Ukuba sijonga emva kwiimfazwe ezinkulu zenkulungwane yangaphambili kwaye sijonge phambili kumngcipheko okhulayo wemfazwe eyaliwa ngezixhobo zenyukliya, kukho umsantsa omnye obalaseleyo kuhlalutyo nokuqonda. Lo msantsa kulwazi lwam alufane luvunywe, okanye luxoxwe, ziinkokeli zopolitiko okanye lujongwe kumaqonga eendaba aphambili ekucingelwa ukuba azimeleyo eNtshona. Enyanisweni, i-gap ibonakala inqatshelwe ngokucacileyo, kwaye inikwe i-hegemonic twist, ngumongameli we-Biden, ngokukodwa ngokugxininisa ngokuphindaphindiweyo kuka-Antony Blinken ukuba umgaqo-nkqubo wamazwe angaphandle waseMelika, ngokungafaniyo nabachasi bayo abakhulu, 'ulawulwa ngumthetho.'
Xa uthi krwaqu 'ulawulo-mthetho' isenokuba sisithetha-ntonye esifutshane sokubambelela kumthetho wamazwe ngamazwe. U-Blinken akalenzi ibango elinjalo, kwaye nomgaqo-nkqubo we-hawk wangaphandle uya kuba nobunzima bokugxininisa ukuziphatha kwamazwe ngamazwe aseMelika 'njengokulawulwa ngumthetho,' kodwa kunokuba athi, okanye ubuncinci bakholwe, ngokulandela uThucydides, 'abanamandla benza njengoko baya kwenza. , ngoxa ababuthathaka besenza oko bamele bakwenze.โ Abanye baye baqikelela ukuba 'ulawulo olulawulwayo' njengebinzana elikhethwayo kwezi ntsuku eWashington yeyona nto inxulumene nokuzalwa kwakhona kwe-'Pax Americana, 'okanye njengoko bendikhe ndacebisa ukuba kususwe uthuli lweMfundiso yeMonroe ekhokele umgaqo-nkqubo wamazwe angaphandle wase-US ukuya. I-Latin America ukuba ivakalise emva kokuhlaselwa kweSoviet ngowe-1991 oko ngokwenene kuyimfundiso yeMonroe yehlabathi, okanye ebonwa kwimbono eyahlukileyo, i-NATO-IZATION yehlabathi emva kweMfazwe Yomlomo.'
Iilebhile ezicaphukisayo zibonakala zichaza impendulo ye-NATO kuhlaselo lwase-Russia ngo-2022 e-Ukraine, eyathi ukusukela ngomhla wokuqala yaphathwa yiNtshona njengomzekelo ocacileyo woLwaphulo-mthetho oluchasene noXolo, olujongwa njengemfazwe yobundlobongela, kwaye ibhengezwe ngoko. uninzi lwamazwe ngendlela yeSigqibo seNgqungquthela yeZizwe eziManyeneyo ES-11/1, ngoMatshi 00, 2022, ngevoti ye-122-5, kunye ne-35 abstentions kuquka i-China kunye ne-Indiya) nangona ngaphandle kwenkxaso efaniswayo yokulandela ukugxeka. uhlaselo ngendlela yokubeka izohlwayo, ukubonelela ngezixhobo, kunye nokuxhobisa ngamandla kwezozakuzo kujonge uloyiso lomkhosi endaweni yokulalanisa ngokwezopolitiko okuzuzwa ngokupheliswa kokudubula okulandelwa luthethwano.
Yintoni ebonakala kuninzi, ubukhulu becala eNtshona, ngokucacileyo xa ujonga kuqala kwiMfazwe yaseUkraine ayicacanga kangako ukuba kujongwe ngakumbi. Kukho umba womxholo wangaphambi kwemfazwe we-Ukraine kunye ne-NATO yokuxhokonxa kunye nelungelo laseRashiya le-veto elimiliselwe kwi-Charter ye-UN, elingana nokukhanya okuluhlaza okunikwe abaphumeleleyo kwiMfazwe Yehlabathi II ekusebenziseni amandla ezizwe ngezizwe. ukuqonda xa kufikwa kwimiba yoxolo nokhuseleko, kwaye kwinkqubo yokungazinaki izibophelelo zeTshatha zokufuna ukusonjululwa ngoxolo kwazo zonke iingxabano zamazwe ngamazwe.
