I’mĀ skilled at eluding the fetal crouch of despairābecause Iāve been working on climate change for thirty years, Iāve learned to parcel out my angst, to keep my distress under control. But, in the past few months, Iāve more often found myself awake at night with true fear-for-your-kids anguish. This spring, we set another high mark for carbon dioxide in the atmosphere: four hundred and fifteen parts per million, higher than it has been in many millions of years. The summer began with the hottest June ever recorded, and then July became the hottest month ever recorded. The United Kingdom, France, and Germany, which have some of the worldās oldest weather records, all hit new high temperatures, and then the heat moved north, until most of Greenland was melting and immense Siberian wildfires were sending great clouds of carbon skyward. At the beginning of September, Hurricane DorianĀ stalled above the Bahamas, where it unleashed what one meteorologist called āthe longest siege of violent, destructive weather ever observedā on our planet. The scientific warnings of three decades ago are the deadly heat advisories and flash-flood alerts of the present, and, as for the future, we have hard deadlines. Last fall, the worldās climate scientists said that, if we are to meet the goals we set in the 2015 Paris climate accordāwhich would still raise the mercury fifty per cent higher than it has already climbedāweāll essentially need to cut our use of fossil fuels in half by 2030 and eliminate them altogether by mid-century. In a world of Trumps and Putins and Bolsonaros and the fossil-fuel companies that back them, that seems nearly impossible. Itās notĀ technologicallyĀ impossible: in the past decade, the worldās engineers have dropped the price of solar and wind power by ninety and seventy per cent, respectively. But weāre moving far too slowly to exploit the opening for rapid change that this feat of engineering offers. Hence the 2Ā a.m.Ā dread.
Thereās good news, too: as the crisis grows more obvious, far more people are joining in the fight. In the year since the scientists imposed that deadline, weāve seen the rise of theĀ Green New Deal, the cheeky exploits of Extinction Rebellion, and the global spread of the school strikes started by the Swedish teen-agerĀ Greta Thunberg. It seems that there are finally enough people to make an impact. The question is, what levers can we pull that might possibly create change within the time that we need it to happen?
Some of us have begun to change our own lives, pledging to fly less and to eat lower on the food chain. But, whatever our intentions, weāre each of us currently locked into burning a fair amount of fossil fuel: if thereās no train that goes to your destination, you canāt take it. Othersāactually, often the same peopleāare working to elect greener candidates, lobbying to pass legislation, litigating cases headed for the Supreme Court, or going to jail to block the construction of pipelines.
These are all important efforts, but we need to do more, for the simple reason that they may not pay off fast enough. Climate change is a timed test, one of the first that our civilization has faced, and with each scientific report the window narrows. By contrast, cultural changeāwhat we eat, how we liveāoften comes generationally. Political change usually involves slow compromise, and thatās in a working system, not a dysfunctional gridlock such as the one we now have in Washington. And, since we face a planetary crisis, cultural and political change would have to happen in every other major country, too.
But what if there were an additional lever to pull, one that could work both quickly and globally? One possibility relies on the idea that political leaders are not the only powerful actors on the planetāthat those who hold most of the money also have enormous power, and that their power could be exercised in a matter of months or even hours, not years or decades. I suspect that the key to disrupting the flow of carbon into the atmosphere may lie in disrupting the flow of money to coal and oil and gas.
Following the money isnāt a new idea. Seven years ago, 350.org (the climate campaign that I co-founded, a decade ago, and still serve as a senior adviser) helped launch a global movement to persuade the managers of college endowments, pension funds, and other large pots of money to sell their stock in fossil-fuel companies. It has become the largest such campaign in history: funds worth more than eleven trillion dollars have divested some or all of their fossil-fuel holdings. And it has been effective: when Peabody Energy, the largest American coal company, filed for bankruptcy, in 2016, it cited divestment as one of the pressures weighing on its business, and, this year, Shell called divestment a āmaterial adverse effectā on its performance. The divestment campaign has brought home the starkest fact of the global-warming era: that the industry has in its reserves five times as much carbon as the scientific consensus thinks we can safely burn. The pressure has helped cost the industry much of its social license; one religious institution after another has divested from oil and gas, and Pope Francis has summoned industry executives to the Vatican to tell them that they must leave carbon underground. But this, too, seemsĀ to be happening in too-slow motion. The fossil-fuel industry may be going down, but itās going down fighting. Which makes sense, because itās the fossil-fuel industryāit really only knows how to do one thing.
