Fact: too many Republican candidates are clogging the political scene. Perhaps whatās needed is an American Hunger Games to cut the field to size. Each candidate could enter the wilderness with one weapon and one undocumented worker and see who wins. Unlike in the fictional Hunger Games for which contestants were plucked from 13 struggling, drab districts in the dystopian country of Panem, in the GOP version, everyone already lives in the Capitol. (Okay, Marco Rubio lives just outside it but is about to enter, and Donald Trump like some gilded President Snow inhabits a universe all his own with accommodations and ego to match.)
The six candidates chosen here (based on composite polling) have remarkably similar, unoriginal, inequality-inducing, trickle-down economic recommendations for the country: reduce taxes (mostly on those who donāt need it), āgrowā the economy like a sprouting weed, balance the budget by cutting as yet not-delineated social programs, overthrow Obamaās health-care legacy without breaking up the insurance companies, and (yawn)… well, you get the idea. If these six contenders were indeed Hunger Games tributes, their skills in the American political wilderness would run this way: Ben Carson inspires confusion; Marco Rubio conveys exaggerated humility; Ted Cruz exudes scorn; Jeb Bush can obliterate his personality at a whim; and Carly Fiorinaās sternness could slice granite. This leaves Donald Trump, endowed with the ultimate skill: self-promotion. As a tribute, he claims to believe that all our problems stem from China and Mexico, as well as Muslim terrorists and refugees (more or less the same thing, of course), and at present heās leading the Games.
When it comes to economic policy, it seems as if none of them will ever make it out of the Capitol and into the actual world of American reality.Ā Like Hillary Clinton, blessed by Wall Streetās apparently undying gratitude for her 9/11 heroism, none of the Republican contestants have outlined a plan of any sort to deal with, no less break the financial stronghold of the big banks on our world or reduce disproportionate corporate power over the economy, though in a crisis Cruz would āabsolutely notā bail them out again.Ā Ā Stumbling around in the wilderness, Carson at least offered a series of disjointed, semi-incomprehensible financial suggestions during the last Republican ādebate,ā when asked why he wouldnāt break banks up. “I don’t want to go in and tear anybody down,ā he said. āI mean that doesn’t help us, but what does help us is to stop tinkering around the edges and fix the problem.”
Rubio, already in top Hunger Games form, swears that itās recent regulations (not legacy elite decisions) that did the dirty deed. āThe government made [the banks] big by adding thousands and thousands of pages of regulations,” he said of Dodd-Frank legislation (which doesnāt actually alter Wall Street structurally in any way). In fact, in recent decades every major power grab or consolidation in American business, from banks to energy companies, resulted from bipartisan deregulation.
None of these big-money-backed candidates seem particularly concerned that another economic crisis could ever cripple the country, or have evidently even noticed that most Americans have yet to experience the present ārecovery.ā Ā None seem to realize that when the Federal Reserve winds down its cheap money policy and banks and companies are left to fend for themselves, more economic hell could break loose in the style of the 2007-2008 meltdown. Jeb Bush recently summed up the general 2016 Republican position on the economy in a single what-me-worry-style sentence: āWe shouldn’t have another financial crisis.ā āNuff said.
In the 2012 presidential election, Mitt Romneyās chances dwindled after he disparaged 47% of the country as so many leeches. Todayās Hunger Gamers have learned from his experience. Optics spell opportunity, so as a group theyāre shuffling the usual Republican-brand tax cuts for corporations and the wealthy in with selective recognition of the broader population and promises to kill all loopholes in some future utopian tax bill. None of them, of course, would consider raising the minimum wage to put more money in the pockets of workers before tax-time hits. Even old Henry Ford knew the power of wages when, early in the last century, he strengthened his car empire by doubling the then-prevailing minimum wage for his workers to $5 a day — enough for them not only to save up and buy his Model-Ts, but also boost productivity.
