Ukugxila ekuphefumuleni kanye nokubonga, incwadi yakamuva ka-Dahr Jamail ethi, “Ukuphela Kweqhwa: Ukunikeza Ubufakazi Nokuthola Incazelo Emgudwini Wokuphazamiseka Kwesimo Sezulu,” ihlanganisa ndawonye ukuzihlola komuntu siqu kanye nezingxoxo ezithinta amathumbu nochwepheshe abaphambili besimo sezulu. Izinguzunga zeqhwa eziwohloka ngokushesha e-Denali National Park, okuyikhaya lesiqongo esiphakeme kunazo zonke eNyakatho Melika, zikhuthaze isihloko sale ncwadi. “Iminyaka eyisikhombisa yokuqwala e-Alaska yayinginikeze isihlalo esingaphambili lapho ngangikwazi khona ukubona umthelela omkhulu wokuphazamiseka kwesimo sezulu okubangelwa abantu,” kubhala u-Jamail.
Ngokuxoxa indaba echaza ngokucacile, i-Jamail iqhubekela phambili enyakatho e-Arctic Circle lapho ukufudumala kwenzeka khona ngesivinini esiphindwe kabili. Uhlola izinguquko ezisheshayo eziqhingini zase-Pribilof, lapho imiphakathi yendabuko kuye kwadingeka ibhekane nezimo ezicindezelayo ezithinta izinyoni zasolwandle, izimvu zamanzi ezinoboya, izinhlanzi, nokunye okwengeziwe - iwebhu yokudla ewayo. Indaba iyaqhubeka endaweni entekenteke yeGreat Barrier Reef, ecekelwe phansi ukufudumala kolwandle. ISouth Florida ayingcono: U-Jamail uthola ukuthi i-acreage yombuso eyizigidi ezingu-2.46 izocwiliswa phakathi nokuphila kwakhe. Ochwepheshe bamangele yonke indawo lapho u-Jamail evakashela khona. E-Amazon, ecebile ngezinhlobonhlobo zezinto eziphilayo, imiphumela mikhulu kakhulu.
Echaza isimo samanje somhlaba, u-Jamail uwufanisa nomuntu osesikhundleni sokunakekelwa kwabagulela ukufa. Izinga lokushisa lomhlaba jikelele selivele selingu-1 degree Celsius ngaphezu kwamazinga angaphambi kwemboni. Engxenyeni yeshumi leminyaka edlule, usosayensi oholayo wesimo sezulu uJames Hansen waxwayiswa ukuthi lelo degree elilodwa lingaletha inkinga yokukhuphuka kwezinga lolwandle, ukuncibilika kweqhwa lase-Arctic, nesimo sezulu esibi kakhulu. Uphethe ngokuthi umgomo wokunciphisa ukufudumala kwembulunga yonke kube ama-degree angu-2 kuphela “uyingozi kakhulu.” Ukuncibilika okusheshayo e-Arctic kuyaqhubeka idlula izibikezelo ezilandelanayo. I-Jamail isikhumbuza ukuthi “njengoba amazinga okushisa embulunga yonke enyuka ngokushesha, kunjalo nezibikezelo zezinga lokushisa. I-Conservative International Energy Agency ibikezele isimo esingase sibe sibi kakhulu sokunyuka okungu-3.5°C ngo-2035.”
Kuncane okusebenzile ukukhuthaza isenzo. Mhlawumbe asikho isibonelo esingcono sesayensi yesimo sezulu esinganakwa njengokwenqaba ukuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu eqokwa njengomongameli wase-United States.
Usongo lwe-apocalypse ye-biosphere ezayo lukhathaza kakhulu, lubangela ukwethuka, futhi le nkinga ehlanganisa yonke indawo yezemvelo, yezomnotho, nengokomoya ishiya umuntu ezizwa engenakuzisiza futhi edabukile. “Ukuphela Kweqhwa” kuthatha isisindo esigcwele senhlekelele eseduze. U-Jamail uthwala ubuhlungu bomzwelo bomfundi ngokuveza okwakhe kabuhlungu.
