WASHINGTON, Jan 12 (IPS) โ Kulankhula kwa Purezidenti George W. Bush ku Iraq Lachitatu usiku kunali kochepa ponena za Iraq kusiyana ndi woyandikana nawo kummawa, Iran. Panali zatsopano pang'ono pamalingaliro a US ku Iraq, koma ku Iran, Purezidenti adalongosola dongosolo lomwe likuwoneka kuti likufuna kuyambitsa Iran kunkhondo ndi US.
Ngakhale kuti Washington ikuganiza ngati pulezidenti angavomereze kapena kukana malingaliro a Iraq Study Group, ochepa adaneneratu kuti adzachita zosiyana ndi zomwe James Baker ndi Lee Hamilton analangiza. M'malo mochotsa asitikali ku Iraq, Bush adalamula kuti asitikali awonjezereke. M'malo molankhula ndi Iran ndi Syria, Bush adalengeza nkhondo pamayikowa. Ndipo m'malo mokakamiza Israeli kuti athetse mkangano wa Israeli ndi Palestina, olamulira akuyambitsa nkhondo yamagulu ku Gaza popereka zida ndi kuphunzitsa Fatah motsutsana ndi Hamas.
Zomwe zachitika posachedwa komanso zonena zaposachedwa zikuwonetsa kuti olamulira akuyang'ana kwambiri nkhondo ndi Iran. Lachitatu, Bush adaimba milandu yayikulu kwambiri kwa olamulira ku Tehran, ponena kuti atsogoleri achipembedzo "akupereka chithandizo chakuthupi pakuukira asitikali aku America."
Ngakhale akulonjeza "kusokoneza kuukira kwa asilikali athu" ndi "kufunafuna ndi kuwononga maukonde opereka zida zapamwamba ndi maphunziro kwa adani athu ku Iraq," sananene za kuyenda kwa zida ndi ndalama kwa zigawenga Sunni ndi al Qaeda ku Jordan. ndi Saudi Arabia.
M'malo mwake, adawulula kutumizidwa kwa gulu lina lankhondo ku Persian Gulf ndi Patriot anti-missile defense system ku Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) kuti ateteze ogwirizana a US. Kuthandiza kwa gawoli pothetsa ziwawa ku Iraq sikudziwikabe. Ngakhale zigawenga za Sunni kapena magulu ankhondo a Shia alibe zida zoponya. Ndipo akadatero, palibe chomwe chikuwonetsa kuti angayang'ane mayiko a GCC - Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia ndi United Arab Emirates.
Kutumizidwa kwa mivi ya Patriot kumatha kufotokozedwa, komabe, potengera dongosolo la US lolimbana ndi Iran. Chaka chatha, Tehran adasainira mayiko a GCC m'mawu osamveka bwino kuti abwezera ma sheikhdoms achiarabu ngati US idaukira Iran pogwiritsa ntchito maziko m'maiko a GCC. Pokumbukira kufooka kwa gulu lankhondo laku Iran, chida cha Tehran chingakhale zida zoponya zoponya - chida chomwechi chomwe a Patriots adapangidwa kuti aziteteza. Gawo loyamba lopita kunkhondo ndi Iran lingakhale kupatsa mayiko a GCC chitetezo kuti asabwezere ku Iran.
Mwina chizindikiro chachikulu cha nkhondo yomwe ikubwera ndi Iran ndi kumangidwa kwa Washington posachedwa kwa akazembe aku Iran ku Iraq. Pafupifupi nthawi yakulankhula kwa Purezidenti Bush, Asitikali Apadera a US - mophwanya malamulo azamalamulo pokumbukira kugwidwa kwa akazembe aku US ku Tehran ndi ophunzira aku Iran mu 1979 - adaukira kazembe wa Iran ku Erbil kumpoto kwa Iraq, ndikumanga akazembe asanu. Pambuyo pake tsiku lomwelo, asitikali aku US adatsala pang'ono kulimbana ndi asitikali aku Kurdish peshmerga pomwe akufuna kumanga anthu aku Irani pabwalo la ndege la Arbil.
Izi zidakwiyitsa boma la Iraqi, kuphatikiza zigawo zake zaku Kurdish zomwe mwanjira ina ndizolimbikitsa Washington. "Zomwe zidachitika ... zinali zokwiyitsa kwambiri chifukwa pakhala pali ofesi yolumikizana ndi Iran kwa zaka zambiri ndipo imapereka chithandizo kwa nzika," Nduna Yowona Zakunja ku Iraq Hoshiyar Zebari, yemwenso ndi waku Kurd, adauza wailesi yakanema ya Al-Arabiya.
