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[Qaphela kwangaphambili: olu luguqulelo olulungisiweyo, oluhlaziyiweyo lwenqaku elipapashwe kwi-CounterPunch, ngoJanuwari 30-31, 2022.][*]
Iingxaki zeDiplomacy yaseMbindi Mpuma: Ityala laseIran
Xa isivumelwano senyukliya ne-Iran safikelelwa yi-US-lead multilateral diplomacy ngo-2015, nangona inkcaso emandla evela ku-Israel, yajongwa ngokubanzi njengeyona mpumelelo yomgaqo-nkqubo wangaphandle ka-Obama kamongameli, kwaye ngesizathu esihle. Ikwabonise ukubanakho kwentsebenziswano yamandla amakhulu xa iimfuno zesizwe zihlangana ngokwaneleyo ngendlela exhasa ukulandelwa kokulungileyo kwingingqi kunye nehlabathi jikelele. Ngaloo mihla ngaphambi kokuba i-Washington i-strategists kunye nomgaqo-nkqubo welizwe langaphandle baphinde baphinde bafumane uvuyo lokujongana ne-geopolitical, kungekuphela nje amagunya amakhulu e-NATO (i-UK, iFransi, neJamani), kodwa ngakumbi, i-China ne-Russia, bajoyina njengabasayinileyo kwinto eyaziwayo ngelo xesha. njengeSivumelwano seNyukliya se-5 +1 sase-Iran okanye ngokulula, i-JCPOA (iSicwangciso esiDibeneyo sokuSebenza).
Into yokuba i-Iran yayizimisele ukucutha inkqubo yayo yenyukliya ngaphandle kokufuna imbuyekezo eyenziwa ngu-Israel isengumnqa. Kumashumi eminyaka ngaphambili u-Israyeli wayevunyelwe, eneneni wancedwa, ukuba afumane ngokufihlakeleyo iindlela zokuseka kunye nokuphuhlisa amandla ezixhobo zenyukliya ngaphandle kokuchasana nezizwe ngezizwe, waba ngowe-1967 okanye ngoko ke ilizwe lokuqala kuMbindi Mpuma ukuba nezixhobo zenyukliya, nangona ngobulumko, ukuba nezixhobo zenyukliya. banqande ihlazo kubakhuthazi bezopolitiko belizwe bendlela yokuchasa ukwanda kumngcipheko owenziwe zizixhobo zenyukliya. Bekuya kubonakala kunengqiqo ukuba i-Iran yamkele isimo sokuvuma ukuzibophelela kuMbindi Mpuma ongenanyukliya, nto leyo eyayiza kuba linyathelo elimangalisayo lokususa inyukliya kuMbindi Mpuma kuneJCPOA. Kwakutheni ukuze i-Iran iyeke ngo-2015 kwaye ngoku kwakhona, nokuba kukho ubunkokeli obuqinileyo kurhulumente wayo? Mhlawumbi, ngenxa yokuba iinkokeli zase-Irani zaziqonda ukuba akukho themba lokukhululeka kwezohlwayo ukuba kwakuxhomekeke ekuzimiseleni kukaSirayeli ukuncama ubume bayo njengelizwe lezixhobo zenyukliya. Ngaloo ndlela, isivumelwano sika-2015 sinokutolikwa njengoloyiso lwediplomatic yi-P-5 + 1 ekunciphiseni i-ajenda yothethathethwano, kwaye ngakumbi i-US, okanye njengomqondiso wokuba i-Iran yayikulungele ukuvala amehlo ayo ekungabi nangqiqo. ifuna izithintelo kwinkqubo yayo yenyukliya lo gama ingahoyi ukophulwa okukhulu kakhulu kwemithetho yokuziphatha engokwandiswa kwemilinganiselo yokuziphatha eyenziwe nguSirayeli kwisithuba seminyaka emininzi. I-Iran ebonakala izimisele ukwamkela intengiso enjalo inokuchazwa kuphela ngokubaluleka okuphezulu okunikwe ukuphelisa ukutshatyalaliswa koluntu okwenziwa zisohlwayo. Kubonakala ngathi iingxoxo zaseVienna zika-2021-2022 phakathi kwabalandeli abahlanu be-JCPOA (kunye neengxoxo ezingathanga ngqo ne-US) ngokufanayo azikhange zijongane neemfuno zokujongana nenyukliya yakwaSirayeli, mhlawumbi ngezizathu ezifanayo.