So now consider extending the logic of the divestment fight one ring out, from the fossil-fuel companies to the financial system that supports them. Consider a bank like, say, JPMorgan Chase, which is Americaās largest bank and the worldās most valuable by market capitalization. In the three years since the end of the Paris climate talks, Chase has reportedly committed a hundred and ninety-six billion dollars in financing for the fossil-fuel industry, much of it to fund extreme new ventures: ultra-deep-sea drilling, Arctic oil extraction, and so on. In each of those years, ExxonMobil, by contrast, spent less than three billion dollars on exploration, research, and development. A hundred and ninety-six billion dollars is larger than theĀ market valueĀ of BP; it dwarfs that of the coal companies or the frackers. By this measure, Jamie Dimon, the C.E.O. of JPMorgan Chase, is an oil, coal, and gas baron almost without peer.
But hereās the thing: fossil-fuel financing accounts for only about seven per cent of Chaseās lending and underwriting. The bank lends to everyone else, tooāto people who build bowling alleys and beach houses and breweries. And, if the world were to switch decisively to solar and wind power, Chase would lend to renewable-energy companies, too. Indeed, it already does, though on a much smaller scale. (A spokesperson for Chase said that the bank has committed to facilitate two hundred billion dollars in ācleanā financing by 2025, but did not specify where the money will go. The bank also pointed out that it has installed 2,570 solar panels at branches in California and New Jersey.) The same is true of the asset-management and insurance industries: without them, the fossil-fuel companies would almost literally run out of gas, but BlackRock and Chubb could survive without their business. Itās possible to imagine these industries, given that the world is now in existential danger, quickly jettisoning their fossil-fuel business. Itās notĀ easyĀ to imagineācapitalism is not noted for surrendering sources of revenue. But, then, the Arctic ice sheet is not noted for melting.
The last minutes of a football game are different from the rest; if you are far enough behind, you dispense with caution. Since gaining a few yards cannot help you, you resort to more desperate, lower-percentage plays. You heave the ball and you hope, and, every once in a while, you win. So a small group of activists has begun probing the financial industry, looking for chances to toss the kind of Hail Mary pass that could yet win this game. The odds are definitely long, but just talking with these groups has begun to lift my despair.
Banking
Around the turn of the century, a California-based environmental group called Rainforest Action Network (ran) was trying to figure out how to slow down the deforestation of the Amazon. It found that Citigroup, then the largest bank on earth, was lending to many of the projects that cut down trees for pastureland, and so it ran a campaign that featured celebrities cutting up their Citi credit cards. Eventually, Citigroup joined with other banks to set up the Equator Principles, which the participants call a ārisk management frameworkā designed to limit the most devastating lending.
At some point in the campaign,Ā ranĀ started paying twenty-four thousand dollars annually to rent a Bloomberg terminal, the financial-information monitor that sits on any brokerās desk, allowing her to track stock prices, bond issues, and deals of every type. āOur Bloomberg rep is always flabbergasted when he visits us,ā Alison Kirsch, a climate-and-energy researcher withĀ ran, told me. āEssentially, we use it backwards.ā The terminal will spit out the current league tables, which rank loan volume: showing, for example, which banks are lending the most money to railroad builders or to copper minersāor to fossil-fuel companies. āThe banks all want to be at the top of those tables,ā Kirsch said. āItās how they keep score.ā ButĀ ranĀ turns the tables upside down. Every year, after six months of detailed analysis, it publishes a thick report called āBanking on Climate Change,ā which ranks the financial giants according to how much damage theyāre doing.
