Hondo pakati peRussia neUkraine haina kungoparadza hupenyu hwezviuru zvakawanda mumatunhu ese ari maviri, asi zvakare yakarova zvakanyanya kune kuruboshwe uye kuruboshwe-yakasununguka hurukuro yezvematongerwo enyika kuMadokero. Mukufamba kwemakore akawanda, dzidziso dzepfungwa dzakagadzira uye dzakashanda zvinobudirira, zvichibvumira mhinduro yakawanda kana isingafungidzike kune chero kunetsana uye dambudziko munyika yanhasi. Taiziva zvechokwadi kuti chitubu chikuru chezvinetso ndiyo mutemo wevanochengetedza vepamusoro vekuMadokero, inotarisirwa kudzvinyirira vanhu veSouth yepasi rose. Ndicho chikonzero pacifists uye socialists vanofanira kutsoropodza NATO bloc, kunzwira tsitsi nyika dziri pasi pekumanikidzwa kubva kuMadokero, kunyange kana hurumende dzezvematongerwo enyika dziripo dziri kure zvikuru kubva kune chero pfungwa dzedemokrasi. Zviitiko zveKukadzi 24, apo pro-Western Ukraine yakarwiswa nevatongi veRussia, vakazviti varwiri vekurwisa pesvedzero yekuMadokero, vakavhiringa uye vakavhiringidza vazhinji. Zvechokwadi, kutongerwa kwechisimba kwaive kunenge pasi rose, kunze kwehuwandu hwemapoka evanhu uye vanhu vaipikisa kwete chete kuruboshwe rworuboshwe, asiwo chokwadi. Nekudaro, kushoropodzwa kwehondo uye hutsinye kunoshanduka kuve kusina kukwana kwete kungogadzira zvinzvimbo zvezvematongerwo enyika, kana kupa ongororo yezviri kuitika, asi zvakare kupindura mubvunzo wekuti chii chaizvo chinofanira kurwirwa, uye chii chinofanira kurwirwa. kuwanikwa mumamiriro ezvinhu aripo.
Iyo nyaya yekuti zviitiko zvehondo yeRussia-yeUkraine hazvienderane neyakajairwa nyaya yeWestern imperialism ichisimbisa hutongi hwayo pamusoro pedzimwe nyika nevanhu hazvireve kuti isu tinofanira kurega kutsoropodza hurongwa huripo hwepasirese. Pano, njodzi yakasiyana: tinoisa pangozi yekuva vatapi vezvakajairwa zvakagadzirirwa mafomula, uye tinoramba kuongorora chokwadi, icho chinoratidza zvakanyanya kuoma, uye zvakanyanya kukosha, mufananidzo chaiwo nekupokana kwayo kose.
Ngatiedzei kunzwisisa zviri kuitika zvakananga, pasina kutera kune ideological clichรฉs yerimwe divi kana rimwe divi.
Ndiani ane mhosva?
Ehe, iRussia oligarchy uye hutongi hwaPutin hunotakura mutoro mukuru wehondo iripo. Tinogona uye tinofanira kutaura nezvekutyorwa kwekodzero dzevanhu muUkraine, pamusoro pekuti muna 2014 hurumende itsva muKyiv nevatsigiri vayo vakashandisa simba vachipikisa vagari vekuSouth-East (kwete muDonetsk neLugansk chete, asiwo muKharkov. uye Odessa). Munhu anogona uye anofanira kurangarira kuedza kunosekesa kurambidza kana kudzvinyirira mutauro wechiRussia (โchinodikanwa chacho chine unzenza sokupenga,โ sokutaura kwakaita mutungamiriri wokuUkraine Serhiy Loznitsa). Nhasi, izvi zvinotaurwa pachena kwete chete nevaya vanogara vachitsoropodza zviremera muKyiv, asi kunyange nevakawanda vevatsigiri vayo, vakadai saAlexei Arestovich, mupi wezano weMutungamiri Zelensky. Asi kurangarira izvi zvese zvine musoro chete mushure mekunge muparadzi mukuru atumidzwa zita, uye ndivo vatongi veKremlin varipo.
Kutaura chokwadi, hutongi hwakatora chimiro muRussia mumakore apfuura hahuna kudonha kubva kudenga, uye hazvisi izvo zvinokonzeresa kupenga kwemunhu mumwe chete, kana chibereko chemaitiro akashata eboka rakamupoteredza. Zvakanyatsoumbwa pahwaro hwegwaro rehupfumi rairatidza pfungwa dzemazuva ano neoliberalism, uye nerutsigiro rwakakwana rweMadokero.