Kutheni le nto lo mboniso wonxibelelwano olwakhayo wenzeke kummandla wehlabathi, oquka ukujongelwa phantsi kwezixhobo zenyukliya zakwaSirayeli kunye nokuma kwayo ukuze kuncitshiswe ukungavisisani ngokubhekiselele kwi-Iran, ekudala yaba yindawo enkulu yomzabalazo, iingxwabangxwaba, kunye nemfazwe. Iimfazwe zamaxesha athile ukususela ngowe-1979? Ndicinga ukuba eyona ntshukumisa iphambili yayikukuthintelwa kwemfazwe kuMbindi Mpuma kunye nenkolelo yokuba i-JCPOA ibe negalelo kwiinjongo ezipheleleyo zokungaqhawuki kwaye ngenxa yoko ithintele ugqatso lwezixhobo zengingqi ngama-Arabhu amakhulu ukuba afumane izixhobo zenyukliya kwimeko apho i-Iran yawela umda wenyukliya.
Uqwalaselo lwesibini oluphenjelelwa kukungaphumeleli kolawulo lwe-Iraq 'lokukhuthaza idemokhrasi' ekutshintsheni ungenelelo luka-2003 yayikukunciphisa inqanaba lokuzibandakanya komkhosi waseMelika kunye nezopolitiko kuMbindi Mpuma. Inyathelo le-2015 lokunciphisa i-Iran njengento ephambili yokujongana nayo yabonwa njengeququzelela i-'pivot ye-Asia eyacetyiswa ngu-Obama.
Ukubhengeza le pivot kwaba ngumyalezo obhalwe ngokwelizwe 'lokulwa neTshayina kuLwandle lwaseTshayina.' Hayi indlela ekwahluke ngayo isimo sengqondo kunye nezopolitiko ukuba u-Obama endaweni yoko wakhetha 'i-pivot eMelika!' Kwaye nangoku isenokungashiywa lixesha ukuba ajike kumkhosi wehlabathi, nangona u-Biden, ephoxekile ekufezekiseni izithembiso zakhe zephulo ngamaRiphabhlikhi ngaphambili, ngoku kubonakala ngathi uzimisele ekujongeni iRussia, i-Iran, ne China, zonke Kanye. I-Biden ibonakala ilangazelela iintsuku zakudala ze-geopolitics egcwele intlekele yeMfazwe ebandayo enezona ndawo zifanelekileyo zokujongana ngoku iUkraine, i-Iran kunye neTaiwan.
Inzuzo esecaleni yesivumelwano sika-2015, engazange iphawulwe rhoqo, yayikukunika abamodareyitha e-Iran uloyiso olukhulu ngendlela yokuphumeza isiqabu sezohlwayo, iiakhawunti zebhanki ezingakhenkcezisiweyo, kunye nendlela eya kwimeko yesiqhelo kubudlelwane babo bangaphandle. Isivumelwano sachaswa ngamandla ngelo xesha ngu-Israel kunye nabaxhasi bakhe, kunye ne-hawkish kudidi lwezopolitiko e-US. Iingxabano zabo eziphambili yayikukuba i-Iran iya kukhululeka ekutyebeni kunye nemida ye-centrifuge ngo-2030 kwaye isivumelwano asizange sibandakanye isibambiso esinyanzeliswa sase-Iranian sokuphelisa inkxaso yabadlali bezopolitiko abachasene no-Israel, abachasene neSaudi, kunye nabachasene neMelika kwiimeko zongquzulwano zengingqi njengoko. kunye nokubeka izithintelo kwinkqubo yayo yemijukujelwa. I-Iran inyanzelise ngokungqongqo ukwahlula idiplomacy malunga nenkqubo yayo yenyukliya kukuzibandakanya kwayo kwezopolitiko kwezopolitiko zengingqi kunye nokuma kwayo kukhuseleko lwelizwe. Ngokwenyani, nangona izimisele ukuyihoya inyukliya yakwa-Israeli, i-Iran ayizimiselanga kwaphela ukuguqula ukuzimela kwayo ngokubhekiselele kumgaqo-nkqubo wangaphandle okanye.
Ngokunxulumene nezinto ezingezizo ezenyukliya kubume bayo bokhuseleko lwesizwe.
