[Inothi Lokuqala: Ingxoxo elandelayo yashicilelwa ngaphambilini ngoSepthemba yi-inthanethi ye-Global Governance Forum. Izimpendulo zami emibuzweni ebuzwe ngu-Aslı Bâli zibuyekeziwe ukuze kubhekwane nentuthuko engenelelayo. U-Aslı wayengumfundi wami wokugcina we-PhD e-Princeton, uvele njengenkanyezi ye-UCLA School of Law eminyakeni yamuva, futhi manje usejoyine ubuhlakani be-Yale Law School. Nakuba ukukhalipha kwakhe njengomfundi wasePrinceton kwangikhuthaza futhi kwangibekela inselele, njengomngane wami engimthandayo u-Aslı ube nomthelela omkhulu empilweni yami.]
I-Ukraine: Impi, i-Statecraft, kanye ne-Geopolitical Conflict - ukugxila ekubuyeni kombuzo wenuzi
Isingeniso: Ingozi yokunyuka kwezikhali zenuzi esimweni sokuhlasela kweRussia e-Ukraine kube yinkulumompikiswano enkulu e-United States phakathi kwezazi, abahlaziyi benqubomgomo kanye nabahlaziyi bemidiya. Lezi zinkulumo-mpikiswano zembula imibono eminingi evela kulabo abachitha izinkomba ze-Russian ngamakhono enuzi njengokukhuluma nje okungajwayelekile kulabo abakhathazekile ngokuthi uma uMongameli wase-Russia u-Vladimir Putin ethola imuva lakhe odongeni lwase-Ukraine, angase aphendukele ezitelekeni zenuzi zamaqhinga. Noma ngabe ikuphi ukuhlolwa kobungozi e-Ukraine, kusobala ukuthi imibuzo yokuvimbela izikhali zenuzi isibuyile etafuleni ngemva kwesizukulwane lapho iningi labahlaziyi baseMelika belibheka ukungasabalala njengokuphela kwenhloso yenqubomgomo yezangaphandle yase-U.S. mayelana nezikhali zenuzi.
Kulabo abaqhubekile nokucindezela ukukhathazeka mayelana nokukhishwa kwezikhali zenuzi kusukela ekupheleni kweMpi Yomshoshaphansi, ukubuya kombuzo wenuzi kungase kuqwashise izethameli ezintsha mayelana nosongo olukhona olubangelwa izikhali zenuzi ezikhona. URichard Falk usenamashumi eminyaka eyisiphathimandla esingagunci esifuna ukuchithwa kwezikhali zenuzi. Kule ngxoxo, u-Aslı Bâli umema u-Richard ukuthi azindle ngokuthi ngabe ingxabano yase-Ukraine ingaba sengozini yini yokuba impi yezempi ecebisa umhlaba ukuthi uqhubeke nokubhebhetheka kwezikhali zenuzi noma lisekhona yini ithuba lokususa umhlaba kude neqhwa lenuzi.
U-Richard Falk unguSolwazi ka-Albert G. Milbank Wezomthetho Wamazwe Ngamazwe Nomsebenzi Wokuphuma Emeritus e-Princeton University kanye noSihlalo Womthetho Womhlaba Wonke e-Queen Mary University London, Faculty of Law. Ungumbhali noma umbhali-kanye wezincwadi ezingaphezu kwamashumi amabili, nomhleli noma umhleli wezinye eziningi. Iqoqo lemibhalo yakhe ekhethiwe mayelana nokuncishiswa kwezikhali zenuzi lashicilelwa emqulwini ohleliwe we-Cambridge University Press onesihloko esithi. Mayelana Nezikhali Zenuzi: Ukuqeda Izikhali, Ukususwa Kwezempi Nokukhishwa Kwezikhali (2019). U-Aslı Bâli unguSolwazi Wezomthetho e-UCLA School of Law kanye Nomqondisi Wekhono Lokusungula le-Promise Institute for Human Rights. Uxoxe noFalk ngoMeyi 2022.
Aslı Bâli: Ukuqala ingxoxo yethu, kungaba wusizo ukunikeza umongo othize ukuthi kungani ukubekwa eceleni kwezikhali zenuzi kwakubekwe eceleni kakhulu njengombuzo wamazwe ngamazwe ophuthumayo esikhathini sangemva kweMpi Yomshoshaphansi. Singacabanga kanjani mayelana namashumi amabili eminyaka adlule ikakhulukazi, lapho ithuba lokwakhiwa kwezikhali zenuzi zase-Irani kuthathwe njengokusongela kakhulu kunokuba khona kwezikhali zenuzi eziningi ezandleni zezinye izifundazwe?