Kana tichikurukura nezvezvirango, munhu haafanire kukanganwa kuti kwaive kubatanidzwa kweRussia mumisika yepasirese - kuburikidza nekutengesa kunze kwenyika zvicherwa - izvo zvakakonzera kuumbwa kweiyo yakajairika maficha e capitalism munharaunda, zvakangofanana nezvakaitika munyika zhinji muAfrica. kana kuti Asia, iyo yakabva yapa hukama hwemagariro nehukama hwemagariro evanhu, maitiro ayo zvino ari kushorwa ne "chiedza chekuMadokero" se "vasiri veEurope." Panyaya iyi, nenzira, zvirango zvinomanikidzwa uye zvakaverengerwa, zvichikanganisa mamiriro ehupfumi aripo uye zvichirova pachimiro chezvido zviri kuitika muRussia, uye mune ramangwana vanogona kugadzira hwaro hwechinangwa chekuchinja kwehurongwa munyika yedu. Asi shanduko idzi dzinogona kuitika chete mushure mekuparara kwehutongi huripo.
Denderedzwa rinotonga rekuMadokero neUkraine rinogovana mutoro wehondo nehutongi hwaPutin, asi ihurumende iyi ndiyo nhasi ndiyo inonyanya kukonzera dambudziko ririkuitika. Pasina kumubvisa mune zvematongerwo enyika munzvimbo, hatigone kutarisira chero kugadziriswa kwemamiriro ezvinhu aya. Kupokana zvakasiyana kunoreva kwete kungotsigira Kremlin chete, asiwo kubatsira mukurebesa kusingaperi kwehondo nenjodzi dzayo dzese. Izvi zvinofanira kuyeukwa nemunhu chero upi zvake anorota nezvenyika ine vanhu uye yakarurama.
Kupikisa hutongi hwaPutin zvinoreva kupikisa zvakasimba kuedza kuona hutongi uhwu nenzanga yeRussia netsika dzechiRussia kazhinji (zvinova ndizvo chaizvo chinhu chepakati cheparaganda yehurumende iripo). Mumakore makumi maviri ekutonga kwaPutin muRussia, kuratidzira kukuru kwakaitika kakawanda, maguta ese akabuda achipikisa (kubva mudunhu reVolokolamsk kana mudunhu reKhabarovsk), mishandirapamwe yemwedzi yakareba yekupikisa yakarongwa iyo haina kukanda mapfumo pasi kunyangwe zvakanyanya. kudzvinyirirwa. Chinhu chega chakanyanya kusiyanisa kuratidzira kweRussia nezvakaitika kuUkraine nedzimwe nyika dzakawanda ndechekuti kuratidzira kuno kwaigara kune runyararo uye kusina mhirizhonga. Mupfungwa iyi, chiitiko cheRussia chinoramba zvakajeka dzidziso yeGene Sharp, yakakurumbira pakati pevanhu vane rusununguko, kuti udzvinyiriri hunotya kutya kuratidzira murunyararo uye hunogona kukundwa nerubatsiro rwayo. Kukuratidzira kune rugare, pasinei zvapo nechimiro chayo chikuru, zviremera zvakaita nokusakendenga kana kuti kudzvinyirira.
Hondo yemazuva ano inogona kuchinja zvakanyanya mamiriro acho ezvinhu. Asi kuvandudzwa kwezviitiko kuchaenderana nekuti zvinhu zvinofamba sei muUkraine.
Matanho api orugare anofanira kutsigirwa?
Hondo yenguva refu inoisa mubvunzo werunyararo pachirongwa. Bato rinopesana nehondo muRussia rakarwira izvi kubva pazuva rekutanga rehondo. Kunyangwe ongororo dzeruzhinji dzeruzhinji muRussia dzinoratidza kuti ruzhinji rwevanhu runotsigira kupera kwekutanga kweruvengo.
