Eli liCandelo II lenqaku elithatyathwe kwintetho kaNoam Chomsky nge-28 kaFebruwari, exhaswa yi-Nuclear Age Peace Foundation eSanta Barbara, eCalifornia.
Inqaku langaphambili lihlolisise indlela ukhuseleko oluphambili ngayo kubacwangcisi bakarhulumente: ukhuseleko, oko kukuthi, kumandla karhulumente kunye ne-primary constituency, amandla abucala agxininisiweyo - konke oku kubandakanya ukuba umgaqo-nkqubo osemthethweni kufuneka ukhuselwe ekuhlolisweni koluntu.
Ngokwale miqathango, izenzo zikarhulumente zisebenza njengengqiqo, kubandakanywa nokuba nengqiqo kokuzibulala kwabantu bonke. Kwanokutshatyalaliswa okukhawulezileyo kwezixhobo zenyukliya akuzange kubekwe phezulu phakathi kwezinto ezixhalabisa urhulumente.
Ukwenza umzekelo kwiMfazwe Yomlomo kade: NgoNovemba ka-1983 i-US ekhokelwa yi-North Atlantic Treaty Organisation yaphehlelela umlo womkhosi oyilelwe ukuphonononga ukhuselo lomoya waseRussia, ukulinganisa uhlaselo lomoya nolwaselwandle kunye nesilumkiso senyukliya.
Ezi ntshukumo zenziwe ngexesha elinzima kakhulu. Imijukujelwa ye-Pershing II yayisasazwa eYurophu. UMongameli uReagan, osandul 'ukuvela kwintetho "yoBukhosi obubi", wayebhengeze iStrategic Defense Initiative, ebizwa ngokuba "Iimfazwe zeNkwenkwezi," apho amaRashiya ayeqonda ukuba sisixhobo sokuqala sokubetha - ukutolikwa okusemgangathweni kokukhusela imijukujelwa kumacala onke.
Ngokwemvelo ezi zenzo zibangele i-alamu enkulu eRashiya, eyathi, ngokungafaniyo ne-US, yayisengozini kwaye yayihlaselwe ngokuphindaphindiweyo.
Oovimba abasandul' ukukhutshwa babonisa ukuba ingozi yayiqatha ngakumbi kunokuba ababhali-mbali babecinga ngaphambili. Umsebenzi we-NATO "phantse waba yintshayelelo yokuthintela (iRashiya) isiteleka senyukliya," ngokutsho kwe-akhawunti kunyaka odlulileyo nguDmitry Adamsky kwi-Journal of Strategic Studies.
Kwaye oku yayingekuphela komnxeba osondeleyo. NgoSeptemba 1983, iinkqubo zaseRashiya zokulumkisa kwangethuba zabhalisa uqhankqalazo lwemijukujelwa olungenayo oluvela eUnited States lwaza lwathumela esona silumkiso siphezulu. Iprothokholi yomkhosi waseSoviet yayikukuziphindezela ngohlaselo lwalo lwenyukliya.
Igosa laseSoviet elalisemsebenzini, uStanislav Petrov, lavula isilumkiso sobuxoki, lagqiba ekubeni lingazixeli izilumkiso kubaphathi balo. Ngenxa yokutyeshela kwakhe umsebenzi, sisaphila ukuba singathetha ngesi sehlo.
Ukhuseleko lwabemi lwalungeyonto iphambili kakhulu kubacwangcisi beReagan kunabo bangaphambi kwabo. Ukungakhathali okunjalo kusaqhubeka ukuza kuthi ga ngoku, de kubeke ecaleni iingozi ezininzi eziphantse zibe yintlekele, ezihlaziywe kwincwadi entsha eyolisayo, ethi, โCommand and Control: Nuclear Weapons, the Damascus Accident, and the Illusion of Safety,โ nguEric Schlosser.
