yombhalo
NGABA INDAODA ELUNGILE: Ipalamente yaseTshayina ivotele ngamxhelo mnye ukunika uXi Jinping ithuba lesithathu leminyaka emihlanu njengomongameli. Uvoto lwanamhlanje luza kwiinyanga nje emva kokuba iQela lamaKomanisi lase China liphinde lonyula ngokusesikweni uXi Jinping njengonobhala jikelele weqela eminye iminyaka emihlanu.
Oku kuza njengoko ukungavisisani kuyaqhubeka nokukhula phakathi kwe-United States ne-China, ngokuyinxenye phezu kweTaiwan. NgoLwesine, uMlawuli wezobuNhloli kuzwelonke e-US uAvril Haines uxelele iisenenja zase-China ukuba ibeka "esona sisongelo sibalulekileyo" kukhuseleko lwelizwe lase-US.
UTSHAZIMPUZI IINHUMBA: Ngamafutshane, i I-CCP imele zombini ezona isoyikiso ziphambili kunye nezona ziziphumo kukhuseleko lwesizwe lwase-US kunye nobunkokeli kwihlabathi liphela, kunye namabhongo ayo kubukrelekrele obuthile kunye nesakhono senza ukuba kube ngathi eyona mbangi yethu inzulu kunye nesiphumo sobuntlola. Kulo nyaka uphelileyo, isoyikiso senziwa nzima ngakumbi yintsebenziswano enzulu kunye neRussia, ehlala iyindawo, ngokucacileyo, yokugxila kakhulu kuluntu lwezobuntlola.
NGABA INDAODA ELUNGILE: Xa wayebuzwa ukuba iUnited States ingayikhusela na iTaiwan ngomkhosi, uHaines wathi, ecaphula, "Ndicinga ukuba icacile kumaTshayina ukuba ithini na imeko yethu, ngokusekwe kumagqabaza kamongameli." Wayebhekisa kumazwi aphindaphindiweyo kaBiden okuba i-US yayiza kukhusela iTaiwan ngomkhosi ukuba iChina ihlasele lo mmandla.
Kwiveki ephelileyo, abaphathi beBiden bavume iidola ezingama-619 ezigidi zeedola ekuthengiseni izixhobo ezikumgangatho ophezulu eTaiwan, kubandakanya nemijukujelwa emitsha yeejethi zokulwa ze-F-16. Umphathiswa omtsha wezangaphandle waseTshayina, uQin Gang, usanda kugxeka ukuxhotyiswa kwe-US eTaiwan.
QIN gang: [Iguqulelwe] Abantu baseTshayina banelungelo lokubuza: Kutheni i-US ithetha ixesha elide malunga nokuhlonipha ulongamo kunye nengqibelelo yomhlaba e-Ukraine ngelixa ingahloneli ulongamo lwaseTshayina kunye nengqibelelo yomhlaba kumbuzo waseTaiwan? Kutheni i-US ibuza i-China ukuba ingaboneleli ngezixhobo eRashiya ngelixa iqhubeka nokuthengisa izixhobo eTaiwan?
NGABA INDAODA ELUNGILE: Ukujonga ngakumbi ubudlelwane be-US-China kunye nokunyuka kwengxabano eTaiwan, sidityaniswe nguAlfred McCoy, uprofesa wembali kwiYunivesithi yaseWisconsin-Madison. Eyona ncwadi yakhe yamva nje inesihloko Ukulawula iHlabathi: iMiyalelo yeHlabathi kunye noTshintsho oluNcinci. Entsha yakhe Qhekeza kuba TomDispatch unomxholo othi “Elunxwemeni Lwemfazwe kwiPasifiki?”
UNjingalwazi McCoy, wamkelekile kwakhona Intando yeninzi Ngoku! Ke, masikubuze lo mbuzo. Ngaba i-US isekupheleni kwemfazwe kwiPasifiki neTshayina?
ALFRED ifani McCOY: Molo, Amy.