URichard Falk: Ngicabanga ukuthi emashumini amabili eminyaka edlule selokhu kwawa iSoviet ikhombisa isikhathi lapho izikhali zenuzi zithi, ikakhulukazi i-US, zizizwe zikhululekile ngezikhali zenuzi. isimo sezwe samanje. Okuncamelayo kwakuwukuhlela lolu hlelo—lapho begcina khona izikhali zenuzi nezinye izifundazwe zishiya leyo nketho—njengombuso waphakade osekelwe esivumelwaneni sokungasakazeki (i-NPT) esihunyushwe ngendlela yokuthi kwehliswe izidingo zokuncishiswa kwezikhali zaleso sivumelwano. I-athikili VI ye-NPT iqukethe isibopho sokuhlehliswa kwezikhali zenuzi, obekucatshangwa ukuthi kwakuyinzuzo eyanikezwa ukunxenxa amazwe angewona awenuzi ukuthi abe yizingxenye zesivumelwano. Umzamo wezikhali zenuzi uthi ukulahla lesi sici esimisweni sesivumelwano kudala isimo esithokozisayo somthetho wamazwe ngamazwe: Kukhona ukwephulwa kwesimiso esibalulekile se-NPT, nokho lo mbuso wesivumelwano uthathwa amazwe ase-US kanye ne-NATO njengempumelelo enkulu yamazwe ngamazwe. umthetho maqondana nokunciphisa izinsongo zenuzi. Ububanzi obukhona be-NPT buncishiselwa ohlelweni oluqinile olubeka imingcele ekwandiseni izikhali zenuzi, kuyilapho kugcinwa ukuthuthukiswa nokulawulwa kwezikhali kukhawulelwe eqenjini elincane lezifunda zezikhali zenuzi. Lokhu kuhlanganisa ukuqonda kokuthuthukisa nokusongela ukusetshenziswa kwazo, kanye nokunquma ukuthi zizosetshenziswa kanjani nokuthi zizosetshenziswa kanjani, futhi ngezinga elingakanani, ezimweni ezinzima noma zokulwa. Lolu uhlaka lokulawula olungabonisi i-NPT njengombhalo okuxoxiwe ngaso, futhi aluhlakaniphile futhi luyalingana, futhi lwephula ngempela isisekelo esiyinhloko somthetho—ukuphatha okulingana ngokulinganayo.
Ngibambe iqhaza emcimbini wewebhu woMkhandlu Wezobudlelwano Bangaphandle ngonyaka noma ngaphezulu mayelana nekusasa lokuphepha kuzwelonke, futhi omunye wabahlanganyeli wethula umbono wokuthi i-Article VI ye-NPT iqondwa kangcono ‘njengenganekwane ewusizo.’ Okungukuthi, I-athikili VI yafakwa esivumelwaneni njengendlela yokwanelisa amazwe angewona awenuzi ukuthi anikezwa uhlaka lokuxoxisana ngokulinganayo ngokuba amaqembu e-NPT. Nakuba empeleni kwakukhona ukuqonda okucashile kusukela ekuqaleni ukuthi ukukhishwa kwezikhali, naphezu kolimi lwesivumelwano sokuzibophezela, akuzange kubhekwe yizikhulu zezombangazwe zezikhali zenuzi njengenhloso engokoqobo, noma efiselekayo, okumele ilandelwe yizizwe zezikhali zenuzi. , futhi ikakhulukazi yabukwa kanjalo yi-United States.
Uma ubheka ingqikithi ebanzi, njengoba usho, eye yabeka eceleni izindaba zokuncishiswa kwezikhali zenuzi, enye into okufanele igcizelelwe ukuthi kungene uhlobo lokunethezeka ngalezi zikhali. Kunezinkulungwane zezikhali zenuzi, ngaphambili e-US naseRussia, kanye nokuqonda komphakathi okuncane kakhulu kwezingqinamba ezikhona ekusongeleni kwazo noma ekusetshenzisweni kwazo noma ngaphansi kwaziphi izimo lezi zikhali zingase zethulwe ekukhulumeni noma ngisho nezimo zokulwa. I-US ikakhulukazi, namanye amazwe afana no-Israyeli, bebelokhu bethuthukisa izindima zokulwa zezinhlobo ezithile zezikhali zenuzi-ezibizwa ngokuthi izikhali zenuzi zamaqhinga noma okuthiwa "ama-mini-nukes" -okushiwo ngokuqinile ukuthi izikhali ezinjalo zingase zifakwe endaweni. noma izingxabano zesifunda. Njengoba kunikezwe uxhaxha lwezingxabano zamazwe amabili ezinengcuphe yokwanda kwenyukliya okuhlanganisa ne-Ukraine, uma ukungqubuzana kukhula maqondana neTaiwan, enhlonhlweni yaseKorea, eNdiya/Pakistan, mhlawumbe uma ukuphepha kuka-Israyeli kungaphansi kwengcindezi eMpumalanga Ephakathi. Naphezu kwalokhu okungenzeka kusatshwa kabanzi, kuze kube manje akukabikho impendulo evumelanayo noma engaguquki yamazwe ngamazwe ebonisa ukuphikiswa noma ukukhathazeka.
Izingozi zesimo sisonke zibonakaliswa kahle kulabo abalandela udaba lwenuzi ngokuthi Iwashi losuku lwembubhiso—egcinwa i-Bulletin of Atomic Scientists futhi ngokuvamile ethembela kukho njengokuhlola okunokwethenjelwa kwengozi yenuzi ngesikhathi esinikeziwe—iye yasondela kakhulu kulesi sikhathi kuze kube phakathi kwamabili. Ngaphambi kwenhlekelele yase-Ukraine ngicabanga ukuthi kwase kuyimizuzwana eyikhulu kuphela ukusuka phakathi kwamabili. Ngokwamazwi abahleli, “Iwashi lisalokhu liseduze kakhulu kweyake yaba ku-apocalypse eqeda impucuko.” UNobhala-Jikelele we-UN muva nje uxwayise ngokuthi umhlaba ‘unephutha elilodwa’ elikude nenhlekelele yenuzi.