This yearās edition, the tenth, shows Chase in the lead, as usual, followed by Wells Fargo, Citi, and Bank of America. Two Japanese banks and the British giant Barclays are also among the top ten, but itās mostly a North American clubāthree Canadian banks round out the list. And the trend is remarkable: in the three years since the signing of the Paris climate accord, which was designed to help the world shift away from fossil fuels, the banksā lending to the industry has increased every year, and much of the money goes toward the most extreme forms of energy development. In the lead-up to the Paris talks, a team of scientists published a big paper inĀ NatureĀ that listed the planetās most catastrophic deposits of hydrocarbons, the ones that should be left in the ground at all costs. It included Arctic oil and the tar-sands sludge found in northern Alberta; Chase has aggressively funded the extraction of both. According toĀ ran, the bankās largest single energy-sector client is TC Energy (until recently known asĀ Transcanada), which is trying to build the Keystone XL pipeline, which would stretch from the tar sands to the Gulf of Mexicoāa project that President Obama rejected and that theĀ nasaĀ scientist James Hansen said would be the start of a āgame overā scenario for the climate. (Chase would not comment.) Jason OpeƱa Disterhoft,Ā ranās senior campaigner, told me, āItās a climate moment. Weāre in a process, as a society, of naming the actors most responsible for driving the climate crisis, and banks are absolutely on that list. And Chaseātheyāre No. 1 with a bullet, right at the top of the list of who should be held accountable.ā
So what would happen if, tomorrow, Chase announced that it was going to phase out lending to the fossil-fuel industryāprobably first by restricting loans for particular projects, and then by ending general corporate lending and banning the underwriting of new debt and equity for fossil-fuel companies? āWells Fargo and Citi would follow within days,ā according to Tim Buckley, a former managing director at Citi, who now serves as the director of energy-finance studies for Australasia at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (I.E.E.F.A.), a Cleveland-based nonprofit research group. In fact, ātheyād look to go one step further, so as to pretend they werenāt really sheep. And this would have global ramificationsāthe music would stop, very suddenly.ā Wall Street, Buckley said, ācan be very deaf to warnings for years, but the financial-market lemmings will suddenly act in unisonā once the biggest players send a signal. Everyone knows that the fossil-fuel era will come to an end sooner or later; a giant bank pulling back would send an unmistakable signal that it will be sooner. The biggest oil companies might still be able to self-finance their continuing operations, but āthe pure-play frackers will find finance impossible,ā Buckley said. āCoal-dependent rail carriers and port owners and coal-mine contracting firms will all be hit.ā
Done badly, this halt could wreak chaos: the governor of the Bank of England, Mark Carney, warned four years ago that the āstranded assetsāāthe coal, gas, and oil that need to be left undergroundāamount to a twenty-trillion-dollar ācarbon bubbleā that far exceeds the housing bubble that sparked the 2008 financial conflagration. Carney has been diligently trying to deflate the bubble ever since, in hopes of avoiding another crisis. Thatās why it might make sense for Chase and the others to first announce that they were ending loans for theĀ expansionĀ of the fossil-fuel industry, while continuing to extend credit for ongoing operations. āIf Chase does what weāre asking for and other banks follow,ā Alison Kirsch said, āthe impacts of that social signal would be significant immediately, while the economic impacts from transitioning off of fossil fuels would happen over time.ā
And it must be said that, even if bursting this bubble did short-term damage to the economy, that damage would pale next to the kind of wreckage forecast for the planet if the fossil-fuel industry continues on its current path for another decade. Even in economic terms, twenty trillion dollars is paltry compared with the sums that experts now think unabated global warming would consume. At the moment, the planet is on track to warm more than three degrees Celsius by centuryās end, which one recent study found would do five hundred and fifty-one trillion dollars in damage. Thatās more money than currently exists on the planet.
