[Inothi Lokuqala: Okuthunyelwe okungezansi kuwumbhalo oshintshiwe wengxoxo yangomhla zi-2 ku-Agasti 2023 yintatheli yase-Iran, u-Javad Heiran-Nia. Umbhalo oqukethe izimpendulo zami ushicilelwe kumagazini, Tahrir Bazaar [isixhumanisi: https://www.tahlilbazaar.com/news/235594/Professor-Falk-China-s-influence-in-the-Persian-Gulf-has-worried>] Kugxilwe engxoxweni yesifunda ehlelelwe uSepthemba 2023 phakathi kwe-Iran ne-Iraq kanye namalungu ayisithupha eGulf Cooperation Council (GCC), eyasungulwa ngo-1981. buyisela ukungezwani ngokuzinza eMpumalanga Ephakathi, futhi ngesikhathi sokuthola inkululeko yezombusazwe ku-US/Israel hegemony. Le ntuthuko iphinde ikhombise ukwanda kokubandakanyeka kweChina esifundeni, okubonakala kakhulu ekukhuthazeni ubudlelwano obujwayelekile phakathi kwe-Iran neSaudi Arabia futhi ngokwakha indawo yezepolitiki ukunikeza iSaudi Arabia ne-OPEC ukuzethemba okudingekayo ukuze kumiswe ukukhiqizwa kukawoyela kanye nentengo. isisekelo sezithakazelo zezwe esikhundleni sokusabela ezingcindezini zomhlaba wonke ezenziwa amazwe athumela uwoyela kwamanye amazwe.]
1. Kuhlelelwe ukuba nomhlangano kulo Septhemba ngohlelo lukaNobhala Jikelele weNhlangano Yezizwe ngokubambisana nongqongqoshe bezangaphandle bamazwe ayisishiyagalombili ase-Iran kanye ne-Iraq kanye namalungu e-GCC. Isinyathelo sikaNobhala Jikelele sezingxoxo zesifunda sifakiwe ku-UN Security Council Resolution 598, eyaholela ekupheleni kwempi yase-Iran-Iraq. Kuthini ukuhlola kwakho ngalo mhlangano?
Kuyaphawuleka ukuthi i-SC Res. 598 eyamukelwa ngo-1987 ayikaqaliswa eminyakeni engaphezu kwengama-35 kamuva. Uma kubhekwa izingxabano ezingenelelayo, ikakhulukazi iMpi YaseGulf ngo-1991 kanye ne-US/UK ngo-2003 ihlasela i-Iraq, eyenziwa ngaphandle kokugunyazwa yi-UN futhi ngokwephulwa kwe-UN Charter lokhu kubambezeleka isikhathi eside akumangalisi. Ukwephulwa kuhlanganisa ukunxeshezelwa ekujezisweni kwamazwe ngamazwe, amandla angavikeli, amaqhinga 'okwethuka kanye nokwesaba'. ukungenelela okushintsha umbuso, ukuhlala isikhathi eside, ukwenqatshwa kwamalungelo obukhosi, ukwehluleka ukwakhiwa kombuso, kuyaphawuleka ukuthi lesi sinqumo esidala sokuxazululwa kwengxabano nokuvinjelwa kwempi siyavuselelwa ngalo moya omusha ongathi sĂna obonakala ungowokufuna uzinzo. Kuleli qophelo kunzima ukulindela ukuthi yini ezoba umphumela womhlangano wangoSepthemba ngenxa yezizathu ezahlukahlukene zababambe iqhaza ngqo kanye nezimo zengqondo zabalingisi abaphambili bamazwe aphesheya njenge-US neChina bekungakadalulwa. Ukuzimisela kwamazwe ayisishiyagalombili abambe iqhaza ekuvumeni ukubamba inkhulumomphendvulwano yesifunda yokuhlola ehlanganisa i-Iran ne-Iraq ngokwako kuyintuthuko ekhuthazayo, okusikisela ukuthi i-Israel, kanye ne-United States' inomphumela omncane wesifunda ngo-2023 kunangaphambili ngenxa yezizathu eziningana ezihlobene.