Kunesinye isici esikhathazayo sendlela amazwe amathathu ezikhali zenuzi e-NATO athathe ngayo igunya lokusebenzisa umbuso we-NPT njengoba usebenza ezifundazweni okungezona ezenuzi. Akukho lutho mayelana nokuphoqelelwa kwesivumelwano, futhi i-Article X inikeza izifunda ezingezona ezenuzi ilungelo lokuhoxa uma zibhekene nezinsongo ezinzima zokuphepha. Futhi nokho i-US kanye ne-Israel benze izimangalo ezingekho emthethweni zokusebenzisa amandla uma bekholelwa ukuthi i-Iran ihlose noma ifinyelela ikhono lezikhali zenuzi. Lena i-hegemonic geopolitics, engadideki nokusetshenziswa komthetho wamazwe ngamazwe.
Ukuzithela ngabandayo mayelana nalesi zikhali kanye nokwaneliseka ngombuso we-NPT ovumele amazwe anamandla ukuthi agcine ubudlelwano obunamandla nezindawo ezingezona ezenuzi kuyizilinganiso ezibalulekile zale ngozi yosuku lwembubhiso. Ngakho-ke, isimo esingaphambi kwe-Ukraine, iTaiwan, ne-Iran sidinga isinyathelo esiphuthumayo ukugwema izingozi ezikhona, kodwa ukunethezeka komhlaba wonke kanye nokubeka phambili okuhlukile okunikezwe ukuqukatha izinsongo ezibangelwa izifunda ezingezona zenuzi kunokubhekana nezingozi zezikhali ezikhona ziye zagcina izikhali zenuzi. I-ajenda kusuka kunoma yikuphi ukuzibandakanya okunzima nokuncishiswa kwezikhali kanye nezinsongo zempi amashumi eminyaka amaningi. Lokhu kufanele kume noma inhlekelele iqinisekisiwe.
Aslı Bâli: Impendulo yakho iphakamisa omunye futhi umbuzo: kungani, ngokubona kwakho, izifundazwe ezingezona ezenuzi zivumelane ngokwephulwa kwesivumelwano esiwumongo sokuxoxisana ezazixoxisane ngazo ku-NPT?
URichard Falk: Ngicabanga ukuthi izikhali ezingezona ezenuzi nazo ziye zajwayela lesi simo sokunganaki uma kukhulunywa ngezikhali zenuzi, nakuba lokhu kungase kushintshe, hhayi ngenxa ye-Ukraine. Kungase kubonise umuzwa wokuntuleka kwamandla phezu kwenqubomgomo yenuzi yomhlaba wonke esimweni sangemva kweMpi Yomshoshaphansi. Phakathi neMpi Yomshoshaphansi, kwakube khona ukuzimisela engxenyeni yeSoviet Union kwase kuba yiChina ukuhlanganyela ohlelweni lokuhoxiswa kwezikhali ekuxoxisaneni ngokuncishiswa kwezikhali, futhi lokhu kwabonakala kungokoqobo kuwo wonke umhlaba. Kepha esikhathini sangemva kweMpi Yomshoshaphansi, i-US yasuka ngisho nasekuzenziseni izinto eziza kuqala ngokuhoxiswa kwezikhali futhi kube nokungabikho kwezifunda ezinamandla ezihlehlela emuva kulokhu kuqubuka. Sesikushilo lokho, ngicabanga ukuthi manje sekunombono obucayi ovelayo ohlangothini lwe-Global South ongaguqula indlela ebuyela emuva ngendlela esekela imibono yabakhulumeli bokuchithwa kwezikhali. Lokhu 'kubukeka okusha' kwe-Global South kuvezwe ngokusobala kakhulu ezingxoxweni nasekutholeni isivumelwano esisha, i-Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW), esasayinwa ngo-2017 futhi esizoqala ukusebenza ngeziqinisekiso ezingaphezu kwamashumi ayisithupha ngo-2021. Isivumelwano ngokwaso ekuqaleni besisekelwa amazwe angaba ngu-120, nakuba sithole amasignesha cishe asuka kokubili kokuthathu kulelo nani futhi savunyelwa kuze kube manje ngesigamu.
Esinye isibonakaliso sokumelana okuvuselelwe kwe-Global South ekubukeni izibopho zezikhali zenuzi kusobala engqungqutheleni yokubuyekeza ebambezeleke kabili ebizwe i-NPT. Ingqungquthela enjalo yokubuyekeza kufanele ibe njalo ngemva kweminyaka emihlanu kanti iNgqungquthela Yeshumi Yokubuyekeza ebaluleke kakhulu yayihlelelwe u-2020. Yahlehliswa ngenxa yobhubhane lwe-COVID-19, bekufanele ihlehliselwe u-2021 futhi yahlehliselwa u-2022 futhi ekugcineni yathathwa. ngo-Agasti 2022. Kodwa ngaphezu kwezizathu ezihlobene nobhubhane, kuyaqondakala ukuthi ukuhlehliswa kubangelwa ukukhathazeka phakathi kwezikhali zenuzi ukuthi kungase kuhlangabezane nokungqubuzana ne-Global South mayelana nokuchithwa kwezikhali. Nakuba ukwehluleka ukukhiqiza idokhumenti yemiphumela yokuvumelana kwasolwa eRussia, bekukhona nezimpawu ezikhona zokucasuka mayelana nokuqhubeka kokwenqaba kwezifundazwe zezikhali zenuzi ukufeza izibopho zazo ze-Article VI.