Xa uTrump weza ngo-2017, ukutyhilwa kwe-JCPOA yayisisigqibo ebesilindelwe ngaphambili, ekhokelwa kakhulu okanye ngaphezulu sisigqibo sakhe sokuziphindezela sokucima ilifa lika-Obama ngeendlela ezenzelwe ukuthoba isidima kunye nokujongela phantsi impumelelo yomanduleli wakhe, ngelixa efumana indumiso evela kwa-Israyeli, amalungu amaninzi. yeNkongolo yase-US, kunye namajoni angaphakathi naphuma kurhulumente. I-Trump ngandlel 'ithile yasigxeka isivumelwano njengecala elinye kwicala le-Iran, ukungcatshwa kwezilangazelelo zokhuseleko zakwaSirayeli, kwaye ngaloo ndlela ibiza ukutshintshwa ngolungiselelo olungqongqo, okanye ngokwengqondo yakhe yentengiselwano, 'isivumelwano esingcono.' NgoMeyi ka-2018 uTrump wayirhoxisa i-US kwisivumelwano, kwalandela uJuni ngokuphinda kuhlaziywe izohlwayo, ezathi kamva zaqiniswa ngakumbi zibangela umonakalo omkhulu kuqoqosho lwase-Iran nabemi basekuhlaleni. Ezi ntshukumo zonke zaziyinxalenye yendlela ebanzi ye-Iran eyathi yaziwa ngokuba 'luxinzelelo olukhulu.' Iinkokeli zakwaSirayeli zaqhwaba izandla. Ngokwahlukileyo koko, ukugatywa kwe-JCPOA akuzange kuxatyiswe ngabanye abasayinileyo abahlanu, kunye nokudodobalisa ngokunzulu ummandla kunye nokubetha isibetho esibi kurhulumente wohlaziyo eTehran ekhokelwa nguMongameli uHassan Rouhani, enesiphumo sokuvula amasango ombutho. Uloyiso luka-Ebrahim Raisi kunyulo luka-2021. Ikwakhokelele kwisenzo sokuziphindezela yi-Iran, ngakumbi ukuhlaselwa kweetanki zeoyile kwiGulf of Oman.
E-Tehran oku kubuyela kwiintsuku zangaphambi kwe-2015 kwathathwa njengesiqinisekiso sokuba iNtshona, ngakumbi i-US, ayinakuthenjwa ukuba igcine ilizwi layo kwaye ithathwa njengobungqina bokuba iWashington yahlala izimisele ukuzisa urhulumente wase-Iran ukuba aguqe. ukulandela i-ajenda yayo yezopolitiko. UTrump ukwagunyazise ukubulawa kukaGeneral Qasim Soleimani ekuqaleni kuka-2020, eyona nkokeli idumileyo yaseIran kwaye ebonwa njengomongameli welizwe elizayo. Kwimeko enjalo uSirayeli waziva enesibindi ngokwaneleyo ukuba abulale izazinzulu zenyukliya eziphambili zase-Iran kwaye azibandakanye kuhlaselo olungekho mthethweni kwizixhobo zakhe zenyukliya ngaphandle kweziphumo ezibi.
Njengoko bekulindelekile, i-Iran nangona inike abasayini be-JCPOA abaseleyo ngonyaka ukuba boyise ukurhoxa kwe-US, ekugqibeleni yaphendula ngokunyusa ngokuthe ngcembe ukutyetyiswa kwepetroli ye-uranium eyayikufutshane ngamanqanaba ebakala lezixhobo, ekuxelwe ukuba ifikelele kwi-60% kunye nokufakwa okuphezulu. umgangatho we-centrifuges. Ngaphandle kwala manyathelo, i-Iran iphinde yaphinda injongo yayo yokungaphuhlisi izixhobo zenyukliya ngamaxesha amaninzi, kwaye iinkonzo zobuntlola zaseNtshona ziqinisekisile ukuba akukho bungqina bokuba i-Iran yayizimisele ukuba lilizwe lezixhobo zenyukliya kwixesha elizayo. U-Israyeli kunye nabaxhasi bakhe bakhuphe ingxelo eyothusayo ebonisa ukuba i-Iran yayisele iiveki nje kuphela ukuba ibe nebhombu, kwaye yayizimisele ukuba lilizwe lezixhobo zenyukliya.