Kuyafaneleka ukuphawulwa ukuthi inkhulumomphendvulwano yesifunda ezayo ihlelwe ngendlela ezoletha i-Iran ne-Iraq engxoxweni namazwe e-Gulf esikhundleni se-Arab Middle East yonke noma isifunda sisonke. I-Syria, i-Egypt, iLebanon, i-Palestine, i-Yemen ayifakiwe (kanye ne-Israel), futhi kungenzeka ukuthi ayizange imenywe. Lolu hlaka lokusebenzelana noxhaso lwalo lwesikhashana lungabuye luqondwe njengoluthatha indawo yabalingisi besifunda nabangaphansi kwe-US kanye neShayina njengendlela ekhethwayo yokufeza ukuthula 'okuphelele, okunobulungiswa, okuhloniphekile, nokuhlala isikhathi eside' okwashiwo kudala kulokhu. Uhlelo loMkhandlu Wezokuphepha obeluyimpendulo yokuqala empini edala umonakalo phakathi kwe-Iraq ne-Iran. Ukuthi yini edale ubudlelwano obunokuthula obunjalo kulesi sikhathi samanje akukakadalulwa esidlangalaleni okwamanje. Kuzocaca ngokuhamba kwengqungquthela ngoSepthemba inqobo nje uma imibhalo yemihlangano ikhishwa noma okungenani. kukhishwa isiMemezelo sokuphetha, ongqongqoshe bezangaphandle abahlangene bahlangana nabezindaba ngaphambi nangemuva komcimbi, futhi bavumelana kakhulu ngokuthi bazophinde bahlangane noma bahlale behlangana ngezikhathi ezithile.
Iqiniso lokuthi umhlangano wongqongqoshe bamazwe angaphandle, futhi hhayi abameleli bakazwelonke bezinga eliphansi noma izinhloko zezwe eziphakeme, liphakamisa ukuzibophezela okuqinile kumcimbi kohulumeni ababambe iqhaza. Ngesikhathi esifanayo, akukho okulindelekile ukuthi lo mcimbi owodwa wenkhulumomphendvulwano, kungakhathaliseki ukuthi umhlangano uphumelele kangakanani futhi ujabule kangakanani Isimemezelo, wona ngokwawo uzoveza imiphumela esheshayo noma emangalisayo. Kucatshangwa kangcono njengesiqalo esithembisayo senqubo yokubuyisana nokuhlalisana osekudlule isikhathi eside.
I-Iran izozuza okuningi kulo mcimbi, kanye nenqubo elandelayo, njengoba kuyisinyathelo esibheke ekubuyiselweni kwezepolitiki nezomnotho ezijwayelekile zesifunda futhi kude nokuqhubeka nokuhlukaniswa. ISaudi Arabia ingase futhi ithole ukwethenjwa okwengeziwe ngemizamo yayo yakamuva yokuphishekela i-diplomacy yesifunda ezimele, ngezinye izikhathi eye yaphambana ngokuqondile nezinqubomgomo ezikhethwa yi-US Noma mhlawumbe lo mcimbi uthandwa ngoba ulinganisa futhi uphazamisa umnyakazo omude we-Riyadh wamahemuhemu ukujwayela kobudlelwane bayo no-Israyeli. Kuleli qophelo, ukuqagela okunjalo akufanele kuthathwe ngokungathi sĂna kakhulu. Iqiniso lokuthi le ngqungquthela iyenzeka nhlobo iyimpumelelo enethemba uma kubhekwa isimo sokungqubuzana samashumi eminyaka amuva nje e-Middle East, ikakhulukazi ekusebenzelaneni ne-Iran. Okungaziwa okukhulu kuhilela izinga abalingisi abangabambiqhaza besifunda nabangaphandle kwesifunda abazofaka ngalo izinyathelo ezithikamezayo ngemuva kwesigcawu.
2. Ngemuva kokuthuthukiswa kobudlelwano phakathi kwe-Iran neSaudi Arabia, ukuthuthukiswa kobudlelwano phakathi kwe-Iran namanye amazwe ase-Arab kungabonakala. Ngabe ukwakha indlela yezingxoxo zesifunda kungaba yimpumelelo kangakanani esimweni esinjalo?
Le ngqungquthela exhaswe yi-UN ibonakala ihambisana nokuxoxisana kwakamuva kwezizwe ngezizwe phakathi kohulumeni okwaqala ukulungisa ubudlelwano be-Iran nezwe lama-Arab ngemuva kwamashumi eminyaka engxabano kanye nokuxoxisana okunobutha njengaseMpini yaseSyria eyaqala ngo-2011. okuhlobene nokwehla kwezifiso ze-US hegemonic, amakhono, kanye nezinto ezibalulekile ezibalulekile esifundeni, kanye nokugxila kancane kancane kwezindawo ekutholeni uzinzo. Okunye okucatshangelwayo ukuxhumana phakathi kokufuna kuka-Israel isimo esijwayelekile sokusebenzisana neSaudi Arabia namanye amazwe ase-Arab, kanye nalokhu kuqhubekela phambili kwe-Iran/Iraq/Gulf ekufezeni ubudlelwano njengesisekelo sokuzuza ukubumbana kwangaphakathi nokuzinza.