"Lokhu kuhlola konxiwankulu emhlabeni wonke, lokhu kuhlolwa kokusungulwa kwezimboni kanye nokushiswa kwezinto ezimbiwa phansi kuwukwehluleka okukhulu," kusho u-Jamail etshela i-Intercept. Ukholelwa ukuthi sekuyisikhathi sokuqala ukuzivumelanisa nezimo. Kufanele senze sengathi isimo sezulu sesifikile futhi, okubaluleke kakhulu, sixhuma kabusha emhlabeni. UJamail ukhulume neThe Intercept mayelana nencwadi yakhe yakamuva kanye nokubhekana nosizi lokubika kusukela phambili zempi e-Iraq kuya kweziphambili zokuphazamiseka kwesimo sezulu. Inhlolokhono elandelayo ihlelelwe ukucaciseleka.
U-Dahr Jamail ufunda ingcaphuno encwadini yakhe ethi “The End of Ice” ku-Intercepted Podcast eqala ngo-54:57.
Incwadi yakho yangivala amehlo ngempela ngendlela engangingayilindele. Bengicabanga ukuthi kuzoba omunye umsebenzi owomile, onzima ukuwufunda, wezibalo, kodwa esikhundleni salokho ukhulume izindaba ezicebe ngempela ngokusebenzisana kwangempela nemizwelo futhi ukhulume ngesimo sakho semizwa ngenkathi ubika ngakho konke lokhu. Ngakho-ke vele ungitshele ngaleyo ndlela yokubhala nokuthi uzizwe kanjani phakathi nalezi zingxoxo nabo bonke labososayensi nabacwaningi.
Ukuphuma ngiye kulezi zindawo ezihamba phambili njengeGreat Barrier Reef noma iDenali noma iSt. Paul Island ePribilof, i-Everglades ezansi eNingizimu Florida, izindawo ezazishaywa kanzima kakhulu, ngokushesha kakhulu - ngangazi ukuthi ngizoba ukusabela komuntu siqu kakhulu nangokomzwelo kulokho. Ngakho-ke zonke lezi zindawo ezifana neGreat Barrier Reef neDenali kanye nezinye ezimbalwa enginobudlelwano obuseduze besikhathi eside nazo, ngizozibuka ngokuhamba kwesikhathi. Iningi labantu ngeke likwazi ukuya ezindaweni eziningi zalezi zindawo. Ngakho-ke bekuwumzamo wami ngempela ukuthi ngiyozama ukuletha lokho kubo ngokubhala kwami ngokungcono kakhulu engangingakwenza.
Ngaphuma futhi ngamangala, ngishaywe umoya ubukhazikhazi balezi zindawo, ngithola lezi zikhathi: Buka le planethi emangalisayo. Bheka lawa maqhwa alengayo eDenali. Bheka lezi zinhlanzi e-Great Barrier Reef. Bese kuthi ngasikhathi sinye, ubuhlungu benhliziyo bokubuyela endaweni eyiqhwa kanye neqhwa lonke seliphelile futhi uzwe lokho kubhoboza kwamathumbu.
Yilokho okwakuzwakala. Noma ukubuyela emuva ku-Great Barrier Reef: YiNdawo Yamagugu Omhlaba. Kuyisimangaliso somhlaba wemvelo. Nokuzulazula phezu kwezindawo lapho konke ongakubona kufakwe amakhorali amhlophe qhwa futhi wazi ukuthi iningi lazo lizofa futhi lithule, lingabi nampilo yezinhlanzi, futhi uzwe lokho. Ngakho-ke kube yilokhu okwenzeka ngesikhathi esisodwa sokwesaba nokubonga ngale planethi kanye nobuhlungu benhliziyo ngalokho okwenzeka kuyo.
Chaza ngaleli gama olisebenzisayo ekuguquguqukeni kwesimo sezulu, okwake kwaba “ngokufudumala komhlaba”; ukubiza ngokuthi “ukuphazamiseka kwesimo sezulu se-anthropogenic.” Pho kungani wenza lowo mehluko?
