Boris Kagarlitsky iMoscow-based sociologist uye mupepeti wesocialist webhusaiti Rabkor (Worker Correspondent), ane zvinyorwa zvinogara zvichibuda muChirungu pa Russian Kupokana.
Mubvunzurudzo iyi naFederico Fuentes, Kagarlitsky anopa ruzivo rwezvinhu zvemumba zvakakonzera danho rehurumende yeRussia kupinda muUkraine, nei Mutungamiri Vladimir Putin ari kutsvaga "hondo isingaperi", iro basa rakakosha riri kuitwa neruboshwe mukuronga kurwisa hondo, uye. tarisiro dzekusagadzikana kwevanhu muRussia. Imwe vhezheni ipfupi yebvunzurudzo iyi yakatanga kubuda Green Kuruboshwe.
Hurukuro kuMadokero maererano nekupinda kwaPutin kuUkraine zvakanyanya kunangana nekuwedzera kweNATO, zvishuwo zveKremlin zvemamperiya kana hutano hwepfungwa hwaPutin. Asi iwe unopokana kuti hapana chimwe cheizvi chaive chakanyanya kufambisa simba kumashure kwekupinda. Sei?
Kana chiitiko chikuru chikaitika, sehondo yeUkraine, pane kazhinji zvinhu zvakasiyana zvinotamba. Asi iwe unofanirwa kuisa zvinhu izvi mumamiriro ezvinhu chaiwo ezvematongerwo enyika uye emagariro evanhu. Nenzira iyo, zvinhu zvose izvi, pamwe chete nekukakavadzana kwenguva refu pakati peRussia neUkraine, pamwe chete nekurwisana mukati meUkraine uye pakati pevakuru veUkraine, varipo. Zvisinei, zvinhu izvi hazvitsananguri zvakawanda; vane pamusoro zvikuru.
Ngatitange neNATO. Kuwedzera kweNATO ndeyechokwadi. NATO haina kungowedzera kupinda munyika dzaimbova dzeEastern bloc, dzakadai sePoland neHungary; yakawedzerawo kuva matunhu aichimbova eSoviet Union, akadai seLithuania, Latvia neEstonia. Nenzira iyo, NATO haigone kuwedzera nehunyanzvi chero pedyo neRussia, sezvo muganho wayo watove pasi pe200 makiromita kubva kuSt Petersburg. Hatifaniriwo kukanganwa kuti mumakore ekutanga ekutonga kwaPutin, Russia yakanga ine hukama hwakanaka kwazvo neNATO. Putin pachake akareurura kuti aida kuti Russia ijoine NATO. Ndiyo nyika yekuMadokero yakaramba kuva nhengo yeRussia apo hukama hwakatanga kushata - chaizvo nekuda kwekunetsana mukati nekwakapoteredza Ukraine.
Asi zvagara zviri pachena kuti NATO yaisazogamuchira Ukraine senhengo yakazara nekuti izvi zvaizounza dambudziko guru kuNATO. Nenzira dzakawanda, shuviro yeUkraine yekujoinha NATO yakagadzira mamwe matambudziko kuNATO pane kuRussia, nekuti zvaireva kuti Ukraine ichida kuti NATO ishandise mari yakawanda kumauto eUkraine. Chinoshamisa ndechekuti kurwisa kwaPutin kuUkraine hakuna kungotungamira kuti Sweden neFinland vabatane, asi zvave kuita kuti kuve nhengo yeUkraine kugoneke. Kusvika Kukadzi 24, mikana yeUkraine kuve nhengo yakazara yaive kure. Iye zvino, mamiriro ezvinhu achinja, uye maonero eUkraine achive a de facto NATO nyika haisi yechokwadi chete, iri kutove yechokwadi. Saka kana tichida kuona hondo iyi segakava pakati peRussia neNATO, zvino zviri pachena kuti mitemo yaPutin yave isina maturo uye yakawana zvakapesana chaizvo nezvinoratidzirwa sechikonzero chehondo.
Panyaya yeRussia, kana kuti zvishuvo zvaPutin zveimperiya, izvi zvaivepowo: Iwe unongofanira kutarisa kana kuteerera kuRussia propaganda kuti uone kuti inodarika sei mipimo yese maererano nejingoism uye rusaruraganda. Propaganda yeRussia inoramba ichitaura kuti Ukraine haifanirwe kuvapo, iyo nzvimbo yeUkraine inzvimbo yeRussia yakakundwa nevaUkraine. Inoti Russia ichasunungura nzvimbo idzi kubva kuvanhu vanogara ikoko; kuti havasi vanhu vakakodzera munharaunda iyoyo. Mhando dzese dzerusaruraganda, zvirevo zvefascist zvinoitwa pamatanho ehurumende. Iwo mafashama asingadaviriki ehutsinye, xenophobia uye ruvengo.
