China chake chodabwitsa chachitika ku Washington. Purezidenti Donald Trump wanena momveka bwino, mopanda kukayikira komanso osayesa kubisa kuti abwerere, adzanena kuti Tehran akubera ndalama zaukeni pofika Okutobala - zowonongedwa. Mwachidule, kukonzekera kuli mkati. Trump akana kuvomereza kuti Iran ikutsatira ndipo potero akhazikitsa gawo loti asamenye nkhondo. Alangizi ake akhala okoma mtima kwambiri pofotokozera momwe adzachitire izi. Kaลตirikaลตiri samakhala ndi malingaliro oyipa oti awononge mgwirizano wamanja ndikuwongolera njira yankhondo kuti idalembedwa poyera kwambiri.
Kufotokozedwa kwatsatanetsatane kwa malingaliro a Trump ofuna kuwononga mgwirizano wa nyukiliya adayamba masabata awiri apitawa pomwe amakana kutsimikiza kuti Iran ikutsatira. Onse anzeru aku US komanso International Atomic Energy Agency adatsimikizira kusewera koyenera kwa Tehran. Koma a Trump adaponya phokoso mu Oval Office ndikudandaula gulu lake lachitetezo chifukwa chosapeza njira yoti Iran idabera. Malinga ndi Malonda Achilendo, akuluakulu omwe anali m'chipindacho - Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis, ndi Advisor National Security Advocate HR McMaster - adatontholetsa Trump pokhapokha pokhapokha atapeza njira yoti Purezidenti adzafufuze. pofika mu Okutobala.
Asanawululidwe kwa chivomerezo cha a Trump chaku Iran, ochita kafukufuku ndi akatswiri ambiri amakhulupirira kuti zonena za Trump pa Iran ndizongolankhula chabe. Khungwa lake linali loipa kuposa kuluma kwake, monga momwe adatsimikizira kuti Iran iyenera kutsatira mu Epulo komanso m'mene amakonzanso zigamulo za Meyi. Mtunda pakati pa njira zake zachikhalidwe ndi zenizeni zimawonekera. Mwachidziwitso, akuluakulu a a Trump adalongosola Iran ngati muzu wa mavuto onse ku Middle East komanso monga wamkulu kwambiri wopereka chithandizo ku boma. A Trump adanenanso kuti akhoza kusiya mgwirizanowu.
Pochita izi, Purezidenti Trump adapitilizabe kulipira ndipo anavomereza kuti Iran ikutsatira mgwirizanowu. Zotsatira zake, ambiri adaganiza kuti a Trump apitiliza kukwaniritsa zoyenera kuchita pamsonkhanowo pomwe akumangomamatira pazokakamira zake kuti asangalatse otsutsa a mgwirizano wa nyukiliya komanso othandizira a Trump ku Saudi Arabia ndi Israel.
Koma tsopano, kuwunika kukusintha. Chiwopsezo choopsa cha nkhanza za a Trump pa mgwirizano wamu Iran komanso kuopsa kwa upangiri wa "akulu m'chipindacho" - adatinso sabata ino pomwe zolinga za zomwe nyenyezi za TV zidayamba kudutsa.
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Pozindikira kuti kukana kutsimikizira Iran kudzasiyanitsa United States, alangizi a Trump adamupatsanso pulani ina. Gwiritsani ntchito njira zowunikira malo a zida za nyukiliya, iwo akuti, akufuna kuti athe kulowa magulu onse ankhondo ku Iran. Iran ikangogwa - yomwe ingagwire ntchito ngati galimotolo likuyenera kugwiritsidwa ntchito ngati umboni wowoneka ulipo kuti malowa akugwiritsidwa ntchito pazinthu zopanda ntchito za nyukiliya-a Trump anganene kuti Iran ikuphwanya, ikuwonjezera mgwirizano wa zida za nyukiliya pomwe ikupatsa mlandu Tehran.
