Ngicabanga ukuthi kufanele uhlale lapha ukuze uzwe ukudlidliza. Thatha ngesonto eledlule, lapho ngizibambele mathupha kuvulandi wami - kanjalo nezinqola ezise-Corniche - ngomsindo omkhulu wendiza ye-F-16 ekhanyayo phezu kolwandle kanye nemigwaqo yase-Beirut.
Yimuphi umlayezo ama-Israyeli ayewuthumela ngalesi sikhathi? Ukuthi abayesabi iHezbollah?
Ukuthi bangahlazisa uNdunankulu waseLebanon uSaad Hariri?
Izulu liyazi, akudingekile ukuba lenze lokho, lapho uHariri esethathe kaningi umgwaqo oyincithakalo oya eDamaseku ukuze axoxe nobungane nendoda akholelwa ukuthi yabulala uyise uRafiq, uMongameli uBashar al-Assad.
Kodwa ubani onendaba nendiza yakwa-Israyeli? Ukucabanga ukuthi i-MiG yaseSyria ibibhuza i-Tel Aviv phakathi nosuku olumatasa lokuthenga ngesonto eledlule? U-Hillary Clinton uzobe egxeka uMnyango WezoMbuso, uNobhala Jikelele we-UN u-Ban Ki Moon ubezoxwayisa i-Syria ngemiphumela futhi ama-Israel azobe ecabanga ngesiteleka somoya eSyria ukuze afundise uMengameli u-Assad isifundo. Kodwa cha.
I-overflight yakwa-Israel yayiwukwephula okucacile kwe-UN Security Council Resolution 1701 - I-Israel iphula i-1701 nsuku zonke ngama-overflights, kodwa hhayi kuleli zinga eliphansi - futhi angitholanga nowodwa umbiko wesigameko emaphephandabeni aseMelika. Ama-Israyeli angabantu abalungile. Ezinye zimbi.
Kube sekungena indaba yomfundisi oshonele esigodlweni sesifundabhishobhi saseMaronite eSarba ngeledlule, equnjelwe yintuthu. Ubaba ompofu uPierre Khoueiry uwele phansi kuvulandi ngemuva kokusha kwebhilidi lakhe - abanye abefundisi ababili baphume bephephile endlini - futhi isonto lachaza ukuthi imbangela kube yiphutha likagesi.
Kusobala ukuthi kwakuyiqiniso: Ngibone ibhokisi lesiphambano elase lishile laphela.
Kepha i-OTV ihole ngesibindi izindaba zayo zasendaweni zasebusuku ngokuphakamisa ukuthi lokhu kungaba ukuqhubeka kokuhlasela kwe-fundamentalist emasontweni ase-Iraq nase-Egypt. Ungqongqoshe wezokwazisa e-Beirut, u-Tark Mitri, ukhale kakhulu “ngokungaphenduli kahle” kwenhlekelele yesonto.
ELebanon kulezi zinsuku, inhlansana nje yamahlelo ingashisa uphethiloli wezepolitiki. Yebo, singayichitha le mbudane. Ingabe i-Beiritis esencane engu-20,000 ayizange igijime i-marathon izungeza idolobha lonke ngeSonto, ishaya izigubhu nezimpawu ezishayisanayo futhi idansa "i-dabka" emigwaqweni? Impela. Kodwa kungani umnikazi wendawo eshisele isicabha esisha sensimbi phezu kwamafasitela akhe esiFulentshi? Futhi kungani efake ilambu lokuvikela ngemuva elikhanyisa ikhishi lami ubusuku bonke?
Mhlawumbe ulimi oluyingxubevange losopolitiki baseLebanon abangenathemba. Kusukela u-Sayed Hassan Nasrallah, usihlalo we-Shia Muslim Hezbollah owanikeza umongameli wase-Iran e-Beirut isibhamu sakwa-Israel eBeirut, wanxusa abaseLebanon ukuthi benqabe iNkantolo yaseHague ephenya ngokufa kukaRafiq Hariri - uNasrallah ukholelwa ukuthi amalungu ahamba phambili e-Hezbollah azosolwa - kade silindile. ukuze iKhabhinethi liwe.
Inxusa laseFrance likholelwa ukuthi uNdunankulu uHariri ngeke ahlale kuleli sonto. Ngicabanga ukuthi unephutha, kodwa ngakhathazeka ngezibikezelo zami lapho iHezbollah kanye namaqembu aphikisayo amaShiite ikakhulukazi enqaba ukujoyina ingqungquthela yokubuyisana kaMongameli Michel Sleiman ezinsukwini eziyisishiyagalolunye ezedlule. Ngaphansi kohlelo olunobuqili olwakhiwe ngu-Emir waseQatar, iningi lama-Christian-Sunni kukhabhinethi yaseLebhanon lingenza izinqumo. Kodwa abaphikisayo kanye neHezbollah banamalungelo e-veto. Nokho uma amaqembu aphikisayo engeke eze kumengameli ukuzoxoxisana nohulumeni wonke, kubukeka bengenandaba ngisho ne-veto yabo.