Tinogona zvakare kutaura kuti kukakavara kwemukati muUkraine kune imwe nhanho chikonzero chehondo. Asi kunetsana uku kwave kuripo kwemakore masere, paine shanduko shoma. Kurwisana kwakaoma kunogona kupfuurira, dzimwe nguva kwemazana emakore, pasina kutungamirira kuhondo. Apo dzinotungamirira kuhondo, zvikonzero chaizvoizvo zvehondo hazviwaniki mumavambo emakakatanwa asi mumamiriro ezvinhu chaiwoiwo. Tora somuenzaniso, kurwisana kweMalvinas/Falkland Islands pakati peBritain neArgentina, uko kwakapfuurira kwemazana emakore. Tsananguro yekuti sei hondo yakaitika muna 1981 haigone kuwanikwa mumabviro emakakatanwa, asi mudambudziko remukati mukati memauto eArginia junta uye, kusvika pamwero wakati, kudiwa kwaMargaret Thatcher kweimwe nyaya yebudiriro yekubatsira kutendeuka. sarudzo. Saka iyi yaive nguva chaiyo yekuti hondo itange: mativi ese aida hondo nekuda kwezvikonzero zvavo zvepamba.
Saka mubvunzo chaiwo ndewekuti nei hondo iyi yakatanga iko zvino, kunyangwe paine matambudziko mukati meUkraine uye pakati peRussia neUkraine iripo kwemakore. Kunyangwe kwangosara vhiki hondo isati yatanga, vazhinji vezvematongerwo enyika vekuRussia vainyatso fungira kuti hondo yaizomuka, nekuti munhu wese aiziva kuti Russia yakanga isati yagadzirira kurwa. Izvi zvinotisvitsa kunyaya kwete yehutano hwepfungwa hwaPutin, asi kugona kwake kuita sarudzo dzine musoro. Wese munhu aiziva kuti hondo yaisazobuda nenzira yayakarongerwa kana kuziviswa nechikwata chaPutin. Kunyange zvakadaro, vakaenda kuhondo. Izvi zvinoratidza kuti vanhu ava vaisakwanisa kana kuverenga zvinhu zvakakosha. Ini handisi muongorori wemauto, asi kunyangwe ini ndaigona kufanotaura kuti Russia yakanga isina mukana wekutora Kyiv uye kuwana kukunda kwakazara. Iwe waifanira kunge usingakwanise zvachose kana kubviswa zvachose kubva kune chokwadi kuti ufunge neimwe nzira. Zvakadaro propaganda yehurumende yakataura zvakapesana. Zvakanaka, zviri pachena zvino kuti ndiani anga ari pachokwadi. Mupfungwa iyoyo, hutano hwepfungwa hwaPutin uye nzira dzinoitwa sarudzo muKremlin dzakaita basa.
Saka chii chaungati ndizvo chaizvo zvakakonzera hondo?
Ndinofunga kuti paiva nezvikonzero zvikuru zviviri.
Yekutanga ndeyepasi rose uye kwenguva refu. Yakanga iri Great Recession ya2007-8, iyo yakachinja hupfumi hwenyika uye mamiriro eRussia mukati maro. Kuderera kwehupfumi kwakaratidza kusasimba kukuru kwehupfumi hweRussia. Asi, panguva imwecheteyo, oligarchs yeRussia yakabatsirwa nayo. Pakatanga kudzikira kwehupfumi, hupfumi hweRussia hwakadzikira pamwero unokurumidza kupfuura chero humwe hupfumi hukuru pasi rose. Yakabva yadzoka nekukurumidza kupfuura chero hupfumi hwenyika. Sei? Nekuti hupfumi hweRussia hwaitsamira pazvinhu zvakabikwa, uye kunyanya mafuta. Kutarisana neKuderera Kukuru, US Federal Reserve yakatanga kudhinda mari, yakawanda iyo yakaguma mumisika yemari uye, pakupedzisira, semari yekufungidzira. Oiri chinhu chakakwana chekudyara kwekufungidzira, sezvo yakabatana zvakanyanya nemisika yemari. Asi, panguva imwe chete, chikamu chehupfumi chaihwo. Saka mutemo weFederal Reserve wakakonzera kuwedzera kukuru kwemitengo yemafuta, izvo zvakazoita kuti mamiriro ezvinhu apo, nepo hupfumi hweRussia huchiramba huchidzikira, Russia yakadururwa mumapetrodollar, nemari yakawedzera kupinda muhomwe dze oligarchs uye state. Imwe nyanzvi yezveupfumi yokuRussia yakambotaura kuti shamwari yepamwoyo yehurumende yeRussia yaiva Federal Reserve. Hurumende yeRussia yaivimba zvakananga nemari yakadhindwa neFederal Reserve: iyo mari yakawanda iyo Federal Reserve yakadhinda, mari yakawanda yevakuru veRussia yakawana. Vaisafanira kuita chero chinhu kunze kwekumirira Federal Reserve kudhinda mamwe madhora. Ndiro raiva zano ravo rose. Asi kana iyo Federal Reserve yangotanga kudhinda mari shoma, kana kutanga kushandisa mari iyi neimwe nzira, sezvakaitika panguva yeCCIDID-19, zvino rakava dambudziko kuguta reRussia.