Kunzima ukukhuphisana nesiphelo somphathi wokugqibela we-Strategic Air Command, uGen. Lee Butler, ukuba uluntu ukuza kuthi ga ngoku luye lwasinda kwixesha lenyukliya โngokuhlanganiswa kobuchule, ithamsanqa nokungenelela kobuthixo, yaye ndikrokrela ukuba oku kulandelayo ngomlinganiselo omkhulu.โ
Ukwamkela kukarhulumente rhoqo, kulula ukwamkela izoyikiso zokusinda kuphantse kube yinto engaqhelekanga kakhulu ukuba ibhalwe ngamagama.
Ngowe-1995, emva kokuba iSoviet Union iwile, iUnited States Strategic Command, okanye iStratcom, ephethe izixhobo zenyukliya, yapapasha uhlolisiso oluthi, โEssentials of Post-Cold War Deterrence.โ
Isigqibo esisembindini sesokuba i-US kufuneka igcine ilungelo logwayimbo lwenyukliya lokuqala, nkqu nakumazwe angeyiyo eyenyukliya. Ngaphezu koko, izixhobo zenyukliya zimele zihlale zikhona, kuba โzizisithunzi kuyo nayiphi na intlekele okanye ungquzulwano.โ
Ngaloo ndlela izixhobo zenyukliya zisoloko zisetyenziswa, kanye njengokuba usebenzisa umpu ukuba uwujongile kodwa ungadubuli xa uphanga ivenkile โ ingongoma uDaniel Ellsberg, owakhupha amaphepha ePentagon, athe wayigxininisa ngokuphindaphindiweyo.
I-Stratcom iqhubela phambili ngokucebisa ukuba "abacwangcisi kufuneka bangaqiqi kakhulu malunga nokumisela ... ukuba umchasi uxabisa ntoni," zonke ezo kufuneka zijolise. โ[Mna] kubuhlungu ukuzichaza njengabantu abanengqondo ngokupheleleyo nabanengqondo epholileyo. . Ukuze i-US ingabi nangqiqo kwaye iphindezele ukuba izinto zayo ezibalulekileyo ziyahlaselwa kufuneka zibe yinxalenye yelizwe esilijongayo kubo bonke abachasi. "
โKuluncedo [kwiโฆkwimeko yethu yobuchule] ukuba ezinye izinto zinokubonakala ngathi 'zingalawuleki'โ โ kwaye ngaloo ndlela zibeke isoyikiso esithe gqolo sohlaselo lwenyukliya.
Akukho nto ingako kolu xwebhu ibhekiselele kwisinyanzelo esiphantsi kweSivumelwano sokuNganandeli ukwenza iinzame โzokholo oluhleโ lokuphelisa isibetho sezixhobo zenyukliya emhlabeni. Yintoni evakalayo, endaweni yoko, kukuhlengahlengiswa kwe-couplet ka-Hilaire Belloc edumileyo ngo-1898 malunga nompu weMaxim:
Nantoni na eyenzekayo sinayo,
Ibhombu yeAtom kwaye abanayo.
Izicwangciso zekamva azithembisi kwaphela. NgoDisemba iOfisi yoHlahlo-lwabiwo-mali yeCongressional yabika ukuba izixhobo zenyukliya zase-US ziya kuxabisa i-355 yeebhiliyoni zeerandi kule minyaka ilishumi izayo. NgoJanuwari iZiko likaJames Martin leZifundo zokuNgandeliyo liqikelele ukuba i-US iya kuchitha i-1 yetriliyoni yeedola kwizixhobo zenyukliya kwiminyaka engama-30 ezayo.
Kwaye ngokuqinisekileyo iUnited States ayiyodwa kugqatso lwezixhobo. Njengoko uButler waphawulayo, ngummangaliso okufutshane ukuba sisinde kwintshabalalo ukuza kuthi ga ngoku. Okukhona sihenda ikamva, kokukhona kuncipha ukuba sibe nethemba lokungenelela kukaThixo ukuze siqhubele phambili lo mmangaliso.