Chifukwa chake, upangiri wa akuluakulu omwe anali m'chipindacho - omwe tikuyenera kuletsa Lipenga - sichinali choti asunge mgwirizano wopambana womwe watenga bomba la Iran komanso nkhondo ndi Iran pathebulo. M'malo mwake, adalimbikitsa kupha m'njira yomwe ingabise zoyipa za Trump ndikusinthira mtengo ku Iran.
Malinga ndi The New York Times, maziko a njira imeneyi akhazikitsidwa kale. Wapampando wa Senate Foreign Relations Bob Corker (R-TN) amatcha njira iyi "kukakamiza kwakukulu" kwa mgwirizano. "Ngati satilola kulowa," adatero Corker The Washington Post, "Boom." Ndipo adanenanso kuti: "Mukufuna kufalitsa mgwirizano uno kukhale pa Iran. Simukufuna kuti ukhale ku US, chifukwa tikufuna ogwirizana nawo akhale nafe. โ
Uwu ndi mtanda, kukonzanso kwamaukadaulo omwe adabweretsa nkhondo yaku Iraq. Zilibe kanthu kuti Iran ichita chiyani kapena siyichita. Zikadakhala za Trump, sakanavomera konse kuti Iran ikutsatira koyamba. Adavomera mochuluka kwa Wall Street Journal. "Ndikadakhala kuti zikadakhala za ine, ndikadakhala ndi [Iran] osagwirizana masiku a 180 kale."
Powonetsa kuti anali ndi chidaliro chonse cha "kukhazikitsa bwino ntchito", a Trump anawonjezera kuti "Ndikuganiza kuti sangakhale osagwirizana [mu Okutobala]." Pochita izi, adatsimikiziranso kukayikira kuti izi zikufuna kudziwa ngati Iran ikugwirizana kapena ayi. Akuluakulu adadzipereka kupeza njira yoti alande Iran idaphwanya pangano, ngakhale zitakhala bwanji, monga momwe George W. Bush adachitira ndi Iraq.
Zotheka potumiza Moto
Koma chidaliro cha Trump chikhoza kusokonekera molakwika pamitundu iwiri. Choyamba, kugwiritsa ntchito molakwika njira zoyendetsera panganolo kumatha kukhala kovuta kuposa momwe a Trump adawonetsera kuti akhulupirire. Kuyendera ndiye chimwala cha mgwirizano, ndipo kuthekera kwa Iran kuti kubera pa mgwirizano sikuchitika pakadali pomwe umphumphu ndi kuyeserera kwa kuyesereraku kulibe ntchito. Koma ngati Trump ayamba kugwiritsa ntchito molakwika makina kuti apange mkangano, adzathetsa maboma oyang'anira ndikuwonjezera luso la iwo aku Iran omwe angakonde kutsata pulogalamu ya nyukiliya. Makamaka chifukwa chodzipereka ku Europe ndi ena kuti asachulukane, atha kukana kuyesayesa kwa Trump kuti ayang'ane ndikuwunika.
Chachiwiri, poulula dzanja lake, a Trump awonetsa chibwereza chake kuti onse awone. Izi zikuphatikiza anthu aku America, omwe malingaliro awo odana ndi nkhondo amakhalabe olimba ndipo ndi chifukwa chachikulu chomwe amathandizira mgwirizano wa zida za nyukiliya.
Anthu aku America amadziwa bwino playbook ya Iraq. Otsatira a Trump amakhalabe okwiya ndi nkhondo yoopsa ndi Iraq. Amadziwa momwe adasewerera. Ndizovuta kulingalira chifukwa chomwe angalolere kuseweredwanso ndi purezidenti yemwe wasiya kukayikira pang'ono pazolinga zake zabodza.
Trita Parsi ndi Purezidenti wa National Iranian American Council ndi wolemba Kutaya Mdani - Obama, Iran ndi Kupambana kwa Diplomacy.
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