Zvose izvi zvakaita kuti uori huwedzere. Russia yaigara ine huori, asi huwori hwasvika pakakwirira. Vakuru veRussia vakatarisana nedambudziko rinoshamisa rekuwandisa, senge chii Rosa Luxembourg anotsanangurwa mubhuku rake. Imwe mhinduro yaive yekufambisa iyi mari yekuwedzera kune mauto ekuwedzera uye kugadzira akawanda emauto, Asi zvino unofanirwa kushandisa iyi mauto hardware neimwe nzira kana iwe uchida kuenderera mberi nekudyara mari yakawanda muchikamu ichi.
Asi irworwo runongova rutivi rumwe rwenhau yacho nokuti, panguva imwe cheteyo, mamiriro ezvinhu epamba akanga achiipa zvikuru. Ipo mari yese iyi yaienda mumaoko evakuru uye nechikamu chidiki chevepakati, hutano, masevhisi, hupfumi - zvikamu izvo zvanga zvatove nemari shoma - zvakawedzera kuderedzwa pakushandisa kuitira kuti vepamusoro vaunganidze mari yakawanda. . Mumwe muenzaniso weizvi yaive shanduko yepenjeni ye2018, iyo yakatarisana nekupikiswa kwakasimba.
Fungidzira kuti mugari wepakati weRussia akanzwa sei. Vaiziva kuti pakanga paine mari yakawanda yaiyerera mumaoko e oligarchy, hurumende yehurumende, vatungamiri vepamusoro, uye shamwari dzaPutin. Vaigona kuona kuvakwa kwedzimba dzehumambo dzinoshamisa - kukanganwa nezveVersaille muFrance; pedyo nepandinenge ndine wangu dacha [imba yezororo], unogona kuona mamwe madziro akakura paunenge uchityaira kubva ipapo uchienda kuMoscow. Chii chiri kuseri kwemadziro aya? Palaces. Tinozviziva nekuti internet inobvumidza iwe kuti uwane zvese. Dzimba idzi dzakakura kudarika zvauchawana muVersaille. Uye izvi zviri munzvimbo inoonekwa nevapfumi kunge yechipiri; haisi kunyange iyo yakapfuma kwazvo yeRussia oligarchs inogara.
Saka vanhu vanoona izvozvo uye vanoona kuti mamiriro ezvinhu evoruzhinji ari kuramba achiwedzera kuipa, kuti mari inotambira chaiyo iri kuderera uye mitengo iri kukwira, vari kuva nematambudziko ekuwana mabasa akanaka. Zvose izvi zvinounza kusagutsikana kukuru. Kusagutsikana uku kazhinji hakusi kwezvematongerwo enyika, asi kunokonzeresa hunhu hunotyisa. Zvekuti ratova dambudziko kune hurongwa hwehondo hwehurumende yeRussia, nekuti haikwanise kuunganidza vanhu kumauto. Vanhu havazongorwira hutongi uhu. Hapana anoda kuvapa chero zvibayiro, nekuti vanovengwa nemunhu wese.
Pamusoro peizvi, une chokwadi chekuti masangano ezvematongerwo enyika - kunyangwe democracy yemanyepo yataive nayo nesarudzo dzaikwikwidzwa nemapato aive ari pasi pehutongi hwehutongi - dzakaparadzwa mumakore maviri apfuura nekuda kwekuyedza kwezvikwata zvaPutin kuti vauye. simbisa simba. Putin ari kuchembera uye achirwara zvakanyanya, saka dambudziko rekuchinja kwesimba nderechokwadi, asi chero mhando yekuchinja kwemasangano haigoneki mumamiriro ezvinhu aya.
Saka unozvibata sei zvese izvi? Zvakanaka, mhinduro yakanakisa ndeyekuuya neimwe mhando yekunyanyisa uye inoshamisa mamiriro. Mamiriro ezvinhu anopembedza mamiriro enjodzi, apo vanhu vanoita sarudzo vanogona kudarika chero chipingamupinyi chesangano kana chebumbiro uye kuita chero sarudzo dzavanoda kuita. Uye hondo ndiyo zvichida nzira yakanakisisa yekugadzira mamiriro ezvinhu akadaro.
Tichifunga zvaunotaura nezve Kremlin kushaikwa kwehurongwa hwekuenda kuhondo, pane pfungwa yekuti zvinangwa zvaPutin ndezvipi muUkraine, uye kana vari kufarira nhaurirano neUkraine kuti vazviwane?
