There are serious and critical discussions taking place in Australia about the legitimacy of the U.S.-Australian geopolitical alliance. Back in 2014, I had the chance to speak with the former Liberal Party prime minister of Australia, Malcolm Fraser. At the time, Fraser just published his book, Dangerous Allies, a scathing critique of Australia’s foreign policy since the end of the Cold War and its historical relationship with the British Empire.

According to Fraser:

Australia has always been reliant on ‘great and powerful friends’ for its sense of national security and for direction on its foreign policy—first on the British Empire and now on the United States. Australia has actively pursued a policy of strategic dependence, believing that making a grand bargain with a powerful ally was the best policy to ensure its security and prosperity.

Dangerous Allies examines Australia’s history of strategic dependence and questions the continuation of this position. It argues that international circumstances, in the world and in the Western Pacific especially, now make such a policy highly questionable. Since the fall of the Soviet Union, the United States has also changed dramatically, making it less relevant to Australia and a less appropriate ally on which Australia should rely.

Without question, Fraser’s point of view is becoming more mainstream. Just today, I watched an interview with another former prime minister of Australia, Paul Keating of the Labor Party. Keating, echoing Fraser’s concerns, insists that Australia shouldn’t follow the U.S. into anymore ill-advised and criminal wars.

Furthermore, Keating notes that the West has created Vladimir Putin by pushing NATO’s boundaries to the Kremlin’s doorsteps. Instead of viewing Russia as a potential partner in European affairs, Keating argues that NATO’s expansionism has been overwhelmingly responsible for the Cold War 2.0. Today, we’re seeing what the new Cold War looks like in Ukraine and Syria: scorched bodies, devastated landscapes and increasing instability throughout the world.

Australia finds itself in the interesting position of being economically tied to China, while being militarily aligned with the U.S. and its European allies. Undoubtedly, these contradictory relationships have created much tension. However, Keating was very clear during his interview with ABC host Kerry O’Brien: China’s power will continue to grow, particularly in the South Pacific. As a result, the U.S. will be forced to capitulate to a new world order, a bipolar, or unipolar world, with Russia and various other powers extending their economic and military reach.

Of course, none of this is discussed in the U.S. In the land of Hollywood and guns, it’s taken for granted that our allies abroad will continue to behave as Uncle Sam’s lapdogs. But that’s no longer the case. Governments around the world are questioning their relationships with the U.S. Empire, with the understanding that China’s rise has, and will continue to challenge America’s hegemony.

There’s also a domestic component to this equation, as Australia experiences ongoing demographic shifts. John West, Executive Director of the Asian Century Institute, notes that:

Asian Australians now make up some 12% of the nation’s population, with Chinese Australians being the leading group. Indeed, by end-June 2011, there were 391 060 Chinese-born people were living in Australia, 51 per cent more than five years earlier.

China now has the third largest migrant community in Australia, after the UK and New Zealand, representing 6.5 per cent of Australia’s overseas-born population and 1.8 per cent of its total population. In the year 2011-12, China was the second largest provider of permanent migrants to Australia. Some 185 000 China-born people work in Australia as professionals (24 per cent), technicians and trades workers (14 per cent) and clerical and administrative workers (14 per cent).

China-born people are currently the largest provider of students and make up 20 per cent of all international enrollments in Australia. Eight out of ten Chinese students are enrolled in higher education or post-graduate research.

Surely, tens of thousands of highly educated Chinese students will not stand for western hostilities. They, like so many immigrants throughout the world, have family members who still live in their native land. How will these students, workers and residents influence Australia’s relationship with the U.S.? This question will be answered in the coming years and decades.

When I had the chance to speak with Malcolm Fraser, it was more than clear that the aging and now deceased prime minister was genuinely concerned with the trajectory of U.S.-Australian relations. The two activists who set up the meeting were also in attendance, but their primary interest was in getting Fraser to work with them in future campaigns.