The present set of Hunger Gamers could invoke Republican President Teddy Rooseveltās trust-busting ire, or President Dwight D. Eisenhowerās willingness to fund vast national construction projects, or even (to reach into the distant past) President Herbert Hooverās initial attempts to pass what became, under Democrat Franklin Delano Roosevelt, the 1933 Glass-Steagall Act that separated deposit-taking from speculation at banks. But to be realistic, none of them belong to the Republican Party as it once existed.Ā They all live in an American Panem and so feel no compunctions about promoting the idea that corporations contributing ever less to the federal till would Make America Great Again.
Now, letās send those six candidates into that wilderness, weapons in hand, one at a time, and while weāre at it, examine their minor differences by checking out their campaign websites to see what kind of games we can expect in a coming Republican era of āgood times.ā
Ben Carson
If you look through the index of Ben Carson’s latest bestseller, A More Perfect Union, you wonāt even find the words āeconomy,ā ābanks,ā or āWall Street.āĀ Instead, his campaign slogan, āHeal, Inspire, Revive,ā could headline a yoga retreat. His position as the Republican co-frontrunner or runner-up (depending on which polls you look at) relies on his soft-spoken, non-politician persona, not his vague economic ideas that flash by in a chameleon-like fashion.
Yes, he was a brilliant neurosurgeon, but the tenacity and skills required to become a gifted medical practitioner have not translated well into presidential-style economic policies.Ā To the extent that he has a policy at all, itās a shopworn version of the twenty-first-century Republican usuals: ratifying a balanced budget amendment to the Constitution āto restore fiscal responsibility,ā introducing a flat tax, not raising the minimum wage, yada, yada, yada.Ā In a Washington Post op-ed last year, he recounted his motherās days as a ādomestic in the homes of wealthy people who were generous to herā and would slip young Carson and his brother āsignificant monetary incentivesā in return for good grades. One even loaned him a luxury convertible. With such employers — and the incredibly rich are a well-known generous bunch, at least when it comes to supporting Republican presidential candidates (just 158 families have contributed more than half the money to this election so far, mostly to Republicans) — who needs a government-declared minimum wage?
Regarding taxes, Carson considers the 74,000-page tax code āan abomination.ā And who would argue otherwise? But like his various opponents, he’s not about to point out that it was largely crafted by the representatives of mega-corporations, not Wal-Mart workers at meet-ups with senators. Heās for a flat tax of 10% with no exemptions for the poor, based on biblical economics 101. Maybe people who donāt produce bumper crops should just pray for a better lot.
He would conveniently cut the official corporate tax rate from 35% (the average effective tax rate is 27.9% but the biggest, brightest companies donāt even approach that amount) to between 15% and 20%, the definition of corporate manna from heaven.Ā He would also allow companies to bring their foreign profits back to the U.S. completely tax-free if they would even… pretty, pretty please… consider allocating 10% of them to āfinance enterprise zonesā in major cities. And so it goes in Carsonland.
Best bet on his campaign website: A $25 bumper sticker that says #IAMACHRISTIAN, proof that heās eager to channel his inner evangelical Katniss.
Donald Trump
Trump actually brought up President Dwight Eisenhower recently, but only for Operation Wetback, his grim Mexican immigrant deportation program. No I-like-Ike mention was made of his funding of the interstate highway system or the way he strengthened banking regulations.
The Donald lists five core positions on his site, including the two economic pillars of his campaign: āU.S.-China trade reformā and ātax reform,ā both of which would, of course, āmake America great again.ā This may already sound a bit repetitively familiar to you, but he wants to reduce the corporate tax rate to 15% because it āwould be 10 percentage points below Chinaās and 20 points below our current burdensome rate that pushes companies and jobs offshore.ā Ā Given that our biggest companies already pay far less than that āburdensomeā rate, can there be any question that lowering it further would produce more generous CEOs and slay dreaded China at the same time?