Sisondela ngakumbi kolo ngqameko. Ewe sinjalo. Jonga, xa — imbali isifundisa into enye. Njengoko uBarbara Tuchman wathi kwincwadi yakhe edumileyo, Imipu ka-Agasti, ebhekisela kuAgasti wowe-1914, ezama ukucacisa indlela amagunya amakhulu awalwa ngayo imfazwe engazange yoyiswe mntu, iMfazwe Yehlabathi I, yaye ngokusisiseko oko wakufumanisayo yayikukuba ngokulungiselela imfazwe, amagunya atyekela kuwo. Bandisa amathuba okuba kubekho imfazwe. Kwaye ukusuka kwincopho yamandla eBeijing naseWashington, ukuya kuthi ga kwikhonkco lomyalelo, omabini amagunya alungiselela imfazwe. Iinkokeli zithetha amazwi, yaye abaphathi bazo bawa phantsi namalungiselelo emfazwe. Kwaye oko kwandisa kakhulu amathuba okuqhambuka kongquzulwano.
JUAN GONZÁLEZ: Ewe, Alfred McCoy, bendifuna ukukubuza, ngokwawo wonke lo mba - kwaye siwubona uboniswa ngokuphindaphindiweyo kumaphephandaba ase-US njenge-China njengamandla akhulayo emhlabeni. Ngoku, ndiyavuma ukuba ndineengxaki ezininzi zokuqonda oku, xa ujonga irekhodi. Ukusuka kwinto endinokuyithetha, amaxesha amathathu okugqibela apho umkhosi waseTshayina uphume ngaphandle kwemida yawo ubuyile ngeminyaka yoo-1950 kunye nee'60s. Kwaye kwakukho iKorea. Kwabakho imfazwe emfutshane ngo-’62 neIndiya, imfazwe yomda eyayiyimfazwe yomda ngowe-1979 neVietnam eyathi iTshayina yaba nenxaxheba kuyo. Ngelo xesha, ukususela ngelo xesha, ngokokubala kwam, iUnited States yahlasela iGrenada ngo’83; ngowe-1990, ePanama; ngowe-1991, iMfazwe yeGulf yokuqala; ngowe-1999, uhlaselo, imfazwe yomoya eSerbia; ngowama-2001, eAfghanistan; ngowama-2003, eIraq. Kwaye kukho ukuqhushumba kweLibya, ungenelelo lwase-US eSyria. Ke, i-China ibonakaliswa njani ngamajelo ethu kunye namagunya aseNtshona njengamandla ahlaselayo kwihlabathi kule mihla?
ALFRED ifani McCOY: I-United States ibilelona gunya liphambili ehlabathini iminyaka engama-75. Kule minyaka ingama-30 idlulileyo, besilelona gunya libalaseleyo ehlabathini. Ngoko ke, kulo mbono, nawuphi na umngeni ngumngeni omkhulu. Kwaye iTshayina ligunya lokuqala elikwaziyo ukukhwelisa lo mngeni.
Kwaye kuhlobo lwenkqubo ye-US hegemony, isoyikiso eTaiwan sinzulu. Esinye sezitshixo kumandla ehlabathi laseMelika ibe yile nto amaTshayina ayibiza ngokuba likhonkco lokuqala lesiqithi; siyibiza ngokuba yiPasifiki yokoqobo. Ekuqaleni kweMfazwe Yomlomo emva phayaa ngeminyaka yoo-1950, iUnited States yayinezivumelwano zokhuseleko ezihlanu, eziqala eJapan, zidlula eMzantsi Korea, eTaiwan, kwiiPhilippines naseOstreliya. Kwaye le yi-fulcrum yamandla ehlabathi e-US, eyenza i-United States ikhusele ilizwekazi elinye, uMntla Melika, kwaye ilawule elinye, ilizwekazi elikhulu le-Eurasia. Kwaye ke, ngaphandle kwayo yonke enye into, ukulahleka kweTaiwan kuya kuluqhawula olo tyathanga lwe-geopolitical, olu luxanduva lokhuselo lwe-US lwehlabathi, kwaye isoyikise ngokutyhala i-United States ibuyele kwinto ebizwa ngokuba likhonkco lesibini lesiqithi, elibaleka ukusuka eJapan ukuya eGuam kwaye. ukuya emazantsi.