Boma la Bush lavomereza zigawenga - kuphatikiza kumangidwa kwa akuluakulu angapo aku Iran mu Disembala chaka chatha - chifukwa umboni wasonkhanitsidwa pakuchitapo kanthu kwa Iran pakusokoneza Iraq. Koma ngati cholinga chake ndi kusonkhanitsa anzeru, zingakhale zomveka kuyambitsa kuwukira kwanthawi imodzi kwamaofesi aku Iran m'malo mwa njira yowonjezereka yomwe ikupereka chenjezo kwa aku Iran komanso mwayi wowononga umboni uliwonse womwe angakhale nawo kapena alibe.
Kuwukira kowonjezereka ndi kumangidwa m'malo mwake kungakhale cholinga chopangitsa anthu aku Irani kuti ayankhe, zomwe zingapangitse kuti zinthu zichuluke ndikupatsa olamulira a Bush ndi casus belli yomwe ikufunika kuti apambane thandizo la Congress pankhondo ndi Iran. M'malo mopanga mlandu wankhondo yolimbana ndi Iran pa zida zowononga anthu ambiri - njira yomwe US โโidatsata ndi Iraq zomwe sizingachitike bwino ndi Iran - kutsatizana kwa zomwe zidachitika pakuputa ndi kukulitsa njira zingapangitse kuti ziwoneke ngati. nkhondo inakakamizika ku US
Maseneta otchuka aku Republican ndi Democratic akuwoneka kuti atsatira njira zankhondo za Purezidenti. Lachinayi pamsonkhano wa Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Senator Chuck Hagel waku Nebraska adafananiza ndi njira ya olamulira a Richard Nixon yonamiza anthu aku US ndikukulitsa nkhondo ya Vietnam ku Cambodia. "[W] mukakhazikitsa ndondomeko yomwe pulezidenti akukamba pano," adachenjeza Mlembi wa boma Condoleezza Rice, "ndizoopsa kwambiri."
Senator Joseph Biden waku Delaware adawonjezeranso kuti nkhondo ndi Iran ifunika ulamuliro wa congressional. Komabe, Congress ikuyenera kubweretsa vuto lalikulu ku dongosolo lankhondo la Bush kupitilira kukambirana ndi kusinthanitsa koopsa pakati pa ma Senema okhumudwa ndi akuluakulu oyang'anira chitetezo.
Kusuntha kotsatira kungakhale kwa Iran. Tehran ayenera kuti adanunkhiza msamphawo ndipo akhala chete osayankhula kwakali pano ndikulepheretsa utsogoleri wa Bush ngati chifukwa chokulirakulira. Koma kupitiliza kukwiyitsa ku US kudzera muzowonjezereka za akazembe aku Iran ndi maofesi zitha kubweretsa kuyankha mwadala kapena mwangozi, pambuyo pake kukwera ndi nkhondo zitha kuchitika. Iran nthawi zina yalephera kuwonetsa mwambo wofunikira kuti asayankhe mwaukali.
Ngakhale kuwerengera kwa oyang'anira kungakhale kuti kukakamiza koopsa ku Iran kudzakakamiza Tehran kuti anyengerera, chikhulupiriro ku Iran kuti kupereka zololera kungapangitse kusintha kwa mfundo za US ku Iran kuli pafupi ndi kulibe chifukwa cha kukana kwaposachedwa kwa boma la Bush ku Iran.
Koma Tehran atha kusintha mkhalidwe wa ndale ndikuthawa msampha wankhondo wa Bush poyambiranso zokambirana ndi European Union kuti athane ndi mavuto amderali komanso vuto lanyukiliya. Kuleza mtima ndi chikhulupiriro ku Europe ku Iran kwatha chifukwa cha kulephera kwa Tehran kuyamikira zoyesayesa za Javier Solana, woimira wamkulu wa European Union's Common Foreign and Security Policy, kuti akambirane mgwirizano wokhudza kuyimitsidwa kwachuma komaliza.
Komabe, EU ikumvetsetsa kuti mafunde ankhondo aku Middle East adzafika ku Europe posachedwa kwambiri kuposa momwe amafikira magombe a US. Kaya Europe idzayimilira pazotsatira zake ndi chitetezo komanso motsutsana ndi mapulani ankhondo a Bush, komabe, sizikuwoneka. Apa, zomwe Tehran amapereka mwina sizosafunikira.
*Dr. Trita Parsi ndi mlembi wa "Treacherous Triangle - The Secret Dealings of Israel, Iran and the United States" (Yale University Press, 2007).
ZNetwork imalandira ndalama kudzera mu kuwolowa manja kwa owerenga ake.
Ndalama