Uma sibheka emuva ezimpini ezinkulu zekhulu leminyaka elandulelayo futhi sibheke phambili engozini ekhulayo yempi elwiwa ngezikhali zenuzi, kunegebe elilodwa elivelele ekuhlaziyeni nasekuqondeni. Lesi gebe ngokolwazi lwami akuvamile ukuvunywa, noma kuxoxwe ngalo, ngabaholi bezepolitiki noma kukhulunywe ngaso ezinkundleni zokuxhumana okuthiwa zizimele emazweni aseNtshonalanga. Ngempela, igebe libonakala linqatshelwe ngokucacile, futhi linikezwe i-hegemonic twist, ngumongameli we-Biden, ikakhulukazi ngokuphikelela okuphindaphindiwe kuka-Antony Blinken ukuthi inqubomgomo yezangaphandle yaseMelika, ngokungafani neyabaphikisi bayo abakhulu, 'ibuswa umthetho.'
Uma uthi nhlรก nje 'okubuswa umthetho' kungase kungabi lutho ngaphandle kwegama elifanayo elifushanisiwe lokubambelela emthethweni wamazwe ngamazwe. U-Blinken akasifaki isimangalo esinjalo, futhi ngisho noklebe wenqubomgomo yezangaphandle ungaba nesikhathi esinzima ukuze alinganisele ukuziphatha kwamazwe aseMelika ngokuthi 'kubuswa umthetho,' kodwa kunalokho angase athi, noma okungenani akholwe, elandela uThucydides, 'lokho abanamandla benza njengoba bezokwenza. , kuyilapho ababuthakathaka benza okufanele.' Abanye baye baqagela ukuthi 'ukubusa-okubusa' njengebinzana elikhethwayo kulezi zinsuku e-Washington lihlotshaniswa kangcono nokuzalwa kabusha kwe-'Pax Americana,' noma njengoba ngike ngaphakamisa ukuthi kususwe uthuli lwe-Monroe Doctrine eyayiqondise inqubomgomo yezangaphandle yase-US maqondana nayo. I-Latin America izomemezela ngemva kokuqothuka kweSoviet ngo-1991 lokho empeleni okuyi-Monroe Doctrine for the world, noma ebonwa ngelinye iso, i-NATO-IZATION yezwe langemva kweMpi Yomshoshaphansi.'
Amalebula anjalo acasulayo abonakala echaza impendulo ye-NATO ekuhlaselweni kweRussia ngo-2022 e-Ukraine, okwathi kusukela ngosuku lokuqala yaphathwa yiNtshonalanga njengesibonelo esicacile seCrime Against the Peace, ngokuvamile ebhekwa njengempi yobudlova, futhi yamenyezelwa iningi lamazwe ngendlela ye-UN General Assembly Resolution ES-11/1, ngoMashi 00, 2022, ngevoti lama-122-5, okungaba ngu-35 abalandula okuhlanganisa i-China ne-India) nakuba ngaphandle kokusekelwa okulinganayo kokulandela ukugxeka. ukuhlasela ngendlela yokubeka unswinyo, ukuhlinzeka ngezikhali, kanye nokuhlomisa ngezikhali okuqinile kwezombusazwe kubheke ekunqobeni kwezempi esikhundleni sokuvumelana kwezombusazwe okuzuzwe ngokuyeka ukudubula okulandelwa izingxoxo.
Okubonakala kwabaningi, ikakhulukazi emazweni aseNtshonalanga, okusobala ekuqaleni kweMpi Yase-Ukraine akucaci kahle uma kubhekwa ngokucophelela. Kunendaba yengqikithi yangaphambi kwempi yokucasulwa kwe-Ukraine ne-NATO kanye nelungelo laseRussia le-veto eligxiliswe ku-UN Charter, elilingana nokukhanya okuluhlaza okunikezwe abaphumelele eMpini Yezwe II ekusebenziseni amandla omhlaba emazweni abo. ukuqonda uma kuziwa ezindabeni zokuthula nokuvikeleka, futhi ngesikhathi kuqhubeka izibopho zoMqulu zokufuna ukuxazululwa ngokuthula kwazo zonke izingxabano zamazwe ngamazwe.