Ke ngoko, ngokwembono ye-geopolitical, i-China imele— zombini, okokuqala, ngobukhulu bayo bomkhosi, eyesibini ngobukhulu, ubukhulu boqoqosho lwayo, ngoqikelelo oluninzi ngoku lolona likhulu ehlabathini—isisongelo esikhulu, esokuqala sokwenene. Usongelo kumandla ehlabathi e-US ngaphezulu kweminyaka engama-30.
JUAN GONZÁLEZ: Kodwa ngaba iUnited States, ukuya kuthi ga kwinqanaba elikhulu, ngokusisiseko incede uphuhliso olukhulu loqoqosho lwase China zizo zonke iinkampani zase-US ezenze iChina yaba liziko lemveliso yehlabathi, yatyala imali apho, yakha iifektri zayo apho, kwaye yasebenzisa iimveliso ezinexabiso eliphantsi. yaseTshayina ukugcina ukubonelela ngomgangatho ongcono wokuphila kubantu baseNtshona? Ke, ngaba i-US, ngandlela ithile, ayinaxanduva olukhulu lokunyuka koqoqosho lwaseTshayina?
ALFRED ifani McCOY: Ewe, okokuqala, amaTshayina azenzele ngokwawo. Kodwa into eyenziwe yi-United States yamkelwe iTshayina njengelungu elipheleleyo loqoqosho lwehlabathi. Jonga, xa imbali yobukumkani baseMelika ibhaliwe kwaye abaphengululi bazama ukufumana ezinye zezigqibo eziphambili ezenziwa ngabantu baseMelika, iinkokeli zaseMelika, eziye zagwebela ubukhosi base-US ukuba boyise, enye yezinto abaya kuzo, ndiyacinga, ingqwalasela kukuba, emva ngo-2001, kwakukho isigqibo se-bipartisan ngeenkokheli zombini zeRiphabhlikhi kunye neDemocratic Party yokuvuma i-China kwi-World Trade Organization.
Ngoku, lo ibingumbutho olamla urhwebo phakathi kwamagunya ezoshishino athelekisekayo. Kwaye okokuqala, esi sizwe sikhulu kangaka esaphuhlayo samkelwa kuMbutho woRhwebo weHlabathi njengeqabane elipheleleyo lokurhweba. Kwaye emva koko bayisebenzisa njengePac-Man ukunyusela ishishini lehlabathi. Kwaye ngoku iTshayina lelona gunya liphambili kwezoshishino ehlabathini, elinomthamo wemizi-mveliso waseUnited States ngokuphindwe kabini, likhulu kunawo nawaphi na amanye amashishini akhoyo kwesi sijikelezi-langa. Kwaye oko kungenxa yokwamkelwa kweTshayina kuMbutho woRhwebo weHlabathi.
Ngelixa yayisenziwa, iWashington, kwisenzo esiphakamileyo sobukhosi, yacinga ukuba iChina yayiza kudlala umdlalo wehlabathi ngemithetho ebhalwe ngokucacileyo yaseMelika. Konke kulungile? Ukuba baya kuba yibhere entle, ethobelayo, ethandeka kakhulu yaseTshayina. KULUNGILE? Into yethu yokudlala encinci enokuvelisa iithoyi zethu kuqoqosho lwethu ngamaxabiso aphantsi. Kwaye ngokucacileyo akuzange kwenzeke ngolo hlobo. I-China ingamandla amakhulu. Ngokungathandabuzekiyo bobona bukhosi bunamandla ehlabathini kwimbali yonke. Kwaye i-China, ngokwembono yayo, ifumana nje indawo yayo efanelekileyo njengenkokeli yehlabathi.
