Noma yimuphi umzamo wokuhlinzeka nge-akhawunti ehambisanayo yezingxabano zezombusazwe ezikhungethe i-Yemen nakanjani izohluleka. Izwe liyisihluthulelo sokungqubuzana okweqa izigaba ezijwayelekile zokuhlaziya okunengqondo. Uma ubheka ngale kwenkungu yezombusazwe egubuzele ukungqubuzana, izimo ezidabukisayo zokuhlupheka okukhulu ezibekwe emphakathini zivela ngokucacile.
Kudala ngaphambi kokugqashuka kwempi yombango, iYemen yaziwa njengezwe elimpofu kakhulu esifundeni, elibhekene nokushoda kokudla namanzi. I-UN ilinganisela ukuthi amaphesenti angama-80 abantu abadinga usizo oluphuthumayo, amaphesenti angama-40 aphila ngemali engaphansi kwama-$2 ngosuku. Ngaphezu kwalokho, kunezingozi ezinkulu zendlala enkulu kanye nokuqubuka kwezifo eziwubhubhane.
Ngokumelene nalesi sizinda, uMkhandlu Wezokuphepha we-UN ubonakala usekela ngendlela eshaqisayo ukungenelela okukhulu kwezempi yaseSaudi ngokuhlaselwa komoya okuqhubekayo okwaqala ngoNdasa wezi-2015, kwabhebhethekisa kakhulu isimo ngokuvuma ngazwi linye iSinqumo esingu-2216 sokulwa namaHouthi esihlangothini olulodwa. Lokhu kusetshenziswa kwamandla eSaudi iphambene nomthetho wamazwe ngamazwe, iphula umgomo oyinhloko we-UN Charter, futhi ikhulisa ukuphazamiseka okunobudlova komphakathi wase-Yemeni.
Impumelelo yodlame lwaseHouthi olusuka enyakatho olwasusa ubuholi baseYemeni emandleni, yathatha inhloko-dolobha i-Sanaa, yaphathwa kabi nguMkhandlu Wezokuphepha njengokuvukela umbuso kwamasosha okwakuthethelela ukungenelela komfelandawonye oholwa yiSaudi. Kuyamangaza ukukhumbula ukuthi ukuketulwa kwezempi okungafihlekile kwe-2013 eGibhithe, nokuphindiselela okunegazi eliningi kubabusi abakhethiwe abaxoshwa, akuzange kuvuse ukukhononda kokubhikisha emahholo e-UN. Kanjalo ne-geopolitics eMpumalanga Ephakathi.
Ukulandisa okulula
Okwenza kube nzima nakakhulu ukwenza umqondo wentuthuko e-Yemen ukuthambekela kwe-geopolitical ukunciphisa umlando wezwe oyinkimbinkimbi ngendlela emangalisayo kanye nokusebenzisana kwamabutho aphikisanayo endabeni elula yokuncintisana kwamaSunni ngokumelene namaShia ekulawuleni izwe.
I-prism enjalo yokuhumusha, ngaphezu kwakho konke, ivumela iSaudi Arabia ukuthi iveze umbango oseYemen njengenye yaseshashalazini yempi ye-proxy yesifunda ehlanganisa iSaudi Arabia kanye nabalingani bayo baseGulf ngokumelene ne-Iran, okuyindlela eqinisekisiwe yokuvikela i-US kanye ne-Israel. Umqondo ofanayo uwusebenzele kahle umbuso (kanye nomhlaba kabi) ekuchazeni ukuthi kungani usekela amabutho e-anti-Assad eSiriya eminyakeni embalwa edlule. Uma sicatshangelwa ngendlela eqondile, siqala ukuqonda ukuthi le optic yehlelo ifihla okungaphezu kwalokho ekuvezayo.
Ngokwesibonelo, lapho kufika eGibhithe, isifanekiso sehlelo salahlwa, futhi amaSaudis asebenzisa ngokushesha umsipha wawo wezezimali ukuze asize ukuketulwa kwe-anti-Muslim Brotherhood ngo-2012 okuholwa nguGeneral Sisi ukuhlanganisa ukulawula kwayo ezweni. Ngisho nalapho u-Israyeli ehlasela iGaza ngonyaka odlule, efuna ukucekela phansi iHamas, inguqulo yeSunni Islamic ye-Brotherhood, iSaudi Arabia ayizange ifihle iqiniso elimangalisayo lokuthi yanikeza iTel Aviv ukukhanya okuluhlaza.
