Any objective observer knows that the U.S. has lost the war in Iran, a war fought for Israel. It’s obvious that the U.S. had no overall plan; now it only reacts to Iranian moves and is reduced to endless, ineffective bombing and murdering school children.
In one sense, we’re seeing what would have occurred if the 12-day war in June 2025 had gone on longer, but with one exception. This time, the Russians and Chinese have provided the satellite intelligence that allows Iran’s targeting accuracy to be vastly improved, and we’re seeing the results on a daily basis.
My guess is that Trump’s military advisors are telling him that the situation is going from bad to worse, and no risk-free option remains. No doubt they’re also advising him that Iran is in the driver’s seat and there’s no way to gain control of the Strait of Hormuz. This explains Trump’s delusional threat of a “very bad future” for NATO if the Europeans don’t help out. After European leaders rebuffed his plea, Trump said: “You mean for 40 years we’re protecting you, and you don’t want to get involved in something that’s so minor?”
Trump is in a terrible bind and is flailing about in search of an off-ramp. He also knows that in future negotiations to end the war, Iran will be dictating the terms. Iran is in no hurry to end the conflict, and I suspect the knock-out punch will land when Israel’s defensive capabilities are eventually depleted. (BTW, anyone caught filming the damages done to Israel faces a five-year jail sentence). This begs a critical question: How long can the Greater Israel Project be sustained if the U.S. is forced out of West Asia? Further, if Israel continues to be pounded by Tehran’s extremely potent hypersonic missiles — and also believes this is its last chance to create a failed state in Iran — will it consider the nuclear option? Would elements in the Pentagon be able and willing to halt Netanyahu? We know that Iran could respond by hitting Israel’s Dimona nuclear reactor, and the resulting radioactivity would make the country uninhabitable for a thousand years. Given that eventuality, we could be looking at WWIII. Israel has between 250 and 300 nuclear warheads.
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