Xa uTrump woyiswayo kwaye uBiden wonyulwa ngo-2020, kwacingelwa ukuba yinto nje yexesha de isiVumelwano sika-2015 sibuyiselwe, kwaye senziwa kwakhona ukusebenza. Ngapha koko, uBiden wayethembise ukwenza njalo ngalo lonke ixesha lakhe lokuba ngumongameli. Kuye kwacaca ukuba akulula ukwenza, ngokuyinxenye ngenxa yokuba kwakukho ukutyhaleka okuninzi okuvela kwa-Israyeli kunye namaRiphabhlikhi, kunye nokungabikho komdla kwicala leeDemocrats ezininzi. Okwangoku, ubunkokeli e-Iran batshintsha, kunye nomfundisi olondolozayo, u-Ebrahim Raisi onyulwe ngokulula ukuba athathe indawo kaRouhani ekuqaleni kuka-2021. Kuyafaneleka ukuqaphela ukuba uRaisi wayengummeli wangaphambili weTrump wokuthandabuza malunga nobulumko bokuzama ukufikelela kwi-diplomatic. indawo yokuhlala kunye neNtshona. Ngaphandle kwale mvelaphi, emva kokunyulwa kukaRaisi ubonakale evuleleke ekubuyiseleni i-JCPOA, ukanti ukonwabisa olu khetho ngomoya oqondakalayo wokulumkisa, ukukrokra, kunye nokuqina. Ngaphandle koxinzelelo oluvela eWashington, i-Iran yalile ukuza kuthi ga ngoku ukubandakanyeka kwiingxoxo ezithe ngqo, ngoku kumjikelo wabo wesibhozo, kunye ne-US eVienna. Amagosa ase-Iranian axelele amajelo eendaba ukuba i-Iran ilindele iimpawu ezithembekileyo ezivela e-US ukuba ikulungele ukususa zonke izigwebo ngaphandle kwemiqathango ehamba kunye neziqinisekiso zokuba ayisayi kuphinda ihoxise kulo naliphi na ilungiselelo ekuvunyelwene ngalo. Nje ukuba kubonakaliswe ukuzimisela okunjalo, ukuba kunjalo, i-Iran iya kuvuma ukuthetha ngqo. Kuze kube ngoko, iya kuxoxa imiba ngokuthe ngqo kuphela noorhulumente babasayinileyo abahlanu abaseleyo, oko kukuthi, i-5 + 1 thabatha i-US, ivumela abasayiniweyo ukuba basebenze njengabalamleli kwisiphi isixa kwiingxoxo zangaphambili kunye neWashington injongo yazo. kubonakala ngathi ukuvumela uTehran ukuba aqinisekise ukuba iingxoxo ze-US zibuyela kwisakhelo se-2015 ziya kuba neziqhamo. I-Iran ibonakala izimisele ukuba ayibonakali ibuthathaka kangangokuba yamkele naliphi na ilungiselelo i-US elinyanzeliswa kulo, okanye ibe kwindawo yokuboniswa njengesaphuli-mthetho xa isala iimeko ezibekwe ngabaxoxisi baseMelika.
Ngaphaya kwemiqobo eyayanyaniswa nokwanelisa izityholo zokhuseleko luka-Israyeli kunye nokuzimisela kokungazibandakanyi kumanyathelo omgaqo-nkqubo wamazwe angaphandle aphikisanayo, uBiden wafuna kwiinyanga zokuqala zobongameli bakhe ukuba agxile kwimiba yasekhaya, ngakumbi ukudodobala kwezentlalo noqoqosho kulo bhubhani. Oku kwakuthetha ukuphepha kwanokubonakala kwekhefu kunye no-Israyeli, okunceda ukucacisa ukuba kutheni i-White House yenza uthotho lweempawu ezingaqhelekanga eziphezulu zokuqinisekisa u-Israyeli ukuba i-US ayiyi kwenza unilaterally ekuxoxweni ngokutsha kokuthatha inxaxheba kwi-2015 Isivumelwano, kodwa iza kulungelelanisa ne-Israel iinzame zayo zothethathethwano zokubuyisela i-JCPOA. Ekuphela kwendlela yokuba i-Biden ifumane inqanaba elinjalo lokuvunywa ngu-Israyeli kwisivumelwano senyukliya esibuyiselweyo kunye ne-Iran kukuba amalungiselelo amatsha abonakala eqinisa imiqobo yesicatshulwa sowama-2015 ngokususa amagatya okutshona kwelanga aphelisa iimpawu ezibalulekileyo zesivumelwano, kunye nokubandakanya Ukubeka iliso okungqongqo ngakumbi kunye neenkqubo zokuqinisekisa zokuvavanya ukuthotyelwa kwezithintelo ezisisigxina kuphuculo, uvavanyo, ukugcinwa kwempahla, kunye ne-centrifuges. I-US iphinde yaphawula ukuba isantya sokupheliswa kwezohlwayo siya kukhawuleziswa ukuba i-Iran iphinde yathembisa ukurhoxisa iindibano zayo zezopolitiko ezichasene neemfuno zobukumkani be-Gulf, i-Israel kunye ne-US. Olu thethathethwano lwe-Iran ngoku lubangela ingxaki kwiminqweno yaseNtshona eSyria, eIraq, eYemen, eJiphethe, eLebhanon naseGaza.