Is there any chance that Chase might halt its fossil-fuel lending? Perhaps not. The bank grew into a global giant under the leadership of David Rockefeller, the grandson of John D. Rockefeller, who established the countryās original oil fortune, by founding the Standard Oil Company, one of whose successor companies is ExxonMobil. For many years, the Chase boardās lead director has been Lee Raymond, who served as the C.E.O. of Exxon during the years when it was working hardest to cast doubt on the reality of global warming. (In 1997, Raymond gave an infamous speech, in Beijing, in which he claimed that the planet was probably cooling, and that, in any event, it was āhighly unlikely that the temperature in the middle of the next century will be affected whether policies are enacted now or twenty years from now.ā) However, in 2016, the Rockefeller Family Fund announced that it would divest from fossil fuels, singling out Exxonās conduct as being āmorally reprehensibleā and adding that āwe must keep most of the already discovered reserves in the ground if there is any hope for human and natural ecosystems to survive and thrive in the decades ahead.ā
The director of the Rockefeller Family Fund, Lee Wasserman, says that itās time to take on the reputations of the bankers, in much the same way thatĀ the Sackler familyĀ has increasingly been shunned for its role in the opioid crisis. āWhen the neighborhood tavern serves up several rounds to an already drunken patron, and the inebriated person rams into a minivan loaded with Little Leaguers, itās not only a tragedyāthe bar may be sued out of business, and the bartender could face jail time,ā he said. āHow much morally worse is it to enable the expansion of a deadly fossil-fuel industry, whose business model is certain to cause the death and suffering of millions of people and the loss of much of the earthās diversity? Big, sophisticated banks such as Chase and Wells Fargo understandĀ climate science and know that our current path is leading towards climate catastrophe. Yet their machine of finance cranks along.ā
Some activists have begun to envision a campaign to pressure the banks. Chaseās retail business is a huge part of its enterprise, as is the case with Citi, Wells Fargo, and the others. āOne of the major risk factors going forward for these guys is generational,ā Disterhoft said. āYou have a rising generation of consumers and potential employees that cares a lot about climate, and theyāre going to be choosing who they do business with factoring that into account.ā In 2017, when Twitter-based activists accused Uber of exploiting Trumpās anti-Muslim travel ban, rather than protesting it, it took just hours for downloads of the Lyft app to surge, for the first time, past those of the Uber app. Switching banks is harder, but, given the volume of credit-card solicitations that show up in the average mailbox every year, probably not much.
A few of the big European banks have begun taking steps away from fossil fuels already. In June, the French giant CrĆ©dit Agricole announced a change that Disterhoft calls the āgold standard to dateā: the bank said that it would no longer do business with companies that are expanding their coal operations, and that, by 2021, its coal-business clients in the developed world would have to produce a plan for getting out of the business by 2030; its clients in China by 2040; and its clients everywhere else by 2050. BankTrack, an N.G.O. headquartered in the Netherlands, called the announcement a āwelcome first step,ā and, indeed, the restrictions have clearly begun to bite. In late June, an Indonesian power-company executive said, āEuropean banks have said they donāt want to finance coal projects for a while. Japanese followed and now Singapore. About eighty-five per cent of the market now donāt want to finance coal-power plants.ā He added, āCoal-power-plant financing is very challenging.ā According to the I.E.E.F.A.ās Buckley, CrĆ©dit Agricoleās move helps explain why, for instance, Vietnam, which was supposed to be a key market for new coal-fired power plants, instead grew its āsolar base tenfold in the twelve months to June, 2019.ā At this point, the coal business is already on its heels, so campaigners are increasingly focussed on gas and oil, but C.A.ās move shows that big, quick shifts are possible.
Asset Management
Every year, Larry Fink, the C.E.O. of BlackRock, writes a letter to the C.E.O.s of the companies in which his company invests. This year, his letter was about capitalism with a āpurpose.ā Along with making a profit, he counselled, the C.E.O.s should be running their businesses to help āaddress pressing social and economic issues.ā Given that the rapid heating of the planet would seem to meet that criteria, some have suggested that Fink should look at his own operation; BlackRock is the worldās largest investor in coal companies, coal-fired utilities, oil and gas companies, and companies driving deforestation. No one else is trying as diligently to make money off the destruction of the planet.
And no one else has as powerful a remedy at hand. Most of the money that pension funds and endowments and individuals invest at BlackRock goes into passive funds, which track a stock-market index, rather than trying to beat the averages. BlackRock, in essence, just buys the market. If the firm simply decided to exclude fossil-fuel stocks from its main fundsāor if it even just decided to underweight the stocksāit would send a message like no other. (According to the I.E.E.F.A., it would also produce better returns for its clients. AĀ studyĀ that the group published in early August notes that BlackRock investors lost ninety billion dollars over the past decade by staying heavily invested in fossil fuels, even as that sector dramatically underperformed compared to the rest of the market.)