Ngisebenzisa igama elithi "ukuphazamiseka kwesimo sezulu okubangelwa umuntu noma i-anthropogenic" esikhundleni sokushintsha kwesimo sezulu noma ukufudumala komhlaba ngezizathu ezimbalwa ezahlukene. Okokuqala nokubalulekile ukuthi, inembe kakhulu ngokwesayensi ngoba ngokwenza i-geoengineering isimo sezulu, okuyinto esiyenzile ngokujova i-CO2 eningi emkhathini, siphazamise isimo sezulu. Futhi-ke esinye isizathu ukuthi kube nethonya likaphethiloli wezinto ezimbiwa phansi ekuguquguqukeni kwesimo sezulu emashumini eminyaka edlule ukuze lokho kube isichazamazwi se-moniker esivame ukusetshenziswa kakhulu: "ushintsho" ngoba akwethusi njengenhlekelele yesimo sezulu noma ukuphazamiseka kwesimo sezulu noma inhlekelele yesimo sezulu.
Enye yezinto okhuluma ngayo kakhulu kule ncwadi wukunqamuka esinakho siwuhlobo lwabantu emhlabeni kulesi sikhathi.
Hhayi-ke, umphakathi wamakoloni waseNtshonalanga. Kusiqeqeshela ukuthi singaxhunywanga neplanethi. Akusimiseli ukuthi sihambe siyohlala ngqo ebudlelwaneni noMhlaba. Akudingekile ukuthi siye emfudlaneni ukuze siyokha amanzi ethu. Akudingekile ukuthi siyozingela noma silima ukudla kwethu uma singafuni. Kuphambene nendlela yendabuko yokuphila, ngokwesiko. Ngakho-ke yingakho ngikholelwa ukuthi imbangela eyinhloko yokuphazamiseka kwesimo sezulu ukunqamuka kwethu okungokwemvelo emhlabeni. “Okwethu” kuba yilabo bethu abaphilayo, iningi lethu elihlala emphakathini othuthukile waseNtshonalanga. Futhi isixazululo esokuqala, kufanele siqale ngokuxhuma kabusha. Futhi ngicabanga ukuthi yingakho singaboni njalo ukuphazamiseka kwesimo sezulu ezindabeni zezindaba ngoba iningi lethu lihlala emadolobheni amakhulu, sithola ukudla kwethu ezitolo zokudla; amanzi ethu, vula umpompi. Nawa amanzi akho.
Singakuziba noma okungenani senze sengathi sikuziba futhi singezwa sengathi le mithelela isithinta ngokuqondile. Futhi kwabaningi bethu abasahlala kulelo bhamuza, sisengakwazi ukubalekela lokho. Ngicabanga ukuthi lokho kuyashintsha phambi kwamehlo ethu, kodwa ngicabanga ukuthi lokho ngempela kuyimbangela yale nkinga - lokhu kunqanyulwa. Ngoba ukube besihlala eduze nomhlaba, njengoba kwenza abantu bomdabu izinkulungwane nezinkulungwane zeminyaka, usijwayelanisa kahle nesimo sezulu. Futhi lapho izimvula zifika futhi lapho isomiso sifika futhi ukwazi ukufunda izinto ezinjalo futhi ubuke ukuthi izilwane zenzani futhi zenze izinqumo ezisekelwe kulokho - uzoyinakekela kangcono kakhulu indawo ohlala kuyo, uma 'siphila eduze kakhulu ngakho. Futhi ngokusobala ngeke uyinakekele kahle uma unqanyuliwe ngokuphelele kuyo.
Ngakho-ke ukubuyela encwadini yokuqala oyibhalile mayelana nokubika kusukela kwabaphambili e-Iraq kuze kube manje kule ncwadi ebika kusukela kumugqa ongaphambili wokushintsha kwesimo sezulu: Lezo yizihloko ezinzima ngempela ukuhlala nazo futhi ubhekane nazo isikhathi eside.
Njengoba kwakubuhlungu njengokubika nge-Iraq kimi, ngokwami - impi iyinto enzima kakhulu ukuhlala nayo futhi uthole ukuthi ungabhekana kanjani nayo bese ubhekana ne-PTSD nakho konke lokhu okuza nayo. Futhi leyo yinto engizophila nayo impilo yami yonke futhi noma ngubani oke waba sempini uyayenza. Ayisuki; ufunda nje ukuphila nayo.
