Izizukulwane ezizayo zabantu baseMelika zingalindela ukuchitha izinsuku ezingama-25 ngonyaka zishibilika emazingeni okushisa angaphezu kuka-100F (38C), ukushintsha kwesimo sezulu endleleni yokushintsha izwe libe yindawo eshisayo, eyomile futhi ethandwa kakhulu yizinhlekelele.
INational Climate Assessment, ikhishwe ngoLwesihlanu ingasalungiswa, inikeze isithombe esigcwele kuze kube manje semiphumela yesikhathi sangempela yokushintsha kwesimo sezulu empilweni yase-US, kanye nemiphumela engenzeka kakhulu yesikhathi esizayo.
Lo mbiko onamakhasi ayi-1,000, umsebenzi wososayensi bakahulumeni abangaphezu kuka-300 kanye nochwepheshe bangaphandle, ubungangabazi ngezimbangela zokuguquka kwesimo sezulu, kanye nokuxhumana phakathi kokuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu kanye nesimo sezulu esibi.
"Ukuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu sekuvele kuthinta abantu baseMelika," kusho umbiko osalungiswa. "Izinhlobo ezithile zezehlakalo zesimo sezulu sezivame kakhulu kanye/noma zishube kakhulu kuhlanganisa namagagasi okushisa, izimvula ezinamandla kanye nezinye izifunda nezikhukhula kanye isomiso. Izinga lolwandle liyakhuphuka, izilwandle ziba ne-asidi kakhulu, futhi izinguzunga zeqhwa neqhwa lasolwandle i-Arctic ziyancibilika."
Lo mbiko, okungafanele wamukelwe kuze kube ngu-2014, wakhiqizwa ukuze uqondise ohulumeni bamazwe ngamazwe, izifundazwe kanye namadolobha aseMelika ekwenzeni izinhlelo zesikhathi eside.
Ekupheleni kwekhulu lama-21, ukuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu kulindeleke ukuthi kubangele ukwanda kwengozi yesifuba somoya nezinye izimo eziphuthumayo zezempilo yomphakathi, ukunqanyulwa kukagesi okusabalele, nokuvalwa kwezinto eziningi zokuhamba, kanye nokushoda kokudla okungenzeka.
"Ukuzilungiselela ngokuqhubekayo ukuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu kunganciphisa imithelela, kanti futhi kusiza ukusabela ngokushesha nangempumelelo ezinguqukweni njengoba zenzeka," kusho uKatharine Jacobs, umqondisi weNational Climate Assessment.
Lo mbiko uzovuleleka ukuze umphakathi uphawule ngawo ngoMsombuluko.
Izinhlangano zezemvelo zithi zinethemba lokuthi lo mbiko uzonikeza u-Barack Obama ubufakazi besayensi ukuze kuthathwe izinyathelo ezizonciphisa noma zimise izinga lokuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu - kuphephise izwe eminye yemiphumela emibi kakhulu.
Umbiko usho ngokusobala ukuthi izinyathelo ezithathwe u-Obama kuze kube manje zokunciphisa intuthu "azisondele ngokwanele" ukuvimbela imiphumela emibi kakhulu yokushintsha kwesimo sezulu.
โNjengoba ukuguquka kwesimo sezulu kanye nomthelela wako kwanda kakhulu, abantu baseMelika babhekene nokukhetha,โ kusho umbiko. "Ngaphezu kwamashumi ambalwa eminyaka alandelayo, inani lokushintsha kwesimo sezulu lisazonqunywa ngokuyinhloko izinqumo umphakathi ozenzayo mayelana nokukhishwa kwegesi. Ukukhishwa okuphansi kusho ukufudumala okuncane okuzayo kanye nemithelela engemibi kakhulu. Ukukhishwa kwegesi ephezulu kungasho ukufudumala okwengeziwe kanye nemithelela emibi kakhulu."
Njengoba umbiko wakwenza kwacaca: ayikho indawo eMelika eyayingazange ithintwe ukushintsha kwesimo sezulu. Akukho lapho bekuyovikeleka khona ngokuphelele emiphumeleni yokushintsha kwesimo sezulu kwesikhathi esizayo.
Ezinye zalezo zinguquko seziyabonakala: Unyaka wezi-2012 ubushisa kakhulu kunawo wonke emlandweni, ushise ngokuphelele kunerekhodi elinjalo lokugcina - izinga lokukhuphuka elingekho kumashadi.
Lawo mazinga okushisa aphezulu ayezoqhubeka kuze kuphele ikhulunyaka, kusho umbiko osalungiswa. Iphawule ukuthi izinga lokushisa elimaphakathi lase-US lenyuke cishe ngo-1.5F kusukela ngo-1895, ngaphezu kuka-80% walokhu kunyuka kusukela ngo-1980.