The firm couldnāt make this change overnight. Casey Harrell, a senior campaigner at the Australia-based Sunrise Projectāa nonprofit that coƶrdinates a campaign called BlackRockās Big Problem, which aims to pressure the firm to change its investing strategyāconcedes that BlackRock simply holds too much stock: nine per cent of BP, seven per cent of Exxon. āIf they had to sell it all at once, theyād get a bad price, and that would open them to legal exposure. But five years is absolutely doable,ā Harrell told me. Tom Sanzillo, the finance director at the I.E.E.F.A., told me that he made just that suggestion at this yearās BlackRock shareholdersā meeting, in Manhattan. Sanzillo is not a rain-forest activist or a typical climate campaigner; he is a rumpled sixty-four-year-old veteran of the finance industry, who once served as the acting comptroller in charge of New York Stateās two-hundred-billion-dollar pension fund. Hereās his account of what would happen if BlackRock decided to take an aggressive stand and announce that it would slowly start to exclude fossil-fuel stocks from the basket of equities in its biggest funds: āThe stock market would react by driving oil- and gas-stock prices down for both private companies and those state-owned enterprises on the stock market to new lowsāinstitutional investors would understand that continued investment in the fossil-fuel sector meant more volatility, lower returns, and negative future outlook.ā
The sell-off in fossil-fuel stocks would be only half the story, though, Sanzillo says. Money would instead pour into renewable energy, and, since solar and wind power will be increasingly cheaper than fossilĀ fuels, that shift would, in turn, āprompt substantial gains economy-wide, with manufacturing and other energy-intensive stock prices increasing.ā The public-finance desks at every major bank in the world would issue economic-outlook alerts for every country whose economy depends on producing fossil fuels. Russia, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, Venezuela, Australia, and Canada would risk seeing their bonds downgraded. But four-fifths of the worldās population lives in nations that currently pay to import fossil fuels, and their economies would benefit, as ample financing would allow them to transition relatively quickly to low-cost solar and wind power. It wouldnāt just be a market signal, Sanzillo said; it would be a āglaring red rocket,ā a signal that the āfossil-fuel industry has the wind in its face and been kicked in the ass.ā How large would that signal be? The assets under BlackRockās management are worth nearly seven trillion dollars, making it, by some measures, the third-largest economy on earth, after the United States and China, and ahead of Japan.
If the damage to BlackRockās core business from fossil-fuel divestment would be manageableāhow many people are going to go out of their way to demand some climate destruction in their passive index funds, after all?āwhy isnāt the company already moving (and Vanguard and Fidelity and State Street with it)? BlackRock grew to its mammoth size in the years after the financial crisis, in part because it wasnāt designated by the government as a āsystematically important financial institution,ā and so it was spared some of the regulation that big investment houses loathe. That, obviously, could change. And Harrell referred me to a 2017 report from 50/50 Climate, an N.G.O. now called Climate Majority, which noted that, as of 2015, BlackRock handled the pension and other welfare funds for BP, Exxon, and Chevron, earning millions of dollars in fees. āYou can imagine the impact on that business if BlackRock started marketing fossil-free funds as the default option,ā he said.
BlackRockās corporate-communications department would not confirm if the company handles those pension funds. But a spokesperson pointed out that customers, if they so choose, can already buy āno-carbon, low-carbon, and energy-transition investments,ā which currently make up forty-four billion dollars, less than one per cent of BlackRockās business. Company representatives also offer a wonderfully circular defense: a spokesperson said that BlackRock holds investments only in funds that āour clients choose to invest in.ā He added, āOur obligation as an asset manager and a fiduciary is to manage our clientsā assets consistent with their investment priorities.ā So the customers buy the product; BlackRock is just the middleman. Which is true, but thereās no reason that BlackRock couldnāt construct its own index, and market it in such a way as to make a fossil-free fund the default option for investors. Itās as if the firm were saying, The buffet at our restaurant has always included arsenic. Itās part of what makes it a buffet. But wouldnāt it be a nicer restaurant if you actually had to go out of your way to order the arsenic?
Thatās what Amundi, one of Europeās largest asset-management funds, has decided to do. Earlier this year, it committed to phasing out coal stocks from its passive index (along with investments in chemical and biological weapons and cluster bombs). As climate concerns grow, the pressure for American companies to do likewise, and to extend the ban to oil and gas, will also mount. In January, for instance, the Yes Men satire collective released a hoax version of Finkās annual letter to C.E.O.s, the day before the real one was due to be released. āWithin 5 years, more than 90% of our 1000+ investment products will be converted to screen out non-Paris compliant companies such as coal, oil, and gas, which we see as declining and endangered,ā the fake letter said. Whatās interesting was how believable the idea wasāeven theĀ Financial TimesĀ tweeted out the ānews.ā And why not? If you think about it for a momentājust as a person, not as a cynical and knowing sophisticateāwhyĀ wouldĀ anyone invest in companies that canāt even meet the modest commitments we made at Paris?
