In Ecuador, protests against the elimination of diesel subsidies continue. Over two weeks have passed since the Confederation of Indigenous Nationalities (CONAIE) called on its supporters to protest against the decision of Daniel Noboa’s right-wing government, which, according to several experts, is expected to lead to a rise in the cost of living, hitting the poorest the hardest.

Diego Carrión, professor at the Institute of Economic Research at the Central University of Ecuador, says that with the rise in the price of diesel, families will have to spend, on average, more than 100 USD a month to cover basic needs, adding to the difficulties of poor families – the vast majority of Ecuador’s population – for whom it is already impossible to purchase all essential products.

The sheer number of days of protest is only comparable to those in 2022, when then-President Guillermo Lasso (2021-2023) eliminated fuel subsidies. The protests caused him to reverse his decision. But the truth is that the current protests do not have the same force as those in 2022.

The natural wear and tear of those mobilizations, added to those of 2019, as well as the continued support Noboa enjoys from a significant part of the population and the economic and political elites, means that his decision is not, for the moment, truly threatened.

The government’s neoliberal state project

Noboa is also approaching a referendum that he himself called for mid-November, in which he will ask, among other things, whether the presence of foreign military bases in Ecuador should be approved and whether an assembly should be convened to write a new constitution.

In this way, Noboa intends to change the very structure of the state, legally aligning the country with Washington’s geopolitical precepts and changing the essence of the current constitution – which is progressive and social democratic – to a neoliberal one that allows for the privatization of public services, increased power for law enforcement and surveillance capabilities, and labor reform, which will lead to a loss of workers’ rights, among other transformations.

Possible mobilization of CONAIE in Quito

However, Noboa’s agenda still faces opposition from social organizations that oppose his neoliberal project, and from the growing discontent with the anti-popular economic and political measures he is promoting.

There have been several anti-government mobilizations in the country, especially in the province of Imbabura, the current epicenter of the protests, and where the security forces have acted most harshly. Efraín Fuérez, an Indigenous worker, was shot in the back and killed during a demonstration in that province.

CONAIE President Marlon Vargas announced that if the government does not reverse its decision to eliminate the diesel subsidy – in addition to reducing the Value Added Tax (VAT) from 15% to 12%, among other demands – he could mobilize his supporters to Quito, the country’s capital, where the strongest protests of 2019 and 2022 took place.

Noboa responded to Vargas on X: “No one can come and take the capital of all Ecuadorians by force. Those who choose violence will face the law. Those who act like criminals will be treated like criminals.”

In response to this announcement, the mayor of Quito, Pabel Muñoz, said that “Quito will not be held hostage by the mistakes of others or by any threats.” Muñoz belongs to the Citizen Revolution party of former president Rafael Correa (2007-2017), so his statements have been seen by several analysts as confirmation that Correísmo, the country’s second political force, is not joining and will not join the protests.

Noboa’s strategy

This great division has undoubtedly been one of the major advantages for Noboa’s government, which, for now, has opted for a strategy that is banking on the attrition of Indigenous mobilizations, a smear campaign attempting to portray the protesters as “terrorists”, and sporadic appearances in conflict zones to deliver economic bonuses and aid.

Furthermore, Noboa has not hesitated to order severe repression in troubled areas. Several videos show the harshness with which police and military forces have acted against populations opposed to his government, such as in the provinces of Imbabura, Bolívar, and Pichincha. These actions have been denounced by various human rights organizations.

Journalists denounce attacks

In addition, there have been repeated reports of the police having no qualms about repressing journalists who are at the sites of the demonstrations. This was denounced at the time by journalists from BN Periodismo, who accused the police of pepper spraying them and TeleSur reporters.

In addition, on Sunday, October 5, it was reported that Spanish journalist Lautaro Bernat was deported from Ecuadorian territory. According to the Regional Foundation for Human Rights Advisory Services (INREDH), Bernat, who was covering the protests in Imbabura, was deported because of his journalistic work. “He was intercepted without being informed of the reasons for his detention, denied immediate communication with his embassy, and not allowed adequate legal defense before his deportation. This is a serious attack on freedom of expression and an example of the authoritarian use of immigration mechanisms to silence journalists and human rights defenders in the context of the 2025 National Strike,” INREDH said in a statement.

For now, it remains to be seen whether the Indigenous movement will have the strength to continue the demonstrations and whether it has the capacity to reach Quito. This would require an enormous effort on the part of CONAIE and its ability to garner the necessary solidarity in the capital to sustain what would likely be protests with a high cost amid the escalating repression. Noboa, for his part, continues to call for the protests to be dispersed. The truth is that the national strike is not yet over, and the board is still open for new moves.

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