Uhlaselo olungaphendukiyo lwase-US/UK lwase-Iraq ngo-2003 lubonisa lo mgangatho uphindwe kabini obonakaliswa yimpendulo kuhlaselo lwaseRashiya, njengoko kwakunjalo ngongenelelo lokutshintsha kolawulo lwe-NATO eLibya kunye nenkxaso ye-Euro-Amerika yongenelelo lwaseSaudi eYemen kunye nentlaninge yabantu. eminye imizekelo ebuyela kwiMfazwe yaseVietnam. Ngamanye amazwi, 'ulawulo olulawulwayo' njengomcimbi obonakalayo lubonakala luthetha ukungohlwaywa ngalo lonke ixesha i-US, amahlakani kunye nabahlobo bayo, isungula 'iimfazwe zokuzikhethela' kunye nokuphendula ngokunxulumene nomthetho wamazwe ngamazwe kubachasi bayo, ngakumbi abo bakhuphisana nabo ngokwelizwe, bakhaba izibonelelo ezicetywayo zelungelo labo le-veto kwaye bathweswe uxanduva lokubambelela kumthetho wamazwe ngamazwe kummandla wemfazwe/woxolo njengoko uchaziwe kwi-UN Charter. Enyanisweni, umthetho wamazwe ngamazwe awusithintelo kwi-US / NATO ngokubhekiselele ekwenzeni imfazwe, kodwa usebenza njengomgaqo-nkqubo weqhinga kunye nesixhobo sepropaganda sokusetyenziswa ngokuchasene neentshaba. Ukuphindaphinda okunjalo ekusebenziseni igunya lomthetho kubonwa ngokubanzi ngaphandle kweNtshona njengomzekelo ocacileyo wohanahaniso lokuziphatha olujongela phantsi ngokubanzi umnqweno wokutshintsha ulawulo lomthetho ngonyanzeliso kubudlelwane phakathi kwaMagunya Amakhulu kwixesha lenyukliya.
Oku kungaphezulu kulo mboniso wemigangatho ephindwe kabini kunye nohanahaniso lokuziphatha njengoko kubonisiwe yenye ingcaciso yeBlinken enxulumeneyo yohlobo locwangco lwehlabathi aluqinisekisayo egameni le-US Kukungxengxeza kwakhe kwembali ukuba 'imimandla yempembelelo' bekufanele ukuba iphoswe kumgqomo wothuli. yembali emva kweMfazwe Yehlabathi II, kwaye ke into yokuba iUkraine (kunye neCrimea) umda eRashiya, enamava amade adibeneyo embali, amaqhina ezizwe, kunye nokungazinzi kwemimandla iphathwa njengento engabalulekanga. Ngokuqinisekileyo, amaCuba okanye amaVenezuela, okanye amaChile angaphambili kwaye ngokuqinisekileyo abantu baseMbindi baseMelika, baya kuxolelwa ukuba bahleka kakhulu, banikwe iinzame zokunyanzeliswa zeWashington zokukhanyela abemi bala mazwe ukuba bahloniphe amalungelo abo, kubandakanya nelungelo elingenakohluthwa. -ukuzimisela. Imimandla yempembelelo iyavunywa ukuba iyaxhaphaza ngokubhekiselele kuluntu olusemdeni, nokuba lugcinwe yiRashiya okanye yi-United States, kwaye kwihlabathi elilawulwa ngokungafezekanga amacandelo athile kwiindawo ezithile zommandla adlala indima ebalulekileyo yokuthintela imfazwe. Basenokuthomalalisa ungquzulwano lwezopolitiko olunokubakho apho ukuyekelela kwabo bachasayo kumanqanaba eempembelelo ebesikelwe umda ngaphambili kunokubonwa njengokubonelela ngokunqanda ukunyuka ngamaxesha obunzima. Imimandla yaseMpuma / yaseNtshona yempembelelo yokugcina uxolo lwehlabathi ngexesha leentlekele eziyingozi zeMfazwe yoMlomo, ngokukodwa ngexesha leeNgxaki zaseBerlin (1950s), ungenelelo lweSoviet eMpuma Yurophu (1956-1968), iCuban Missile Crisis (1961) .
