According to leading American and British intelligence experts, a declassified Pentagon report confirms that the West accelerated support to extremist rebels in Syria, despite knowing full well the strategy would pave the way for the emergence of the āIslamic Stateā (ISIS).
The experts who have spoken out include renowned government whistleblowers such as the Pentagonās Daniel Ellsberg, the NSAās Thomas Drake, and the FBIās Coleen Rowley, among others.
Their remarks demonstrate the fraudulent nature of claims by two other former officials, the CIAās Michael Morell and the NSAās John Schindler, both of whom attempt to absolve the Obama administration of responsibility for the policy failures exposed by the DIA documents.
Foreseeing ISIS
As I reported on May 22nd, the US Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) document obtained by Judicial Watch under Freedom of Information confirms that the US intelligence community foresaw the rise of ISIS three years ago, as a direct consequence of the support to extremist rebels in Syria.
The August 2012 āInformation Intelligence Reportā (IIR) reveals that the overwhelming core of the Syrian insurgency at that time was dominated by a range of Islamist militant groups, including al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI). It warned that the āsupporting powersā to the insurgencyāāāidentified in the document as the West, Gulf states, and Turkeyāāāwanted to see the emergence of a āSalafist Principalityā in eastern Syria to āisolateā the Assad regime.
The document also provided an extraordinarily prescient prediction that such an Islamist quasi-statelet, backed by the regionās Sunni states, would amplify the risk of the declaration of an āIslamic Stateā across Iraq and Syria. The DIA report even anticipated the fall of Mosul and Ramadi.
Divide and rule
Last week, legendary whistleblower Daniel Ellsberg, the former career Pentagon officer and US military analyst who leaked Pentagon papers exposing White House lies about the Vietnam War, described my Insurge report on the DIA document as āa very important story.ā
Daniel Ellsberg, the former US military analyst who leaked the Pentagon Papers in 1971, revealing how the US public had been misled about the Vietnam War.
āThey were not only as they claimed supporting moderate groups, who were losing members to the more extremist groups, but that they were directly supporting the extremist groups. And they were predicting that this support would result in an Islamic State organization, an ISIS or ISILā They were encouraging it, regarding it as a positive development, because it was anti-Assad, Assad being supported by Russia, but also interestingly Chinaā and Iranā So we have China, Russia and Iran backing Assad, and the US, starting out saying Assad must goā What he [Nafeez Ahmed] is talking about, the DIA report, is extremely significant. It fits into a general framework that Iām aware of, and sounds plausible to me.ā
Ellsberg also noted that āitās pretty well knownā in the intelligence community that Saudi Arabia sponsors Islamist terrorists to this day:
āItās kind of a deal that the Saudis will support various Islamic extremists, all around the world, and the deal is that they [extremists] will not try to overthrow the corrupt, alcohol-drinking clique in Saudi Arabia.ā
Ellsberg, who was a former senior analyst at RAND Corp, also agreed with the relevance of a 2008 US Army-commissioned RAND report, quoted in my Insurge story, and also examined in-depth for Middle East Eye.
The US Army-funded RAND report advocated a range of policy scenarios for the Middle East, including a ādivide and ruleā strategy to play off Sunni and Shiāa factions against each other, which Ellsberg describes as āstandard imperial policyā for the US.
The RAND report even confirmed (p. 113) that its ādivide and ruleā strategy was already being executed in Iraq at the time:
āToday in Iraq such a strategy is being used a tactical level, as the United States now forms temporary alliances with nationalist insurgent groups that it had been fighting for four yearsā providing carrots in the form of weapons and cash. In the past, these nationalists have cooperated with al-Qaeda against US forces.ā
The confirmed activation of this divide-and-rule strategy perhaps explains why the self-defeating US approach in Syria is fanning the flames of both sides: simultaneously allying with states like Turkey who have continued to covertly sponsor ISIS, while working with Assad through the Russians to fight ISIS. Ellsberg added:
āAs Assad is the main opponent of ISIS, we are covertly coordinating our airstrikes against ISIS with Assad. So are we against Assad, or not? Itās ambivalentā I think that Obama and everybody around him is clear that they do not any longer as theyāve been saying want Assad to leave power. I donāt believe that that is their intention anymore, as they believe anyone who succeeds Assad would be far worse.ā
If true, Ellsbergās analysis exposes the deep-rooted hypocrisy of the previous campaign against Assad, the current campaign against ISIS, and why both appear destined for failure.