Kupinda kwacho kwakagadziridzwa zvakanyanya uye pakanga pasina zano renguva refu shure kwayo. Pakangokundikana zano rakavandudzwa rehurumende, vakabva vatanga kuumba zvikonzero zvitsva nezvinangwa zvehondo post-facto. Isu tiri kubata nenyaya isingawanzo kuitika umo nyika inorwa hondo ine hutsinye asi ichinetsekana kutsanangura kuti zvinangwa zvayo ndezvipi kana kutsanangura kune veruzhinji. Izvi zvimwe nekuti vevakuru vakavhiringidzika, havazive zvekuita uye vari kutsvaga nzira yekubuda nayo. Asi panguva ino havakwanisi kuwana imwe.
Dambudziko guru parizvino harisi rekuti havadi kutaurirana; Dambudziko guru nderekuti, zvisinei kuti chii chavanowana kuburikidza nenhaurirano, havazokwanisi kuitengesa kune veruzhinji nekupa kusagutsikana kukuru kuripo. Ichi ndicho chikonzero zvakaoma kuti hurumende yeRussia uye hurumende yeRussia isvike pakugadzirisa. Haisi nyaya yekungoita chibvumirano neUkraine neWest, izvo zvavaigona kuita. Vanofanira kukwanisa kutengesa chero chibvumirano chavanoita kune veruzhinji vepamba, chiri chinhu chavasingakwanise kuita. Hazvina mhosva kuti izvi zvinopera sei, zvichaunza dambudziko rakakura rehunhu, rezvematongerwo enyika, repfungwa uye, kunyangwe pamwe, kusagadzikana munyika…
Kubva pane zvauri kutaura, kuenderera mberi kwehondo saka kwakanakira Putin pane nhaurirano? Ndinobvunza izvi nokuti mukati meWestern left, zvakajairika kunzwa nharo yokuti NATO neUkraine vanoda kukwevera kunze kwehondo uye vanoramba nhaurirano. Asi mashoko ako anoita seanoratidza zvakasiyana...
Zvamazvirokwazvo. Ndokusaka, mukutaura kwazvino, Putin akaburitsa chishuwo chake chekurebesa dambudziko zvakanyanya sezvinobvira. Sezvandakanyora pamusoro, vanga vakanyatsojeka pamusoro pekuita mutambo hondo isingaperi izvo zvinopfuurira nokusingaperi, umo zvibvumirano zvisingambosvikiki, nokuti havazivi chokubvumirana. Uye, sezvandambotaura, handizvo nekuti havagone kuregeredza kana kunyangwe nekuti havadi kuregeredza; imhaka yekuti havagone kutengesa izvi kune veruzhinji mudzimba. Kunyanya sezvo kupindira kwakagadzira pfungwa yakasimba yejingoism uye chido chechokwadi chehondo pakati pechikamu chevanhu. Vakakwanisa kubatanidza zvakanyanya reactionary, zvakanyanya hutsinye, zvakanyanya kuipa zvenzanga yeRussia kumashure kwehondo. Dambudziko ravepo nderekuti zvinhu izvi zvave nengozi kunyangwe kuhurumende pachayo, nekuti panguva chaiyo iyo hurumende inotaurirana nekuita chero rudzi rwekugadzirisa, inobva yave chinangwa cheaya masimba ekuita.
Izvi zvaitoonekwa muna Kubvumbi, apo a musangano pakati penhumwa dzeRussia neUkraine muIstanbul yakabvumirana kune imwe mhando yekugadzirisa iyo yaisanganisira chiziviso cheUkraine kuti yaisazobatana neNATO. Ichi chaive chimwe chinhu Russia yaigona kushandisa kururamisa kupinda kwayo uye kunongedzera kwairi sekukunda. Asi nepo veUkraine vakanga vakagadzirira kusaina, Russia haina kusaina. Kuti tinzwisise chikonzero nei, tinofanira kutarisa zvakaitika mukati meRussia. Zuva rimwe chetero ravakazivisa ichi chibvumirano chokutanga, pakanga pane kuputika chaiko kwehasha noruvengo munhau dzinotsigira hurumende, kumukira chaiko kwebato rinotsigira hondo, uko kwaibatanidza tyisidziro dzokuuraya vaikurukurirana. Mukupindura, Russia yakabuda kubva pachibvumirano. Vakatarisana nemasimba kubva kugehena avakanga vasunungura, vanhu vaPutin vakatya.
Wobva wafunga kuti, kune rumwe rutivi, une anti-war manzwiro akasimba kwazvo, kunyangwe akadzvinyirirwa zvakanyanya. Hutongi hwaPutin hwakanamirana zvakanyanya pakati pedombo nenzvimbo yakaoma, nekuti une manzwiro akasimba ekurwisa hondo uye une pro-war, jingoistic, mauto, mubatanidzwa wenyika unozopikisa nguva iyo hurumende inosvika kugadzirisa.