Ukwenyuka kuzoshuba nakakhulu esikhathini esizayo, kanti emashumini ambalwa eminyaka alandelayo kulindeleke ukuthi izinga lokushisa libe ngu-2 kuya ku-4 degrees okushisa ezindaweni eziningi. Ngo-2100, uma ukuguquka kwesimo sezulu kuqhubeka endleleni yakhona yamanje, izwe lingalindela ukubona izinsuku ezingu-25 ngonyaka ngezinga lokushisa elingaphezu kuka-100F.
Izinga lokushisa lasebusuku nalo lizohlala liphezulu, linikeze ukuphumula okuncane ekushiseni.
Izifunda ezithile kulindeleke ukuthi zishise maduze nje. I-West Virginia, i-Maryland ne-Delaware ingalindela ukuphindwa kabili kwezinsuku ezishisayo kunama-degree angama-95 ngeminyaka yawo-2050. E-Texas nase-Oklahoma, umbiko osalungiswa uphindaphindeka kabili amathuba emicimbi yokushisa okudlulele.
Lawo mazinga okushisa adlulele nawo angadala umonakalo empilweni yomphakathi, ngokungcoliswa komoya okubhebhethekayo, kanye nengqalasizinda ekhuphule umthwalo wezitshalo zikagesi ezigugayo.
Kepha akukho lapho kuzobona khona izinguquko ezeqile njenge-Alaska, kusho umbiko.
"Ubufakazi obumangalisa kakhulu buse-Alaska, lapho izinga lokushisa likhuphuke ngokuphindwe kabili ngokushesha kunalo lonke izwe," kusho umbiko osalungiswa. "Kuzo zonke izinguquko ezihlobene nesimo sezulu e-US, ukwehla ngokushesha kweqhwa le-Arctic olwandle kule minyaka eyishumi edlule kungase kube okumangalisa kunazo zonke."
Ezinye izifunda zizobhekana nezimo zezulu ezimbi ezehlukene. Inyakatho-mpumalanga, ikakhulukazi, isengcupheni yezikhukhula zasogwini ngenxa yokukhuphuka kwezinga lolwandle kanye neziphepho ezinamandla, kanye nokugcwala kwemifula, ngenxa yokwanda kwezimvula ezinamandla.
"Inyakatho-mpumalanga ibe nokwenyuka okukhulu kwemvula enkulu emashumini ambalwa eminyaka edlule kunanoma yisiphi esinye isifunda e-US," kusho umbiko. Phakathi kuka-1958 no-2010, inyakatho-mpumalanga ibone ukwanda kwezimvula ezinamandla ngama-74%.
Indawo emaphakathi nentshonalanga kulindeleke ukuthi ithokozele inkathi yokukhula ende - kodwa futhi ukwanda kwengozi yezigameko ezimbi njengesomiso sangonyaka odlule. Maphakathi nekhulu leminyaka, inhlanganisela yokwenyuka kwezinga lokushisa kanye nemvula enamandla noma isomiso bekulindeleke ukuthi kwehlisa isivuno sezitshalo zokudla ezinkulu zase-US, lo mbiko uxwayise, okusabisa ukulondeka kokudla kwaseMelika kanye nomhlaba wonke.
Lo mbiko uwumsebenzi wesayensi onesifiso esikhulu kunawo wonke owake wenziwa ukuze kufakwe ikhathalogi imiphumela yesikhathi sangempela yokushintsha kwesimo sezulu, nokubikezela imiphumela engase ibe khona esikhathini esizayo.
Ibandakanye ososayensi bakahulumeni abangaphezu kuka-300 nochwepheshe bangaphandle, uma kuqhathaniswa nabacishe babe ngama-30 ngesikhathi somzamo wokugcina lapho uGeorge W Bush engumongameli. Okutholwe yikhona nakho bekubanzi kakhulu, kusho uJacobs.
Bekusekungaziwa, lo mbiko uvumile, ikakhulukazi mayelana nokuthi ukulahleka kweqhwa olwandle eGreenland nase-Antarctica kuzothinta kanjani ukuphakama kwezinga lolwandle esikhathini esizayo.
Izinhlangano ezikhankaselayo zithi zinethemba lokuthi lo mbiko uzogqugquzela u-Obama ukuthi athathe isinyathelo ngokushintsha kwesimo sezulu ngesikhathi sakhe sesibili. "Ukuhlolwa okusalungiswa kunikeza ithuba elihle kuMongameli Obama ekuqaleni kwehlandla lakhe lesibili," kusho uLou Leonard, umqondisi wohlelo lokuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu lweWorld Wildlife Fund. "Ngesikhathi kukhishwa umbiko ofanayo ngo-2009, i-Administration yawukhukhula kakhulu. Kulokhu, uMengameli kufanele awusebenzise ukuqala ingxoxo kazwelonke mayelana nokuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu."
Kodwa-ke, i-White House yayiqaphe kakhulu ekukhululweni okusalungiswa, ukuphawula kokuthunyelwe kwebhulogi: "Uhlaka lwe-NCA luwumbhalo wesayensi-hhayi idokhumenti yenqubomgomo-futhi awenzi izincomo mayelana nezinyathelo ezingase zithathwe ngenxa yokushintsha kwesimo sezulu."
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