Imiba yomxholo
Okubaluleke kakhulu kukuvuma kunye nokufaneleka kokuhoxiswa kweTrump kwisivumelwano se-2015 kuba yena (elandela ukukhuthazwa kukaSirayeli) wayecinga ukuba yinto embi. Ngenxa yokuba i-Iran yasabela, ekuqaleni ngononophelo, ngethemba lezenzo ezithile zembuyekezo ezivela kumazwe aseYurophu, ezingazange zenzeke. Kubonakala ngathi i-Iran ifuna ukuba isivumelwano siphile ekurhoxisweni kwe-US, kodwa hayi ngeendleko zokunyamezela uhlaziyo lwezohlwayo. Ngomzamo wangoku wokubuyisela i-JCPOA i-US yenza ngokungathi ayinatyala i-Iran ukuba icele uxolo kwi-Iran kodwa ifuna ukumisela imeko yokuhlaziywa kokuthatha inxaxheba ekwamkelweni kwe-Iran kwisivumelwano esitsha esinemiqathango ngakumbi, iinjongo zomgaqo-nkqubo ngokuyinxenye zichazwe kwiimeko zasekhaya. . Nantoni na engaphantsi, iya kuhlaselwa ngokuphandle ngabaTrumpists kunye no-Israyeli, ubuncinci nguNetanyahu okhokelwa yi-Likud iqela eliphikisayo.
Iimpawu zezopolitiko zaseMelika bekufanele ukuba zibekwe ecaleni kwidiplomacy yaseVienna, kwaye zinganyuswanga ulindelo malunga nokuba bekufanelekile ukuba kufuneke eIran. Ukuba le nto yayingenakwenzeka kwezopolitiko, uBiden ngewayekulungele ukuvuma ukuba iphulo lakhe lokubuyisela intatho-nxaxheba yaseMelika kwi-JCPOA yayingathathelwa ngqalelo. Emva kwayo yonke loo nto, ngokwembono yase-Iran bekuya kuba sengqiqweni ukulindela ukuba kungekuphela nje uxolo kunye nembuyekezo ethile ngomonakalo owenziwe kuluntu lwase-Iran ngenxa yezohlwayo zasemva kwe-2018. Endaweni yoko iWashington yenza ngokungathi yenzela i-Iran ubabalo ngokujoyina kwakhona kwaye yi-Iran ekufuneka ikulungele ukwamkela ukuthatha inxaxheba kwe-US ngakumbi.
Kubalulekile ukuqonda umxholo obanzi wesivumelwano se-2015 kunye nomzamo wokuhlaziya ukuthotyelwa yi-US kunye ne-Iran kunye okanye ngaphandle kokuguqulwa kwemimiselo yayo. Ukuqala, njengoko kukhankanyiwe, iqela le-5 + 1 kufuneka liqonde ukuba ukuzimisela kwe-Iran ukunqanda inkqubo yenyukliya ngaphandle kokubhekisela kwizixhobo zenyukliya zakwaSirayeli, yenze isivumelwano esikhulu ngaphandle kokuba iingxoxo zingabi nasiqhamo kwasekuqaleni. Kufuneka kuxatyiswe ukuba inkxalabo yokwenyani yokungabhebhetheki, uzinzo lwengingqi, kunye nokulingana kwamazwe bekuya kwenza ukuba kube sengqiqweni ukuba i-Iran inyanzelise ukuchithwa kwenyukliya kwa-Israeli kwangaphambili okanye uthethathethwano oluhambelanayo loMbindi Mpuma we-Nuclear Free Zone. Ngaphezu koko, indlela equkayo enjalo yokuphelisa inyukliya kwingingqi ibiya kunceda ingingqi nehlabathi jikelele. Kwangaxeshanye, ukuba i-Iran ibeke umqathango wothethathethwano olucutha inkqubo yayo yenyukliya ngokunxulumana nezixhobo zenyukliya zakwaSirayeli kuya kuthintela naziphi na iinzame zozakuzo zokuphelisa ukubandezeleka kwe-Iran kwizigwebo. Kubonakala ngathi ngokuqinisekileyo u-Israyeli uyakwala yonke imizamo yokubuza imibuzo malunga nokuma kokhuseleko lwesizwe, kuquka ilungelo lakhe lokuba nezixhobo zenyukliya, kwaye phantse ngokuqinisekileyo ukuba i-US kunye neYurophu aziyi kubeka uxinzelelo ku-Israyeli ukuba adibanise ubudlelwane bakhe kunye. izixhobo ngemizamo yokuqinisekisa ukuba inkqubo yenyukliya yase-Iran ayizange igqithe kumda wenyukliya.
