Ngaba isibhengezo se-US Federal Reserve sokuthotywa okukhulu kwimilinganiselo yenzala kukuthintela ukudodobala koqoqosho eunited States kwaye ugxothe uloyiko lwengozi yehlabathi? Iingcali ezininzi zicinga ukuba kuya kuba njalo. Okona kubi kakhulu, bacinga ukuba izinga lokukhula lingacotha. Abanye abakhi-mkhanyo kwinkampu yongxowankulu bakhathazeke kakhulu. EFransi, uJacques Attali ubona kwangaphambili ingozi eWall Street, ikhaya le-stock exchange yaseNew York kunye nomqinisekisi wokugqibela wephiramidi yemboleko (1), kwaye uMichel Rocard uqinisekile ukuba intlekele yehlabathi isondele kwaye inkqubo sele iza kuqhuma ( 2).
Zininzi iimpawu ze-alarm. Kukho inzala ehlaziyiweyo kwimithombo yegolide kunye nokukhawuleza ukuthenga - ixabiso legolide linyuke nge-32% ngo-2007. Onke amaziko amakhulu ezoqoqosho, kuquka i-International Monetary Fund kunye noMbutho we-Economic Cooperation and Development, baqikelela ukukhula okuphantsi kwihlabathi jikelele.
Konke oku kwaqala xa i-bubble ye-intanethi yaqhuma ngo-2001. Ukuhlangula abatyali-mali, usihlalo we-Federal Reserve wase-US u-Alan Greenspan wagqiba ekubeni akhuthaze imarike yepropati ngokuzisa umgaqo-nkqubo wezinga eliphantsi kakhulu, kunye nokunciphisa iindleko zemali. Oku kwanika abameli bezemali kunye nabathengisi bezindlu inkuthazo yokucenga abantu abaninzi ukuba batyale imali kwizitena nodaka. Kungoko inkqubo yee-subprimes, iimali-mboleko eziguquguqukayo ezinomngcipheko ophezulu wokuboleka imali kwiintsapho ezinengeniso ephantsi okanye abo banetyala elihlwempuzekileyo. Kodwa ngo-2005 i-Federal Reserve yaphakamisa amaxabiso esiseko - ezo yayisandul 'ukunciphisa. Oku kwayilahla yonke inkqubo kwaye iziphumo zabetha inkqubo yebhanki yamazwe ngamazwe ngo-Agasti ka-2007.
Ngezigidi ezithathu US Iintsapho ezijongene nokungakwazi ukuhlawula amatyala kunye namatyala afikelela kwi-200 yeebhiliyoni zeerandi, amanye amaziko etyala aphelelwe yimali. Ukuze bazikhusele kule ngxaki, baye bathengisa amatyala athandabuzekayo kwezinye iibhanki. Iibhanki zibeka amatyala kwiingxowa-mali zotyalo-mali oluqikelelwayo, kwaye imali yadluliselwa kwiibhanki kwihlabathi liphela. Ngoko le ngxaki yanwenwa yaza yagubungela yonke inkqubo yeebhanki ngokukhawuleza.
Amaziko emali ezinkulu, kuquka Citigroup kunye Merrill Lynch kwi US, Northern Rock in EBrithani, Swiss Re kunye UBS in Swizalend kunye neSociรฉtรฉ Gรฉnรฉrale kwi Fransi , yenze ilahleko enkulu kwaye ukrokrela ukuba kukho okuninzi okuzayo. Ukunciphisa umonakalo, abaninzi kwafuneka bamkele imali evela kwimithombo enegunya elawulwa ngamagunya asemazantsi okanye ngoorhulumente abazizityebi ngeoli.
Owona bungakanani bomonakalo awukacaci. Iibhanki ezingundoqo kwi US, iYurophu, i UK, Swizalend kwaye Japhan baye bagalela amakhulu eebhiliyoni zeedola kuqoqosho ukusukela ngo-Agasti ka-2007, kodwa ukuzithemba akuzange kubuyiselwe. Ingxaki yanwenwela ukusuka kwicandelo lezemali ukuya kulo lonke uqoqosho. Izinto ezininzi - ukuhla ngokukhawuleza kwamaxabiso ezindlu kwi US, i UK, Ayalend kwaye Speyin, ukuwa kwedola, i-credit squeeze - ikhomba ukwehla kokukhula. Yongeza koku ukunyuka kwexabiso leoli, izinto ezikrwada kunye neemveliso zokutya. Zonke izithako zentlekele eza kuhlala ixesha elithile, eyona ngxaki inkulu ukusukela oko kubume boqoqosho lwehlabathi kusekwe kumanyano lwehlabathi.
Isiphumo sixhomekeke ekubeni uqoqosho lwase-Asia lungathatha na US njengamandla okuqhuba. Omnye umqondiso, mhlawumbi, ukuba iNtshona iyancipha kwaye iziko loqoqosho lwehlabathi liza kutshintsha ukusuka US ukuba iTshayina. Le ngxaki isenokuphawula ukuphela kwexesha.
Iguqulelwe nguBarbara Wilson
(1) L'Express, ParisNgomhla we-13 kuDisemba 2007.
(2) Le Nouvel Observateur, ParisNgomhla we-13 kuDisemba 2007.
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