Insurance
In some ways, the insurance industry resembles the banks and the asset managers: it controls a huge pool of money and routinely invests enormous sums in the fossil-fuel industry. Consider, though, two interesting traits that set insurance apart.
The first is, it knows better. Insurance companies are the part of our economy that we ask to understand risk, the ones with the data to really see what is happening as the climate changes, and for decades theyāve been churning out high-quality research establishing just how bad the crisis really is. āInsurers were among the first to sound the alarm,ā Elana Sulakshana, aĀ ranĀ campaigner who helps coƶrdinate the Insure Our Future campaign for a consortium made up mostly of small environmental groups, told me. āAs far back as the nineteen-seventies, they saw it as a risk.ā In 2005, for instance, Swiss Re, the worldās largest reinsurance company, sponsored a study at the Center for Health and the Global Environment, at Harvard Medical School. The report predicted that, as storms and flooding became more common, they would āoverwhelm the adaptive capacities of even developed nationsā and large areas and sectors would ābecome uninsurable; major investments collapse; and markets crash.ā As a result of cascading climate catastrophes, the day would come when āparts ofĀ developed nations would experience developing nation conditions for prolonged periods.ā In April, Evan Greenberg, the C.E.O. of Chubb, the worldās largest publicly traded property and casualty insurer, said in his annual statement to shareholders that, thanks to climate change, the weather had become āalmost Biblicalā and that āgiven the long-term threat and the short-term nature of politics, the failure of policy makers to address climate change, including these issues and the costs of living in or near high-risk areas, is an existential threat.ā To its credit, Chubb soon took a step that no other big U.S. insurer has managed, and announced that it was restricting insurance and investments in coal companies. But it still invests heavily in oil and gas, and so does virtually every other major insurance company.
The second thing that makes insurance companies unique is that they donāt just provide money; they provide insurance. If you want to build a tar-sands pipeline or a coal-fired power plant or a liquefied-natural-gas export terminal, you need to get an insurance company to underwrite the plan. Otherwise, no one in his right mind would invest in it. āYou canāt even survey a pipeline route without some kind of insurance,ā said Ross Hammond, a senior strategist with the Sunrise Project, which began looking at the insurance industry in 2016, while fighting plans for an Australian coal mine. āIf you have a crew in the field, they need to be covered, Hammond said. āThey break their ankle, theyāre going to sue somebody.ā
The insurance industry, in other words, has become the perfect embodiment of the axiom, attributed to Lenin, that āthe last capitalist we hang shall be the one who sold us the rope.ā (In fact, for a price, it would protect you against the risk that the rope might break.) James Maguire, before he joined a renewable-energy investment and advisory firm, spent the past quarter century as an insurance broker, much of that time in Hong Kong, where he led teams arranging reinsurance for vast fossil-fuel power plants. Thereās no way they can be built without insurers, he explained: āYou want to build a power plant in Vietnam? Weād get a lead insurer in Vietnam, and then arrange the reinsurance behind it. You could have twenty different companies involved.ā And if a bunch of those companies, in essence, were to go on strike, refusing to underwrite new fossil-fuel projects? āThings would absolutely slow,ā he said. āA project is typically not bankable until it is insurable.ā Just as Exxon might be able to survive without bank financing, and might be able to buy back its shares if BlackRock put them on the market, it and a few other giant companies might be able to self-insure their ventures. But āit would absolutely create a more challenging financial process,ā Maguire said. Insurance is so ingrained in our economy that it could work the same trick from many different anglesāMark Campanale, who directs the London think tank Carbon Tracker Initiative, says that just limiting the standard indemnity policies that cover a companyās officers and directors, to exclude coverage for those who donāt take climate change seriously, would be a big step. Insurance implies cautionābut, in a rapidly deteriorating world, our only chance may be bold action. āThere was five feet of hail in Guadalajara ten days ago,ā Maguire said, when we spoke in July. āNo company had a model that predicted that.ā
Alec Connon is a soft-spoken Scotsman in his early thirties, who left home to shear sheep in New Zealand, and then went to Canada, to plant trees, before settling down in Seattle, where he has become a stalwart of the climate movement in the Pacific Northwest. (He is a leader of the local affiliate of 350.org.) Heās fought the construction of natural-gas terminals and has sat on railroad tracks to block oil trains. In 2016, he joined a flotilla of ākayaktivistsā who blockaded a giant oil rig that Shell hoped would open the Arctic to oil drillingāa fight that ended in victory for the activists, late that year, when Shell announced it was withdrawing from the region.