Nyaya yakaipisisa yaPutin - uye haina kuisirwa kuti pane imwe nguva izvi zvinogona kuitika, kunyanya kana Russia ikakundwa muchiuto - ndeyekuti mauto aya, akasiyana zvakanyanya uye anopikisana pane imwe neimwe nyaya, anogona kurwisa kamwe kamwe. hurumende panguva imwe chete kubva kumativi akasiyana. Izvi ndizvo zvakaitika kuRussia muna 1917, apo hutongi hwemadzimambo hwakaparara kwete nekuda kwemauto anopikisa hondo chete, asiwo nekuda kwehasha dzevari muuto uye muhurumende vasina kufara nemarwirwo aiitwa hondo. . Aya mauto maviri akarwisa hurumende yetsarist panguva imwe chete, zvichiita kuti iparare. Vanhu vaPutin vanoziva nhoroondo iyi, asi pane zvishoma zvavanogona kuita nezvazvo.
Ndinoda kudzokera kumusangano wekurwisana nehondo muRussia, asi ndinoda kutevera pane imwe pfungwa yawakasimudza maererano nemauto ehurumende yekurudyi akasunungurwa muRussia. Izvi zvine chekuita nenhaurirano yakatenderedza fascism muRussia neUkraine. Iwe unopa sei hurumende muMoscow neKyiv uye basa rinoitwa nevefascist kana vari kure-kurudyi nyika mukati kana kunze kwehurumende idzi? Hondo yakabatsira here kumisa mafungiro aya kana kuti yakazarura nzvimbo yemamwe manzwi?
Mativi ese ari maviri anopomera rimwe divi kuve fascist, asi ini ndinofunga kuti hapana mativi ari fascist. Izvo zvakati, pfungwa yekurudyi, uye maitiro akajairwa ekurudyi-bapiro populism, uye kunyangwe fascism, aripo munyika mbiri idzi.
Panyaya dzezvematongerwo enyika nemagariro evanhu, mativi maviri aya haana kunyanya kusiyana. Chokwadi, pane misiyano. Semuenzaniso, Ukraine ine nyika isina kusimba zvakanyanya. Izvi zvinogadzira nzvimbo umo kodzero yekurudyi inogona kuita zvisiri zvehurumende-inodzorwa mabasa ekudzvinyirira, mune dzimwe nguva nerutsigiro rwezvinhu zveUkraine kuchengetedza masevhisi. Nyika yeRussia haibvumiri zvinhu zvakadaro kuti zviitike. Iko hakuna midziyo yekudzvinyirira yakavanzika kana vamiriri nekuti nyika yeRussia ine mhedziso yekutonga pamusoro pekudzvinyirirwa. MuRussia, kudzvinyirirwa kunoiswa pakati, nepo muUkraine kunoiswa. Panguva imwecheteyo, kusiyana neRussia, Ukraine ine sangano revanhu risina kudzvinyirirwa, chaizvoizvo nokuti nyika haina simba. Nyika haina kudzvanyirira veruzhinji muUkraine nekuti haina simba rekuitsikirira sezvakaita muRussia.
Mumwe mutsauko ndewekuti oligarchy yeUkraine haina kubatanidzwa, nepo oligarchy yeRussia yakabatanidzwa kutenderedza Putin - kana kuti ingangoita kusvika nguva pfupi yadarika. IUkraine oligarchy haina kumbobvira yabatanidzwa nekuti yakanga isina zvakawanda munzira yemafuta kana zvimwe zviwanikwa zvaigona kutengeswa pamusika wepasi rose kuti uwane mari nyore. Panzvimbo iyoyo, maOligarchs ekuUkraine akarwisa zvakarongeka. Izvi zvakagadzira mufananidzo weUkraine seyakawanda demokrasi, izvo zvisiri. Asi, inyika isina kusimba ine oligarchies anokwikwidza, chimwe chinhu chakafanana neiyo yakakurumbira nyanzvi yezvematongerwo enyika Robert Dahl akadana a. polyarchy.
Saka pane misiyano, asi haichinji chokwadi chekuti ideological content yeRussia neUkraine nationalism yakafanana chaizvo uye magariro ehurumende uye capitalism munyika mbiri dzakafanana. Ose ari maviri anotongwa ne oligarchic, peripheral capitalism.
Zvisinei, zvakakosha kuziva kuti kune zvimwe zviratidzo zvakanaka kwazvo padivi reUkraine. Ngativei pachena, hapana nzira yekuti iwe unogona kuve neanopesana nehondo kufamba muUkraine. Izvi zvinonzwisisika nekuti Ukraine ndiyo nyika iri kurwiswa. Ndiye akabatwa nechisimba cheRussia. Kana guta rako riri kubhombwa nekuputirwa zuva nezuva, haugone kuratidzira kupokana nemauto ako ane zvombo, ari kurwisa kuti akuchengetedze.