Ngamafuphi, ngisho nangaphambi kwe-Ukraine ne-Taiwan bekunesizathu sokucabanga ukuthi kunesimo esisha samazwe ngamazwe ezingeni lezinhlaka zikahulumeni mayelana nosongo olubangelwa izikhali zenuzi ezikhona. Ngicabanga ukuthi ukuhlangana kwe-Ukraine ne-Taiwan manje sekungeze umfutho kulolu shintsho ngokuvuka kabusha ezingeni lezinhlangano zomphakathi mayelana nokwesaba noma ukusetshenziswa kwezikhali zenuzi, futhi e-Ukraine ingozi eyengeziwe yokuthi izikhungo zamandla enuzi zizoba ngengozi, noma ngisho. ngamabomu, ehlaselwa. Ngikholelwa ukuthi lesi yisikhathi lapho nginethemba lokuvuselelwa kwengcindezi evela ngezansi ukuze ngibuyisele ukuchithwa kwezikhali zenuzi ku-ajenda yenqubomgomo yomhlaba wonke, futhi kulokhu ngokukhuphuka okukhulu kokuhlanganyela kwezinhlangano zomphakathi ezingezona zaseNtshonalanga kanye nohulumeni.
Aslı Bâli: Abanye baveze ukungqubuzana kwe-Ukraine njengokubonisa izinga amandla omhlaba angase akhubeke ngalo ngokungaboni ngaso linye ekubhekaneni nezikhali zenuzi. Ingabe kuwumqondo wakho ukuthi akhona amathuba okuqukatha lobu bungozi namuhla noma ngabe ngezingxoxo phakathi kohulumeni noma ukugqugquzela umphakathi womhlaba?
URichard Falk: Nokho, ngicabanga ukuthi ezingeni lezinhlangano zomphakathi kukhona ukukhathazeka okuqinisekile nakuba kungagxilile kakhulu okwamanje. Kunohlobo lokukhathazeka okuntantayo mahhala mayelana nokwenzeka kokuthi ukusetshenziswa kwezikhali zenuzi kungase kwenzeke ezwenikazi laseYurophu futhi lokhu kungase kube nomphumela obangela umfutho oholela ezinhlotsheni zengcindezi yasekhaya kwezinye izifundazwe zaseYurophu ukuthi zithathe isinyathelo sokuqeda leyo ngozi. Ngicabanga futhi ukuthi ezinye izikhulu eziphezulu kumbuthano wangaphakathi we-Biden ziguqule imibono yazo ngengxabano yase-Ukraine njengoba ubukhulu bengxabano yenuzi obungase bubonakale bucacile. Esikhathini sangaphambili sempi yase-Ukraine, kwabonakala sengathi abaphathi beBiden abazange babucabangele ngokungathi sína ubungozi benuzi, nakuba babehlale bekhona ngenhlanhla ngezinga elithile ngezingozi zempi zokukhula. Lokhu kuzwela kwabonakala, ngokwesibonelo, ekuphikiseni kuka-Biden izingcingo, ikakhulukazi ezivela kuCongress kanye namaqembu acabangayo aphiko lwesokudla, ukuze asungule indawo okungeyona impukane e-Ukraine, kanye nasekungabazeni kwakhe kwasekuqaleni ukunikeza abantu base-Ukraine izikhali ezihlaselayo. Ngokufanayo, ukuma kwasekuqaleni kokungagxambukeli emizamweni kaMongameli wase-Ukraine uVolodomir Zelensky yokufuna ukuyekethisa okuxoxiswana ngako kuphinde kwaqinisekisa ukuthi abaphathi beBiden bakuxwayile ukwanda, futhi bazimisele ukuvumela i-Ukraine ukuthi ilawule ikusasa layo. Kepha esigabeni sesibili sokungqubuzana, lapho ukuphikiswa kwase-Ukraine sekuphumelele kakhulu kunalokho obekulindelwe, futhi ukunqotshwa kwamasu noma ukuwohloka kweRussia kubonakala kungenzeka futhi kukhanga ngamasu, izinto ezibalulekile zabaphathi bakwaBiden zashintsha ngokusobala futhi baphatha impi yase-Ukraine njengengxabano. ithuba lokufundisa eRussia isifundo futhi ngesikhathi esifanayo, futhi mhlawumbe okubaluleke kakhulu, ukukhombisa iChina ukuthi uma izama noma yini efanayo neTaiwan, izobhekana nomphumela omubi nakakhulu. Leli phuzu lokugcina lagcizelelwa ngendlela ecasulayo nguBiden ohambweni lwakhe lwakamuva oluya e-Asia eveze isitatimende esiqinile somphakathi esibophezela i-US ekuvikeleni iTaiwan, okwalandelwa ukuvakasha okunezihlukumezi eTaiwan kukaNancy Pelosi okwephula umoya weNqubomgomo ye-One China eyathi. imele umnyombo we-1972 Shanghai Communique, ogcine ukuthula nokuzinza iminyaka engama-50.