Okunye okubalulekile wukukhuphuka kwezinye izinkathazo zesifunda ngasohlangothini lwe-US kanye nezinye, okuhlanganisa nezinselelo ezingezona ezombangazwe ngaphakathi kwesifunda ezikhuthaza ukubuyisela ubudlelwano obungqubuzanayo nazo. abasebenzisanayo ngokubalulekile. Izingcindezi ezinzima sezivele zikhona kulo lonke elasePhakathi ngenxa yokufudumala kwembulunga yonke, okulethe ukushisa okurekhodiwe okuphazamisa impilo futhi kwasongela ukuphila kwesikhathi esizayo endaweni. Ubuciko bombuso obunomthwalo wemfanelo wabalingisi besifunda budinga kunanini ngaphambili ukuthi bugxilise amakhono abo okuxazulula izinkinga kulezi zinsongo ezintsha zenhlalakahle ezivela ngenxa yokungazinzi okukhulayo phakathi kokwenza umnotho ube wesimanje nendawo yokuhlala yemvelo. Ngalo mqondo, impi kanye nempi kuba yiziphazamiso ezibizayo ezivela emizamweni yokubambezeleka okude kakhulu yokufeza ukuphepha kwezwe nelomuntu uma kubhekwa izimo zemvelo nezombusazwe ezishintshe kakhulu emhlabeni wamanje.
3. Ngemva kokuncipha kokuba khona kweMelika esifundeni, idiplomacy esifundeni mayelana nezindaba ezibalulekile zokuphepha zamazwe akulesi sifunda ziye zanda. Ingabe uhlola le nqubo njengeqhinga noma isu?
Kimina kubonakala sengathi ukuqapha kufanele mayelana nezindima zesifunda zamanje nezesikhathi esizayo zabalingisi abakhulu abangewona abaseMpumalanga Ephakathi. Akukhona nje kuphela ukuthi ukungezwani kwezombusazwe kuhlolwa kabusha ngaphansi kwezimo zamanje, kodwa nethemba lokuzuza ukuphilisana ngokuthula phakathi kwamakhosi aseGulf kanye ne-Islamic Republic of Iran, naphezu kokuqhubeka kwawo nokubambelela emasikweni aphikisayo emfundiso yenkolo yamaSulumane kanye nokwenza. Okunye ukungaqiniseki okukhathazayo ukuthi ngabe ukukhathazeka kwakamuva kweMelika kwenye indawo emhlabeni, ikakhulukazi i-Ukraine neTaiwan, kunikeze abaholi baseSaudi ukuzethemba okudingekayo ukuze baqhubeke nokuxhumana ne-Iran nabanye abangaphesheya kwemingcele yayo bebeka phambili izintshisekelo zayo zezwe. Okunye okubalulekile ukuthi ingabe ukuhlupheka isikhathi eside ngenxa yobutha besifunda kanye nombuso wonswinyo lwamazwe ngamazwe kukhuphule intshisekelo ye-Iran ezinzuzweni ezingaba khona zezingxoxo, ikakhulukazi uma ivunyelwa ukuthi ibe isitebhisi esiholela ekubuyisaneni nasebudlelwaneni obusekelwe ezithakazelweni ezifanayo kanye nezinzuzo ezifanayo. Kokubili i-Iran kanye ne-Saudi Arabia kungenzeka ukuthi bathintwe kabi ukubandakanyeka kwabo okuphikisayo ezinxushunxushwini zezombusazwe e-Yemen, okungenzeka ukuthi ngokwengxenye kube nomthelela ekuzimiseleni kwabo ngokuhlanganyela esikhundleni sokuzinza ezingxabanweni njengesisekelo sokuvikeleka kwabo kwezwe kwakusasa.
4. Ukubamba iqhaza kweShayina esifundeni - nakuba ingenayo ingxenye ebanzi yezempi nezokuphepha okwamanje - kuzoba namuphi umphumela ezinkambisweni zesifunda?