Asi kune tsika iri kukura yekurwisa nyika yeUkraine mukati menharaunda yeUkraine uye gakava riri kukura pamusoro pezvekuita, kana uye kana Ukraine yakunda. Igakava rinonyanya kushanda uye dzimwe nguva rine hasha, umo mumwe weanonyanya kunakidza mavara ari Oleksiy Arestovych. Anobva muchiuto uye ari chipangamazano uye mutauriri weZelensky. Handizivi kuti chinzvimbo chake chakasimba sei mukati mekutonga, asi ave akakurumbira, muRussia neUkraine. Arestovych inoramba ichisundidzira meseji nezve rudzi rutsva rweUkraine runofanira kubuda muhondo iyi: iyo inokunda kupatsanurana pakati pekumabvazuva nekumadokero, pakati pevatauri veRussia nevatauri veUkraine. Anotaura nezvekudikanwa kwekukodzera mutauro weRussia semutauro wekuzivikanwa kweUkraine, kusimudzira tsika dzeRussia muUkraine, uye kupa tariro kune avo vanobva kuRussia vanoda kugara nekushanda muKyiv. Anoti Ukraine nyowani inofanirwa kukunda kupatsanura uye kubatanidza munhu wese.
Nekuda kweizvi, anorwiswa zvine hungwaru nekurudyi, kusanganisira nekutyisidzira iye nemhuri yake. VekuUkraine verudzi vanomuvenga, asi pane zvishoma zvavanogona kuita, nekuti ave munhu ane mukurumbira, kusanganisira mukati memauto. Izvo zvakakosha kuti uzive kuti kumberi, mauto eUkraine anonyanya kuumbwa nevatauri veRussia. Pamusoro peizvi, une Territorial Defence Force, uto rekuzvipira rine mauto anosvika mazana maviri ane pfuti anorwa kumabvazuva kweUkraine, avo vanonyanya kutaura chiRussian. Saka zvinoita sekunge zvinogoneka kuti Ukraine ichaita shanduko dzakakomba munzira dzenharaunda yakabatana kana hondo yapera. Izvo zvakare hazvina kuisirwa kuti inogona kutarisana neimwe mhando yekupokana kwevagari - kunyangwe ingangove hondo yevagari - asi kuchiri kutanga kutonga.
Iye zvino ngatiendei kune anti-war movement muRussia. Ndeapi mamiriro ezvinhu aripo ekurwisa hondo?
Hondo payakatanga, muRussia maive nekuratidzira kwakawanda, asi vakadzvinyirirwa zvine utsinye. Chokwadi chiripo ndechekuti pakanga pasina nzira yaungaratidzira nayo mumigwagwa, nokuti waibva wangorohwa woiswa mujeri. Muchina wehurumende wekudzvanyirira wakakwanisa kukunda muhondo yekutonga migwagwa, kunyange hazvo vaida kudzvanyirirwa kuti vakwanise kuita izvi. Izvo zvakakosha kuti tisakanganwe kuti pakave nekuratidzira kukuru, kwaisanganisira mazana ezviuru zvevanhu, mukati memakore maviri apfuura, pamwe nekuedza kwenguva refu kwemaitiro ehudzvanyiriri kuparadza mafambiro aya. Vakawana izvi, kwekanguva.
Vanhu vanokwanisa kuendeswa kujeri nekuda kwekuita chirevo cheruzhinji chinopokana nehondo. Kungoshandisa mamwe mazwi kunogona kureva kuti wakatarisana nenguva yejeri. Ivo akatongera mutevedzeri wemanisiparati muMoscow kusvika kumakore manomwe mujeri nekuda kwekutaura chimwe chinhu chinoshoropodza hondo panguva yemusangano wekanzuru yeguta. Pandinoburitsa chimwe chinhu muchiRussia, handimboshandisi izwi rekuti hondo, nekuti kungoshandisa izwi rekuti hondo kunoreva kuti ndaigona kugamuchira faindi kana jeri. Saka unogona kufungidzira zvakaita mhepo.
Zvakangodaro, kana iwe ukatarisa paRussia pasocial media network, kwaunogona kutumira usingazivikanwe, mamiriro ekunze haana kunaka kuhondo. Vanhu vanotsoropodza zvakanyanya uye vanoburitsa akawanda ehasha zvinyorwa zvinopesana nehondo. Saka iyo anti-war movement haina kusimba, asi ine simba guru.
Nderipi basa rakaitwa neruboshwe mukuronga kurwisa hondo? Chii chaungatiudze nezvezvinzvimbo zvakatorwa kuhondo neCommunist Party yeRussian Federation?