NGABA INDAODA ELUNGILE: Ke, besifuna ukujongana nento eyenzekileyo kwezi veki zimbalwa zidlulileyo ngezi ngxelo zibuthuntu zase China. Umongameli waseTshayina, uXi, watyhola i-United States ngokuthe ngqo ngokucinezela uphuhliso lwaseTshayina, kwintoni The Wall Street Journal ichazwa njenge, caphula, "ukukhalimela okungaqhelekanga komgaqo-nkqubo wase-US." U-Xi uthe, "Amazwe aseNtshona - ekhokelwa yi-US - aphumeze isiqulatho esijikelezileyo, ukusirhangqa kunye nokucinezelwa kuthi, ezisa imiceli mngeni engazange ibonwe kuphuhliso lwelizwe lethu."
Izimvo zikaXi zeza kwiintsuku nje emva kokuba iSebe lezangaphandle laseTshayina likhuphe ingxelo ephantse ibe yi-4,000 yamagama ”: https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/wjbxw/202302/t20230220_11027664.html II. Ingxelo yeSebe Lezangaphandle laseTshayina yaqala ngelithi, “Ukususela oko yaba lelona lizwe linamandla ehlabathini emva kweemfazwe ezimbini zehlabathi neMfazwe Yomlomo, iUnited States iye yasebenza ngenkalipho ngakumbi ukungenelela kwimicimbi yangaphakathi yamanye amazwe, isukela, ilondoloza yaye ixhaphaza igunya, ihambela phambili. ukubhukuqa nokungena, kunye nokulwa iimfazwe ngabom, ezisa ukwenzakala kuluntu lwezizwe ngezizwe. "
Umphathiswa Wezangaphandle waseTshayina uqhube wathi malunga ne-US, icaphula, "Iwugqithisile umbono wokhuseleko lwesizwe, yasebenzisa kakubi ulawulo lokuthumela ngaphandle kunye nokunyanzeliswa kwesohlwayo kwabanye. Liye lathabatha indlela ekhethayo kumthetho nemigaqo yamazwe ngamazwe, liyisebenzisa okanye liyilahla njengoko libona kufanelekile, yaye liye lafuna ukumisela imithetho ephumeza izilangazelelo zalo egameni lokuxhasa ‘ulungelelwaniso lwezizwe ngezizwe olusekelwe kwimithetho.’”
Ke, kuninzi apho- umphathiswa omtsha wezangaphandle, ingxelo yoMphathiswa wezaNgaphandle, uXi ngokwakhe ngoku esithi bazokwandisa uhlahlo lwabiwo-mali lomkhosi ngento efana ne-7% kulo nyaka.
ALFRED ifani McCOY: Ewe.
NGABA INDAODA ELUNGILE: Thetha ngolu tshintsho nendlela oyibona idlala ngayo.
ALFRED ifani McCOY: Ngokuqinisekileyo. Asizange siyibone i-rhetoric - i-rhetoric echasene neMelika evela eBeijing ngokwenene ukusukela kwiminyaka yoo-1960, xa uMao Zedong waba nomsindo neMoscow, kuba ngexesha lentlekele yaseCuba ye-missile ye-1962, i-China yayifuna iRashiya ukuba iqalise ukubetha kwenyukliya e-United States. Ufakelo lomjukujelwa eCuba. Kwaye leyo yayiyenye yezinto ezinegalelo, phakathi kwabaninzi, kodwa iseyinye into enegalelo ekuqhawukeni kokugqibela phakathi kweTshayina neRussia okubangele uqhekeko oludumileyo lweSino-Soviet. Ke, asizange siyibone i-rhetoric efana nale kwiminyaka engama-60. KULUNGILE? Ukusukela oko i-United States yamkela i-China ngo-1979 ngokwezozakuzo, ngokubanzi intetho ithobeke kakhulu, isokwe kakhulu.