Osopolitiki abangamaKristu bathutheleka kuMbhishobhi wabo, uKhadinali Nasrallah Sfeir, ngaleyo ndlela baphinde baguqula iBandla lamaMaronite laba yiqembu lezombusazwe - nakuba lokho kungamangalisi lapho omunye uNasrallah (oyiHezbollah) ephendule amaShiite aba abamele ama-Irani.
Abanye (sicela ufunde i-Hezbollah, amaShiites kanye ne-Iran) babezama "ukuphoqelela abantu baseLebanon indlela engenakwenzeka nengalungile - benqabela ubulungiswa ukuze kulondolozwe ukuthula komphakathi, noma badele ukuthula komphakathi ngenxa yobulungiswa".
U-Michel Aoun, owayengumphathi-jikelele ongumKristu oqhekekile iqembu lakhe elisekela i-Hezbollah ngethemba eliyize lokuthi bazomenza umongameli - uNasrallah uyakujabulela ukutshela umhlaba ukuthi lo mfelandawonye umnika ukwesekwa kwezigaba ezahlukene - angajabula futhi ukubona inkantolo ilahliwe. Ngisho nomholi wakwaDruze, u-Walid Jumblatt, ipolitiki yakhe yenza umjikelezo womshini womoya njalo eminyakeni emithathu noma emine, manje uthi ubukhona bayo abubalulekile “njengokuzola kweLebanon”. Akudingekile ukusho ukuthi, uMama uClinton ubelokhu esocingweni ku-Hariri, emncenga ukuthi akhiphe i-Hezbollah futhi anamathele enkantolo. EWashington, lokhu kunengqondo. ELebanon, uzwakala sengathi uyahlanya.
Kungani? AmaShiite awumphakathi omkhulu kunayo yonke eLebanon, nokho amadodana awo nabafowabo bakha iningi lebutho lesizwe laseLebanon.
Akukhona ukuthi i-Hezbollah ingene ngokunyenya. Ukuthi njengoba nje amaKrestu namaSunni abavelele begcine amaShiite ebumpofu obuqhathaniswa, amadodana amancane adinga umsebenzi futhi athunyelwa ebuthweni. Cabanga ngeManchester noma iGlasgow phakathi kwezimpi.
Ngaphezu kwalokho, ibutho laseLebanon lisinda kakhulu ngojenene namakholoneli. Njengoba isazi seCarnegie uNadim Hasbani sabonisa, ungqongqoshe wezokuvikela kuzwelonke wazama ukuvula i-akhawunti neBhange Elikhulu, lapho izakhamuzi ezizimele zinganikela khona ngemali ukuze zisekele ukuthengwa kwezikhali kwamasosha. Eqinisweni, akukho akhawunti ngoba ngokomthetho ikhabhinethi kufanele ihlele noma yiziphi izinhlelo zesabelomali ezinjalo. Noma kunjalo, ibutho lesizwe lingakuhlela kanjani ukuthenga izikhali ngesisekelo seminikelo yokupha?
Kodwa emuva emasosheni Shiite. Uma ngempela bayalwa ukuthi bamashe eningizimu ye-Grand Old Duke yase-York, ingabe ukhona okholelwa ukuthi lezi zinsizwa zizongena ezindlini zazo zamaShiite ukuze zidubule abafowabo, obaba kanye nabazala bazo be-Hezbollah baye ekwayeni ye-White House. ?
Cha, babengeke benqabe futhi amasosha angamaKristu-amaSunni ayezonikezwa umsebenzi wokuhlasela amaShiite ahlomile. Ibutho lalizohlukana phakathi. Yaqala kanjalo-ke impi yombango ngo-1975.
Ngabe uMama uClinton - kanye nongqongqoshe wezangaphandle waseFrance onenhliziyo embi, ongcwele uBernard Kouchner ofike e-Beirut ukuzokweseka inkantolo - bafuna enye impi yombango eLebanon?
Kukhona enye inkinga. Uma kubhekwa izinombolo zabo, amaShiite akamelwe kakhulu ephalamende nakuhulumeni waseLebanon. Futhi kube nesivumelwano esingashiwongo - esingabhalwanga ngempela - e-Beirut sokuthi ukunxephezela ukuntula kwawo amandla ezombusazwe, amaShiite angaba namasosha.
Ukube uNkulunkulu ubengatshela uNasrallah ukuthi akhiphe izikhali zeHezbollah - ubezolalela ngempela, ngoba akekho omunye endaweni ongalokotha enze isicelo esinjalo - khona-ke uNasrallah uzofuna ngokushesha ukwanda kwezibalo zamaShiite kuhulumeni, ngokulingana nama-42 akhe mhlawumbe angama-XNUMX. iphesenti labantu.