Mapato ari pamutemo mukati meDuma anotsigira hondo nehutongi, kusanganisira mapato maviri anonyepedzera kuva "bapiro rekuruboshwe": Bato reCommunist reRussian Federation (CPRF) uye vanonzi social democrats yeA Just Russia. Asi kana ukatarisa zvakadzama, unoona kuti pavanenge vaine varatidziri venzvimbo-uye-mafaira pasi, vanhu ava vanowanzo pikisa hondo. Vazhinji vavo vave kubuda mumapato aya. Vamwe vakazivisa kushora kwavo pachena, zvakadai se Yevgeny Stupin, mutevedzeri ane mutsa uye anozivikanwa zvikuru [CPRF] muMoscow City Duma, kana Andrei Danilov, inonakidza uye yakakurumbira njere kubva kuYakutia. Pane vatungamiri vatsva vari kusimukirawo, kusanganisira kubva mumapato aya. Iwe une, semuenzaniso, Anna Ochkina, uyo aive mumwe wemazwi makuru ekuruboshwe mukati meA Just Russia asi akasiya bato, achitaura pachena nezvehondo. Mupfungwa iyoyo, nepo vatungamiriri vachitaura vachitsigira hondo, havatsigirwi namasimba masimba api naapi ari pasi. Pasi, kuruboshwe ndiko, handifanire kuti "yakanaka" asi imhenyu zvechokwadi, uye inoshingaira uye ichikura.
Chinhu chimwe chekucherekedza ndechekuti vanhu vazhinji vanobva kumapato anopikisa vakabuda munyika. Hurumende yakanyora pachena vanoverengeka vavo "vamiriri vekunze". Munhu wese anoziva kuti danho rinotevera mushure mekunge wanzi agent wekunze nderekuti unoiswa mujeri, ndosaka vakawanda vakasiya. Vakanditi ndiri foreign agent, ndinofungidzira nechinangwa chekuda kuti ndiende, asi handisi kuzoenda. Chinhu chinonakidza kubva-chigadzirwa chegwaro iri chave chekuti, nepo vazhinji vevatungamiriri vebato rinopikisa vakabuda munyika - kunze kwevashoma, senge. Alexey Navalny, uyo akanga atova mujeri, uye Ilya Yashin, uyo achangobva kuiswa mujeri - avo vakagara muRussia vanowanzobva kuruboshwe. Saka, zvinonakidza, kuruboshwe rwave kuita rudzi rwesimba rehegemonic mukati meiyo anti-war movement.
Iyo anti-war movement ndeyechokwadi, kunyangwe yakamanikidzwa pasi pevhu. Uye iri kuwedzera, nekuti vanhu vari kutanga kunzwisisa kuti haisi yehondo chete: ndeyezvematongerwo enyika nemagariro. Chiratidzo chinonakidza cheizvi ndechekuti zvikamu zvekupikisa kwakasununguka izvo zvaimbofungira chero chinhu chipi zvacho chekuruboshwe, zvino zvave kufamba kuruboshwe. Somuenzaniso, Yashin munguva pfupi yapfuura akazivisa kuti akanga ane kusawirirana kwakati naNavalny nemhaka yokuti iye amene anodudza zvikuru somunhu woruboshwe, izvo zvakatishamisa nemhaka yokuti taigara tichifunga nezvake somunhu akasununguka. Mumwe muenzaniso ndewe Yulia Galyamina, munhu ane mutsa zvikuru uye akakosha wevanopikisa rusununguko, uyo achangobva kutaura kuti shamwari dzake dzepamoyo mubato macommunist. Saka pane zvechokwadi kuchinja kune kuruboshwe mukati mekufamba.
Pakupedzisira, ndinoda kutendeukira kuchinangwa cheWest kuRussia uye nyaya yekuchinja kwehutongi. Wakanyora nguva pfupi yadarika kuti nepo vatungamiriri vekumadokero "vasingabvumire Russia kukunda muhondo ... havadi kuti hutongi hweRussia huchinje." Izvi zvinoratidzika sekucheka rondedzero inotonga kuMadokero, uye kunyangwe Madokero akasiya, kuti kuseri kwezvinangwa zveUS muhondo yeUkraine kunetesa Russia uye kukurudzira imwe shanduko yehutongi. Sei uchitenda kuti havasi kufarira kuchinja hurumende yeRussia?
Zvakanaka, zvinoenderana nezvauri kureva nekuchinja kwehutongi. Kana nekuchinja kwehurumende unongoreva kushandura zita remutungamiri wenyika, saka ndizvo chaizvo zvinodiwa neWest. Ivo zvechokwadi vanoda kuti Putin abve pachigaro nekuti Putin akaenda kure, nekuti Putin haana kuvimbika zvachose, nekuti Putin ane muchetura uye, kusvika pamwero wakati, anopenga kana asingafungidzike uye ane ngozi. Saka vanoda kumubvisa.
