Guest Post by Alexander Achmatowicz

 

 

(above) Proposed Natural Gas Pipeline Routes Transiting Balochistan[i]

 

If either IPI (Iran-Pakistan-India or more likely IPC Iran-India-China pipeline) or TAPI (Trans-Afghan Pipeline running between Turkmenistan-Afghanistan and Pakistan) is going to be constructed, a rarely discussed south western region of Pakistan is going to be the key. Balochistan comprises almost 44% of Pakistan’s land mass, but less than 4% of the population.[ii] Both the IPI  and TAPI would pass through Baluchistan, which is currently engulfed in its own low level separatist civil war with the Pakistani government. Baluchistan possesses uranium, copper, possibly vast amounts of oil (6 trillion barrels, according to one geological survey that has yet to be verified), but most significantly the largest amount of Pakistan’s proven gas reserves (19 trillion cubic feet).[iii] In Afghanistan’s Shadow, a book published in 1981, Selig S. Harrison, writes “A glance at the map quickly explains why strategically located Balochistan and the five million Baloch tribesmen who live there could easily become the focal point of a superpower conflict.”[iv] While unspoken of in the American media, the significance of Balochistan is understood in Pentagon circles. Part of the Pentagon’s concern is alarm is over China’s development of the deep-water port of Gwadar, officially opened in 2008.[v] Gwadar is currently only “capable of receiving freighters with a capacity of 30,000 tons” according to a report by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, but it is expected to be able to receive oil tankers by 2010.[vi] From China’s perspective, the port is a straight shot from western China and could become a central port for oil and gas to be brought to market in Xianjing. Chinese development of Gwadar signals closer relations between China and Pakistan, which the US regards with hostility.

The question then becomes what the US intends regarding Balochistan. Quetta, the capital, is the historic Taliban’s central command in Pakistan. Taliban emir Mullar Omar, “The Shadow” himself is reported to reside in Quetta. “The main traditional center of Taliban activity is…in the Balochi area.  It is, at this point in time, by far the most effective threat to NATO and the US and Afghan forces,” according to Anthony Cordesman, analyst for the Center for Strategic and International Studies.[vii] Until recently, the US threatened to launch drone attacks into Balochistan, but Pakistan protested vehemently. The new surge troops going to Nimruz, which is a Baloch-majority part of Afghanistan, will be located nearby, whatever the Pentagon decides.

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[i] Robert G. Wirsling. Baloch Nationalism and the Politics of Energy Resources. Strategic Studies Institute. April 2008. Pg. 2 http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pdffiles/PUB853.pdf

[ii] Ibid. Robert G. Wirsling

[iii] Frederric Grere. Pakistan the Resurgence of Baluch Nationalism. Carnegie Papers. Massachusetts. Carneigi Endowment for International Peace Publications Department. 2006. Pg. 4

[iv] Robert G. Wirsling. Baloch Nationalism and the Politics of Energy Resources. Strategic Studies Institute. April 2008. Pg. 5 http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pdffiles/PUB853.pdf

[v] Frederric Grere. Pakistan the Resurgence of Baluch Nationalism. Carnegie Papers. Massachusetts. Carneigi Endowment for International Peace Publications Department. 2006. Pg. 4

[vi] Jackie Northham. “US May Expand Anti-Militant Effort To Balochistan.” NPR. March 2007, 2009. http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=102393770

[vii] Frederric Grere. Pakistan the Resurgence of Baluch Nationalism. Carnegie Papers. Massachusetts. Carneigi Endowment for International Peace Publications Department. 2006.

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Alexander Achmatowicz is a twenty-one year old student at the University of Maine who takes a keen interest in discrediting the propaganda around American foreign policy.  He also wants me to refer people to an article by Pepe Escobar from the Asia Times Online entitled “Balochistan is the Ultimate Prize.” (http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/KE09Df03.html)

This post is an excerpt from an excellent, longer paper he wrote entitled Obama’s War for Blue Gold (natural gas). If people want a copy of the entire document, please contact me. 

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