Umphumela wezingqungquthela zesimo sezulu emhlabeni awushintshile kusukela iNhlangano Yezizwe Ezihlangene yaba neNgqungquthela yokuqala Yamaqembu (COP) eBerlin ngo-1995. Ukufinyelela ukuvumelana kwamazwe ngamazwe mayelana nesenzo sezulu esingahle sigweme imiphumela emibi kakhulu yokufudumala kwembulunga yonke futhi kubeke iplanethi endaweni enhle. ithrekhi esimeme bekulokhu kuwumgomo ongenakwenzeka ngenxa yamandla emboni yamafutha ezinto ezimbiwa phansi kanye nepolitiki yesikhashana. Ekugcineni, "izingxoxo zikaphethiloli wezinsalela" zihlala zinqoba izintshisekelo zesintu kanye neplanethi. Nokho, ngandlela thile, izitatimende zokuhalalisela zenziwa njalo ekupheleni kwawo wonke ama-COP. Okwamanje, ibhizinisi lemboni kaphethiloli wezinto ezimbiwa phansi liyaqhubeka ngaphandle kokuphazamiseka futhi ukukhishwa kwekhabhoni kuhlala kusendleleni yokukhula engasimami naphezu kokukhula kwamandla ahlanzekile.
I-COP28, ephethwe i-United Arab Emirates enobushiqela nenothe ngowoyela, yaphetha ngo-December 13, amazwe ayesayine ISivumelwano SaseParis ethembisa ukufaka isandla โekuhlukaneni nokusetshenziswa kwezinto ezimbiwa phansi ezimisweni zamandla kagesi.โ Umongameli we-COP28 uSultan Ahmed Al Jaber, inhloko ye-Abu Dhabi National Oil Company, uthe lokhu uhlelo lokusebenza oluqinile ukugcina u-1.5 degrees Celsius endaweni ongakwazi ukuyifinyelela.โ
I-Hogwash. Isivumelwano esifinyelelwe ku-COP28 akulona uhlelo, ingasaphathwa eyokuqina, yokugcina umhlaba ungaphuli umkhawulo wesimo sezulu ongu-1.5C obekwe yiSivumelwano saseParis ngo-2015. Uhlelo lokusebenza lubandakanya izinyathelo eziqondile, ezilinganisekayo nezinqunyelwe isikhathi. I Isivumelwano "sokusuka kumafutha ezinsalela ezimbiwa phansi ezinhlelweni zamandla" isithembiso sesimo sezulu esimela inqubekelaphambili ngale kwezithembiso zangaphambilini, kodwa kuseyisithembiso nje, okungukuthi, isithembiso esingabopheli ngokomthetho. Umkhankaso kaMongameli uJoe Biden ubugcwele izithembiso mayelana nokushintsha kwesimo sezulu kanye nobulungiswa bezemvelo kodwa, selokhu angena eWhite House, izinqubomgomo zakhe bezifana neze nezangempela. umfutho wamafutha ezinto ezimbiwa phansi. Amazwe anothile ahlulekile ukuletha izidingo izithembiso zokuxhasa ngemali ezizweni ezimpofu. Futhi amazwe amaningi ayehluleka ukuguqula lawo izibopho zesimo sezulu esenzweni. Kakhulu ngezithembiso.
Okwenezela inhlamba ekulimazeni, โkuyisu eliholwa isayensi,โ kusho yona kanye indoda kawoyela esanda kumemezela ukuthi kukhona โayikho isayensiโ ukuqeda amafutha ezinto ezimbiwa phansi. Isayensi icacile: Amafutha ezinsalela kufanele ahambe. Kepha igama elithi โi-phaseoutโ lenqatshwa izifundazwe ezifana neSaudi Arabia ne-United Arab Emirates kanye nabangcolisi bezulu ababili abakhulu emhlabeni - i-United States neChina.
Isivumelwano se-COP28 siphinde safaka embhalweni wokugcina ulimi olubuthaka ngokwedlulele mayelana nezibaseli ezimbiwa phansi kunazo zonke - amalahle. Amazwe asibona isidingo sokusheshisa โimizamo yokunciphisa amandla amalahle anganqamuki,โ okuwulimi olwalusetshenziswa ezingqungqutheleni zangaphambili zesimo sezulu emhlabeni, kodwa isivumelwano asisho lutho ekunciphiseni izimboni ezintsha zikagesi ngamalahle. I-China, empeleni, iqhubekela phambili nokwakhiwa kukagesi omusha ngamalahle njengoba ithembisa ukunciphisa ukusetshenziswa kwamalahle phakathi nohlelo lwayo lweminyaka emihlanu oluzayo. Ngaphezu kwalokho, igama elithi "ngokunganqamuki,โ uma kuziwa ezintweni zokubasa ezimbiwa phansi, โkusho ukungenzi lutho ukunciphisa isikhutha namanye amagesi abamba ukushisa ekushisweni kwamalahle, uwoyela negesi yemveloโ futhi empeleni kuhlotshaniswa ne ubuchwepheshe bokubanjwa kanye nokugcinwa kwekhabhoni.