Ngakho-ke, kuzoba nohulumeni wamaShiite eLebanon.
Ingabe yilokho okufunwa nguClinton kanye no-Obama omdala ompofu? Esinye isimo sama-Arabhu samaShiite sokwengeza ekwakhiweni kwesifunda sase-Iraqi samaShiite abasinikeze amaSaudis kanye nawo wonke ama-Arab Sunni njengomakhelwane?
I-Hezbollah engozini, yiqiniso, ukuthola lokho amaLebanese akubiza ngokuthi "amakhala amakhulu". Ngamanye amazwi, uma amakhala eHezbollah eba makhulu kakhulu, kukhona ozowasika.
Kuyinto eyodwa ukuthi uNasrallah namasosha akhe ahlomile - kanye nomnumzane waseTehran - ukufela amaMelika ngamathe. Kodwa i-UN iyinhlangano esemthethweni yomhlaba wonke; indawo yokubalekela - kungakhathaliseki ukuthi ayinathemba kangakanani - yabacindezelwe nabacindezelwe emhlabeni.
Ngempela, kunesikhathi lapho iHezbollah yayilenga ngokwenkolo - noma cishe ngokwenkolo - kuzo zonke izinqumo ze-UN ezigxeka i-Israel.
Kodwa ingabe uMnu Ban ufuna ngempela ukuthatha iHezbollah? Ngoba wazi kahle kamhlophe ukuthi uma iHezbollah "inamakhala amakhulu", iHezbollah ine-UN, ngomqondo ongokomfanekiso, ngamabhola (ihlala icabanga ukuthi i-UN inawo).
Ngoba ezansi ngomngcele waseLebanon kunamasosha angu-13,000 e-UN, okuhlanganisa namayunithi ezikhali e-NATO avela eFrance, eJalimane naseBelgium - naseShayina, ngenkathi silapho - nethimba lojenene be-NATO abaphethe. Kufanele ukuthi bagcine izikhali zeHezbollah ngaphandle kwendawo ephakathi komfula iLitani nomngcele, kodwa ngokokuqala ngqa ngesonto eledlule umkhuzi we-UN uvumile ukuthi ngaphandle kwamandla okungena ezindlini zabantu - udinga imvume yamasosha aseLebanon ngalokho (akukho ukuhleka. ) - akakwazi ukuqiniseka ukuthi azikho izingalo endaweni yakhe yokusebenza.
Konke lokhu kubuyela ekuqhumeni okukhulu ngasekuqaleni kwalo nyaka lapho inqwaba yezikhali iqhuma empumalanga yeTire. Ikholoneli ye-UN yaseFrance eyayingaguquki kancane - ngesihawu manje isibuyile eParis - yayala amasosha aseFrance nawaseJalimane ukuthi adlule eminyango yangaphambili yabantu bendawo ukuze abheke izibhamu. Wayexwayiswe izikhulu zezobunhloli zamasosha aseLebanon ukuthi angathuki abantu. Akazange anake.
Khona-ke amasosha okuthula angamaFulentshi ayehambahamba eningizimu yeLebanon azithola ejikijelwa ngamatshe. I-Hezbollah ithe lokhu kuqhuma okwezikhali zama-Israyeli ezindala ezasala empini yango-2006. (Uhleko olungenalutho lapha).
Abakwa-Israel babe sebengena kulo lonke udaba, bekhiqiza izithombe zasemoyeni - ezithathwe endizeni engenamshayeli, isikhali esiyinhloko empini elandelayo ye-Hezbollah-Israel - ngesimangalo sokuthi bakhombisa umcibisholo ongaqhumanga ulayishwa ngemuva elolini. esigodini esifanayo, kubukwe oshayasibhamu abathathu beHezbollah. Ngokushesha njengokuphazima kweso, i-Hezbollah yaqhamuka nekhasethi levidiyo elibonisa iloli elifanayo. Kodwa "umcibisholo" kwakuwumnyango wegalaji ocekeleke phansi futhi - maye ngo-Israel - "oshayasibhamu" abathathu babebonakala ngokusobala njengamalungu ebutho le-UN laseFrance.
Khona-ke ngesonto eledlule kwavela okunye ukuhlazeka, lapho iqembu lamakhosikazi angahlomile e-Hezbollah lithatha isikhwama esinemibhalo eyimfihlo kubaphenyi ababili benkantolo ye-UN abangenamaphutha ngesikhathi bezama ukuthola amarekhodi ocingo emtholampilo wezifo zabesifazane oseningizimu yeBeirut.