Mayelana nengxabano yase-Ukraine, ngithole umehluko phakathi kwamazinga amabili. Okokuqala, kukhona ukubhekana ngeziqu zamehlo phakathi kweRussia ne-Ukraine mayelana nezindaba ezithinta ukungqubuzana kwazo zombili. Kepha okwesibili, kukhona izinga lokusebenzisana phakathi kwe-US neRussia, okubandakanya ukubhekana ngeziqu zamehlo okungaphezu kombuzo we-Ukraine. Lapha, ukukhuphuka kwakhuthazwa yilokho engikubheka njengenkulumo engenacala evela kubaphathi beBiden eyafaka uPutin idemoni kusukela ekuqaleni kwale nkinga ngoFebhuwari 2022. Ukuqiniseka, uPutin akayena umholi wezepolitiki okhangayo, kodwa nangesikhathi seMpi Yomshoshaphansi yaseMelika. Abaholi bagwema ngokunengqondo ukudukisa uStalin noma abanye abaholi baseSoviet, futhi ngokuphambene nalokho. Ezinye izikhulu zikahulumeni, amalungu eCongress, zenze amademoni izikhulu nezinqubomgomo zaseSoviet kodwa abaholi egatsheni eliphezulu bakugwema ukuziphatha okunjalo. ngoba kungadala isithiyo esisobala esinjalo ekugcineni imigudu yokuxhumana edingekayo phakathi kwe-US kanye namaSoviet, futhi ngokuphawulekayo amaSoviet enza okufanayo ngisho nangaleso sikhathi sokungenelwa kwamalungelo obukhosi njengaseMpini yaseVietnam.
Ngokudabukisayo, esigabeni sesibili sengxabano yamanje e-Ukraine, i-U.S. yaba umthombo wokudlondlobala. Ithonya laseMelika laliqondiswe nakuMongameli uZelensky owayedikibalisa kakhulu ukuthi aqhubeke nokufuna isiphetho sempi phansi okuxoxiswana ngaso. Esikhundleni salokho, isikhundla sase-U.S. sasibonakala sinzima ngokuphishekela ukunqoba kwamasu. Lokhu kucaciswe nguNobhala Wezwe u-Antony Blinken kanye noNobhala Wezokuvikela u-Lloyd Austin abaphawule ngethuba lokuthena amandla iRussia ngemuva kokuvakashela e-Ukraine lapho bethembise khona ukwesekwa kwezomnotho nezempi. Ngicabanga ukuthi manje sesidlulile isigaba sesithathu sengxabano yase-Ukraine lapho bekuqashelwa khona eWashington nakwezinye izindawo ukuthi abaphathi beBiden bahambe kakhulu ngendlela ekhuphukayo ngokombono wobuhlakani kanye maqondana nokulimala okuqhamuka ezimpini ezinde. Manje esigabeni sesine lapho futhi ukunqoba kwe-Ukraine kanye nokuhlulwa kweRussia/Putin kushintshe amaqhinga aseWashington futhi, ngemiphumela emihle kangaka ebonakala ingafinyeleleka kulokho okubhekwa njengezindleko ezamukelekayo. Umphumela odabukisayo, osuqedwe ngokwengxenye, uzoba impi ende e-Ukraine, enemiphumela emibi kakhulu emnothweni womhlaba kanye nokuphila kahle kwabantu abampofu ochungechungeni lwamazwe aseNingizimu Yomhlaba. Kuzoba nzima kakhulu lawo mazwe ancike kakhulu ekufinyeleleni kokudla namandla okuthengekayo, futhi lokhu kubandakanya amazwe aseYurophu. Akukhona nje ukuqhubeka kwempi yase-Ukraine nokungezwani kwaseChina, kodwa imiphumela ebingahlosiwe yezinhlawulo ezimelene neRussia ezizoholela emiphumeleni eyingozi ezingxenyeni eziningi zomhlaba.
Aslı Bâli: Uma ubheka ukuhlaziya kwakho iqhaza lase-U.S. ekwandiseni ukungqubuzana e-Ukraine, ngokubona kwakho iyini ingozi yamanje yokungqubuzana kwezikhali zenuzi noma okunye ukuguguleka kwamathuba okuthuthukisa ukulawulwa kwezikhali kwe-U.S.-Russian kanye nokuncishiswa kwezikhali zenuzi?
URichard Falk: Into edumazayo ngesigaba sesithathu ukuthi abaphathi beBiden abakawuvuli ngokusobala umnyango wesinqumo sezikhulu noma bagcizelele ukubaluleka kokumiswa komlilo okungamisa ukubulawa kwabantu ngokushesha futhi kuvumele ukwehla, futhi manje kuphakathi nendawo. wesigaba sesine kubonakala sekwephuze kakhulu. Lokhu okusikisela ukuthi kuzoba nezimo ezimbili ezimbi ezenzekayo njengoba i-Ukraine Crisis iqhubeka: eyokuqala ukuthi ubungozi kanye nezindleko zempi ende e-Ukraine kuholela e-US ukuthi iqhubeke ikhula ukuze izame ukuletha impi ezweni. isiphetho esisheshayo ngokwenza i-Moscow ivume, noma ihoxise, noma yenze okuthile okuvumela i-Ukraine ne-U.S. ukuthi ifune ukunqoba. Leyo ndlela empeleni ingafaka ingcindezi enkulu kuPutin, naye, angahle anqume ukuthi ukubhekana nengozi engathi sína kangaka kwezokuphepha zaseRussia kunikeza impendulo eqinile ehlanganisa usongo futhi mhlawumbe nokusetshenziswa kwezikhali zenuzi zamaqhinga njengendlela, futhi mhlawumbe okuwukuphela kwendlela, ukugwema umbono wokunqotshwa kwamasu ukuze kube yisiqalo sokuphela kobuholi bakhe.