Kodwa inkinga yesimo sezulu kanye nale ncwadi kube yilokho kodwa ezingeni elijulile ngoba ivame ukukhahlela ukulwa noma ukundiza, isibonelo, "O Nkulunkulu wami, silahlekelwa ngamaphesenti angu-2.4 ezinambuzane zethu, amaphesenti angu-2.4 ezinambuzane. i-biomass yeplanethi minyaka yonke. Lokho kusho ukuthi kulo mgudu wamanje, sicabanga ukuthi awusheshi, lokho kusho ukuthi azisekho izinambuzane phakathi neminyaka eyikhulu. Azisekho izinambuzane kusho ukuthi abantu ngeke besaba khona.” Futhi ukuze lowo muzwa ovelayo azi ukuthi kunokwesaba. Kuvele kutatazele. Kukhona ukulwa noma indiza. Ngiyaphi? Angikwazi ukuya ndawo. Lona ukuphela kweplanethi yethu ngakho yonke leyo mizwa kanye nosizi oluvelayo, uzokwazi ukubhekana nalokho.
Futhi-ke uma lokhu kuyilokho okwenzeka emhlabeni wethu, khona-ke kuzoba nomdanso oqhubekayo onosizi oluvela ngenxa yokudabuka, ukufutheka kubantu abathintekayo, ngalolu hlobo lwe-schizophrenia yangaphakathi, "Yebo, futhi ngisashayela. , futhi ngisandiza, nokho ngibhala le ncwadi ekhuluma ngesimo sezulu esibucayi.” Sonke esiphila kule mpucuko yaseNtshonalanga, lowo ngumdanso sonke esibhekana nawo nsuku zonke uma ngempela siqala ukugcona imizwa yethu.
Ngakho-ke ngifuna ukungena kweminye yemininingwane ezahlukweni ezahlukene zencwadi. Ungakwazi ukukhuluma nami kancane mayelana nokuncibilika kwezinguzunga zeqhwa ezifundeni ze-Arctic obukuzo nokuthi hlobo luni lwekusasa esibheke kulo kuleyo ndawo?
Uma sibheka okwenzeka ezinguzunga zeqhwa emhlabeni wonke njengoba iplanethi ifudumala kakhulu, silahlekelwa yiqhwa ngamazinga akhula ngokushesha. Ngakho-ke enye yezinto engiyenzile ukuthi, ngaphuma ku-Gulkana Glacier ebangeni lase-Alaska neqembu lase-US Geological Survey abenza inhlolovo yebhalansi enkulu yaminyaka yonke. Ngokuyisisekelo baphumela eqhweni futhi bambe imigodi futhi bathathe izilinganiso futhi batshale izigxobo futhi basebenzise i-radar futhi balinganise ukuthi lingakanani iqhwa elilahlekayo minyaka yonke. Kukhona okuningana kwalokhu ezizungeze iNyakatho Melika abakulinganisayo futhi, ngaleyo ndlela, banomlando onembe kakhulu, ngokwezibalo, wokuthi lingakanani iqhwa elilahlekayo ngokuhamba kwesikhathi.
Empeleni, esikwaziyo ukuthi izinguzunga zeqhwa zisendleleni, ngokwesibonelo, ku-48 esondelene ithi emigudwini yamanje kanye namazinga amanje wokuphuma kwamanzi, uma lokhu kuqhubeka, cishe ngeke kube khona izinguzunga zeqhwa noma yikuphi ezisele ezifundeni ezingu-48 ezihlangene ngo-2100. I waphuma waya ensimini e-Glacier National Park noDkt. Dan Fagre, futhi wangitshela ukuthi empeleni i-Glacier National Park ngeke ibe nazo izinguzunga zeqhwa ezisebenzayo ngo-2030. Ngakho-ke lokho kungaphansi kweminyaka eyi-11 kusukela manje.
Bese kuthi uma sihlehlisa isifunda se-Hindu Kush e-Himalaya lapho kuneqhwa kakhulu: Kunenkundla yeqhwa enkulu. Imifula eyisikhombisa emikhulu yase-Asia itholakala lapho. Lelo qhwa lisethubeni lokuhamba, ngokunokwenzeka ngokuphelele, ngo-2100. Uma kunjalo, abantu abayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-1.5 abathola amanzi okuphuza nokulima kulawo manzi, bayaphi? Benzani? Kwenzekani ezindaweni lapho bethuthela khona ngoba kuzodingeka bafuduke? Asikwazi ukuhlala endaweni lapho kungekho khona amanzi aphuzwayo namanzi okunisela izitshalo. Ngakho lapho izinguzunga zeqhwa zimuka, kuba yinkinga enkulu kubantu. Futhi abantu abaningi abakucabangi lokhu.