Like President Snow, Trump would start aggressively and only get more so, economically speaking. He would āattackā the national debt and deficitĀ by eliminating government waste, fraud, and abuse, and āgrowā the economy xenophobically by doing in local Mexicans and distant Chinese, and all of this cutting and slashing would, like a Chia Pet, make the economy sprout even as tax revenues were savaged.Ā Or, even if it isnāt one of his five core positions, he could pull a genuine Snow and get rid of old-fashioned-style government, leaving Americans officially beholden to an oligarch.
In another piece of (black) magic, his campaign website assures readers that cutting the deficit and reducing our debt would also stop China from āblackmail[ing] us with our own Treasury bonds.ā No matter that China actually lent us money to run our government and bolster our financial system, and that a thank-you note might be in order (on paper made in China, of course).
When it comes to tax reform, Trumpās āpopulistā program would remove 75 million households from the income tax rolls and provide them, so he claims, with a simple one-page form to send the IRS, saying āI win.āĀ Though he would cut the current seven tax brackets to four — 0%, 10%, 20%, and 25% — itās his 15% corporate tax rate that trumps the field. Rubio wouldĀ only chop it to 25%, BushĀ to 20%, Cruz to 16%, and Carson… who knows? Various estimates suggest that Trumpās plan would lead to a staggering federal revenue loss (so lucky for us that, in a Trump presidency, the rich would undoubtedly be so grateful that their generosity would soar beyond imagining). The nonpartisan Citizens for Tax Justice computed the cost of his plan atĀ $12 trillionĀ over 10 years.Ā So donāt expect any Eisenhower-esque national building campaigns (other than that ābeautifulā wall on the Mexican border).
Best gimmick on his campaign website: A $15 Trump dog sweater modeled by the saddest damn wiener dog ever. Perhaps its mother was a deported Chihuahua.
Marco Rubio
Rubioās slogan āa new American centuryā couldnāt be grander, perhaps to compensate for the lackluster version of economic policy at his campaign website.Ā Itās certainly not the sort of thing youād expect from someone aspiring to be president of the worldās largest economy. Despite that, rest assured that heās had economics and success on his mind 24/7.Ā After all, Goldman Sachs is now his top contributor and his super PACs are on a run, too, including the rap-inspired āBaby Got Pacā just launched by multimillionaire John Jordan.
And in true Hunger Games fashion — when the āoddsā head in a tributeās favor, the patrons and gifts begin rolling in — Rubio just bagged Republican mega-donor billionaire Frank VanderSloot. Mitt Romneyās former national finance co-chairman, VanderSloot joins a growing roster of Rubio billionaires, including hedge-fund moguls Paul Singer and Cliff Asness.
āMarco Rubio is the brightest and most capable candidate,” wrote VanderSloot of his new political buddy. Of the others he and his brain trust considered, he added, “Jeb simply does not have the leadership skills necessary to unite the people behind him”; Carson lacks āthe international knowledge or skill set”; Cruz and Trump are āsimply not electable in a general election” (no billionaire-envy there); and Fiorina, his second choice, āsimply isnāt resonating with the voters.ā
Rubioās tax plan, the ācornerstoneā of his economic policy, would — you wonāt be surprised to learn — reduce the number of tax brackets from seven to three and eliminate taxes in ways particularly beneficial to the billionaire (especially hedge-fund billionaire) class, including the estate tax and taxes on capital gains and dividends. For the broad population, Rubio includes family tax cuts. According to anĀ analysisĀ by the Tax Policy Center, his plan would be a bargain compared to Trumpās, costing federal government coffers a mere $2.4 trillion or more in receipts over the next decade. As a byproduct, his program is essentially guaranteed to spark a new round of financial speculation, but donāt for a second let the 2007-2008 meltdown cross your mind since, as every Republican knows, with a Marco Rubio, Donald Trump, or Ben Carson in the Oval Office that canāt happen.