Ukuhlasela okungaphenduki kwe-US/UK e-Iraq ngo-2003 kuyinkomba yaleli zinga eliphindwe kabili elibonakaliswa ukusabela ekuhlaselweni kweRussia, njengoba kwaba nokungenelela kokushintsha kombuso we-NATO eLibya kanye nokwesekwa kwe-Euro-American ekungeneleleni kweSaudi eYemen kanye nenqwaba ye ezinye izibonelo ezibuyela emuva eMpini yaseVietnam. Ngamanye amazwi, 'ukubuswa ngokubusa' njengento engokoqobo kubonakala kusho ukungajeziswa noma nini lapho i-US, abalingani bayo nabangane, bethula 'izimpi zokuzikhethela' kanye nokuziphendulela mayelana nomthetho wamazwe ngamazwe ezitha zayo, ikakhulukazi izimbangi zayo zezwe, benqabele izinzuzo ezihlosiwe zelungelo labo le-veto futhi bathweswe umthwalo wemfanelo wokubambelela emthethweni wamazwe ngamazwe esizindeni sempi/sokuthula njengoba wethulwa ku-UN Charter. Empeleni, umthetho wamazwe ngamazwe awusona isithiyo ku-US/NATO mayelana nokwenza impi, kodwa usebenza njengenqubomgomo yamasu kanye nethuluzi lenkulumo-ze elizosetshenziswa ngokumelene nezitha. Ukuphindwaphindwa okunjalo ekusebenziseni igunya lomthetho kubonakala kabanzi ngaphandle kweNtshonalanga njengesibonelo esisobala sobuzenzisi bokuziphatha obululaza ngokujwayelekile isifiso sokushintsha ukubusa komthetho ngenjongo yokuphoqelela ubudlelwane phakathi kweMibuso Emikhulu enkathini yenuzi.
Lokhu kungaphezulu kwalo mbukiso wezindinganiso ezimbaxa-mbili kanye nobuzenzisi bokuziphatha njengoba kuboniswe enye incazelo ehlobene ye-Blinken yohlobo lokuhleleka komhlaba aluqinisekisayo egameni le-US Kuwukugomela kwakhe komlando ukuthi 'imikhakha yethonya' bekufanele iphonswe emgqonyeni wothuli. yomlando ngemva kweMpi Yezwe II, futhi ngenxa yalokho iqiniso lokuthi i-Ukraine (kanye neCrimea) emngceleni waseRussia, enolwazi olude oluhlangene lomlando, ubuhlobo bobuzwe, nokungazinzi kwezindawo kuthathwa njengokungabalulekile. Impela, amaCuba noma amaVenezuela, noma amaChile angaphambili kanye naseMelika Ephakathi, angathethelelwa uma ehleka kakhulu, uma kubhekwa imizamo ephoqayo yaseWashington yokwenqaba inani labantu bala mazwe ukuhlonishwa kwamalungelo abo okuzibusa, okuhlanganisa ngisho nelungelo lokuzibusa elingenakugwenywa. -ukuzimisela. Imikhakha yethonya kuyavunywa ukuthi ihlukumeza ngokuphathelene nemiphakathi esemngceleni, kungakhathaliseki ukuthi igcinwa yiRussia noma i-United States, kodwa nokho emhlabeni obuswa ngokungaphelele imikhakha enjalo ezindaweni ezithile zesifunda idlala izindima ezibalulekile zokuvimbela impi. Banganciphisa ukungqubuzana okungaba khona kwezombusazwe lapho ukwehliswa kwabaphikisana nezinhlaka zethonya ezihlukaniswe kahle ngaphambili kungase kuthiwe ngokunikeza ibhuleki ekukhuphukeni ngezikhathi zobunzima. Amazwe aseMpumalanga/aseNtshonalanga yethonya lokugcina ukuthula emhlabeni ngesikhathi sezinhlekelele eziyingozi kakhulu zeMpi Yomshoshaphansi, ikakhulukazi ngesikhathi se-Berlin Crises(1950s), Ukungenelela kweSoviet eMpumalanga Yurophu (1956-1968), I-Cuban Missile Crisis (1961) .