Asi pakutaura kuti pave nerunyararo, munhu haakwanisi kutamba mumaoko eavo vakaparura iyi hondo. Kana kumisa pfuti kusingabatanidzi kubviswa kwemauto kunzvimbo dzavakagara muna Kukadzi 23, danho rakadaro rinonyanya kukurudzira hutsinye uye kucherechedzwa kwe "kodzero" yeimwe nyika kutora uye kubata matunhu eimwe nechisimba. Muchiitiko ichi, hazvina basa zvachose kuti tinonzwa sei pamusoro pezviremera zviripo iye zvino muUkraine: kutorwa kwenharaunda yaro kukanganisa kwete chete kwehutongi hwehurumende, asi kutanga kwekodzero uye rusununguko rwevanhu vanogara. ikoko, vane maonero asina kana munhu anofunga kubvunza. Zvinonyanya kushamisa kana chimwe chinhu chakadai chinokurudzirwa nevamwe vatsigiri vezvematongerwo enyika vane rusununguko kuMadokero, vanotenda kuti zvinogoneka kukurukura kubvumidzwa kwenzvimbo kana kudzokororwa kwemiganhu yenyika dzekunze pasina kufunga nezve izvo vagari venyika idzi vangade. Chii ichi, kana usiri muenzaniso wekare wekufunga kwekoloniyalist, iyo isingacherechedzi kodzero yevagari vemo kuti vazvisarudzire ivo pachavo. Uye kana isu tichitaura nezve chibvumirano pakati pePutin neWest, nei zvakarongwa kugadzirisa nyaya yacho pamutengo weUkraine? Sei, pane kukurukura nezvekuguma kweKherson, usingabvumi kudzoka kweAlaska "kumahombekombe ayo eRussia?"
Zviri pachena kuti kubviswa kweuto reRussia kubva munzvimbo dzakagarwa kuchareva kubvuma kukundwa. Izvi ndizvo chaizvo izvo hutongi hwaPutin hunotsvagirwa kudzivirira zvachose, uye kwete nekuti mumwe munhu muKremlin anoda chaizvo Kherson kana Mariupol akashandurwa kuita matongo. Denderedzwa rinotonga reRussia rinonyatsoziva kuti kukundwa muhondo kuchaita kuti ivo pachavo vapunzike uye mukutanga kwekuchinja kwekuchinja munyika. Ndicho chikonzero nei vakagadzirira kupfuuridzira ruvengo kusingagumi, pasinei zvapo nomutengo uchafanira kubhadharwa nenzanga muchimiro choupenyu hwavanhu kana kuti kukuvadzwa kwoupfumi. Uye kana zvasvika pachibvumirano, vanobatirira kune chero sarudzo inovatendera kuti vatore mbiri yekubudirira. Asi hapafanirwe kuve nekunyepa pano: hutongi hwaPutin inyika iyo humwe hupenyu hunogoneka chete pasi pemamiriro ehondo zvachose. Izvo hazvizokwanisi kumisa chero rugare rwakagadzikana kana kunyange runyararo, uye kwete zvachose nekuti, sezvatinowanzo udzwa, vakaipa ma imperialists vari musimba muKremlin, vasingazorore kusvika vaparadza Ukraine. Russia inotongwa nevasina tsika uye vane huwori pragmatists. Mamiriro eRussia neUkraine inyaya yekusakendenga kwakaenzana kwavari. Nekudaro, vakabatikana mukupokana kwavo uye, vachidziya manzwiro erudzi munharaunda iyo ichiri yakavimbika, havangakwanise kudzokera kumamiriro ezvinhu aivepo kusati kwatanga dambudziko reUkraine.
Sezvatinorangarira, pakutanga kwehondo hurumende yaPutin haina kuisa mberi chero zvichemo zveUkraine. Iyo Kremlin yaiwanzo tadza kugadzira chero zvinonzwisisika zvaidiwa, ichizvimisa kune yakajairika kusimbirira kuti "maNazi" anofungidzirwa kuti anotonga muUkraine. Kusakwanisa kutaura yakatarwa seti yezvinodikanwa kana chirevo chinowirirana maererano nezvinangwa zvehondo mhedzisiro yekuti zvikonzero chaizvo zvekumuka kwemhirizhonga hazvina kurara munharaunda yeRussia-Ukraine nyaya, kana kunyangwe hukama hwenyika. zvachose. Zvikonzero zvehondo zvinofanirwa kutsvakwa mudambudziko rezvematongerwo enyika rehutongi hwaPutin. Denderedzwa raitonga raida โhondo duku, inokundaโ kuti ipedze kurongeka patsva kwesimba rinopesana nemamiriro ezvinhu ehutano hwakaipa hwomutongi, uye nokuparadzana kuri kukura pakati pehurumende nenzanga. Izvozvi zviri pachena kuti kurebesa kwehondo kwakanganisa zvirongwa zveKremlin. Asi kubvuma kukundikana kwemauto kwaizoreva njodzi yakazara yezvematongerwo enyika kune oligarchy yaPutin. Ndosaka muna Kubvumbi 2022, apo musangano weIstanbul wakapotsa wasvika pachibvumirano chekupedza hondo nekutanga kubviswa kwemauto, kufambira mberi kwakangoerekana kwamira. Mushure mekuongorora mamiriro ezvematongerwo enyika emukati, vamiriri vaPutin vakasvika pakugumisa kuti runyararo rwune njodzi kwavari kupfuura kuenderera mberi kwehondo.
