezinga lotshintshiselwano olusemthethweni kunye nezinga lotshintshiselwano lwemarike emnyama. Ekubeni zazisanda iimveliso ezazithunyelwa ngaphandle kwenkxaso-mali, ngaloo ndlela abantu baseVenezuela banyanzelwa ukuba basebenzise imali yabo ngephanyazo abayifumana ngayo, ukuze baqiniseke ukuba ayilahleki naliphi na ixabiso ngoxa bebenayo. Ezinye iingcali zezoqoqosho ziqikelela ukuba ingeniso eyaphulukana nayo iVenezuela ngenxa yokuhla kwemveliso yeoli iqikelelwa ukuba ibikwi-6 yeebhiliyoni zeerandi ngonyaka. Ukongeza, izohlwayo zithintele iVenezuela ekubuyiseleni i-1 yeebhiliyoni zeerandi ngonyaka kwinkampani ye-oyile esekwe e-US CITGO. Urhulumente waseVenezuela ngoku uqikelela ukuba ilahleko iyonke kwingeniso kurhulumente kule minyaka mine idlulileyo ngenxa yezohlwayo ifikelela kwi-30 yeebhiliyoni zeedola. Ingeniso elahlekileyo ngenxa yezohlwayo, ukuhla kwexabiso leoli, kunye nokunyuka kwamandla emali kudale isaqhwithi soqoqosho esigqibeleleyo esinegalelo ekucuthekeni okumangalisayo koqoqosho lwaseVenezuela. Ngo-2017, i-GDP yomntu ngamnye iye yancipha nge-2/3 ngokumalunga nezinga layo kwi-2012.
Umbuzo omkhulu ngeli xesha oseleyo kukuba ingaba uChavez noMaduro babenokusingatha uqoqosho ngendlela eyahlukileyo ukuze kungabi kwimeko embi ngoku. Lo mbuzo kunzima ukuwuphendula, kodwa mhlawumbi kukho imiba emithathu enxulumene noqoqosho olukhulu awathi uChavez wasilela ukuyilungisa ngexesha lobongameli bakhe. Okokuqala, njengoko abaninzi beye baxoxa, uChavez wasilela ukulunyula i-oyile yaseVenezuela. Noko ke, njengoko kukhankanyiwe ngaphambili, oku akubangelwa kukungazami. UChavez utyale iibhiliyoni kwiinzame ezahlukeneyo zokwandisa izinto eziphuma kwioyile, ukuvelisa, kunye nemveliso yezolimo. Nangona kunjalo, oko oosoqoqosho bakubiza ngokuba 'sisifo samaDatshi' kwaqhubeka, apho imali yasekhaya yaxatyiswa kakhulu, kwaye ezi zixhobo zitsha azikwazanga ukukhuphisana nokuthengwa kwempahla evela kumazwe angaphandle ngexabiso eliphantsi, nto leyo eyenza ukuba kungabikho qoqosho.
Okwesibini, uChavez akazange athathele ingqalelo ukuguquguquka kwexabiso leoli. Ngokwenyani, ekuqaleni kobongameli bakhe uChavez waye wajonga ukuguquguquka njengengxaki kwaye waxhasa ukuyilwa kwengxowa-mali yobutyebi ezimeleyo ebizwa ngokuba yiNgxowa-mali yoTyalo-mali lweMacroeconomic kunye noZinzo. Yayiyilelwe ukubekela bucala imali xa ixabiso leoli liphezulu, yaza yavumela urhulumente ukuba atsale kuyo xa ixabiso liphantsi, ngaloo ndlela kurhatyele ukuphuma kwengeniso yeoli. Nangona kunjalo, emva kokuvalwa kweshishini le-oyile ngo-2003, xa ingeniso yayinqongophele kakhulu kwaye nexabiso le-oyile laqala ukunyuka ngokukhawuleza, izazi zezoqoqosho ze-oyile zaqala ukuqikelela malunga nencopho yeoli kunye nokungathinteleki kokuhla kwemveliso yeoli. Uqikelelo lwalujikeleza ngexesha lokuba ixabiso leoli laliza kufikelela ngokukhawuleza kwiidola ezingama-200 ngomphanda. UChavez wayichitha ingxowa-mali, ekholelwa ukuba ayisafuneki.