Frankenstein script
Coleen Rowley, retired FBI Special Agent described my report on the DIA document as āexcellent.ā
Former FBI Special Agent Coleen Rowley testified before the Senate and 9/11 Commission on how FBI Head Quarters in Washington DC had sabotaged investigations that could have uncovered the 9/11 plot
Rowley, who was selected as TIME āPerson of the Yearā in 2002 after revealing how pre-9/11 intelligence was ignored by superiors at the FBI, said of the document:
āItās like the mad power-hungry doctor who created Frankenstein, only to have his monster turn against him. Itās hard to feel sorry when the insane doctor gets his due. But in our case, that script is constantly repeating. The quest for āfull spectrum dominanceā and blindness of exceptionalism seems to mean we are doomed to keep repeating the āCharlie Wilsonās Frankenstein Warā scriptā The various neocon warmongers and military industrial complex, most of them inept Peter Principles, just donāt care.ā
Also commenting on the declassified Pentagon report, former NSA senior executive Thomas Drakeāāāthe whistleblower who inspired Edward Snowdenāāācondemned āthe Westās role in ISIS and threat of āviolent extremistsā, justifying surveillance and libercide at home.ā

Thomas Drake, former NSA senior executive, who leaked information in 2006 about the NSAās corrupt and dysfunction Trailblazer project.
Alastair Crooke, a former senior MI6 officer who spent three decades at the agency, said yesterday that the DIA document provides clear corroboration that the US was covertly pursuing a strategy to drive an extremist Salafi āwedgeā between Iran and its Arab allies
Alistair Crooke worked for MI6 for three decades at a senior level, specialising in the politics of the Muslim world. He went on to advise the EU on Middle East foreign policy, and is currently founding director of the Conflicts Forum in Beirut.
The strategy was, Crooke confirms, standard thinking in the Western intelligence establishment for about a decade.
āThe idea of breaking up the large Arab states into ethnic or sectarian enclaves is an old Ben Gurion ācanard,ā and splitting Iraq along sectarian lines has been Vice President Bidenās recipe since the Iraq war,ā wrote Crooke, who had coordinated British assistance to the Afghan mujahideen in the 1980s. After his long MI6 stint, he became Middle East advisor to the European Unionās foreign policy chief (1997ā2003).
āBut the idea of driving a Sunni āwedgeā into the landline linking Iran to Syria and to Hezbollah in Lebanon became established Western group think in the wake of the 2006 war, in which Israel failed to de-fang Hezbollah,ā continued Crooke. āThe response to 2006, it seemed to Western powers, was to cut off Hezbollah from its sources of weapons supply from Iranā
āā In short, the DIA assessment indicates that the āwedgeā concept was being given new life by the desire to pressure Assad in the wake of the 2011 insurgency launched against the Syrian state. āSupporting powersā effectively wanted to inject hydraulic fracturing fluid into eastern Syria (radical Salafists) in order to fracture the bridge between Iran and its Arab allies, even at the cost of this āfrackingā opening fissures right down inside Iraq to Ramadi. (Intelligence assessments purpose is to provide āa view’āāānot to describe or prescribe policy. But it is clear that the DIA reportsā āwarningsā were widely circulated and would have been meshed into the policy consideration.)
āBut this āviewā has exactly come about. It is fact. One might conclude then that in the policy debate, the notion of isolating Hezbollah from Iran, and of weakening and pressurizing President Assad, simply trumped the common sense judgment that when you pump highly toxic and dangerous fracturing substances into geological formations, you can never entirely know or control the consequencesā So, when the GCC demanded a āpriceā for any Iran deal (i.e. massing āfrackingā forces close to Aleppo), the pass had been already partially been sold by the US by 2012, when it did not object to what the āsupporting powersā wanted.ā
Intel shills
Crookeās analysis of the DIA report shows that it is irrelevant whether or not āthe Westā should be included in the āsupporting powersā described by the report as specifically wanting a āSalafist Principalityā in eastern Syria. Either way, the report groups āthe West, Gulf countries and Turkeyā as supporting the Syrian insurgency togetherāāāhighlighting that the Gulf states and Turkey operated in alliance with the US, Britain, and other Western powers.
The observations of intelligence experts Ellsberg, Rowley, and Drake add further weight to Crookeās analysis. They come in addition to comments I had previously received on the DIA document from former MI5 counter-terrorism officer, Annie Machon, and former counter-terrorism intelligence officer, Charles Shoebridge.
The comments undermine the recent claims ofdisgraced US national security commentator, John Schindler, a retired NSA intelligence officer, to the effect that the August 2012 DIA report is āalmost incomprehensible,ā āso heavily redacted that its difficult to say much meaningful about it,ā āNothing special here, not one bit,ā āroutine,ā āa single data point,ā and so on.
