Ko kurwisana kwemauto muSyria kwemakore mana, uko kwakatora hupenyu hwevanhu vanopfuura zviuru mazana maviri, kunyanya vanhuwo zvavo, kwakakonzerwa nekuchinja kwemamiriro ekunze?
Ichitsanangurwa seyakaipisisa yakambonyorwa mudunhu, kusanaya kwemvura kunonzi kwakaparadza zvekurima munzvimbo yekuchamhembe kweSyria, kutyaira varimi vakadzingwa kuenda kumaguta, uko urombo, kusatonga zvakanaka kwehurumende nezvimwe zvinhu zvakakonzera kusagadzikana kwakaputika muchirimo cha2011.
"Hatisi kuti kusanaya kwemvura kwakakonzera hondo," akadaro Richard Seager akangwarira, nyanzvi yezvemamiriro ekunze paLamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, uyo akanyora chidzidzo chacho.
"Isu tiri kuti zvakawedzerwa kune zvese zvinonetsa, zvakabatsira kukanda zvinhu pachikumbaridzo mukukonana kwakavhurika. Uye kusanaya kwemvura kwakaoma kudaro kwakawedzera mukana nekuoma kuri kuramba kuchiitwa nevanhu munharaunda iyoyo. "
Doreen Stabinsky, purofesa weGlobal Environmental Politics paCollege yeAtlantic, Maine, US, akaudza IPS kuti zviri pachena kuti hondo yeSyria imamiriro ezvinhu akaoma asingagoni kutsanangurwa chete nekuda kwekusanaya kwemvura uye kuparara kwehurongwa hwekurima.
โAsi isu tinoziva kuti kurima kuchave kumwe kwekutanga kukuvara kwemamiriro ekunze ari kuitika pari zvino,โ vakadaro.
Chokwadi, akadaro, kushanduka kwemamiriro ekunze hakusi kumwe kutyisidzira kuri kure kwekukanganisa kuchaitika muna 2050 kana 2100.
โChiri kuratidzwa netsvakiridzo iyi ndechekuti matambudziko emamiriro ekunze ari kuitika pakurima pari zvino izvo zvinokanganisa zvikuru avo vanorarama nekurima.
"Tinogona kutarisira, kunyangwe munguva pfupi iri kutevera, mamwe emhando dzekukanganisa zvirongwa zvekurima izvo zvinozotungamira mukutama kukuru - mukati menyika nepakati penyika - nemutengo wakakosha wevanhu, hupfumi uye zvisikwa," akawedzera.
Uye zvinoratidzwa netsvakiridzo iyi kupfuura chero chinhu ndechekuti nharaunda yepasi rose inofanirwa kunge ichitora dambudziko remamiriro ekunze - uye kukanganisa kwaro mukugadzirwa kwekurima - zvakanyanya zvakanyanya kupfuura zvazvave nanhasi, akadaro Stabinsky, anove zvakare purofesa anoshanyira hutungamiriri hwekushanduka kwemamiriro ekunze. Uppsala University muSweden.
Zvichakadaro, zvidzidzo zvekare zvakabatanidza shanduko yemamiriro ekunze - kushomeka kwemvura nekusanaya kwemvura - sekukonzeresa kukakavara muDarfur, Sudan.
Vachibvunzwa nezveSyria, Dr Colin P. Kelley, munyori mukuru weongororo iyi, vakaudza IPS kuti: โKubva pane zvandakaverenga, pane humbowo hushoma hwekushanduka kwemamiriro ekunze (kunaya kwemvura kana tembiricha) zvakakonzera kurwisana kweDarfur kwakaitika mugore ra2003.
"Ndinoziva kuti iyi yanga iri nyaya ine gakava," akawedzera.
Sekureva kweongororo nyowani yeColumbia University, shanduko yemamiriro ekunze yakakonzerawo kuwedzera kwekunetsana kwemauto munzvimbo inonzi Fertile Crescent, inotora nzvimbo dzeTurkey uye zhinji dzeSyria neIraq.
Inoti kuwedzera kwekutsvakurudza kunoratidza kuti mamiriro ekunze akanyanyisa, kusanganisira kupisa kwakanyanya uye kusanaya kwemvura, kunowedzera mikana yechisimba, kubva pakurwisa kwega kusvika kuhondo dzakazara.
Vamwe vatsvakurudzi vanofungidzira kuti kudziya kwepasi kunokonzerwa nevanhu kuchawedzera kusawirirana mune ramangwana, kana kuti kunenge kuri kutoita kudaro.
Uye ichangoburwa nhoroondo dzevatapi venhau nemimwe mishumo yakabatanidza hondo muSyria, Iraq uye kumwewo muchikamu kune nyaya dzezvakatipoteredza, kunyanya kushaikwa kwemvura.
Chidzidzo chitsva, kubatanidza mamiriro ekunze, zvemagariro uye zvehupfumi data, ingangove yekutanga kutarisa zvakanyanya uye kuwanda pamibvunzo iyi maererano nehondo iripo.