Ngisho nabalandeli abambalwa abamelene no-Nasrallah kanye nabasekela uhulumeni e-Beirut abakwazanga ukucisha ukuhleka kwabo lapho i-Hezbollah ikhombisa izimbongolo ezimbili emigwaqweni, ngayinye iphethe umfanekiso ophelele wesihlangu se-UN esiluhlaza ngaphansi kwezintamo zabo ezinoboya. Kodwa futhi, musa ukuhleka kalula. Ezweni lama-Arabhu, imbongolo ithathwa njengesilwane esilulaza kakhulu, esifanelwe ukubulawa. Ngakho qaphela i-UN. Futhi emuva kwabakwa-Israel, ababhonga kakhulu "ngokwesabeka komhlaba" njengoba uNasrallah enza mayelana nokubhujiswa okungenakugwenywa kuka-Israyeli. Kulokhu kwaba inhloko yezobunhloli bezempi yakwa-Israel u-Amos Yaldin - ongakaze athathwe eLebanon njengamadoda agqamile kunabo bonke - owatshela ikomidi lezindaba zangaphandle leKnesset eJerusalema ukuthi iHezbollah ingathatha iLebanon yonke "ngamahora ambalwa".
Izivikelo zakwa-Israel bezicekelwa phansi imicibisholo ye-Hezbollah futhi kwandisa amathuba okungqubuzana, wathi - wayeqinisile lapho - kodwa wabe esengena kumodi ye-apocalyptic njengabo bonke ojenene bakwa-Israel abafike osizini eLebanon.
Impi elandelayo, wathi, izoba yingozi kakhulu kunanoma iyiphi enye eLebanon - lokhu okunzima ukukucabanga - futhi "ngeke ifane nanoma yini esesiyijwayele phakathi neMpi Yesibili yaseLebanon noma (the) Cast lead ( ukusebenza eGaza).
Manje lokhu kuyinqaba kakhulu, ngoba impi yesithathu yaseLebanon - u-Yaldin ayeyibikezela - yenzeka ngo-1993, ukuqhuma kwamabhomu okukhulu okwaqothula abantu abacishe babe yisigidi eningizimu yeLebanon.
Impi yokuqala yakwa-Israel-Lebanon kwaba ukuhlasela kuka-1978 - i-Operation Litani, u-Yaldin ngokusobala wayikhohlwa - kwase kuba impi yesibili yaseLebanon ngo-1982 (i-Operation Peace for Galilee), u-Yaldin ngokumangazayo acabanga ukuthi kwakuyimpi yokuqala.
Kwabe sekufika impi ka-1993, kwase kuba impi ka-1996 (Operation Grapes of Wrath) kwase kuba impi ye-Hezbollah ka-2006. Ngakho-ke impi elandelayo - emva kokwehluleka okuyisihlanu okudlule - kuzoba ngeyesithupha kwa-Israyeli.
Ngabe kusho ukuthini konke lokhu?
Hhayi-ke, esikubonayo wumkhathizwe wamazwe angaphandle afisa ukugxambukela eLebanon njengoba enza ngesikhathi sempi yombango engenamusa yango-1975-90. IWashington ikhuluma ngokubaluleka kwenkantolo, kanjalo neFrance - amaBrits, amanxusa ayo akhuluma neHezbollah, abuza buthule nangobuhlakani ukuthi kungase kuhlehliswe yini ukumangalelwa kwenkantolo - ngenkathi abaseSyria nabase-Irani bekhala enkingeni ye-UN.
Ama-Israyeli, njengenjwayelo, asongela ingxenye ye-Armageddon.
AbakwaSaudi, abasekela amaSunni - uHariri ophethe ipasipoti yaseSaudi - bebelokhu bezama ukulamula.
Ngakho, ngendlela yokuhlehla, yiba namaSiriya. Esontweni eledlule, inxusa laseSyria eLebanon, u-Ali Abdul-Karim Ali, umeme inxusa laseSaudi, u-Ali Awad al-Assiri, kanye nenombolo yakhe emelene naye ehhovisi lenxusa lase-Iran, uGhadanfar Rokon Abadi, isandla esidala saseBeirut esasilapha ngesikhathi. impi ka-1996. Konke lokhu kuphakamisa ukuthi izizwe zamaSulumane esifundeni azifuni ikakhulukazi impi yombango.
Futhi abaseLebanon? Umshayeli wami u-Abed, owayenesimo sezulu esihle njenganoma yisiphi esinye, wayevame ukuba nesigqebhezana esimnyama esinamathiselwe esibukweni sakhe semoto. "Haqiqa", kusho.
Iqiniso. Ubelindele ukuthi inkantolo izomtshela iqiniso ngokuthi ngubani owabulala uRafiq Hariri.
Ngenkathi ngingekho kuleli hlobo, ngokudabuka okukhulu, wayidiliza.
I-ZNetwork ixhaswa kuphela ngokuphana kwabafundi bayo.
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