Ngempela, okubonisa inqwaba yezintuba ezifakwe embhalweni wokugcina we-COP28 onikeza imboni kaphethiloli imizila emikhulu yokuphunyuka ukugcizelelwa kubuchwepheshe obungenabufakazi obufana nokubamba ikhabhoni nokusetshenziswa nokugcina. Ukusetshenziswa kobuchwepheshe obunjalo esikhathini esizayo okusolwa ukuthi kungcoliswa umoya kuzoqinisekisa kuphela ukuthi amafutha ezinsalela ahlala ekhona ikusasa elingenamkhawulo. Eqinisweni, njengephephandaba elihamba phambili kwezamabhizinisi eNdiya, I-Economic Times ukubeka, okuthathayo ku-COP28 ukuthi amafutha ezinto ezimbiwa phansi โlapha ukuhlala iminyaka.โ
Sekukonke, ukulebula umphumela wengqungquthela yesimo sezulu se-COP28 - isifungo esingabophi esisekelwe emagameni abuthaka esingabeki ngisho nemingcele ekukhiqizweni kukawoyela, igesi namalahle - isivumelwano "esingokomlando" simane nje siwubuwula.
Kodwa kukhona okwengeziwe ekuhlulekeni kwe-COP28. Isivumelwano sisebenze isikhwama sokulahlekelwa kanye nomonakalo ukusiza amazwe asengozini ukubhekana nomthelela omubi wokufudumala kwembulunga yonke, kodwa izithembiso zezimali ezilinganiselwa ku-$790 million. ukuwa kancane โyezigidigidi ekugcineni ezazidingeka ukuze kusekelwe amazwe asathuthuka ngokushintsha kwamandla ahlanzekile, esebenzisa izinhlelo zawo kazwelonke zesimo sezulu kanye nemizamo yokubhekana nezimo,โ ngokwe-UN. I izindleko zezomnotho yokulahlekelwa nomonakalo amazwe asathuthuka awudingayo kuye kwalinganiselwa ukuthi ungaphezu kwamaRandi ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-400 ngonyaka.
Sisemjahweni wokulwa nesikhathi sokumisa ukufudumala komhlaba. I-COP28 yehlulekile ukufika emcimbini ngendlela enkulu. "Lesi sivumelwano siqukethe izindawo ezinkulu zokubalekela imboni yokwanda kwegesi eyinhlekelele, ukwanda kwepulasitiki kanye nemikhonyovu yesimo sezulu eyingozi njengokubanjwa kwekhabhoni nokugcinwa," kusho uJean Su, umqondisi we-Energy Justice Programme eCentre for Biological Diversity, utshele. Ngaphandle. โFuthi yehluleka ukunikeza kokubili ukusekelwa kwezimali okudingekayo emazweni asathuthuka kanye nokuzinikela okuphusile okuvela emazweni acebile ukuthi aqhubekele phambili. Ukufaka โizibaseli ezimbiwa phansiโ esinqumweni sokugcina kuwukuphumelela, kodwa hhayi empini engokoqobo yokusinda kwempilo eMhlabeni.โ
I-COP28 kufanele ibonwe njengokwehluleka โkomlandoโ esikhundleni sesivumelwano โsomlando,โ sokushintsha umdlalo. Isivumelwano sezulu esiyingqophamlando sizoba yileso esihlanganisa izibopho ezingantengantengi zokuqeda uxhaso lwamafutha ezinsalela ezimbiwa phansi; ukuvimba amabhange ekuxhaseni ngezimali imiklamo emisha kaphethiloli, njengoba esefake izigidigidi zamadola kuwoyela, igesi namalahle kusukela kwamukelwa Isivumelwano saseParis; asule isikweletu sawo wonke amazwe anemali ephansi, manje asechitha izikhathi eziningi ekukhokheleni izikweletu kunokubhekana nemiphumela elimazayo yokufudumala kwembulunga yonke; kanye nokukhuthaza uhlelo oludidiyelwe lokuxhasa ngezimali Idili Entsha Yomhlaba Wonke.
Yebo, sikude kakhulu nokufeza lokho okulindelwe okukhulu. Eqinisweni, i-COP28 iqinisekise lokho ebesikwazi kakade, okuwukuthi "idiplomacy yezinto ezimbiwa phansi" ngeke ilindeleke ukuthi igqashule endleleni yebhizinisi njengenjwayelo yokushintsha kwesimo sezulu. Ubushoshovu buseyithemba lethu leqiniso. Yingakho kubaluleke kakhulu ukuthi umzabalazo wokuphoqa ohulumeni ukuthi balalele amazwi ezakhamuzi zabo ungagcini nje ngokuqhubeka kodwa ushube, njengoba iNgqungquthela ye-UN ye-UN yokuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu yowezi-2024 ingaphansi konyaka. (I-COP29 izobanjelwa e-Azerbaijan - nokho omunye umbuso we-autocratic kanye ne-fossil-fuel-fuel.) Ngempela, njengoba u-Su esho, "Amandla abantu asitholile lapha futhi umfutho unamandla kunangaphambili. Impi yokuqeda uwoyela, igesi namalahle manje kufanele iqhutshwe ezingeni lezwe njengoba i-United States ihamba phambili ngokumisa ukugunyazwa kwephrojekthi entsha kaphethiloli kanye nokubeka umnikelo oqinile onqunywe yizwe lonke we-COP29 yonyaka ozayo.โ
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Nikela