Chile today stands at a political crossroads where the presidential election is not merely a contest for power—it is a reflection of the fundamental conflict between future social projects and conceptions of the state. In the recently completed first round, Communist candidate Michelle Bachelet secured the highest vote share at 26.85 per cent. Behind her is far-right leader José Antonio Kast, who obtained approximately 23.92 per cent of the vote. Now, in the final round on 14 December, these two opposing political ideologies are set to face each other.

Meanwhile, security, immigration and economic uncertainty have become the focal points of political discourse—issues that have played a principal role in determining public opinion across many Latin American states over the past decade.

Security and Immigration: The Rise of the Politics of Fear

Chile has traditionally been known as a relatively safe country in Latin America. However, in recent times, gang-related crime, particularly allegations of the activity of Venezuela’s Tren de Aragua [1] organisation, has created deep concern amongst citizens. Kidnappings, extortion, criminal homicides—such incidents have come to dominate people’s daily thoughts.

It is in this atmosphere of fear that Kast has built the foundation of his campaign. Promises such as strict immigration policies, construction of wall-like infrastructure at the border, and immediate deportation of illegal immigrants are garnering support for his camp. In the name of restoring state governance capacity, he is presenting a vision of a centralised state structure with firm law and order.

On the other hand, Zara is not dismissing the security question. Construction of new prisons, modernisation of crime-fighting forces—alongside these, she is emphasising society-oriented policies: participation of local communities, bringing youth under protection programmes, expansion of the state’s social responsibilities. Her argument is that relying solely on severity in combating crime will not produce lasting results; rather, the roots of inequality within society must be struck.

The immigration issue has also gained tremendous importance in electoral discourse. There is intense debate in the country regarding immigrants fleeing from Venezuela’s political and economic collapse. Although experts point out that the country’s crime picture is not entirely immigration-dependent, right-wing propaganda has significantly stoked this fear.

Economy and Voter Mentality: Which Way is Public Opinion Flowing?

The economic crisis is also playing a major role in shaping electoral sentiment. Inflation, income reduction, employment uncertainty—all these together have created an environment where the fear of insecurity easily finds place in political messaging.

Zara is presenting here the concept of a progressive welfare state—affordable housing, public health protection, expansion of employment. In her view, state intervention can fill the gap of economic inequality.

Kast’s response: forming a private-driven economy by contracting the revenue structure. Promises of tax reduction, investment-friendly policies and limiting the state’s role are drawing a section of the middle class to his side.

This election has seen the implementation of compulsory voting, bringing many new voters before the ballot box for the first time. Which side their decisions will ultimately strengthen—the answer to this question remains unknown.

Possible Outcomes: Which Way Will Chile’s Future Turn?

Analysis of the first-round results shows that right-wing votes are rapidly shifting towards Kast. Johannes Kaiser and Evelyn Matthei [2] have already announced their support for him. Consequently, Kast’s position may become even stronger in the second round.

If Kast wins, Chile may enter a strict law-and-order-dependent state system, where immigration and internal security will take priority. Conversely, if Zara wins, the expansion of social protection and public welfare-based policies will become her main challenge—balancing parliament, reforming the tax system, and reducing social divisions will be her principal tasks.

Conclusion: An Election of a Divided State

This Chilean election is fundamentally a contest between two different political projects. On one side is the politics of fear-mongering, strict state governance and aggressive anti-immigration policies; on the other is the promise of expanding social justice, equality and state responsibility.

In the current political environment of Latin America, this election could become an important benchmark. Which path Chile’s future will take depends on the outcome of the election on 14 December. This election will influence not only the country’s internal politics but also the broader geopolitics of the region.

Chile’s voters therefore stand in a kind of divided position—where the question is singular: a state confined under the harsh shadow of security, or a justice-based society-oriented Chile—which will they accept as the blueprint for a new future?

Footnotes

[1] Tren de Aragua is a transnational criminal organisation that originated in Venezuela and has expanded operations across Latin America, engaging in activities including extortion, kidnapping, drug trafficking and human smuggling

[2] Johannes Kaiser and Evelyn Matthei are right-wing political figures in Chile who contested the first round of the presidential election

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