Isimo sesibili ukuthi i-US ingase ilungele ukuphila nempi ende futhi inethemba lokuthi esikhathini esithile iMoscow izokhathala isipiliyoni, ngendlela amaSoviet enza ngayo e-Afghanistan nokuthi i-US yenza eVietnam. Kodwa ulwazi lwakamuva lusikisela ukuthi le nkambo ingaba yingozi kangakanani e-Ukraine nasemhlabeni. Kwathatha iminyaka engamashumi amabili yaseMelika ukuzikhipha e-Afghanistan, kwashiya lelo zwe lamukela amaTaliban njengoba kwakunjalo eminyakeni engamashumi amabili ngaphambili ngaphambi kokuxoshwa emandleni, izigidi zaxoshwa unomphela kanye nezigidi ezengeziwe ezizulazula emhlabeni wonke njengababaleki, kuyilapho labo abahlala ekhaya bebhekene nendlala futhi ukucwasa ngokwedlulele ngokobulili, kanye nezinkulungwane ezingenakubalwa zama-Afghanis akhubaziwe noma okubi nakakhulu. Ngokucindezela ngokulinganayo, njengoba abanye beye babonisa, umphumela ongase ube khona ngokombono wase-Ukraine ngeke ushintshe kakhulu ngenxa yalokho okwenzeka ezinkundleni zempi ezichitha igazi, kungakhathaliseki ukuthi impi izophela ngesonto elizayo noma eminyakeni eyishumi kusukela manje ngaphandle kokuthi impi ende izophela. kuphumela ekulimaleni okwengeziwe, ukucekelwa phansi okukhulu, kanye nokubekezelela ukucasuka.
Aslı Bâli: Ungakwazi yini ukusho okwengeziwe ngalokho ongakulindela ekupheleni kwengxabano yase-Ukraine noma ngabe kwenzeka ngezingxoxo zakuqala noma ekupheleni kwempi ethatha isikhathi eside?
URichard Falk: Hhayi-ke, ngilindele ukuthi isimo esingase sibe khona sokuqeda ukungqubuzana sizobandakanya ukuvunyelwa okuthile kwe-Ukraine maqondana nesifunda sase-Donbas eMpumalanga ye-Ukraine, kanye nesifungo sokungathathi hlangothi sezwe lonke, nokungewona amalungu e-NATO. . Ukuze uthole izimvume ezinjalo, iRussia cishe izolindeleka ukuthi nayo ithembise ukuthi izohlonipha amalungelo okuzimela kanye nokuzimela kwezombusazwe kwe-Ukraine. Kungenzeka ukuthi umbuzo waseCrimea ngeke uxazululwe ngesikhathi sokuqeda ukungqubuzana kwamanje. Izindlela zokuphela kwezingxoxo okuxoxiswana ngazo zase zivele ezingxoxweni phakathi kwezinhlangothi zaseRussia nezase-Ukraine ngoMashi ka-2022 futhi asikho isizathu sokucabanga ukuthi le mingcele izoshintsha kakhulu, noma ngabe inkundla yempi yase-Ukraine iphumelela esigabeni sesine. , kungase kuguqule inqubo yokuthula yesikhathi esizayo. Kodwa-ke, amathuba asekhona ukuthi umphumela wezombangazwe oncishisiwe wawungafinyelelwa ngaphambili, ngokuqinisekile esigabeni sokuqala sokungqubuzana uma kungenjalo ngaphambi kokuhlasela kweRussia, ngaphambi kokuba ukunqoba kwasekuqaleni kwe-Ukraine kuholele kwesibili, bese-ke, isigaba sesine sezwe. ukukhuphuka. Sekucace kakhudlwana njengoba ukungqubuzana kusaqhubeka ukuthi i-U.S. izimisele ukwenza ubude obudlulele, uma kudingekile ukuze igcine isimo sayo sangemva kweMpi Ebandayo njengomphathi oyedwa wokulungiselelwa kwe-unipolar yamandla emhlabeni.
Asli Bali: Uma ubheka lokhu kuhlola, yimaphi amathuba, uma ekhona, owabonayo okuvuselela izingcingo zokuncishiswa kwezikhali zenuzi ukuze kuphendulwe ubungozi benuzi obabonakala ngenxa yengxabano yase-Ukraine?
URichard Falk: Yebo, kukhona ithuba elimnyama kakhulu elingase livele uma ngempela kuba khona ukungqubuzana kwezikhali zenuzi kanye nokusetshenziswa kwezikhali zamasu noma ezinye izikhali zenuzi. Intuthuko enjalo ngokungangabazeki ingadala isimemo esisabalele sokuhoxiswa kwezikhali—ithemba elingenzeki, vele. Ngale kwalesi simo esibucayi, kuyinto engalindelekile kancane ukuthi kuzovela ukuqashelwa ukuthi ukuphishekela ukuzinza okungapheli kusetshenziswa indlela yokungabhebhetheki kufanele kuthathelwe indawo umzamo omusha wokunciphisa izikhali zenuzi. Ngicabanga ukuthi kungaduma kakhulu emhlabeni jikelele ukuhlola lokho okungenzeka, futhi ngingacabanga ukuthi amaShayina okungenani angavuleleka kulokho.