Best gimmick on his campaign website: You can āfall into campaign seasonā by ordering a āMarco Poloā made-in-the-USA shirt for $48 in patriotic red, white, or blue naturally! For a mere $500 extra, you can personally have the honor of buying Rubio a āplane ticketā (perhaps to meet and greet his next billionaire).
Ted Cruz
The Cruz campaign website offers a hodge-podge of semi-incoherent economic salesmanship. His tax plan, or what he likes to call (without the slightest justification) the ānext American revolution,ā promises to āreignite growth in our economy.ā HisĀ āsimple flat taxā (yep, another of those!) would abolish the Internal Revenue Service as well.Ā Personal income tax brackets would go from seven to… count āem!… one at a 10% rate across the board and the corporate income tax would be replaced by a flat tax of 16%. And it should be taken for granted that the American economy would soar into the stratosphere!
Cruzās tax code would be so āsimple with a capital-Sā that it would make Donald Trumpās look complicated. A postcard or phone app would suffice for individual and family filings. There would be no tax on profits earned abroad and it almost goes without saying that Obamacare taxes would die a strangulated death. Loopholes for businesses would apparently go, too.
Cruz claims his simple flat tax will elevate the gross domestic product, increase wages by 12.2%, create nearly five million new jobs, and undoubtedly fill the world with unicorns. Ā It would also wipe out between $768Ā billion and $3.6 trillion in federal tax receipts over 10Ā years.
Best gimmick on his campaign website: For $55 you can get a bad-boy poster of Cruz sporting a Sons of Anarchy look (tattoos, cigarette in mouth, etc.) captioned āBlacklisted and Loving It.ā
Jeb Bush
Jeb! has by far the sleekest web page. He and his donor entourage took the āpresidential conceptā seriously with a look that seems to have been stolen directly from āthe Capitolā in the Hunger Games.
Its economic section excoriates the tax code for being ārigged with multiple carve-outs for favored industries.ā He blasts Obamaās economic policies for leading to ālow growth, crony capitalism, and easy debt.ā Yet, under Jebās governorship, Florida’s debt escalated from $15 billion to more than $23 billion. After his term, the housing-bubble that had inflated the stateās coffers burst big time, and Florida’s economy under-performed much of the country during the financial crisis. While homeowners statewide went underwater, he landed a multi-million dollar consultancy gig with… gulp!… Lehman Brothers.
By now, you wonāt be shocked to learn that Bushās plan would cut tax brackets from seven to three: 28%, 25% and 10%, and that he would cut the corporate tax rate from 35% to 20%, five points below Chinaās. (These days, if youāre a Republican, youāve got to stick it to China.)
While Jeb would not rein in Wall Street (for all the obvious and already well-documented reasons), right now it looks as if heās not going to have a chance to not rein in anything.Ā While his PR team maintains āJeb can fix it,ā invigorating his wilting campaign will require more than a bow and arrow and a mockingbird.
Best gimmick on his campaign web page: āThe Guaca Bowleā for $75 because who doesnāt need one? (Bush family guac recipe not included.)
Carly Fiorina
Fiorinaās web page doesnāt offer a lot of economic anything. Itās more like a personality infomercial. For her official positions, you need to watch video clips of her TV appearances from CBS This Morning to late night talk shows and — if youāre starting to get bored — just imagine Stanley Tucci as Hunger Games host of festivities Caesar Flickerman narrating.
Fiorina calls for āzero-based budgetingā because āzeroā sounds so much cleverer than ābalancedā and touts ad nauseam a three-page tax plan (perhaps the current one in a microscopic font, since we donāt actually know the details). The repetition of simple concepts to the masses seems to be her modus operandi.
Best gimmick on the Carly for America Super PAC website: For only $26 you can get a āHillary Who?ā infant one-piece, the perfect gift for any Republican baby.