Ungangitshela ngohambo lwakho lokuya eGreat Barrier Reef nokuthi uboneni lapho? Kukhona okumele kushiwo mayelana ne-coral reef phenomenon ekukhulumeni ngokushintsha kwesimo sezulu ngoba kungenye yezinto abantu abangaxhuma kuzo ngendlela ethinta imizwa. Abantu bayakuzonda ukubona izinto ezinhle zibhujiswa. Asikuthandi ngempela. Ngakho-ke njengomuntu obonayo, ngicabanga ukuthi leyo yindlela ethokozisayo yokubhekana nokushintsha kwesimo sezulu: Bonisa abantu izixhobo zamakhorali nokuthi silahlekelwa yini.
Engcupheni yokuzwakala njenge-cheesy noma i-cliche, kuyingxenye yaleyo nqubo yokuxhuma kabusha neplanethi. Futhi uyazi, ngenkathi ngibhala le ncwadi, ngangithemba ukuthi uma nginomgomo owodwa wencwadi kwakuwukuba othile ayifunde bese eyibeka phansi futhi aphumele ngaphandle aye nomaphi lapho indawo ayithandayo kuwukuxhuma eMhlabeni - noma ngabe ipaki noma umfula noma ulwandle noma izintaba noma idlelo noma yini onayo - ngoba sesikhohliwe. Sesikhohliwe. Bheka le planethi emangalisayo esihlala kuyo. Aphume nje abuke isihlahla esinezinyoni azibuke nje imizuzu embalwa. Bheka konke lokhu. Imvelo izenzela yodwa konke lokhu.
Bese-ke sibheka esikwenzile, futhi sibheke ukuthi izenzo zethu zibangelani. Kufanele sikuthathele lokho, futhi ngicabanga ukuthi yilapho sibuyela khona kulo mdanso wobuhle nokumangala nokumangala kanye nothando kanye kanye nokuthi, “Bheka ukuthi silahlekelwa yikho konke ngokushesha kangakanani.” Ngisho, ngoba siyalahlekelwa. Sehlulekile. Lokhu kuhlola, lokhu kuhlola konxiwankulu bomhlaba wonke, lokhu kuhlolwa kokuthuthukiswa kwezimboni kanye nokushiswa kwezibaso ezimbiwa phansi ngokudlangile kuwukwehluleka okukhulu. Futhi bonke ohulumeni bomhlaba - yebo, abanye bakwenza kubi kakhulu kunabanye - kepha njengamanje, bonke ohulumeni bomhlaba behlulekile ukuphendula le nkinga ngokufanele. Futhi ngakho futhi, konke lokho kubuyisela onus emuva komunye nomunye wethu manje. Sizosabela kanjani ngabanye?
Ngakhulela eFlorida, eSarasota. Idolobha elisogwini eGulf of Mexico. Futhi ngiye ngaba nalokhu kuqonda impilo yami yonke ukuthi ngolunye usuku, mhlawumbe phakathi nokuphila kwami, idolobha lakithi liyoba ngaphansi kwamanzi ngokuphelele. Ngakho-ke akunangqondo: iqiniso lokuthi, oyedwa, sinoDonald Trump kanye nokuphatha okuphika ukuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu, kodwa okubili, ezingeni lombuso, sinobuholi obuphika ukuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu phezulu esimweni esizoba ngokuphelele, abathintwe ngokuphelele ukushintsha kwesimo sezulu kakhulu mhlawumbe kunanoma yimuphi omunye umbuso. Kodwa ungangitshela nje ngalokho okufundile eMiami nase-Everglades?
Leso sahluko esithile esisebenza ngokukhuphuka kwezinga lolwandle eFlorida kwaba - ukukubeka ngokucacile nangokucacile ngangokunokwenzeka: Bekuyingqondo.
