Ukuqonda impendulo yaseNtshonalanga ku Arab Intwasahlobo, okuyigama elimibalabala lokunyakaza kwentando yeningi kwabalingiswa abahlukahlukene okunyakazise izisekelo zomhlaba wama-Arab, kuyinqubo eqhubekayo. Lokhu kunyakaza kuphinde kubonakale njengokubeka engcupheni enkulu ekwakhekeni kwezomnotho kanye namasu okuthakaselayo okuhlotshaniswa nomthelela omude waseMelika nowaseYurophu esifundeni. Ngokusobala ngemva kokungabaza okusobala, ngisho nokungaboni ngaso linye, ohulumeni bentando yeningi abakhululekile baseNtshonalanga, abaholwa I-united states, bamemezele ukusekela kwabo i-Arab Spring, futhi baze bafaka 'ukungenelela kosizo' (okufihlwe njenge-No Fly Zone ukuze kuvikelwe izakhamuzi zaseLibya ukuze kunqandwe ukuvotelwa kweRussia neShayina ezweni. UMkhandlu Wokuphepha we-UN) ukusiza amavukelambuso anqobe empini yawo yombango ephikisana nombuso wamaQaddafi. Kuyo yonke indawo esifundeni umphumela wezombangazwe walokhu kuvukela umbuso usalokhu ugubuzelwe ukungabaza okuningi.
Njengoba ngisanda kuvakashela i-Egypt isonto lonke ngaphuma nalo mqondo ombaxambili wokuthi ukuguquguquka kwezinguquko kukhiqize imiphumela emangalisayo eyakha isahluko esihle kakhulu. Umlando waseGibhithe, kodwa futhi ukuthi kukhona izinhlobonhlobo zamandla amnyama asebenza ngaphansi kwe-radar ukuze aqukathe uma kungenjalo ahlehlise lo mfutho ojabulisayo wentando yeningi. Ngaphambili kwaba nokuvunywa okusabalele yizo zonke izigaba zombono womphakathi e-Cairo ukuthi inqubomgomo ebusayo egqamayo ingeyemizwa yabantu abaningi okungenzeka kube ukulungiswa okuqinisekile kwesimo sobunxusa mayelana nokungqubuzana kwe-Israel/Palestine. Lesi simo sesivele sibonakala ekuvulweni kwe I-Rafah Crossing kanye nasekukhuthazeni okuqinile kwaseGibhithe kwePalestine Authority/Hamas ukubuyisana.
Uma ngibheka ngaphandle, ngihlangane nokuqonda okufushane kokucabanga kwangempela kwaseMelika mayelana ne-Arab Spring okwangiveza ngokukhethekile. Ishicilelwe esigabeni sokuphawula sewebhusayithi ye-inthanethi kaMeyi/Juni 2011 ye Izindaba Zangaphandle, izwi elinethonya elikhulu livuliwe inqubomgomo yezangaphandle e-United States. Yabhalwa ngu UNassim Nicholas Taleb noMark Blyth, futhi bavula ngalo musho oshaqisayo: โIzinxushunxushu zaseMpumalanga Ephakathi zazifana kakhulu nenkinga yezezimali yakamuva: zombili kwakuyizimo ezimbi kakhulu okungenzeka ukuthi zazibukelwa phansi kakhulu.โ Yeka ukuqhathanisa okuyinqaba! Ukulingana kwakusekelwe phezu kwesimo esibi sazo zombili lezi zenzakalo, okuholele ekutheni ababhali bahlonze ukunyakaza kwenkululeko eMpumalanga Ephakathi nelebula elikhohlisayo elithi "izinxushunxushu," ngaleyo ndlela beshaya indiva izinselelo ezisobala zoguquko kanye nezinguquko eziqondiswe ohlelweni lwezepolitiki olucindezelayo. . Ezimweni ezimbi kakhulu, lokhu kunyakaza kungase kwehliselwe 'ukuvukela,' esikhundleni somfanekiso 'wezinxushunxushu' eziphakamisa ngokuyinhloko ukuphazamiseka okungenanjongo.