Kunokuba bakhiphe imikhakha enomthelela abaholi besikhathi sempi base-US, UK, kanye ne-USSR eMpini Yezwe II baqaphela ngisho nangesikhathi sesizathu sabo esivamile ngokumelene nobuNazi ukuthi umbango wangemva kwempi phakathi kwabanqobile uphishekela izintshisekelo zabo zezwe ezihlukile ngokunweba ithonya lemibono, lezombangazwe, nezomnotho, ikakhulukazi eYurophu lingase libe yingozi. Laba baholi, nakuba babesekela imibono enenzondo, bafuna izivumelwano ukuze bagweme ukungqubuzana kwangemva kwempi eYurophu ochungechungeni lwezingqungquthela. Abaholi base-US, i-USSR, kanye ne-UK bafinyelela izivumelwano, ikakhulukazi ngo-1945 e-Yalta nase-Potsdam, okungenzeka ukuthi zenze okuningi ukuvimbela isilayidi eMpini Yezwe III kunokuba ngokuqinisekile i-UN Charter futhi mhlawumbe ngisho nemfundiso esetshenziswa kakhulu ye-Mutual. Ukubhujiswa Okuqinisekisiwe (noma i-MAD njengesho i-pathology yokubulala abantu enkathini yenuzi).
Lezi zivumelwano zesikhathi sempi azizange zisebenzise ngokusobala ulimi olungenangqondo lwezinhlaka zethonya kodwa kunalokho zagcizelela ukuhlukana okuhlobene nokusetshenziswa kwamazwe ase-Europe ngaphambili ayelawulwa yizifundazwe ezihluliwe zama-fascist, ngokunaka okukhethekile okwanikezwa iJalimane eyabonwa njengenecala kakhulu futhi iyingozi. umlingisi phakathi kwe-Axis Powers. Mayelana nalokhu, iyodwa phakathi kwezifundazwe zaseYurophu, iJalimane yahlukaniswa yaba iMpumalanga Jalimane neNtshonalanga Jalimane, futhi inhloko-dolobha yayo iBerlin yayidume kabi ihlukaniswe yaba iWest Berlin neMpumalanga Berlin. Kuyo yonke iYurophu, iSoviet Union yanikezwa umthwalo wemfanelo wokuhlala kanye nokwakha umbuso eMpumalanga Yurophu kuyilapho abanqobi bathatha umthwalo wemfanelo ofanayo eNtshonalanga Yurophu.
Lolu limi lokuhlukanisa aluzange luvimbe womabili 'amandla amakhulu' ekuhlanganyeleni ezimpini zenkulumo-ze ngomunye nomunye kuyo yonke iMpi Yomshoshaphansi. Nokho eyakwenza kwakuwukunxenxa ukuhlakanipha kwamazwe ngamazwe ngendlela eyayihlonipha lokhu kuhlolwa kokulawula ngesikhathi sempi. Lokhu kuhlakanipha kwakuhluke kakhulu ekuphenduleni okuvuthayo kweNtshonalanga ekuhlaselweni kweRussia ngo-2023 e-Ukraine, kugcizelelwe ukudelela ukukhulumisana, ukuvumelana kwezombusazwe, nokufuna ngokusobala ukunqotshwa kweRussia ukuze kuqinisekiswe iMpi Yomshoshaphansi. unipolarity uma kuziwa ezindabeni zokuthula nokuvikeleka. Ngokungangabazeki, umkhathi wesikhathi sempi ngo-1944-45 waba nesandla ekubalulekeni kokuthatha izinyathelo zokuvimbela ukuqapha ukubuya kwempi enkulu eyalwelwa ukulawula nekusasa leYurophu. Ingqungquthela yasePotsdam yaphela esikhathini esingaphansi kwesonto ngaphambi kokuthi kuphonswe ibhomu le-athomu e-Hiroshima, uHarry Truman wazisa uStalin ukuthi i-US yayinesikhali esikhulu esingasheshisa ukuzinikela okungenamibandela kweJapane, njengoba kwenzeka ngempela.
Nakuba kwenziwa ngaphambi kokusetshenziswa kwebhomu le-athomu le diplomacy yesikhathi sempi yayazi ngokwesaba ukuthi impi ezayo izoba yingozi kakhulu kunezimpi zomhlaba ezimbili zangaphambili. Ngalo mqondo, le migqa yamaphutha eYurophu yasungulwa esimweni sethemba nokwesaba, kodwa futhi ngaphakathi kwemingcele ebekwe yi-state-centrism kanye ne-geopolitical ambition, okubangela ukungezwani ngokushesha okwaqeda amathemba okugcina ukuzwana kwamazwe ngamazwe ngemva kwempi, ngaleyo ndlela afiphaza amathemba okuthi ukweqa imincintiswano eyingozi enkulu yaMandla Amakhulu edlule. Lokhu kuholele ekungqubuzaneni kweMpi Yomshoshaphansi nemibono yayo eyinkimbinkimbi yemibono, ezempi, yendawo, kanye nezombusazwe zokungqubuzana okukhulu. Futhi nokho iMpi Yezwe Yesithathu yagwenywa, naphezu kwezingcingo ezithile eziseduze, eminyakeni engu-45 eyalandela ngemva kokuphela kweMpi Yezwe II.