Okunxulumene noku, kukungaphumeleli kwe-Iran kwintetho yayo yasesidlangalaleni yokumisela ukuzimisela kwayo ukwamkela ulawulo lwamazwe ngamazwe ukuba lubotshelelwe ekwamkelweni nguSirayeli kunye ne-US yokuzibophelela ekunqandeni kwiinzame zokudodobalisa ukujongela phantsi igunya likarhulumente wase-Iranian okanye ukonakalisa. izixhobo zayo zenyukliya ngemisebenzi efihlakeleyo. Ngamanye amazwi, i-Iran ayizange ibeke umqathango wokuthatha inxaxheba kwayo kwisivumelwano sika-2015 okanye ukuhlaziywa kwayo kwintlonipho yamalungelo ayo angawongamileyo njengoko kumiselwe phantsi komthetho wamazwe ngamazwe. Oku kwakhona kuluphawu olunentsingiselo lokubaluleka kwe-Iran enamathela kuncedo lwezohlwayo kunye nokuqhelaniswa ngokubanzi.
Ngeli xesha lokungaqiniseki kwezopolitiko, idiplomacy yase-Iran ayizange ibe yinto nje. Uhlaselo lwangoJanuwari lwe-drone e-Abu Dhabi yimikhosi yabavukeli baseHouthi eYemen kucingelwa ukuba eNtshona lwenziwe ngemvume yeTehran, kwaye inokucingelwa njengento yokuhlaselwa kwamaSirayeli ngamaxesha athile kunye nezoyikiso ezijoliswe e-Iran, kunye nokuthoba amandla. impendulo kwiintshukumo ezichasene ne-Iranian ze-monarchies zaseGulf. Nokuba ngaba amahlakani ezopolitiko e-Iran kulo mmandla anokuthathwa ngokuba 'njengee-Iran proxies,' njengoko kubangwa kumajelo eendaba aseNtshona, kuyathandeka ngandlel' ithile.
Ngokwembono yaseNtshona, iinzame zase-Iranian zokungahoyi imiqobo ye-JCPOA zibonakala ngathi zicebisa umnqweno we-Iran ukuba ubuncinci ube ngumbuso wezixhobo zenyukliya, oko kukuthi, okwaziyo ukufumana izixhobo zenyukliya kwisithuba seeveki. Kuhleli kungacacanga malunga nokuba i-Iran ifuna amandla kwinkqubo yothethathethwano eqhubekayo ngoku okanye idanile ekwamkeleni izithintelo ukutshintshiselana ngezithembiso ezihexayo zezohlwayo ngenxa yokurhoxa kukaTrump ngo-2018, kunye nokusilela kwamanye amaqela kwisivumelwano. ngenelela ukuthomalalisa ukubekwa kwezohlwayo eziqatha. Ngenxa yale mbali, kubonakala kusengqiqweni ukuba i-Iran ifune ukuzibophelela ngokuchasene nokurhoxa okanye ukuphinda kubuyiselwe izohlwayo, nangona
ayinakuphunyezwa ngokwezicwangciso-nkqubo zomgaqo-siseko wezizwe ezi-5 + 1. Umzekelo, ukuba uTrump uphinde wanyulwa ngo-2024, kubonakala ngathi uqinisekile ukuba uza kuphinda iintshukumo zakhe zika-2018 ngaphandle komqobo onentsingiselo wangaphakathi wezomthetho okanye wezopolitiko, ngakumbi xa enikwa uninzi lolondolozo kwiNkundla ePhakamileyo yase-US. Ukuba isivumelwano esibuyiselweyo sithathe uhlobo lwesivumelwano samazwe ngamazwe, ukuqina kwaso ngokomthetho kunokwandiswa, kodwa isixhobo esinjalo siya kufuna ukungeniswa kwiinkqubo zoqinisekiso lwamazwe athatha inxaxheba. Imfuno enjalo ngokungathandabuzekiyo iya kutshabalalisa isivumelwano njengoko amaRiphabhlikhi kwiCongress yase-US, mhlawumbi ngoncedo oluvela kwamanye amaDemokhrasi, aya kuvala ukuqinisekiswa, okunokuthi kuyo nayiphi na isiganeko kuya kufuneka kuzuze uninzi lwe-2 / 3rds kwi-Senate.