Okuvelayo-ke akusiyo ipolitiki yesifunda esekelwe ezintweni eziza kuqala ngamahlelo, kodwa kunalokho kuwukugxila kakhulu ekuzinzeni kombuso embusweni waseSaudi, nokukhathazeka okuvela noma nini lapho kuvela ukuthambekela kwezombusazwe esifundeni esiphunyuka ekulawuleni, futhi kubhekwa njengokusongelayo.
Abantu baseYemen bakhokha inani elikhulu lalolu hlobo lwepolitiki yezokuphepha ye-Saudi paranoid. Nokho ingxenye enkulu yomhlaba ilele, ingathathi inkathazo yokubuka ngezansi kwale ndaba yekhava yehlelo.
I-akhawunti encane kuphela ethathwa yokuthi izinsongo zangempela zokuhleleka kwesifunda e-Yemen aziveli ekugcizeleleni okunengqondo kwamaHouthi ezinhlelweni zezombangazwe zokwabelana ngamandla, kodwa ikakhulukazi zibangelwa ukuba khona kwe-Al Qaeda yase-Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) nokunye. muva nje, i-ISIS ebihloselwe ama-drones aseMelika njengengxenye yempi yamaphekula kusukela ngo-2007.
Ngakho-ke ngenkathi iNtshonalanga isekela impi yaseSaudi ngokumelene namaShia Houthis, ngesikhathi esifanayo yenza konke okusemandleni awo ukwenza buthaka ukuphikiswa kwawo okwesabekayo, futhi kule nqubo iphinde ihlukanise izakhamuzi zaseYemeni ngamasu ayo ezempi, aqoqa abashisekeli abaningi abazibophezele ekulweni. ngokumelene nokungenelela kwangaphandle.
Uma lokhu bekungenele ukwenza i-Yemeni crystal ball opaque, kukhona ukuqondana kwangaphakathi kwamandla. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, umbuso owalandela ngo-2012 wombuso wobushiqela okhohlakele ka-Ali Abdullah Saleh oholwa yisekela lakhe langaphambili elikhohlakele ngokulinganayo, u-Abd Rabbuh Mansour Hadi, manje osekubonakala "ebusa" ekudingisweni.
Ngasohlangothini olumelene nombuso, ngaphezu kwamaHouthis, kukhona amabutho amakhulu ezempi namaphoyisa ngaphansi kwegunya likaSaleh abaphikisana nokungenelela kweSaudi futhi baye basiza ukuguqula impi phansi ngokumelene nohulumeni oholwa nguHadi. Ngaphandle kwaleli qiniso elibi enkundleni yempi, inxusa laseSaudi e-US, u-Adel al-Jubeir, ucashunwe ethi: "Sizokwenza noma yini edingekayo ukuze sivikele uhulumeni osemthethweni waseYemen ekuweni." Ngokudabukisayo, lokho okubonakala kusho ukuthi lokhu kuwukwehlisa izwe libe yizinxushunxushu eziletha indlala nezifo kubantu, futhi ngokunokwenzeka likhuphuke esikhathini esizayo sokukhungatheka ngokuqalisa ukuhlasela okukhulu komhlabathi.
Yini okufanele yenziwe?
Kunzima ukwazi ukuthi yini engaletha uhlobo oluthile lokuthula eYemen. Esikwaziyo ukuthi kokubili ukungenelela kwe-optic yamahlelo kanye ne-Saudi kuyizinketho zokuphela. Ukuqala kwendlela eyakhayo wukubheka izimbangela. Eziningana ezidinga ukucatshangelwa. Kunokuhlangenwe nakho okude kokuhlukana phakathi kwenyakatho neningizimu, futhi lokhu kusho ukuthi noma yimuphi uhulumeni wobumbano kulo lonke elaseYemen angasekelwa kuphela umashiqela ofakwe ngesandla sensimbi njengoSaleh noma ngohlelo lwangempela lokwabelana kwamandla. Ngale kwalokhu, izwe linezibazi zokubusa kwe-Ottoman okuxubene nokuba khona kweBrithani e-Aden nasezindaweni ezizungezile, okubalulekile ezintweni eziza kuqala zamakholoni zokulawula i-Suez kanye nezindlela zohwebo eziya eMpumalanga.