Kunokuba zisasazeke ngamanqanaba empembelelo, iinkokeli zexesha lemfazwe zase-US, UK, kunye ne-USSR kwiMfazwe yesibini yeHlabathi yabona kwangexesha lesizathu sabo esichasene nobuNazi ukuba bekulindelwe usukuzwano lwasemva kwemfazwe phakathi kwabaphumeleleyo ukuba balandele iimfuno zabo zelizwe ezahlukeneyo ngokwandisa ilizwe labo. impembelelo yeengcamango, yezopolitiko, kunye nezoqoqosho, ngakumbi eYurophu inokujika ibe yingozi. Ezi nkokeli, nangona zazixhasa iingcamango ezichaseneyo, zafuna izivumelwano ukuze ziphephe ungquzulwano lwasemva kwemfazwe eYurophu kungcelele lweenkomfa. Iinkokeli zase-US, i-USSR, kunye ne-UK zafikelela kwizivumelwano, ngakumbi ngo-1945 e-Yalta nase-Potsdam, ezinokuthi zenze okungakumbi ukuthintela isilayidi kwiMfazwe yeHlabathi yesi-III kunokuba ngokuqinisekileyo i-UN Charter kwaye mhlawumbi nemfundiso eceliweyo ye-Mutual. Ukutshatyalaliswa okuQinisekisiweyo (okanye i-MAD njengebonisa ubukrelekrele bokudala uxolo kwinyukliya).
Ezi zivumelwano zexesha lemfazwe azizange zisebenzise ngokucacileyo ulwimi olugxekayo lwemimandla yempembelelo kodwa endaweni yoko zagxininisa ulwahlulo olunxulumene nokuhlaliswa kwamazwe aseYurophu ngaphambili alawulwa ngama-fascist oyiswayo, ingqwalasela ethile inikwe iJamani eyayibonwa njengelona tyala kwaye liyingozi. umdlali phakathi kwe-Axis Powers. Ngokubhekiselele koku, iyodwa phakathi kwamazwe aseYurophu, iJamani yahlulwa yaba yiMpuma Jamani kunye neJamani yaseNtshona, kwaye ikomkhulu layo iBerlin yahlulahlulwe ngokubi kwiBerlin eNtshona naseMpuma Berlin. KwiYurophu iphela, iSoviet Union yanikwa uxanduva lokuhlala kunye nokwakha urhulumente eMpuma Yurophu ngelixa abaphumeleleyo bathatha uxanduva olufanayo kwiNtshona Yurophu.
Olu lwimi lweyantlukwano aluzange luwathintele omabini 'amagunya awongamileyo' ekubandakanyekeni kwiimfazwe zokusasaza omnye komnye kuyo yonke iMfazwe Yomlomo. Ukanti into eyayenzayo kukuphembelela ubulumko bamazwe ngamazwe ngendlela eyayinentlonipho kolu vavanyo lolawulo lwexesha lemfazwe. Obu bulumko bebuhluke kakhulu kwimpendulo yodubulo yaseNtshona kuhlaselo lwaseRussia lwango-2023 eUkraine, lugxininiswa kukucekisa idiplomacy, ukuvumelana kwezopolitiko, kunye nokufuna ngokuphandle ukoyiswa kweRussia ukuze kuqinisekiswe emva kweMfazwe ebandayo. unipolarity xa kufikwa kwimiba yoxolo nokhuseleko. Ngokungathandabuzekiyo, umoya wexesha lemfazwe ngowe-1944-45 waba negalelo ekubalulekeni kokuthabatha amanyathelo okuthintela ukuvela kwakhona kwemfazwe enkulu eyayisilwe kulawulo nekamva leYurophu. INkomfa yasePotsdam yathatha yaphela ngaphantsi kweveki phambi kokuba kuphoswe ibhombu yeathom eHiroshima, uHarry Truman exelela uStalin ukuba i-US inesixhobo esikhulu esinokukhawulezisa ukuzinikela okungenamiqathango kweJapan, njengoko kwenzekile ngokwenene.
Nangona kuqhutywe phambi kokusetyenziswa kwebhombu ye-athomu le diplomacy yemfazwe yayisazi ngoloyiko ukuba imfazwe ezayo iya kuba yingozi kakhulu kuneemfazwe ezimbini zehlabathi zangaphambili. Ngale ndlela, le migca yempazamo eYurophu yasekwa kwimeko-bume yethemba kunye noloyiko, kodwa nakwimida ebekwe yi-state-centrism kunye ne-geopolitical abhotion, ibangela uxinezeleko oluthe lwacima ithemba lokugcina imvisiswano yamazwe ngamazwe emva kwemfazwe, ngaloo ndlela efiphalisa amathemba okuba ukudlula umngcipheko omkhulu wokukhuphisana kwamandla aMakhulu exesha elidlulileyo. Oku kwakhokelela kwibipolarity yeMfazwe Yomlomo kunye neengcamango zayo ezintsonkothileyo, ezomkhosi, iindawo, kunye nezopolitiko zongquzulwano olukhulu. Ukanti iMfazwe Yehlabathi Yesithathu yaphetshwa, phezu kwayo nje iminxeba ethile esondeleyo, kwiminyaka engama-45 eyalandelayo emva kokuphela kweMfazwe Yehlabathi II.