Asi ivo vanoda kuti Russia ive yegutsaruzhinji, yakavhurika nzanga, inotongwa nevanhu vasina uori uye vane hanya nekusimudzira magariro nehupfumi hwenyika? Ndinokahadzika nazvo. Chavanoda iPutinism pasina Putin. Vangangodawo shanduko diki dzekushongedza, sekuisa dzimwe nyanzvi dzehupfumi muhurumende, kunyange hazvo, zvichifanira kutaurwa, kuti hurumende yakatotongwa nevanoongorora hupfumi. Nyanzvi munyaya dzezvehupfumi dzose, mukati nekunze kwehurumende, dzine maonero akafanana nemaitiro ehupfumi. Vose vanogovana pfungwa imwechete yeRussia inobatanidzwa muhupfumi hwepasi rose semutengesi wezvigadzirwa zvemagetsi uye simba, uye naizvozvo inowedzera kuvimba nemisika yekuMadokero.
Nyika dzekuMadokero dzinoda kuti Putin abve pachigaro uye vakuru veRussia vanoda chinhu chimwe chete - pane kubvumirana kwakazara pane izvi. Pane dambudziko rimwe chete diki: Putin haasi kuzosiya chigaro. Uyezve, kana uye paanozopedzisira adzika pasi - mune chero chimiro ichi chingatora - haizove iyo kuguma kwenyaya, sezvo veWestern and Russian elites vanotarisira; pachinzvimbo kuchava kutanga kwedambudziko rakadzama zvikuru. Neizvi handisi kutaura nezveRussia inoparara; Ndiri kutaura nezve magariro nezvematongerwo enyika kurwira mukati meRussia kwemasimba uye pesvedzero.
Shanduko chaiyo inoreva kushandura Russia kuita nzanga yegutsaruzhinji, inotongwa nezvido zvemumba uye kwete nezvido zvemisika yekune dzimwe nyika, mari yekunze uye mari yeRussia kunze kwenyika, inova nyaya yakakosha kune vepamusoro veRussia kana zvasvika pakuita sarudzo. Nzanga yeRussia inoda rudzi rwakasiyana rwekusimudzira hupfumi uye vanhu vanonzwisisa kuti izvi zvakakosha. Izvi zvinopesana zvachose nemaonero anofungidzirwa nevakuru muRussia nekuMadokero.
Mune imwe pfungwa, isu tine mamiriro akafanana chaizvo neakatarisana neRussia muna 1916-17, apo zvaive pachena kuti maBritish nemaGerman aive akadyiswa namambo. Izvi zvakagadzira mamiriro ezvinhu anoshamisa, nokuti maGermany neBritish vakanga vachirwisana, asi vaibvumirana kuti Nicolas II aifanira kuenda. MaGermany aida izvi nokuti vaitarisira kuti Russia yaizotaurirana yobuda muhondo. VaChirungu vaitarisira hurumende itsva kuti ienderere mberi nehondo nenzira inobudirira. Kana iwe uchirangarira, Nicholas II akasiya basa uye chimurenga chakatanga - chimwe chinhu chisina kufungidzirwa mune chero zvirongwa zveGerman kana maBritish.
Ndinofunga kuti mamiriro ezvinhu nhasi akafanana zvikuru: vanoda kuti Putin aende asi vanoda kuti hurumende igare yakasimba, kunyange kana zvichida pangava nekumwe kutenderera kumashure kwehutongi hwehutongi kune izvo zvaivepo 2020 isati yasvika. Chaizvoizvo, "kudzoka. kune zvakajairwa” pasina Putin uye pasina kumwe kudzvanyirira kwakanyanya uye nechisimba chakanyanya. Asi hazvisi kuzoitika nenzira iyoyo. Hutongi huchapunzika nekukurumidza kana kuti gare gare - uye pamwe nekukurumidza kwete gare gare. Zvakawanda zvinoenderana neUkraine inogumbura - kana zvikaitika, pazvinoitika uye kuti zvinoitika sei. Inogona kuguma ichitungamira kune shanduko yezvematongerwo enyika muRussia. Ini handigone kutaura kuti izvi zvichaitika zvechokwadi, asi zvinogona, kana kurwisa kweUkraine kuchibudirira.
Asi chakakosha ndechekuti hapana kudzokera kune iyo mamiriro ante. Ukraine ichaita shanduko huru. Uye Russia ichaita shanduko dzakadzama. SemuBelarusian comrade achangobva kutaura kwandiri, isu - zvichireva maRussia, maBelarusian, isu tose takambove veSoviet Union uye vekare veRussia vanotonga - tine tsika yakanaka: Pese patinorasikirwa nehondo, isu tinogona kutanga shanduko huru kana mabhindauko.
ZNetwork inopihwa mari chete kuburikidza nerupo rwevaverengi vayo.
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