Kwakumangalisa kakhulu ukuba kule ndawo engaphansi kwezinga lokushisa lolwandle. Kwenzeka ngokushubile nangokushesha kakhulu lapho njengoba kwenzeka kwenye indawo emhlabeni, futhi unabo ochwepheshe abahamba phambili bokukhuphuka kwezinga lolwandle emhlabeni. Baphumile eNyuvesi yaseMiami - uBen Kirtman noHarold Wanless, bobabili engixoxile nabo ngale ncwadi. Futhi ngilapho ngise-Miami Beach ngijikeleza nonjiniyela wedolobha wangaleso sikhathi uBruce Mowry, osebenza ngenkuthalo ukukhulisa imigwaqo eminingana ngamamitha amathathu, azi ukuthi akwanele, kodwa, “KULUNGILE, lokhu kuzosithengela isikhathi esanele. Sizosindisa i-Miami Beach. Singazama ukukunciphisa lokhu.” Ukuziba kalula izinto ezinjengalezi, empeleni idolobha lonke lisekelwe kulokho okwakuyixhaphozi lomhlume. Kunaleli tshe le-limestone elinezimbotshana ngaphansi kwalo okuthi - qagela ukuthi yini -amanzi aphuma ngalo.
Sekuvele kunezindawo ezinkulu e-Miami Beach nakwezinye izindawo zaseMiami ezikhukhula phakathi nosuku olushisayo, phakathi nesomiso, futhi abantu bavele bagqoke amabhuzu enjoloba futhi bahambe kuwo. Kukhona izinhlanzi ezibhukudayo ngezinye izikhathi ngokoqobo ngaphesheya kwemigwaqo. Ngakho-ke uphila ngaphansi kokukhuphuka kwezinga lolwandle ngalobu buholi obuxhaswe ngamafutha ezinto ezimbiwa phansi. Khona-ke ngesikhathi esifanayo nalokho, unososayensi abafana noDkt. Wanless owangitshela, “Bheka, ngazi kahle ukuthi uMarco Rubio uyakwazi engikutshela kona mayelana nokuthi kungakanani ukuphakama kolwandle osekubekwe kulo.” Akuphumi endaweni yokuthi kungenzeka singabona amafidi ayi-10 ngo-2050. Besingabona okungaphezulu kakhulu kwalokho ngo-2100. Ngisho ukuthi, iSouth Florida ihambile. Zonke lezo zigidi zabantu, nayo yonke leyo ngqalasizinda, nazo zonke lezo zindawo ezinobuthi okufanele zigezwe, kanye nesikhungo senuzi saseTurkey Point eningizimu nje neMiami endaweni ephakeme ngamamitha ayisithupha - konke lokho kufanele kuyekiswe ukusebenza futhi kuyiswe indawo ephakeme. Zonke izingobo zomlando, izibhedlela, amakolishi, yonke into, akunjalo? Futhi lokho kudinga ukuqala izolo. Futhi esikhundleni salokho, unalokhu ukuphika. Akukho okwenzekayo.
Ngifuna ukukhuluma ngomzuzu owodwa encwadini eyangiqeda ngokuphelele, futhi ngangingakaze ngizwe lolu lwazi kwenye indawo. Ubukhuluma, njengoba ushilo, uDkt. Harold Wanless eMiami, futhi ubhala ngengxoxo: “Esikhathini esidlule, i-CO2 yasemkhathini ibihlukahluka kusuka cishe ezingxenyeni eziyi-180 kuya kwezingu-280 esigidini ngasinye njengoba uMhlaba wawusuka enkathini yeqhwa uya enkathini yeqhwa. Lokhu kuguquguquka okungu-100 ppm kwaxhunyaniswa noshintsho olungamamitha ayi-100 ezingeni lolwandle.” Futhi ngakho-ke lokho kusho ukuthi sisuke ku-280 ppm saya kuleveli yethu yamanje, njengamanje, ku-410 ppm wekhabhoni emkhathini. Ngakho kusho ukuthini lokho?
Lokho kusho ukuthi, okungenani ngokombono, sinokukhuphuka kwezinga lolwandle okungamafidi angu-130 osekuvele kubhakiwe ohlelweni. 130 izinyawo kusho goodbye, Florida. Yebo, ngokuyisisekelo yonke iSouth Florida. Lokho kusho ukuvalelisa kuwo wonke amadolobha amakhulu asogwini emhlabeni. Bese beyaphi labo bantu? Kwenzekani kuleyo minotho? Sibahambisa kanjani bonke labo bantu? Ngisho, lokhu kusho iplanethi ehluke ngokuphelele ngokwayo, futhi yilokho okukhona.