Ukwengeza, i-Yemen isalokhu iyinhlanganisela yezizwe ezisalawula ukwethembeka okukhulu kwabantu. Ukuphikelela kwanamuhla kweYurophu ezizweni ezizimele eMpumalanga Ephakathi akuzange kuphumelele ukunqoba ubukhulu bezizwe zezizwe zaseYemeni. Noma yikuphi okungaba khona uzinzo kwezombusazwe kudinga ukuxhaswa kwezizwe zase-Yemen njengoba kwenza iSaudi Arabia ngesikhathi sobushiqela buka-Saleh (1990-2012) noma ukudala i-quilt enemibala eminingi yepolitiki yezizwe ezizimele. Uma igeography kanye nokucwasana ngokobuhlanga kubhekwa ukusabela ekwehlukaneni kweShia-Sunni noma umbango weRiyadh-Tehran njengencazelo yezwe laseYemen elikhungethwe izingxabano kuyiphupho elinonya neliyize.
Yini okufanele yenziwe, uma kubhekwa lesi simo? Isihluthulelo esingaba khona sokufinyelela uhlobo oluthile lokuthula eYemen siphethwe abenzi benqubomgomo eWashington. Kodwa-ke inqobo nje uma uhulumeni wase-US elokhu ebhekile kubabusi ebukhosini baseSaudi kanye nakubashisekeli abaqhuba u-Israyeli, akusebenziseki. Lokhu kwenza izinxushunxushu zezombangazwe eMpumalanga Ephakathi zibambelele endleleni ebulalayo ehamba ngokushesha. Ukwehla kanjani, lowo ngumbuzo.
Kunezinyathelo ezimbili ezisobala, ezingezinhle, kodwa ezinomgomo onesizotha wesinyathelo sokuqala ekudaleni uhlelo olusha lwezombangazwe: okokuqala, xoxisana ngokuyeka ukulwa okuhlanganisa ukuphela kokungenelela kweSaudi; okwesibili, sungula imvuselelo ethembeke kakhudlwana yeNgqungquthela Kazwelonke Yezingxoxo ukuthi eminyakeni emibili edlule yenza umzamo ohlulekile e-Sanaa wokuthola uhlelo lokwabelana ngamandla. Okudingekayo ukusungula inguquko yezombangazwe ezwela kokubili ukuhlukana kweNyakatho neNingizimu namandla ezizwe zase-Yemeni kuhambisana nosizo olukhulu lwezomnotho oluvela ngaphandle kanye nokudala ukuba khona kwe-UN yokugcina ukuthula okujutshwe ukuqaliswa. Akukho okuncane okunethuba lokusebenza.
Indlela enjalo enengqondo okwamanje ivinjiwe, ikakhulukazi impi eshubile yobuholi obunolaka baseSaudi beNkosi uSalman bin Abdul Aziz Al-Saud, nendodana yakhe, uPrince Mohammed bin Salman, uNobhala Wezokuvikela, osobala ukuthi ungumpetha wokungenelela kwezempi.
I-United States, nobudlelwano bayo obukhethekile no-Israyeli kanye nobudlelwano bayo obuqinile neSaudi Arabia, ibonakala igwinya ukungqubuzana okuphakathi phakathi kokumelana nezitha zayo zangempela, i-AQAP ne-ISIS, kanye nozakwabo abangaqondile, amaHouthi.
Esikhundleni sokuphatha isitha sesitha sabo njengomngane, uWashington uhlehlisa lesi saga. Le Gordian Knot iklinya abantu baseYemen. Ukuyinqamula kuzodinga ukwehlukana okukhulu nenqubomgomo yamanje. Indlela eya phambili iyabonakala, kodwa indlela yokufika lapho ayikho, futhi okwamanje imizimba iyanqwabelana.
URichard Falk ungumfundi wezomthetho wamazwe omhlaba kanye nobudlelwano bamazwe omhlaba owafundisa eNyuvesi yasePrinceton iminyaka engama-40. Ngo-2008 waphinde waqokwa yi-UN ukuthi asebenze ihlandla leminyaka eyisithupha njengoMmeli Okhethekile wamalungelo abantu basePalestine.
I-ZNetwork ixhaswa kuphela ngokuphana kwabafundi bayo.
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