Ngemuva kokuqagela okunjalo kunombuzo wokuthi ngabe i-US ikulungele yini ukuphila emhlabeni onama-multipolar. Impela, inkathi yangemva kweMpi Yomshoshaphansi yanikeza i-U.S. ithuba lokukhulisa imibono ekhohlisayo yokuthi ukuwa kweSoviet Union kungase kungenise inkathi eqinile lapho okwakuwukuphela komlingisi wezwe wezwe. Ngomqondo othile yilokhu obekucatshangwa ukuthi uNobhala u-Blinken wayesho lapho ekhuluma ezinkulumweni ukuthi umqondo wemikhakha yethonya bekufanele ulahlwe ngemva kweMpi Yezwe II.[1] Umcabango ukuthi ngemva kweMpi Yezwe II, noma okungenani ngemva kweMpi Yomshoshaphansi, i-U.S. ikhetha ukwengamela uhlelo lapho umthelela wayo ungavinjelwanga mkhakha futhi unwebeka ngendlela yangempela yomhlaba wonke. Yiqiniso, ukube i-US yamukele lesi simo ngemva kweMpi Yezwe II, njengoba uNobhala uBlinken ephakamisa, bekuyoba isimemezelo sempi yezwe yesithathu. Lokhu kungenxa yokuthi ukukhipha imikhakha yethonya kuyobe kusho ukuvimbela ukungenelela kweSoviet eMpumalanga Yurophu, kungaba seHungary ngo-1956 noma eCzechoslovakia ngo-1968. Ngaphezu kwalokho, lokho uBlinken akuphakamisayo namuhla akulona izwe elingenazo imikhakha yethonya kodwa kunalokho ukujwayela kweMonroe. Imfundiso yomhlaba lapho i-US ibheka ukuhleleka komhlaba njengengxenye yayo eyodwa yethonya. Futhi-ke, i-Monroe Doctrine ngesimo sayo esincane se-hemispheric iyaphila futhi njengoba i-US iqhubeka nokugomela igunya layo lokubeka izinqubomgomo nokuphazamisa ezombangazwe zangaphakathi emazweni kulo lonke elaseLatin America kusukela eCuba kuya eVenezuela kuya eNicaragua nangale kwayo. Asikwazi neze ukukucabanga ukusabela kwe-US uma iRussia ibilokotha igxambukela eMexico iminyaka eyishumi ngendlela iWashington enza ngayo e-Ukraine.
Ngokumelene nalokhu okwasemuva, kubalulekile ukuqaphela ukuthi umzamo oqhubekayo wase-US ekuphakameni komhlaba wonke uyibeka endaweni enhle kakhulu ye-asymmetric ngaphezu kwabo bonke abanye abadlali abasebenzisa ithonya ngaphandle kwemingcele yendawo. Ngezisekelo zakwamanye amazwe ezingaba ngu-800—nomongo lapho u-97% wazo zonke izisekelo zakwamanye amazwe zingaseMelika—futhi amasosha akuwo wonke amazwekazi i-US isabalalise ithonya layo emhlabeni wonke, emhlabeni, emoyeni, olwandle, futhi itshala imali eningi. ukuze uqiniseke ukuthi izolawula indawo. Khonamanjalo, eceleni kwalokhu kutshalwa kwezimali okukhulu kwezempi kuwukungatshalwa kwezimali okujulile nengqalasizinda kanye nezinsiza zomphakathi ezidingekayo ukuze kusimame abantu bakhona ekhaya. Ngamafuphi, umzamo wase-US wokuvimbela i-oda lezindawo eziningi ekuphonseni inselelo isimangalo sawo sobukhulu bomhlaba wonke uza ngezindleko ezinkulu ekhaya futhi uyantengantenga phesheya. Ingozi iwukuthi leli su liya ngokuya liboshelwe ekutshalweni kwezimali ekuqinisekiseni ubuthakathaka besu kubantu baseRussia e-Ukraine, okubuye kukhuphule izilingo zokuzibandakanya ezikhalini zenuzi.
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Aslı Bâli: Kukhona okukhathazayo ngendlela umbango we-Ukraine oqale ngayo kabusha impikiswano yasekhaya, okwathi ekupheleni kweminyaka kaTrump kanye nokhetho lukamongameli lwango-2020 kwase kuqale ukuhlangana ngomqondo wokunqanda impi yaseMelika nokuqeda izimpi ezingapheli. Namuhla, ukuvumelana kwezinhlangothi ezimbili mayelana nesabelomali esithuthukisiwe sokuvikela kanye nosizo olukhulu lwezempi oluya e-Ukraine kungase kudlule lezo zibopho zangaphambili. Ingabe ubheka ukungqubuzana kwe-Ukraine njengokuhlinzeka ngokuqashisa okusha empilweni kuphrojekthi yobukhulu baseMelika?
URichard Falk: Ngesaba ukuthi lokho kungase kulungile. UBiden wayezibophezele kakhulu ekuhlanganiseni izwe njengengxenye yomkhankaso wakhe wokuba ngumongameli—isithombe sokuzibonakalisa njengomuntu okwazi “ukuwela indlela” futhi enze ukuvumelana kwezinhlangothi ezimbili, ekholelwa kakhulu ukuthi iMelika ebumbene ihlala iyizwe elikwazi ukwenza okuhle ngokungenamkhawulo. ekhaya nakwamanye amazwe. Eqinisweni, nokho-ke, le phrojekthi yobumbano yehlulekile ngokudabukisayo lapho uhlangothi lweRiphabhlikhi luhlangana ezindaweni zokhetho zikaTrump. Impi yase-Ukraine ngandlela thize isiwushintshile umpheme futhi uBiden ubonakala ezimisele ukwamukela leli thuba ukuze enze isivumelwano se-bipartisan mayelana nempi, kodwa ngokuqaphela okudelelekile ukuthi okwamanje ukufuna ubumbano ekhaya akuyona nje imbangela elahlekile kodwa ubonisa umuzwa wakhe olahlekile wamaqiniso we izwe. Izinga lokuduma kwakhe lihlala liphansi ngokumangazayo, kodwa ukwanda kwe-Cold War bipartisanship maqondana nokwaba izigidigidi zamadola e-Ukraine akunakuphikwa. Nokho, ngokombono wembulunga yonke, lo mbukiso omkhulu wokuzwelana nokuhlupheka kwase-Ukraine nokulimala kwezakhamuzi kanye nababaleki, nokunye, ubeka umehluko omkhulu endleleni i-US kanye neNtshonalanga esabela ngayo kwezinye izinkinga zobuntu. Ngakho-ke intengo eyodwa yalokhu bunye obuyingxenye ekhaya ingase ibe umhlaba ohlukana ngokwandayo lapho ukuma kwe-US kwehla kakhulu. Ukuqhathanisa okuqondile phakathi kwempendulo yaseNtshonalanga e-Ukraine kanye nokunganaki kwabo kanye nokunganaki okungenangqondo usizi lwabantu basePalestine, imiphumela yeMpi yase-Iraq, kanye nokufuduka okubangelwa izingxabano zaseSyria kunzima ukukuchaza ngaphandle kokucabangela isici sobandlululo. Leli qiniso alikaze liphunyuke ekunakeni kohulumeni nemiphakathi yaseNingizimu Yomhlaba.