Okwesithathu, kwakhona emva kokuvalwa kweshishini leoli ngo-2003, uChavez wazisa inqanaba lotshintshiselwano olulawulwa ngokungqongqo. Ngokungathandabuzekiyo oku kwakuyimfuneko ngelo xesha ngenxa yokuqhutywa kwemali yaseVenezuela, iBolivar, emva komzamo wobhukuqo-mbuso wonyaka ka-2002 kunye nokuvalwa kweshishini leoli ngo-2003. Logama nje ingeniso yeoyile yayiqukuqela kwaye iqhubeka isanda. bekulula ukugcina eli zinga lonaniselwano oluzinzileyo. Nangona kunjalo, ngo-2013 xa uChavez efa, i-gap phakathi kwezinga elisemthethweni kunye nezinga lemarike emnyama liye lakhula kakhulu kangangokuba ukulungiswa kuya kuthetha ukuchithwa okukhulu kwezoqoqosho, apho uMaduro wayengafuni, kunye nezopolitiko mhlawumbi akakwazi ukubeka umngcipheko.
Okokugqibela, asinakuyishiya ngaphandle impembelelo yezohlwayo. Njengoko kukhankanyiwe ngaphambilana, umphumo wabo uye waba mbi. Kodwa ayingonobangela wokuqhambuka kobunzima bezoqoqosho. Endaweni yoko, iingcambu zonxunguphalo zinokufunyanwa kwinqwelo-moya enkulu kunye neenzame ezinxulumeneyo zokugcina iqondo lotshintshiselwano elizinzileyo kodwa elixabiseke kakhulu. Ukungathabathi manyathelo phambi kokugqwethwa kwexabiso elihlala likhula kunye nokwahluka kwamaxabiso phakathi kweVenezuela kunye nabamelwane bayo, kunye nokungakwazi ukoyisa imiqobo yolwahlulo loqoqosho, izohlwayo ngoku zenze imeko embi kakhulu, kwaye ngaphezulu kwayo yenze. phantse akunakwenzeka ukuba urhulumente athathe amanyathelo okulungisa, kuba akanazo izixhobo zokwenza oko.
Lo Greg Wilpert kwiNethiwekhi yeNdaba yokwenyani. Enkosi ngokuzimanya nathi.
I-ZNetwork ixhaswa ngemali kuphela ngesisa sabafundi bayo.
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Njengoko uGreg ecacisa, izinto azifane zibonakale kumajelo eendaba aqhelekileyo, kwaye yintoni eqhuba le mithombo yeendaba ngoku imbi ngakumbi kuba kukho i-orchestrated drive yokutshabalalisa iVenezuela ngandlela zonke, okwangoku, kufutshane nokuhlasela komkhosi okuvulekileyo yi-US. amandla angaphaya.
Ngokomzekelo, siva ukuba iColombia yamkela i-1.5 yezigidi ezivela eVenezuela, ngaphezulu okanye ngaphantsi njengeembacu. Enoba oku kuchanile okanye akunjalo, sisenokungazi. Kodwa iingxelo kudala zifumaneka zisithi mhlawumbi iphinda kabini loo nto isuka eColombia kwiminyaka yakutshanje ngenxa yokuba iColombia yeyona ndawo inobundlobongela kunye nezonakeleyo eLatin America, kodwa ikwayiyo kuphela iqabane elikhoyo apho i-US inalo kuloo ndawo. kwaye umntu ukulungele ukuba nofakelo lomkhosi wase-US. Ngokuqinisekileyo, ulawulo lwase-US alulindelanga ukuba ummi oqhelekileyo akwazi oku e-US. Uqoqosho lwaseColombia iminyaka emininzi lunecandelo leziyobisi elikhulu elixhomekeke kulo, kodwa ngokuqinisekileyo i-US ayiyi kuphawula ngale nto. Akulula ukuba uhlale unolwazi malunga nale miba, kodwa kukho ipateni ende neqhelekileyo yokubandakanyeka okujijekileyo kwe-US.