Ukukhula kobushoshovu baseShayina kuphambene nokuxoxisana kwezempi okwenziwa ngaphambilini yi-United States esifundeni ngokuvamile ngokukhululekile ekusekeleni imigomo yaseSaudi ne-Israel, njengaseYemen noma mayelana nomzabalazo wasePalestina wamalungelo ayisisekelo. Ngikholwa ukuthi umzamo okhaliphile waseShayina wokuzuza ingxoxo phakathi kwe-Riyadh ne-Tehran udale ukudideka e-Washington. Ingabe i-US kufanele izame ukubuyisela izifiso zayo ze-hegemonic ngokusebenzisa i-diplomacy ephoqelela noma kufanele iphishekele inguqulo yayo yokukhulumisana okujwayelekile nokuzinza esifundeni? I-China ikhuthazwa kangakanani ukukhathazeka kwayo okuhlobene nokuvikeleka kwamandla kanye neziqinisekiso zokufinyelela kuwoyela waseGulf? Futhi iShayina iwuthumela ngezinga elingakanani uHulumeni wase-US umlayezo womphumela uma igxambukela ezindabeni zase-Indo-Pacific zaseChina, lapho-ke iChina izobuyisela ngokungena ezindaweni lapho kube khona ubukhona be-US obuqinile.
Njengoba ngibheka iMpi Yase-Ukraine njengengxenye emayelana nokuvumelana kwezwe ngemuva kokuphela kweMpi Yomshoshaphansi ekuqaleni kwawo-1990, okuningi kuzoncika ekutheni ukuphepha komhlaba wonke kuyasigcina yini isimo saso esisodwa esavela ngemuva kokuqothuka kweSoviet ngo-1992 noma sibuyela ohlotsheni oluthile olusha i-bipolarity (mhlawumbe i-China/Russia v. NATO/India) noma ukushintshela ezinhlotsheni ze-multipolarity ezifuna ukuthembela kakhulu ekuxazululeni izinkinga zomhlaba wonke ngokubambisana ngenxa yezwe, ngisho nangaphezulu, ukuphepha kwabantu.
5. Kungasetshenziswa ngezinga elingakanani ubudlelwano bezentengiselwano kanye nokuncikana kwezomnotho ezingxoxweni zesifunda?
Ngikholwa ukuthi ubudlelwano bezentengiselwano obuqinile ngaphansi kwezimo eziningi bukhiqiza izinhlobo ezinhle zokuncikana kwezomnotho, okubuye kuqinise izinqubo zezingxoxo zokuxazulula izingxabano. Umfutho onjalo wakha futhi izisekelo zezombusazwe zokwanda kwezohwebo, ukutshalwa kwezimali, ezokuvakasha, ukushintshana ngamasiko ngendlela efanayo, okuletha izinzuzo ezifanayo. Futhi nokho izilinganiso zezomnotho ezinjalo azinakucatshangwa ukuthi zinemiphumela emihle. Kuncike ekubonweni kokulinganisa kwezithakazelo eziyinkimbinkimbi kanye nemibono evame ukuphikisana, kanye nokuba khona noma ukungabikho kwezingcindezi zezwe. Kunzima ukwenza okuvamile mayelana nodaba olunjalo, oluhlale luncike ezicini zengqikithi, ezihlala zishintshashintsha.
Ngenxa yezizathu ezisikiselwe ngaphambili, intuthuko yesifunda neyembulunga yonke njengamanje isekela ukuzinza kwezokuxhumana kanye nokwandiswa kobudlelwane bezomnotho obuzuzisanayo phakathi kwamazwe achithe ingxenye yekhulu leminyaka edlule noma ngaphezulu ezingxabanweni ezingakhiqizi, ezibizayo, neziyingozi. Umthelela wentuthuko enjalo ebuhlotsheni ne-Israel, ikakhulukazi uma kubhekwa ukuthi ukuvubela kwangaphakathi kwamanje kulelozwe kusekukhulu, nokho okubalulekile, okungaziwa. Uma uhulumeni weNetanyahu onontamolukhuni ekwazile ukubambelela emandleni angase azame ukuphazamisa ukungaboni ngasolinye kwangaphakathi ngokubuyisela ubumbano lwesizwe ngokuthatha izinyathelo ezikhuphula ngamabomu ukungezwani kwesifunda, ikakhulukazi ne-Iran, esekelwa yizinsolo ezivusa amadlingozi zokuthi ukuphepha kwezwe lakwa-Israel kusengcupheni. Kuyangabazeka ukuthi lo mdlalo wakudala womdlalo uzosebenza ngaphansi kwezimo zamanje, kodwa ukuhamba kuleyo ndawo kungaba yingozi nokho. Futhi, izinselelo eziyingozi nezidala izinselelo zesifunda kanye nezangaphandle kwesifunda kungaba ukuqaliswa kwemibono ye-annexation kanye nezwe elilodwa engxenyeni yobandlululo, ikoloniyali yezifiki, izwe lakwa-Israel elibandlululayo lamaJuda.
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