Umxholo obanzi akufuneki ungahoywa. Ukubeka izohlwayo kwi-Iran ngokunxulumene nenkqubo yayo yenyukliya akukho mthethweni njengoko nesivumelwano sokunganyangeki singabi nazithintelo ezinjalo, sisenza eso sohlwayo sisenzo sonyanzeliso esingekho mthethweni. Ngaphaya koku, izixhobo zenyukliya ezikhankanyiweyo zivela kwimbono yomthetho wamazwe ngamazwe ngumcimbi wokuzithandela. I-NPT inika amaqela akwisivumelwano ilungelo lokurhoxa ngokwesiseko seminqweno yokhuseleko lwesizwe oluphezulu oluya kuchazwa ngengcaciso esemthethweni. U-Israel uye waxhathisa uxinzelelo lokujoyina i-NPT, enokuthi isuse amandla ayo okuzifihla emva kokwala ukuvuma okanye ukukhanyela ukuba nezixhobo zenyukliya.
I-Geopolitical Spillovers
Ukuba isivumelwano besiza kubuyiselwa ngaphakathi kwesakhelo se-JCPOA ngohlengahlengiso oluncinci, kwaye emva koko siphunyezwe, kubandakanywa umboniso wentlonipho ethe cwaka eboniswa nguSirayeli kwaye, okona kubaluleke kakhulu, ukuba isiqabu sezohlwayo esithenjisiweyo siyeza kwaye siphunyezwe ngokukhawuleza, ukuba nokwenzeka kozinzo. ifuthe kubudlelwane bengingqi kunye nehlabathi linganyuka kakhulu. Iyakomeleza isikhundla sezopolitiko sikaRaisi eIran, ibanga ukuba ukuzinza okukhulu kwezopolitiko kuvelisa iziphumo ezingcono.
Ukuba iingxoxo zaseVienna ziyasilela, nangona kunjalo, amathemba okunyuka koxinzelelo lwengingqi anokwenzeka, athathe uhlobo lokuqinisa amaqhinga okulwa ne-Iranian, ukugcinwa kwezohlwayo, kunye nokutyhala okusebenzayo kwe-Iranian ngendlela yokuqinisekisa amandla ayo kwiindawo ezishushu zengingqi. . Ukubakho kolungelelwaniso lwe-Iran kunye neRussia kunye ne-China kuya kuba yinto enokwenzeka, esele ifanekiselwa kwangaphambili zizivumelwano zorhwebo zexesha elide, utyelelo lozakuzo olukumgangatho ophezulu, kunye noqeqesho lwakutsha nje loqeqesho lwaselwandle. Kwakhona, ubunkokeli be-Raisi mhlawumbi buqiniswa libango lokuba i-diplomacy ayiphumelelanga, itolikwa njengebonisa ukungafuni kukaRaisi ukuba awele kuhlobo lomgibe owenzekayo xa ubunkokeli obuphakathi bukaRouhani bathatha i-bait enetyhefu ngo-2015. iindlela ezizezinye zezopolitiko ezinokuthi zithomalalise ubunzima bezoqoqosho ekudala befunyanwa ngabantu baseIran nazo ziya kusebenzela inzuzo kaRaisi.
Isimo sika-Israyeli kwisigaba saso se-Netanyahu esithelekisekayo sibonisa ukuqhubeka kokuma kwakhe kobutshaba e-Iran obubandakanya idiplomacy yokunyanzeliswa kunye nogwayimbo lwasemkhosini, kudityaniswe nomzamo omkhulu wokwandisa izivumelwano zesiqhelo, eyayisisipho sokugqibela sikaTrump ku-Israyeli, siqinisekiswa ngamandla. ubunkokheli beBiden. Umongameli wakwaSirayeli, u-Isaac Herzog, utyelelo lukaJanuwari kwi-UAE ubonise zombini ukulwa kunye nomoya wokuzithemba emva kokuqhelaniswa kwe-Israel. Ngelixa wayetyelele โiSheik Zayed Grand Mosque e-Abu Dhabi wathetha la mazwi othusayo: โZimbini kuphela ezinye iindlela kulo mmandla. Olunye luxolo, impumelelo, intsebenziswano, utyalo-mali oludibeneyo kunye nekamva elihle ebantwini, okanye ngenye indlela, okanye enye into eyenziwa yi-Iran, ephazamisa ummandla kunye nokusebenzisa iiproxies zayo ukusebenzisa uloyiko. " Olu hlobo lolwimi lubilisa kwi-normalization ye-Israel, ukujongana ne-Iran, imikhosi yozinzo ngokuchasene nemikhosi yesiphithiphithi kunye noloyiko, okulungileyo ngokuchasene nobubi.