Ke, yonke le yinxalenye yoxinzelelo olukhulayo lwaseTaiwan. Ngeendlela ezininzi, xa ukhupha uninzi lwezo ngxelo zaseTshayina, into oyifumanayo yeyona nto bathetha ngayo kukuba i-US icela umngeni kwibango laseTshayina kwiTaiwan njengenxalenye yelizwe laseTshayina. Kwaye eneneni, uMongameli uBiden, kwenye yeengxelo zakhe ezine kulo nyaka uphelileyo -, ndicinga ukuba, eyona ngxelo ixhokonxayo - yathi iTaiwan iyodwa kufuneka imisele ukuzimela kwayo. Kwaye olo yayilugqabhuko-dubulo olusisiseko koko kwaziwa ngokuba ngumgaqo-nkqubo we-One China. Xa sasiqaphela i-China ngokozakuzo ngo-1979, ibingumgaqo-nkqubo wamazwe amabini wase-U.S., phantsi koomongameli beRiphabhlikhi kunye neDemokhrasi - kwaye ungajongana nomntu ngamnye, oyithethileyo — bonke bebechasa inkululeko yaseTaiwan. Bathi kukho iChina enye. Ukufaneleka kuloo nto yayikukuba iUnited States yayingafuni ukuba iPeople’s Republic iwusombulule lo mbandela ngenkani. Kodwa iUnited States - wonke umongameli waseMelika, ukususela ekuqaphelisweni kweChina kwiminyaka engama-40 edlulileyo, iye yavumelana ngokupheleleyo: iTaiwan yinxalenye yeChina; kukho iTshayina enye. Kwaye ingxelo kaMongameli Biden, yokuba iTaiwan kufuneka imisele ukuzimela kwayo, kukuqhambuka kokwenyani, ikhefu lokwenyani kulo mgaqo-nkqubo wangaphandle we-bipartisan.
Kwaye iChina iphendule ngohlobo. Ngo-Okthobha ophelileyo, kwiNkongolo yeQela lama-20, uXi Jinping wenze, ngokwenene, ingxelo emangalisayo. Uthe amavili ajika adibanisa iTaiwan neChina. Kwaye into awayebhekisa kuyo yile mikhosi ye-dialectical, i-Marxian dialectical forces, ngokuqinisekileyo ithetha ukuba iTaiwan iya kuhlanganiswa ne-China. Kwaye njengoko isithandi sobulumko sezopolitiko uHannah Arendt wasifundisa, ukuba xa amazwe angoozwilakhe afana neTshayina ethetha ngokwemibandela yokungathinteleki, kulapho ekwazi khona ukulwa-ukuqhuba ubungendawo obungachazekiyo, ukubulawa kwabantu abaninzi, okanye ukungena kwiimfazwe ezingenakunqotshwa. Ke, kumacala omabini, sibona intetho ebukhali kakhulu eyinxalenye yale nkqubo yokulungiselela i-United States kunye neTshayina imfazwe malunga neTaiwan.
JUAN GONZÁLEZ: Kwaye bendifuna ukukubuza-ukuba imfazwe enjalo ibinokuqhambuka, ndiyazibuza indlela oza kusabela ngayo kwezinye iindawo zehlabathi, ngakumbi iGlobal South, ngokujonga inkcitho enkulu eyenziwe yiTshayina kwiBhanti yayo. kunye neNdlela yeNdlela kumazwe eAfrika iphela, eLatin America, eIndiya nakwezinye iindawo zehlabathi. Yintoni enokuthi- ingaphendula njani iGlobal South kungquzulwano olunjalo?