Umqondo 'wemigqa yamaphutha e-geopolitical' kanye 'nemikhakha yethonya' ayisungulwa kahle ezenzweni noma kumbono wobudlelwane bamazwe ngamazwe, kodwa ubukhona bayo budingeka kakhulu ukuze kugcinwe ukuthula nokuvikeleka phakathi kweMibuso Emikhulu, kanye nomhlaba jikelele. . Lokhu kuhambisana kwemigqa yephutha yezwe ngokwengxenye kuwumphumela wokwehluleka komthetho wamazwe ngamazwe ukuba nekhono lokuphoqelela imikhawulo ekuziphatheni okuphoqelelayo Kwamandla Amakhulu abusayo, ewanikeza ukungajezisi kwangempela ngokwenza okungaphezu kwemikhawulo yomthetho. Ngalo mqondo, imigqa yamaphutha ye-geopolitical kanye nezigaba zezindawo okuvunyelwene ngazo zinikeza indawo ethuthukisiwe yomthetho wamazwe ngamazwe ngokubeka imikhawulo okuvunyelwene ngayo ngokusemthethweni ekuziphatheni okusekelwe izibopho ezithile zaMandla Amakhulu, okuyinto eyaziwayo ukuthi lapho yephulwa kuphumela ukungezwani okukhulu, futhi okungenzeka kube yinhlekelele. kungase kubangele impi phakathi kwezifunda ezihlome kakhulu emhlabeni.
Iphuzu eligqamile ukuthi impendulo ye-Biden/Blinken eMpini yase-Ukraine kanye nokudlondlobala kweChina kubukela phansi ubuhlakani bezwe kanye namasu okusebenzelana nawo asize ukusindisa umhlaba ebhilidini eliyinhlekelele phakathi neNkathi Yempi Yomshoshaphansi. Yebo, kwaqubuka izimpi ezibizayo emazweni ahlukene aseKorea naseVietnam, kodwa ezimeni lapho kwakungekho mvume yokwehlukana kwesikhashana okwakubekwe ngaphandle kanye nezigxobo zamasu zokuphonsela inselelo lezi zigaba okwakucatshangwa ukuthi zesikhashana zazingaphandle njengoba kuqhathaniswa neJalimane lapho bezisezingeni eliphezulu. Naphezu kwalokhu, ezimweni zaseKorea naseVietnam, izigxobo zazisaphakeme ngokwanele ukuthi i-US isongele ukusetshenziswa kwezikhali zenuzi ukugcina isimo se-quo, esiyingozi kakhulu maqondana neKorea, kanye neChina esebenza ngesisekelo sokuphepha kwemingcele yangena ukungqubuzana.
Cishe isho ukuthi imigqa yamaphutha e-geopolitical kanye nezinhlaka zethonya ziyizithiyo ze-second-order okubaluleka kwazo okubonisa ubuthakathaka bomthetho wamazwe ngamazwe kanye ne-UN. Ukulungisa lobu buthakathaka kufanele kubekwe eqhulwini ohulumeni nezishoshovu zomphakathi ezithanda ukuthula. Okwamanje, imikhakha yethonya iwukuqashelwa kokuhlukahlukana, isandulelo sohlelo lomhlaba olubambisene kakhudlwana, kanye nophawu lokuthi izinselele ezihlukile ezinhlelweni zomphakathi womhlaba wonke ezibangelwa ukushintsha kwesimo sezulu kanye nezikhali zenuzi zidinga ngempela 'uhlelo lomhlaba omusha' ukukhombisa izimfuneko zezifunda eziholayo ukuthi zenze ngokuhlanganyela esikhundleni sokungqubuzana. Mhlawumbe, Impi yase-Ukraine isengahunyushwa ukuze ikhiqize uguquko olunjalo ekubukeni nasekuziphatheni.
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