Ngokungathi ndiqinisekisa uloyiko lwam olubi kakhulu, u-Israyeli waqhuba ekuqaleni kukaFebruwari umkhosi omkhulu womoya uqhubela elunxwemeni ukulinganisa oko Amaxesha amaSirayeli ebizwa ngokuba 'luhlaselo olukhulu' kwizixhobo zenyukliya zase-Iran. Olu qheliselo lwasemkhosini lubandakanya intaphane yeejethi zokulwa ze-F-15, i-D-16, kunye ne-F-35, kwaye ibonise into eyayichazwa njengobukho obungaqhelekanga begosa loMkhosi woMoya wase-US 'njengomkhi-mkhiqizi' wolo hlobo lokuzilolonga lwasemkhosini. Phakathi kweendlela zokuziqhelanisa ezivavanyiweyo yayiyimisebenzi ye-refueling ephakathi emoyeni, ugwayimbo olude lwasemkhosini, kunye neempendulo kumlilo ochasene nenqwelomoya. Esi siganeko sixhokonxayo saqiniswa luhlahlo lwabiwo-mali olongezelelweyo lwakwaSirayeli ukuxhasa ngemali amalungiselelo ohlaselo lomkhosi e-Iran kunye nengxelo esemthethweni yeNkulumbuso, uNaftali Bennett, ukuba kungakhathaliseki ukuba isivumelwano sifikelelwe eVienna, uSirayeli unelungelo lokukhusela abemi balo. indlela azikhethele yona. Ukuthula okumangalisayo kwe-Biden / Blinken ebusweni bale nkululeko yomkhosi kunye nokubethelwa kwegubu lomkhosi ngu-Israel kufanele ukuba baphazamise kakhulu bonke abo banqwenela uzinzo, uxolo kunye nobulungisa kuMbindi Mpuma. Ukuthula kwimeko enjalo kuthetha ukubandakanyeka kwizoyikiso ezingekho mthethweni zokubandakanyeka ekusebenziseni izigalo ngokurhabaxa okunefuthe elibi kuxolo nokhuseleko lommandla.
UkuQwalasela uMkhanya
Sekulixesha eladlulayo lokuba iNtshona ikwazi ukumelana nonxunguphalo malunga nesiphumo sovukelo-mbuso lwase-Iran olwazisa umbutho odumileyo okhokelwa ngu-Ayatollah Khomeini kulawulo ekuqaleni kuka-1979. Ngo-2015 i-JCPOA yabonakala ilinyathelo kwelo cala, kungekudala iza konakaliswa. ngokuziphatha kukaTrump okuphazamisayo. Ngomongameli omtsha uRhulumente wase-US wabekwa ukuba athathe inyathelo lokuvuselela i-JCPOA, esebenza ngeendlela eziya kuvelisa ithemba lokusa kobudlelwane obunoxolo kuMbindi Mpuma, ukuphela kosizi olude lwe-Afghan, i-Iranian, I-Iraq, iSiriya kunye nabantu basePalestina. Ngelishwa, ukucinga ukuba uhlalutyo lwam luchanekile, eli nyathelo linqwenelekayo ngoku libonakala lingenakwenzeka kakhulu. Ulawulo lwe-Biden lubonakala lungafuni ukwamkela naluphi na uxanduva lwase-US lokuqhekeka kwesivumelwano sika-2015, kwaye ngokungekho ngqiqweni ulindele ukuba i-Iran iqale kwindawo yoxanduva lokusebenzisana, okanye okubi ngakumbi, ngaphandle kokuthathela ingqalelo into yokuba i-JCPOA isebenze kakuhle de i-US irhoxe. USirayeli usabambelele nkqi. Kwaye abantu basePalestine, abathe baphathwa ngokungalunganga njengababukeli abangenamdla, sele bephoxekile sisigqibo sikaBiden sokuhamba kunye namaqela amaninzi acacileyo axhasa u-Israyeli ngexesha lobumongameli bukaTrump. Bubudenge ukulindela nantoni na engakumbi kwi-Biden kunesitayile esilinganiselweyo somanyano lwe-pro-Israeli, kunye nezilungiso ezimbalwa malunga nendlela uTrump aququzelela ngayo ukwanda okungekho mthethweni kwa-Israeli. Ngokubhekiselele kuzo zombini i-Iran, i-Israel, kunye nePalestina, umyalezo obalulekileyo othunyelwe bunkokheli obutsha kukuqhubekeka xa kuziwa kwizinto ezidityaniswe nokuphinda kuqaliswe ukunyanzeliswa kwe-pre-Trump yediplomacy equi-distance xa kufikwa ekufuneni indawo ezinzileyo. uxolo.
[*] URichard Falk nguNjingalwazi we-International Law Emeritus, kwiYunivesithi yasePrinceton; USihlalo woMthetho weHlabathi, uKumkanikazi uMaryUniversity London; umbhali we Ubukrelekrele boLuntu: Ubomi bommi wohambo ngezonqulo (Clarity Press, 2001).
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