Aslı Bâli: Uma sibuyela embuzweni wenuzi, uphakamise ukuthi impi yase-Ukraine ivusele isizukulwane esisha ezingozini zangempela zezikhali zenuzi ezigcinwe amandla omhlaba. Ingabe ukholelwa ukuthi lokhu kuqwashisa okuhambisana nokukhathazeka mayelana nezindinganiso eziphindwe kabili ezixhunywe ku-American hegemony kungase kuhlanganise izinhlangano ezintsha zomhlaba jikelele ezifuna ukuchithwa kwezikhali kanye nohlelo lwamazwe ngamazwe olunokulingana?
URichard Falk: Ngethemba ukuthi lokho kungase kube njalo. Ngicabanga ukuthi kungaba ngaphambi kwesikhathi ukulindela ukungqubuzana kwe-Ukraine iyodwa ukuthi ivuselele umnyakazo ophikisana nenuzi kuleli phuzu. Kodwa kungase kube nezinye intuthuko eziba nomthelela onjalo, into ngeshwa engeke yehliswe njengoba amaRussia enza umsebenzi wokuzibhoboza ngezikhali zenuzi ukuze kukhumbuze amazwe aseNtshonalanga ngezingozi zokukhula e-Ukraine. Zikhona nezinye izingozi zenuzi ezibhedayo emhlabeni. Ngicabanga ukuthi ubudlelwano be-Israel ne-Iran abuzinzile futhi bungase bukhiqize ukuqwashisa okuthile ngengozi yenuzi; okufanayo kuyiqiniso nasezingxabanweni zase-India-Pakistan, inhlonhlo yaseKorea, futhi ngaphezu kwakho konke ukungqubuzana okuzayo okuhilela i-Taiwan. Esikhathini sokugcina imidlalo yempi yePentagon ithole imiphumela ekhombisa ukuthi ngaphandle kokuthi i-U.S. izilungiselele ukulahla i-nuclear taboo izolahlekelwa uma kwenzeka kuba nokungqubuzana kwezempi e-Taiwan Straights. Ngakho izizukulwane ezintsha zingase ziqonde ukuthi umqondo wokufinyelela uzinzo ngezikhali zenuzi uwumbono okhohlisayo oyingozi futhi ongazinzile. Lokhu kungibuyisela embonweni ongahloniphi engahlangana nawo eMkhandlwini Wezobudlelwano Nezangaphandle mayelana nokuncishiswa kwezikhali kuyinganekwane ewusizo yokujabulisa umphakathi eNingizimu Yomhlaba. Ngaleso sikhathi, futhi kwakungekho ukuhlehla ngokumelene nokugomela okunjalo emhlanganweni. Impendulo yabalaleli bekuwukuvuma nje ukuthi yile ndlela ama-realist elites akhuluma ngayo ngokuvikeleka kwezwe. Yilolu hlobo lokuvuma kanye nokunethezeka olubeka isithiyo esikhulu kunazo zonke ekuhleleni komphakathi emhlabeni jikelele mayelana nokuchithwa kwezikhali futhi, ngaleyo ndlela, ingozi enkulu kakhulu esingawela ngayo ezinkingeni lapho uhlangothi olulodwa luzilungiselele ukubeka engozini impi yenuzi ukugwema ukunqotshwa kwamasu. Ngethemba ukuthi izinsongo ezibonakala manje e-Ukraine, Taiwan, Iran, nangale kwayo zingase zivuse izinhlobo ezintsha zokuqwashisa ezizukulwaneni ezincane manje ezigqugquzelwe kakhulu ezihola izinhlangano zomphakathi maqondana nobulungiswa bezemvelo nobuhlanga. Izikhali zenuzi ziwusongo olukhona emhlabeni wethu kanye nezinqubomgomo zesimo sezulu zobudedengu, ukungafani okukhulu kwengcebo, kanye nokucwasa okunonya kwesakhiwo okukhungethe ukuhleleka komhlaba wonke. Mningi umsebenzi okufanele wenziwe uma sizobhekana nazo zonke lezi zinselele, futhi kungase ingabi khona indawo engcono kakhulu yokwethula isigaba esisha sepolitiki yomhlaba wonke eletha izinguquko ngokulwela ukuqedwa kwezikhali zenuzi.
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