Ongororo iyi inotiwo kusanaya kwemvura kuchangobva kuitika kwakakanganisa nzvimbo inonzi Fertile Crescent, uko kunofungidzirwa kuti kwakatanga makore 12,000 XNUMX apfuura.
Dunhu iri ragara richiona kushanduka kwemamiriro ekunze.
Asi vachishandisa zvidzidzo zviripo uye tsvakurudzo yavo pachavo, vanyori vakaratidza kuti kubva muna 1900, nzvimbo iyi yave nekudziya kwe1 kusvika ku1.2 degrees Centigrade (inenge 2 degrees Fahrenheit), uye inenge 10-percent kuderedzwa kwekunaya kwemwaka wemvura.
"Vakaratidza kuti maitiro aya anopindirana zvakanaka nemhando dzekudziya kwepasi kunopesvedzerwa nevanhu, uye nekudaro hazvigone kuve zvichikonzerwa nekusiyana kwechisikigo," maererano neongororo iyi.
Uyezve, inoti kudziya kwepasi kwakave nemigumisiro miviri.
Chekutanga, zvinoita sekunge yakanetesa nenzira isina kunanga mafambiro emhepo inounza mhepo inonaya mvura kubva kuMediterranean, ichideredza kunaya kwemvura mumwaka wemvura waNovember-Kubvumbi.
Chechipiri, tembiricha yakakwira yakawedzera kufefeterwa kwemwando kubva muvhu munguva yezhizha rinowanzopisa, zvichipa gore ripi neripi rakaomarara punch imwe-mbiri.
Dunhu iri rakaona kusanaya kwemvura kwakanyanya muma1950, 1980 nema1990. Nekudaro, 2006-10 yaive nyore nyore uye yakarebesa kubva payakavimbika kuchengetedza rekodhi.
Vatsvakurudzi vakagumisa kuti chikamu chekuoma uye kureba uku kungadai kusina kuitika pasina kuchinja kwenguva refu.
Vamwe vaongorori vakaona kuomeswa kwenguva refu muMediterranean yese, uye vakati chikamu chayo chakakonzerwa nekudziya kwemunhu; izvi zvinosanganisira ongororo yapfuura kubva kuUS National Oceanic uye Atmospheric Administration.
Sangano reIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change rakafanotaura kuti Mideast yagara ine mhirizhonga ichaoma mumakumi emakore ari kuuya sezvo kudziya kuri kukonzerwa nevanhu.
Vanyori vechidzidzo ichi vanoti Siria yakaitwa kunyanya kunetseka nezvimwe zvinhu, zvinosanganisira kukura kwehuwandu hwevanhu - kubva pamamiriyoni mana kuma4 kusvika pamamiriyoni makumi maviri nemaviri mumakore achangopfuura.
Zvakare, iyo inotonga mhuri yeAl-Assad yakakurudzira zvirimwa zvekutengesa kunze kwemvura zvakanyanya sekotoni, zvinyorwa zvekudzidza.
Kuchera kusiri pamutemo kwematsime ekudiridza kwakaparadza zvakanyanya mvura yepasi iyo inogona kunge yakapa matura mukati memakore akaoma, akadaro munyori-munyori Shahrzad Mohtadi, mudzidzi akapedza kudzidza paColumbia's School of International and Public Affairs (SIPA) akaita zvehupfumi uye zvemagariro zvikamu zvetsvagiridzo.
Kusanaya kwemvura kwakakurumidza kuitika. Kugadzirwa kwezvekurima, kazhinji chikamu chimwe muzvina chezvigadzirwa zvemunyika, zvakadzikira nechetatu, maererano neongororo iyi.
Kuchamhembe kwakadziva kuchamhembe kwakadziva kumabvazuva, yakati, mombe dzezvipfuyo dzakatoparadzwa; mitengo yezviyo yakapetwa kaviri; uye zvirwere zvine chokuita nekudya pakati pevana zvakaona kuwedzera kukuru.
Vanhu vanosvika miriyoni imwe nemazana mashanu vakatiza kubva kumaruwa vachienda kunharaunda dzemaguta anga atonetswa nekuwanda kwevapoteri kubva muhondo irikuitika muIraq.
Munzvimbo idzi dzine mhirizhonga, hurumende yeAssad haina kuita zvishoma kubatsira vanhu nebasa kana masevhisi, akadaro Mohtadi. Munzvimbo idzi ndipo pakatanga kumukirana.
โKukurumidza kuchinja kwevanhu kunokurudzira kusagadzikana,โ vanodaro vanyori vacho. "Kunyangwe chaive chinhu chikuru kana chakakura hazvibviri kuziva, asi kusanaya kwemvura kunogona kutungamirira kumigumisiro inoparadza kana ichibatanidzwa nekusagadzikana kwakakomba."
Yakarongedzwa naKitty Stapp
Munyori anogona kubatika pa [email inodzivirirwa]