Kwimeko yezixhobo zenyukliya, ubuncinci siyazi ngokomgaqo indlela yokoyisa isoyikiso se-apocalypse: Ziphelise.
Kodwa enye ingozi eyoyikisayo ibeka isithunzi sayo kuko nakuphi na ukucinga ngekamva-intlekele yokusingqongileyo. Akucaci ukuba kukho ukubaleka, nangona ixesha silibazisa, kokukhona isoyikiso siba sibi kakhulu - hayi kwikamva elikude. Ukuzinikela koorhulumente kukhuseleko lwabantu babo ke ngoko kubonakaliswa ngokucacileyo yindlela abawulungisa ngayo lo mba.
Namhlanje iUnited States ikhala malunga "neminyaka eyi-100 yokuzimela kwamandla" njengoko ilizwe liba "yiSaudi Arabia yenkulungwane ezayo" - kunokwenzeka ukuba inkulungwane yokugqibela yempucuko yabantu ukuba imigaqo-nkqubo yangoku iyaqhubeka.
Omnye unokuthatha intetho kaMongameli Obama kwiminyaka emibini eyadlulayo kwidolophu yeoli yaseCushing, Okla., Ukuba lilizwi lokufa elicikizekileyo kwiintlobo.
Uvakalise ngokuzingca, eqhwaba izandla, ukuba โNgoku, phantsi kolawulo lwam, iMelika ivelisa i-oyile eninzi namhlanje kunanini na kule minyaka isibhozo idlulileyo. Oko kubalulekile ukwazi. Kule minyaka mithathu idlulileyo, ndiyalele abaphathi bam ukuba bavule izigidi zeehektare zokuhlola irhasi kunye neoyile kumazwe angama-23 ahlukeneyo. Sivula ngaphezulu kweepesenti ezingama-75 zemithombo yethu ye-oyile enokubakho kude nonxweme. Siliphindaphinde kane inani lezixhobo zokusebenza ukuya kwirekhodi eliphezulu. Songeze umbhobho omtsha we-oyile nerhasi owaneleyo wokujikeleza uMhlaba kunye neminye.โ
Ukuqhwatywa kwezandla kukwaveza into malunga nokuzinikela kukarhulumente kukhuseleko. Ingeniso yemizi-mveliso ngokuqinisekileyo iya kukhuseleka njengoko "ukuvelisa i-oyile eninzi kunye negesi apha ekhaya" iya kuqhubeka "iyinxalenye ebalulekileyo" yesicwangciso samandla, njengoko umongameli wathembisa.
Icandelo leenkampani liqhuba amaphulo amakhulu e-propaganda ukukholisa uluntu ukuba utshintsho lwemozulu, ukuba luyenzeka konke, aluveli kwimisebenzi yabantu. Ezi nzame zijolise ekoyiseni ukuba nengqiqo okugqithisileyo koluntu, oluqhubeka luzixhalabele izoyikiso izazinzulu ezizijonga kakhulu njengezisondeleleneyo neziyoyikeka.
Ukuyibeka ngokuthe kratya, kwizibalo zokuziphatha kobukapitali banamhlanje, ibhonasi enkulu ngomso iyodlula ikamva labazukulwana bakabani.
Ayintoni amathemba okusinda ngoko? Aziqaqambi. Kodwa impumelelo yabo baye bazabalaza kangangeenkulungwane zenkululeko enkulu kunye nobulungisa bashiya ilifa elinokuthi lithatyathwe kwaye liqhutyelwe phambili-kwaye kufuneka libe njalo, kwaye kwakamsinya, ukuba amathemba okusinda ngokufanelekileyo aya kugcinwa. Yaye akukho nto inokusixelela ngokucace ngakumbi ukuba siluhlobo olunjani lwezidalwa.
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