We talked about my time in Iraq. He spoke about his time in office and the mistakes he made throughout the years, how his views have changed and what he hoped to achieve with his recently published book. He told us that campaigns directed at closing down Pine Gap, a U.S.-Australian joint military base located just outside Alice Springs. According to professor Philip Dorling:

Pine Gap’s original and still most important function is to serve as the ground control station for US National Reconnaissance Office signals intelligence satellites that intercept ballistic missile test telemetry and microwave telecommunications.  In addition Pine Gap relays data from US missile launch detection/early warning satellites –the Space-Based Infrared System.

As revealed by Fairfax Media in 2013, the facility also intercepts a very wide range of radio and mobile telephone communications to provide tactical intelligence support for US military operations across the Eastern hemisphere, including drone strikes in Afghanistan, Iraq, Yemen and elsewhere.

To put differently, the U.S. absolutely requires Australia’s subservience to continue its imperial adventures in East Asia and the South Pacific. If at some point Australians decide to reject Uncle Sam’s demands, the U.S. Empire will endure a heavy blow.

The most interesting portion of our conversation with Fraser was when we asked him how people in power perceive and respond to social movements, activists and political unrest. He said, “We respect power. We can handle people in the streets – that’s no big deal. But we’re always concerned that at some point, those protestors might actually get organized enough to seriously challenge parliamentary power.” In Fraser’s view, electoral politics rule the day.

People in power can withstand temporary embarrassment, but not political unemployment. In other words, according to Fraser, alternative political parties scare the hell out of the existing political class and their corporate masters. Of course, revolutionary movements would frighten them even more, but those prospects are a long way off in places like Australia and North America.

Fraser went on to talk briefly about the Obama administration and its many geopolitical blunders and failures, including Obama’s murderous drone program. Malcolm considers the sectarian political parties in Australia to be a joke, and when asked about the Green Party, he said, “The Greens are viewed as a one-issue party. They’ll never garner enough support to seriously challenge the power of the Liberal and Labor parties. Australia, like the U.S., needs new parties, and broad coalitions to build them.”

In the end, Australians hold very contradictory views concerning their relationship with China and the U.S. According to the Lowy Institute:

When asked whether China is ‘more of an economic partner to Australia or more of a military threat to Australia’, a solid majority (77%) see China as ‘more of an economic partner’. Only 15% see it as ‘more of a military threat’. Previous Lowy Institute polling has found that the majority of Australians see China as by far the most important economy to Australia, with 76% saying China was ‘the most important economy to Australia’ in 2013, ahead of both the United States and Japan (16% named the United States as our most important economy in 2013, and 5% named Japan).

While Australians value their economic relationships with China, a significant number (39%) believe that it’s “likely that ‘China will become a military threat to Australia in the next 20 years.'” In 2014, however, that number was nine points higher. Fortunately, “a substantial proportion of the population (73%) agrees that ‘Australia should develop closer relations with China as it grows in influence’, and a majority (52%) now disagree that ‘Australia should join with other countries to limit China’s influence’, which was not the majority view in our 2008, 2010 and 2011 Polls (46%, 40% and 47% respectively).”

Regardless of how Australian leaders such as Keating and Fraser feel about the U.S. alliance, an overwhelming number of Australian citizens support Australia’s ongoing geopolitical relationship with the U.S.:

The 2015 Poll reaffirms Australians’ enduring support for our alliance with the United States. After a slight decline in support between 2012 and 2014, the vast majority (80%) in 2015 say that the US alliance is ‘very’ or ‘fairly’ important for Australia’s security, a majority (53%) seeing it as ‘very important’. This is 17 points higher than the low point in 2007 during the presidency of George W. Bush. Support for the alliance is strong regardless of gender or age.

For Australian activists, educators and artists seeking to raise critical points about the alliance, these numbers highlight a great challenge. Without doubt, Australians value their economic relationship with China, but also their military relationship with the U.S., as they see Americans as sharing the same values and interests, with a common history and so forth. Undoubtedly, these trends and opinions will continue to shift as time goes on.

For now, however, the most interesting and critical conversations concerning the U.S.-Australian alliance are taking place in the annals of power, not amongst the general population. Until this dynamic changes, Australia will continue to find itself in a very precarious situation, both economically and militarily speaking.

Vincent Emanuele can be reached at [email protected]

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