Ingcinga 'yemigca yeempazamo zelizwe' kunye 'nemimandla yempembelelo' ayimiselwanga kakuhle kwindlela yokusebenza okanye ithiyori yobudlelwane bamazwe ngamazwe, kodwa ubukho babo buyimfuneko kakhulu ekugcineni uxolo nokhuseleko phakathi kwaMandla amakhulu, nakwihlabathi jikelele. . Oku kubaluleka kwemigca yempazamo ye-geopolitical ngokuyinxenye kusisiphumo sokungaphumeleli komthetho wamazwe ngamazwe ukuba nokukwazi ukunyanzelisa imida eqhubekayo kwindlela yokuziphatha okunyanzeliswayo kwaMandla amakhulu alawulayo, ebanika i-de facto isohlwayo ngokwenza ngaphaya kwemida yomthetho. Ngolu hlobo, imigca yeempazamo ze-geopolitical kunye nolwahlulo lwemimandla ekuvunyelwene ngalo lubonelela ngokuphuculwa endaweni yomthetho wamazwe ngamazwe ngokumisela imida ekuvunyelwene ngayo ngokusesikweni kwindlela yokuziphatha exhaswa zizibophelelo ezithile zaMagunya Amakhulu, nto leyo eyaziwayo ukuba xa kophulwe isiphumo sokungavisisani, kwaye kunokwenzeka kube yintlekele. Imfazwe, phakathi kwawona mazwe axhobe kakhulu ehlabathini anokuba nesiphumo.
Inqaku eliphambili lelokuba impendulo yeBiden/Blinken kwiMfazwe yaseUkraine kunye nokunyuka kweTshayina ziyadelela ubuqili belizwe kunye nobuchule bezozakuzo obuncede ukusindisa umhlaba kwimbubhiso eyintlekele ngexesha leMfazwe ebandayo. Ewe kunjalo, kwaqhambuka imfazwe eneendleko ezinkulu kumazwe ahlukeneyo eKorea naseVietnam, kodwa kwiindawo apho bekungekho mvumelwano yolwahlulo lwexeshana olubekwe ngaphandle kunye nezicwangciso zobuchule zokucela umngeni kwezi zintlukwano kucingelwa ukuba zethutyana zazingeyomfuneko xa zithelekiswa neJamani. bezizezona ziphezulu. Ngaphandle koku, kwiimeko zaseKorea naseVietnam, izibonda zazisephezulu ngokwaneleyo ukuba i-US isoyikise ukusetyenziswa kwezixhobo zenyukliya ukugcina imeko, eyona nto iyingozi ngokumalunga neKorea, kunye neChina esebenza ngesiseko sokhuseleko lomda. ungquzulwano.
Ihamba phantse isithi imigca yempazamo ye-geopolitical kunye nemimandla yempembelelo yizithintelo zesibini eziyimfuneko ebonisa ubuthathaka bomthetho wamazwe ngamazwe kunye ne-UN. Ukulungisa obu buthathaka kufuneka kunikwe ingqwalaselo ephambili ngoorhulumente kunye namatshantliziyo asekuhlaleni athanda uxolo. Okwangoku, imida yempembelelo kukuqondwa kobuninzi babantu, isandulela solungelelwaniso lwentsebenziswano ngakumbi lwehlabathi, kunye nomqondiso wokuba imicelimngeni eyahlukileyo kukulunga koluntu lwehlabathi olubangelwa kukutshintsha kwemozulu kunye nezixhobo zenyukliya ngokwenene zifuna 'ulungelelwaniso olutsha lwehlabathi' ukubonakalisa izigunyaziso zamazwe akhokelayo ukuba enze ngentsebenziswano endaweni yokungqubana. Mhlawumbi, iMfazwe yaseUkraine isenokuthi itolikwe ukuvelisa inguqu enjalo kwimbono kunye nokuziphatha.
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