Schindler cites the DIAās use of āCurveball’āāāthe Iraqi informant who fabricated claims about Saddam Husseinās weapons of mass destruction (WMD)āāāas evidence of the agencyās āless than stellar reputation.ā But this misrepresents the fact noted by the CIAās Valerie Plame Wilson that āit was widely known [in the intelligence community] that CURVEBALL was not a credible source and that there were serious problems with his reporting.ā
As Iāve documented elsewhere, the WMD threat mythology was not the outcome of an āintelligence failureā, as Schindler and his ilk like to claim, but a consequence of the corruption and politicization of intelligence under the influence of dubious vested interests.
Also contrary to Schindlerās misinformation, an IIR provides raw intelligence data from human sources (HUMINT), not simply rumour, gossip or opinion. Before wider distribution, the IIR is vetted to determine whether it is worthy of dissemination to the intelligence community. IIRs then provide a source basis for evaluation, interpretation, analysis and integration with other information.
Far from justifying the dismissal of the relevance of the declassified DIA documents, this shows that urgent questions must be asked:
What happened to this raw intelligence data, described by six US UK intelligence experts as providing damning confirmation of how Western strategy led to the rise of ISIS?
And why did it not lead to a change in policy, despite DIA analystsā clear warning of the outgrowth of an ISIS-entity from Western alliesā desire to see a āSalafist Principalityā in the regionāāāa warning which was, in hindsight, quite accurate?
Are intel critics traitors?
Schindler previously characterized NSA whistleblower Edward Snowden as a traitor and āpawnā of Americaās adversaries.ā
He now declares that those who cite the DIA report as proof the intelligence community āknew more about the rise of the Islamic State than they let onā are at best āfools; at worst, theyāre deceivers who have lied to the American people.ā
On the contrary, six decorated former senior US and British intelligence officials, many with direct experience of IIRs and their function, agree that the DIA report provides significant insight into the kind of intelligence available to the US intelligence community at the time.
Yet for Schindler, it seems, Ellsberg, Drake, Rowley, Crooke, Machon and Shoebridge are all, effectively, traitors simply for lending their expertise to public understanding of the newly declassified documents.
As Marcy Wheeler points out in Salon, the large corpus of secret DIA documents obtained by Judicial Watch demonstrates, at the least, that:
āThe Intelligence Community (IC) knew that AQI had ties to the rebels in Syria; they knew our Gulf and Turkish allies were happy to strengthen Islamic extremists in a bid to oust Assad; and CIA officers in Benghazi (at a minimum) watched as our allies armed rebels using weapons from Libya. And the IC knew that a surging AQI might lead to the collapse of Iraq. Thatās not the same thing as creating ISIS. But it does amount to doing little or nothing while our allies had a hand in creating ISIS. All of which ought to raise real questions about why weāre still allied with countries willfully empowering terrorist groups then, and how seriously they plan to fight those terrorist groups now. Because while the CIA may not have deliberately created ISIS, it sure seems to have watched impassively as our allies helped to do so.ā
However, Wheeler overlooks that the reliance on foreign allies is a standard proxy war strategyāāāas Ellsberg explained in his interviewāāāused by the covert operations arm of the US government to guarantee āplausible deniability.ā
The August 2012 DIA document further corroborates this by repeatedly pointing out that the support to the Syrian insurgency from its allies was itself backed by āthe Westāāāādespite awareness of their intent to establish an extremist Salafi political entity.
While the DIA document was, indeed, just one data-point, analyzing it in context with the other DIA reports along with incontrovertible facts in the public record, establishes that the Pentagon was complicit in its alliesā support of Islamist terrorists, despite recognizing this could create an āIslamic Stateā in Iraq and Syria.
These revelations show that the real traitors are not the courageous whistleblowers who sacrifice everything to speak out on behalf of the public interest, but shameless shills like Schindler and Morell who willfully sanitize a dysfunctional and dangerous ānational securityā system from legitimate public scrutiny.
This exclusive is being released for free in the public interest, and was enabled by crowdfunding. Iād like to thank my amazing community of patrons for their support, which gave me the opportunity to work on this in-depth investigation. If you appreciated this story, please support independent, investigative journalism for the global commons via Patreon.com, where you can donate as much or as little as you like.
DrĀ Nafeez AhmedĀ is an investigative journalist, bestselling author and international security scholar. A former Guardian writer, he writes the āSystem Shiftā column for VICEās Motherboard, and is also a columnist for Middle East Eye. He is the winner of a 2015 Project Censored Award for Outstanding Investigative Journalism for his Guardian work.
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