Futhi kufanele sikhumbule futhi ukuthi ngokuhambisana nalokho, kunombiko weNASA engixoxa ngawo encwadini exoxa ngokuthi emuva kanjani ePliocene, cishe eminyakeni eyizigidi ezi-3 edlule lapho kwakucishe kube nenani elifanayo le-CO2 emkhathini njengoba kukhona. manje ngenxa yethu: Amazinga olwandle ayephakeme ngamamitha angama-20 kunanamuhla. Izinga lokushisa elijwayelekile emhlabeni wonke lalingu-3 kuya ku-4°C ngaphezu kwalokhu okuyikho manje, futhi kwakunezingxenye zembulunga lapho lalingu-10°C ngaphezulu.
Sibona izinguquko ze-geologic zenzeka esikalini sesikhathi somuntu. Sibheke uguquko ngokushesha kunalokho okwenzeka ngesikhathi sokuqothulwa kwenqwaba ye-Permian, kuze kube manje okwakuyisehlakalo sokuqothulwa kwenqwaba esibulala kakhulu emlandweni weplanethi. Eminyakeni eyizigidi ezingu-252 edlule, amaphesenti angu-90 azo zonke izinto eziphilayo eMhlabeni ashabalala, futhi sifake i-CO2 emkhathini ngesivinini esisheshayo kakhulu kunalokho okubangele leso sigameko sokushabalala okukhulu.
Ake sikhulume ngemililo yequbula. Ubhale ukuthi, “Ukuphazamiseka kwesimo sezulu sekuyimbangela yokusha kwengxenye yehlathi entshonalanga ye-United States kule minyaka engu-30 edlule.” Kuyashaqisa impela lokho.
Ikona. Ngihlala ePacific Northwest. Uyakusho lokho, abantu abaningi bafanekisela amahlathi emvula, imvula eningi, iSeattle emanzi, impunga, konke lokhu. Futhi nokho sesivele, njengoba sikhuluma manje ngoSuku Lomhlaba, sibe nemililo yequbula engama-50 e-Washington State, lapho ngihlala khona. Leyo ngokuvamile yinombolo esinayo ngasekupheleni kuka-Agasti nango-Okthoba, okuyisizini yomlilo wequbula. Kunamadolobhana aqala ukungaphili. Uma unezinkinga zokuphefumula, awukwazi ukuhlala edolobheni eligcwele intuthu yomlilo amasonto alandelayo.
Kuyamangaza ngempela uma ubheka iqiniso lokuthi uma sesifinyelele ukufudumala kwama-degree Celsius angu-3 (sesiku-1.1 degrees Celsius manje), ososayensi abaningi basitshela ukuthi uma siyeka konke ukukhishwa kukaphethiloli wezinto ezimbiwa phansi nge-dime, sinesilinganiso esincane esingu-3. degrees Celsius ukufudumala kakade kubhakwe ohlelweni. Lokho kusho ukuthungwa kocansi kwenani lemililo yequbula eNtshonalanga yaseMelika. Uma ubheka okwenzeka eCalifornia, njengesibonelo nje, eminyakeni embalwa edlule, phinda lokho ngesithupha.
Ngakho silapho onqenqemeni lwale mithelela. Kodwa into eyodwa engifuna ukuyikhumbuza abantu: Kulula ukucabanga e-United States, "O, kodwa, okuningi kwalokhu kwenzeka kubi kakhulu kwamanye amazwe." Nokho, uma uhlala ePharadesi, eCalifornia, asisekho isikhathi esizayo mayelana nesimo sezulu esibucayi kuwe. Uma usanda kulahlekelwa yikho konke futhi wazi othile oshonile futhi uma uphume kulokho ephila, ngokulambisa: Usanda kuphila nge-apocalypse.
Khuluma ngokufana okungokomzwelo kokusebenza kokubili njengentatheli yempi kanye nokuhlanganisa ukuguquka kwesimo sezulu. Ngikholwa ukuthi ukuchaze njengosizi.