ALFRED ifani McCOY: Ewe, okokuqala, kuya kuxhomekeka kwindlela eyaqhambuka ngayo imfazwe. KULUNGILE? Kukho inani leetanki zokucinga eziye zadlala imfazwe yase-US-China imfazwe enokwenzeka phezu kweTaiwan. Enye imeko yeyokuba i-China inokuthi ibeke isithintelo kumasiko, isithi lo ngummandla wethu ozimeleyo kwaye akukho mntu unokuya ngqo eTaiwan. Kuya kufuneka ufowune kuqala, ngenqwelomoya okanye ngenqanawa, eTshayina, okanye esinye isibhengezo esifana neso, uze ukhalise isiqithi ngeenqanawa kunye neenqanawa ezintywilayo kunye neenqwelomoya ukuvala lonke unxibelelwano. Ngoku, ukuba oko kuyenzeka, i-China ingayenza loo nto ngokukhawuleza, kwimiba yeeyure. Kwaye oko kuya kuthetha ukuba i-United States, ukuze iphule loo mqobo, kuya kufuneka ihlanganise iinqwelo zayo ezivela e-Honolulu nase-Yokosuka e-Japan kwaye zihambe ngomkhumbi kwaye zihlasele iinqanawa zaseTshayina, zihamba ngomkhumbi kwizinto ezizibiza ngokuba ziyindawo yazo yamanzi.
Oko kuya kuthetha ukuba iUnited States ihlasela iTshayina. Besiya kuthi, phantsi kwezo meko, nokuba singathini — ehlabathini, besiya kujongeka njengomhlaseli. Konke kulungile? Ukuba sihlasela iinqanawa zaseTshayina kwinto eyiyo, ngokomgangatho waseTshayina, ngokwenene ngokwemigangatho yamazwe ngamazwe, iindawo zaseTshayina ezingqonge iTaiwan. Kwaye ke, zisuka nje, kuMzantsi weHlabathi, siyakubonwa singabahlaseli. Mhlawumbi singaphatha iYurophu kunye nathi phantsi kwe NATO umanyano. Kodwa ngaphaya koko, kuya kuba nzima kakhulu ngokwezopolitiko eUnited States.
Ngoku, ngokuchaseneyo, ukuba-enye imeko egqithileyo kukuba i-China iqalisa umbane, uhlaselo olukhulu lwe-amphibious ngaphesheya kweTaiwan Strait. I-China ineenqwelomoya ezingama-2,900. Ngoku banowona mkhosi wasemanzini mkhulu ehlabathini. Banomthamo owaneleyo wokwenza utyando olunjalo. Obo mthamo banda yonke imihla. Uyazi, ngoku, kwezinye iimeko, ukhuselo lwaseTaiwan luneentsuku ezintathu okanye ezine kulo ukuze luxhathise olu hlaselo. I-China ine- iPeople’s Republic of China ineenqwelo-moya ezingaphezu kwama-2,900; ITaiwan imalunga nama-470. Ke, uyazi, amaTshayina aneenqwelomoya ezine ukuze aphulukane nayo nganye yaseTaiwan. Ngoko-
NGABA INDAODA ELUNGILE: UNjingalwazi McCoy, sinemizuzwana engama-30.
ALFRED ifani McCOY: Ngoko, ngokuqinisekileyo, kuya kwenzeka ntoni kwimfazwe enjalo, i-China, ukuba imfazwe yayihamba ngendlela yaseChina, yayiza kubamba iTaiwan ngaphambi kokuba iinqwelo eziphambili ze-United States zifike zivela e-Honolulu. Kwaye kwimeko enjalo, iUnited States iya kuphinda ibe ngumhlaseli. Ingaphinda ibonakale ngathi sihlasela iTshayina. Kwaye sinokujongana nokugwetywa kwamazwe ngamazwe ngokwenza oko.
NGABA INDAODA ELUNGILE: UAlfred McCoy, unjingalwazi wembali kwiYunivesithi yaseWisconsin-Madison. Eyona ncwadi yakhe yamva nje inesihloko Ukulawula iHlabathi: iMiyalelo yeHlabathi kunye noTshintsho oluNcinci. Siza kudibanisa neyakho Qhekeza at TomDispatch enomxholo othi “Elunxwemeni Lwemfazwe kwiPasifiki?”
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