How Corporations Really Pay Taxes
Despite the prominence of tax cuts in the policies of the top six Republican candidates, even the venerable Brookings Institution found that they have a minimal effect on economic growth.Ā In addition, when you consider all the promised corporate cuts, you should know that corporations already donāt contribute much.
According to Citizens for Tax Justice, between 2008 and 2012, 26 of the 288 Fortune 500 firms (consistently profitable in those years) managed to pay nothing, nada, zero in federal income tax.Ā The 288 firms collectively paid an effective federal income tax rate of 19.4%, and a third of them paid an effective rate of less than 10%. Five companies — Wells Fargo, AT&T, IBM, General Electric, and Verizon — also bagged over $77 billion of the $364 billion in tax breaks doled out in those years. Extra jobs didn’t follow. Think of this crew as the real winners of the American Hunger Games in this period.
For 2014, for instance, Goldman Sachs avoided forking over federal income taxes on almost half of its $6.8 billion in U.S. profits, paying an effective tax rate of 18.6%. Between 2010 and 2012, due to tax breaks associated with executive pay, Fortune 500 companies saved an extra $27 billion in federal and state taxes. Thatās a lot of dosh to use for Super PAC support.
In 2012, the Democrats blasted candidate Mitt Romneyās tax plan as a giveaway to the rich. This time around, our six tributes-cum-candidates are taking no such chances.Ā Theyāre making sure to throw crumbs to the middle and working classes, even as they offer more caviar to the wealthy and corporations. Depending on the candidate and plan, the overall loss of national revenue will range from an estimated $1.6 trillion (even factoring in growth that may never happen) to $12 trillion, but will be a stunning amount.
Perhaps with such a field of candidates, the classic Hunger Games line will need to be adapted: āLet the games begin and may the oddity of it all be ever in your favor.ā Certainly, there has never been a stranger or more unsettling Republican campaign for the presidential nomination or one more filled with economic balderdash and showmanship.Ā Of course, at some point in 2016, weāll be at that moment when President Snow says to Katniss Everdeen, “Make no mistake, the game is coming to its end.” One of these candidates or a rival Democrat will actually enter the Oval Office and when that happens, both parties will be left with guilt on their hands and all the promises that will have to be fulfilled to repay their super-rich supporters (Bernie aside). And that, of course, is when the real Hunger Games are likely to begin for most Americans.Ā Those of us in the outer districts can but hope for revolution.
Nomi Prins, a TomDispatch regular, is the author of six books, a speaker, and a distinguished senior fellow at the non-partisan public policy institute Demos. Her most recent book isĀ All the Presidents’ Bankers: The Hidden Alliances That Drive American PowerĀ (Nation Books). She is a former Wall Street executive. Special thanks go to researcher Craig Wilson for his superb work on this piece.
This article first appeared on TomDispatch.com, a weblog of the Nation Institute, which offers a steady flow of alternate sources, news, and opinion from Tom Engelhardt, long time editor in publishing, co-founder of the American Empire Project, author of The End of Victory Culture, as of a novel, The Last Days of Publishing. His latest book is Shadow Government: Surveillance, Secret Wars, and a Global Security State in a Single-Superpower World (Haymarket Books).
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1 Comment
This excellent deconstruction of contemporary Republican “economics” is both humorous and fairly detailed, but lacks much in what it omits.
First, it totally disappears military and other security state expenditures. It is incomprehensible that somebody as bright and accomplished as Prins could offer an analysis that effectively ignores 50% or so of “our economy,” by accident. So what’s up with that?
Second, except for a few references that demonstrate that Prins (correctly) considers HRC as just another Republican, there is no reference to the majority wing of the corporate duopoly.
I don’t think it’s a coincidence that these omissions fit in with the Sanders campaign. His efforts to separate the economy into foreign and domestic realms has put his campaign in a box that he can’t get out of. As does his refusal to break cleanly with the Dems.
Also, because of this false separation, Sanders can’t make his financial numbers work. Prins knows numbers.