Kukhona usizi olujulile, olujulile oluvelayo, futhi indlela engibhale ngayo ngayo encwadini ukuthi ngabelane ngendaba yomngane wami othandekayo: u-Duane French, indoda ene-quadriplegic engangiyisebenzela, njengeyakhe. umsizi womuntu siqu, phezulu e-Alaska ngenkathi ngiqala ukuthuthela lapho maphakathi nawo-'90s. Futhi eminyakeni embalwa edlule, waba nenyumoniya, futhi ngacabanga ngempela, “Usefile.” Wayese-ICU amasonto elandelana, futhi kwakungekho nesisodwa isidakamizwa esasisebenza, futhi ngangikholelwa ngempela ukuthi ngangisesimweni sokugulela ukufa naye. Futhi ngakho konke okwakubalulekile kimi kwakuwukuba khona ngempela ngangokunokwenzeka futhi ngibonge umzuzu ngamunye enganginawo ngenkathi eselapha.
Pho ngenzeni? Ngabe ugqozi lwami luvelaphi uma izinto zibonakala zilahlekile ngempela? Yilapho engaba nengxoxo enkulu nendoda yemithi yeCherokee okuthiwa uStan Rushworth, empeleni. Ungikhumbuze ngomehluko phakathi komqondo wezifiki zekoloni othi, “Sinamalungelo,” ngokumelene nefilosofi yomdabu yokuthi, “Sonke sizalelwa emhlabeni sinezibopho.” Ezimbili ezinkulu ahlanganyela nami yilezi: isibopho sokunakekela, nokuba umphathi weplanethi; kanye nesibopho sokusebenzela izizukulwane ezizayo futhi ngenze izinqumo zami ngokusekelwe kulokho okuzozinakekela kangcono kakhulu. Ngakho-ke noma ngabe izinto zibukeka zimbi kangakanani namuhla, uma ngisukuma futhi ngizibuza, “KULUNGILE, ngingaba kanjani usizo olungcono kakhulu namuhla emhlabeni nasezinganeni?” Khona-ke ngiba nomsebenzi wami, futhi akukho ukushoda kwezinto okufanele ngizenze. Futhi ngibophekile ngokokuziphatha ukwenza konke okusemandleni ami ukuzama ukusiza ngandlela thize, noma ngabe kuzoba njani.
Ngakho-ke ezindaweni eziningi kulezi zingxoxo mayelana nesimo sezulu, ingxoxo iphendukela ethembeni lekusasa ekugcineni, kodwa angifuni ngempela ukukhuluma ngethemba, niyazi, ngomqondo waleyo ncazelo yezixazululo. Ngifuna ukwazi ukuthi ububhekana kanjani nesisindo salokhu kwaziswa nokuthi wena ngokwakho uze walichaza kanjani ithemba.
Kunjalo, bekufanele ngibhekane nempela ithemba eliphikisana nepharadigm yokungabi nathemba. Ukukufingqa, ngaphambili, ngicaphuna uVaclav Havel owathi, “Ithemba akulona inkolelo yokuthi okuthile kuzohamba kahle kodwa yisiqiniseko sokuthi okuthile kufanele kwenziwe noma ngabe kwenzeka kanjani.” Ngethemba esimweni sesimo sezulu esibucayi kulokhu kunyakaza: Omunye umuntu, noma iqembu elithile, noma inhlangano ethile izokwenza okuthile - noma ngabe ngiyingxenye yalokho - bese kukhona okuzokwenzeka esikhathini esizayo. Futhi ngicabanga ukuthi kuyasikhipha kithina, futhi kuyasikhipha kulesi sikhathi samanje. Futhi njengamanje, kulo mzuzwana, kimi, yilapho yonke i-ejensi yami ikhona. Ngakho-ke noma yiziphi izenzo engizenzayo njengamanje, yilokho ngempela, okubalulekile, futhi kufanele ngizibophezele ngokugcwele kulokho. Futhi ngicabanga ukuthi yilokho engifika kukho: ukwamukela ukuthi sinokuncane okungu-3°C okubhakwe kusistimu. Lokho kuyinhlekelele ngokuphelele. Akekho ozophikisa ukuthi kuyinhlekelele kangakanani lokho.
Futhi yebo, kudingeka okwengeziwe. Futhi yebo, kubukeka sengathi konke kungalahleka kodwa kufanele ngiqhubeke nokubuyela kulokho. Yini engenza ngivuke ekuseni, futhi yiziphi izibopho zami? Futhi lapho ngisuka kuleyo ndawo, khona-ke ngizizwa nginentshiseko enkulu ngalokhu kunanini ngaphambili futhi ngokuqinisekile nangaphambi kokuba ngibhale incwadi.
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