Isici esiphawuleka kakhulu, kuze kube manje, sokuphawula kweTaleb/Blyth bekuwukuphatha lezi Ephakathi Ephakathi izehlakalo njengomfanekiso โwezimo ezimbi kakhuluโ ebezingalindelwe. Icala elibi kakhulu? Umbono onjalo unengqondo kuphela uma ubonisa ngokungenhloso ukuvumelana kwesu okungadalulwanga kokuthi Ubusika Bama-Arab babungcono kakhulu eNtshonalanga kune-Arab Spring. Empeleni, lowo hulumeni wobushiqela esifundeni ubuyinhlanganisela edingekayo yesu elikhulu laseNtshonalanga elakhelwe kupetropolitics, futhi muva nje linwetshelwe ekunqandeni i-Islam yezepolitiki kanye nokugcina imigomo yezokuphepha yesifunda yakwa-Israel. UNetanyahu kanye nabanye abaholi bezepolitiki kwa-Israel bakuvume lokho ngokuvuma kwabo ngokungagunci ukuthi baphatheke kabi ngokuwa kombuso kaMubarak.
UNissam Nicholas Taleb ungumhlaziyi wengozi yezezimali owasusa umsindo ngesikhathi eshicilela incwadi yakhe Black Swan eminyakeni embalwa edlule. Inombono wayo oyinhloko nophoqelelayo wokuthi kukhona ukuthambekela okugcwele komlando ukulolongwa izehlakalo ezingalindelekile, futhi ikakhulukazi izehlakalo ezingazange zenzeke esikhathini esidlule. Isingathekiso sakhe esicacile esimaphakathi siwukucabangela ukuthi wonke amadada amhlophe ngoba awukho omunye umbala owawuke wabonwa kwaze kwaba yilapho kutholakala uhlobo lwedada elimnyama e-Australia. Lena indlela ehlukile ethokozisayo yalokhu ebengikubiza ngokuthi 'ipolitiki yokungenzeki,' ibinzana elihloselwe ukuphakamisa ukuthi okungenzeki kuyenzeka ngokuphindaphindiwe, okwenza izifundo zesikhathi esizayo ezisekelwe kumathrendi adlule kanye nokuqagela kwezibalo kucishe kube okungalungile.
Angiphikisani nombono wokuthi izenzakalo ezingenakwenzeka kufanele zicatshangelwe kakhulu lapho kucatshangwa ngekusasa. Engikuphawula kakhulu ukuhlukaniswa kwe-Arab Spring 'njengesimo esibi kakhulu,' kanye neqiniso lokuthi ukuphawula okunjalo kungasinda ekuhlolweni okuvela kubagcini bamasango abavamise ukuba nobuchule Izindaba Zangaphandle. Ngabe kufanele kuchazwe njengokwengamela kwezepolitiki ngephutha noma ngokufiphala kakhulu njengesambulo somqondo ogxile kakhulu ekusungulweni kwenqubomgomo yezangaphandle yaseMelika ukuze ungabonakali? Uma lokhu kwakamuva, ngakho-ke, akumangazi ukuthi umusho onjalo ubungeke uze unakwe ngoba wawuveza ngokunembile inkulumo yangasese phakathi kwezikhulu zenqubomgomo yangaphandle ngomthelela walezi zenzakalo. Okusekela le ncazelo yakamuva yiqiniso lokuthi lokhu kuphawula kwe-Black Swan kusalokhu kufakiwe ku Izindaba Zangaphandle Iwebhusayithi.
Kungenzeka ukuthi ngenza ihaba ngokuchuma okungeyona into nje yokushelela kwepeni! Okungenani, nokho, kufanele kube yisikhumbuzo, uma kungesona isexwayiso, ukuthi akukhona kuphela ukuhalalisela kwentando yeningi okwenzeka emakamelweni asesimweni saseWashington akha inqubomgomo yezangaphandle. Amazwe aseNtshonalanga, ikakhulukazi i-United States, mayelana nokuthi yini okufanele sithembele kuyo eMpumalanga Ephakathi. Njengoba amaShayina kuthiwa akholelwa: โabantu ababili balala embhedeni owodwa kodwa banamaphupho ahlukene.โ
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