Chii chichaitika kuhurumende yaPutin?
Ehe, hutongi hwaPutin hauna kutanga hupenyu hwayo sechimiro chimwechete chatinoona pamberi pedu nhasi. Kutsoropodza uye kupomerwa pamusoro pekuti hurumende iyi "yakatenderwa kwenguva yakareba" (kufanana nemakakatanwa ekunyengera pamusoro pemhosva yekubatana kwevanhu vokuRussia nokuda kwemamiriro ezvinhu aripo iye zvino) hazvina maturo zvachose. Hurongwa hwezvematongerwo enyika muRussia hwakachinja zvishoma nezvishoma, huchiwedzera hutongi, asi hwakazowana chimiro chayo nguva pfupi yadarika, semhedzisiro ye "coup kubva kumusoro" yakaitwa pasi pechiratidziro chekuvandudzwa kwebumbiro remitemo muna 2020. Asi kunyangwe kumukira uku hakuna kuitika muvacuum, uye yakanga isiri mhedzisiro yekuchiva kwaPutin kwesimba kana hutsinye hwedenderedzwa rake remukati. Zvose izvi zvakakonzerwa nekuderera kwehupfumi kwenguva refu, kukura kwekusagutsikana kwevanhu vakawanda, uye kuwedzera kwenhamba yekurwisana mukati meboka rinotonga. Mumamiriro ezvinhu akadaro, avo vane simba havana kuwana imwe nzira yekubuda kunze kwekusimbisa kutonga kwehutongi pamusoro penzanga, kubvisa rusununguko rwedemokrasi rwakasara, kudzvinyirirwa kwakananga, uye ipapo, kana pasina chimwe cheizvi chakanga chakakwana, hondo, iyo, nekuverenga kwavo, yaifungidzirwa. kudzorera kubatana kwevanhu.
Asi kuverenga kwevatenzi veKremlin maererano nekufamba kwehondo muUkraine kwakave kwenhema zvachose. Kune rimwe divi, zviitiko zvezuva nezuva zvinoratidzira zvakanyanya uye zvakanyanya kusagona uye kusakwana kwevanhu vakakwevera nyika munjodzi yazvino vakave; nerumwe rutivi, kuedza kupi nokupi kubuda mumhinganidzo iyi kunoda kuti vazive chokwadi chaicho chokukundikana ikoko - izvi zvinomutsa mubvunzo usina kugadzikana webasa. Nokudaro, vanhu vanotonga zvino munyika yedu vanonyanya kusununguka kunyura mukati-kati munjodzi pane kuedza kuikunda. Ndiyo dambudziko rezvematongerwo enyika muRussia ndicho chikonzero chikuru chekutanga kwehondo, uye chikonzero nei hondo iyi isingagoni kupera, pasinei nekushayikwa kuri pachena kwetariro ipi zvayo yekubudirira.
Hondo haizoperi kusvikira pane shanduko yehutongi muRussia. Ichi hachisi chirevo chepfungwa, asi musimboti wezvematongerwo enyika wehutongi hwaPutin pachawo, usingakwanise kurarama kunze kwekukwevera kunze hondo nekusingaperi. Nehurombo kune vatongi veKremlin, hondo yekusingaperi haigoneke, kunyanya sezvo ichishanduka kuita nhevedzano isingaperi yekutadza uye kukundwa, chimwe chinhu chinoita kuti chisadzikamisa hutongi.
Sezviri pachena nzira yakanakisa yekubuda, iyo vanhu vese vakatenderedza mutungamiri wenyika uye vazhinji vezvematongerwo enyika vari kuMadokero vakarerekera kwairi, ndeyekutipa Putinism pasina Putin munguva pfupi iri kutevera, sezvo mamiriro azvino ehutano hwemugari wekutanga achisiya zvakanyanya kudiwa. . Kuendesa mutoro kune mumwe munhu, neimwe nzira kusvika kune chibvumirano nehurumende dzekunze, uye woenderera mberi kutonga nyika nenzira yekare - iyi ndiyo nzira yekuona iyo iyo veRussia elite iri kutendeuka zvishoma nezvishoma. Asi kunyangwe chiitiko ichi chikazadzikiswa munguva pfupi iri kutevera, hachizobudiriri kumutsiridza chimiro. Russia yakagadzirira kuchinja kwakadzama. Nekupera kwehondo, ivo vachatanga, zvisinei nekuti chero munhu anozvifarira kana kwete.
Yakaturikirwa naDan Erdman
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