Since the fight over the Dakota Access Pipeline erupted, at the Standing Rock Reservation, in 2016, Connon has been focussed on the role of the banks that underwrite such projects. Working closely with indigenous-led groups, such as Mazaska Talks (Lakota for āMoney Talksā), he helped launch one of the first campaigns to encourage consumers and communities to switch banks. Seattleāwith plenty of money and plenty of environmentalistsāhas been a natural testing ground for such efforts. Two years ago, the groups organized their first civil disobedience, shutting down thirteen Chase branches for the better part of a day, with everything from pray-ins to picnics with live music. Last December, they laid a giant inflatable pipeline through the lobby of Chaseās Northwest headquarters and staged a black-clad human āoil spillā; in May, ten roaming āaffinity groupsā shut down each of the forty-four Chase branches in the city for a few hours.
āWe worried at first that it might be a cognitive leap for people,ā Connon said. āThat it wouldnāt be as clear to people as going directly at the fossil-fuel companies. But thatās not been my experience on the ground. Itās pretty clear. You can tell the story in one sentence: theyāre funding the fossil-fuel industry, which is wrecking the planet.ā In fact, he says, itās easier toĀ take on the whole issue than small parts of it: āWeāve found it much easier to talk about fossil fuels in general, not coal or particular projects.ā Could the idea scale? āEvery town has a bank,ā he pointed out, not to mention an insurance agent and a stockbroker. āIf you could protest at forty-four Chase branches, you could do it at all five thousand across the country.ā
Itās all but impossible for most of us to stop using fossil fuels immediately, especially since, in many places, the fossil-fuel and utility industries have made it difficult and expensive to install solar panels on your roof. But itās both simple and powerful to switch your bank account: local credit unions and small-town banks are unlikely to be invested in fossil fuels, and Beneficial State Bank and Amalgamated Bank bring fossil-free services to the West and East Coasts, respectively, while Aspiration Bank offers them online. (And theyāre all connected to A.T.M.s.)
This all could, in fact, become one of the final great campaigns of the climate movementāa way to focus the concerted power of any person, city, and institution with a bank account, a retirement fund, or an insurance policy on the handful of institutions that could actually change the game. We are indeed in a climate momentāpeopleās fear is turning into anger, and that anger could turn fast and hard on the financiers. If it did, it wouldnāt end the climate crisis: we still have to pass the laws that would actually cut the emissions, and build out the wind farms and solar panels. Financial institutions can help with that work, but their main usefulness lies in helping to break the power of the fossil-fuel companies.
Most of the N.G.O.s already at work taking on the banks and insurers, which include many indigenous-led and grassroots groups, are small; often theyāve had no choice but to focus their efforts on trying to block particular projects. (The vast Adani coal mine planned for eastern Australia has been a particular test, and at this point most of the worldās major banks and insurers have publicly announced that theyāll steer clear of involvement.) Imagine, instead, this financial fight becoming a fulcrum of the environmental-justice battle.
Even if that happened, victory is far from guaranteed. Persuading giant financial firms to give up even small parts of their business would be close to unprecedented. And inertia is a powerful forceāthere are whole teams of people in each of these firms who have spent years learning the fossil-fuel industry inside and out, so that they can lend, trade, and underwrite efficiently and profitably. Those people would have to learn about solar power, or electric cars. That would be hard, in the same way that itās hard for coal miners to retrain to become solar-panel installers.
But weāre all going to have to changeāthatās the point. Farmers around the world are leaving their land because the sea is rising; droughts are already creating refugees by the millions. On the spectrum of shifts that the climate crisis will require, bankers and investors and insurers have it easy. A manageably small part of their business needs to disappear, to be replaced by what comes next. No one should actually be a master of the universe. But, for the moment, the financial giantsĀ areĀ the masters of our planet. Perhaps we can make them put that power to use. Fast.
Bill McKibben, a former New Yorker staff writer, is a founder of the grassroots climate campaign 350.org and the Schumann Distinguished Scholar in environmental studies at Middlebury College. His latest book is āFalter: Has the Human Game Begun to Play Itself Out?
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