Umthombo: Richardfalk.com
Ukusukela oko izinto zaqala ukungahambi kakuhle eSyria emva kwemvukelo eyabangelwa yi-Arab Spring ka-2011, imeko iye yaguqula inkungu yesiko lemfazwe yaba yibhokisi emnyama engangenekiyo. Akukho namnye kubadlali bezopolitiko abangenelelayo kuquka iTurkey, iUnited States, i-Iran, iRashiya, i-Israel, i-UAE, kunye ne-Saudi Arabia ibalwe ngokuchanekileyo, kwaye amaqela ahlukeneyo angekho phantsi kwelizwe anxulumene ne-al Qaeda kunye ne-ISIS kamva, kunye neendidi ezahlukeneyo. Uvukelo lwaseSiriya oluchasene neDamasko. Alukho ungquzulwano lwezizwe ngezizwe olwakhe lwabonakala lucace gca, lunamacala amaninzi, kwaye luphazanyiswa ngumdlalo wezopolitiko eziphikisanayo, kunye nezizichasayo zelizwe, zengingqi kunye nezopolitiko zehlabathi. Into ethethwayo kunye nento eyenziwayo iyahluka kakhulu kangangokuba zonke iinzame zokuqonda zixhomekeke kwaye zifuna ukuhlaziywa rhoqo. Ngaphandle kweenzame ezinyanisekileyo zokutolika kunye nokuxabisa okwenzekayo kwaye kutheni, kukho iintlobo ngeentlobo zee-ajenda ezikhohlisayo apho izibakala, iinjongo, kunye nezizathu zithotyelwa phantsi kwe-cookie cutter rigidity yeenjongo zezopolitiko ezibanzi ezingavunywanga, kwaye zigqume iinyani lo msebenzi womkhosi waseTurkey kumafu amnyama okwenziwa. Kukukwazi kobu bunzima ndenza lo mzamo wokuphawula ngesi siqendu samva nje kulandelelwano olulusizi lweziganeko zaseSyria ezaqala ngaphezu kweminyaka esibhozo eyadlulayo ngoqhanqalazo oluzenzekelayo eDeraa ngokuchasene nokunyhashwa kwamalungelo oluntu ngurhulumente waseDamasko, Uguqulo olubonakala lusenziwa mandundu ngenxa yeempembelelo zokutshintsha kwemozulu kwezinye iindawo zelizwe eziye zakhokelela ekufudukeni kwangaphakathi kunye novavanyo lokufuduka. Ulawulo lukarhulumente kulo mboniso wenkcaso lwaluqatha, yaye ngokukhawuleza kwalandela imvukelo exhobileyo.
Iimpazamo ezimbini ezisisiseko ezenziwa ngabadlali abangengawo amaSyria, ezazikuphindaphindwa kweempazamo ezidlulileyo ngawo onke la mabutho alwayo, ngokuqinisekileyo zibe negalelo kwintshabalalo yeSyria, ukubandezeleka okukhulu kwabantu bayo, ukufa kunye nokwenzakala kwamakhulu amawaka, kunye nokufuduswa kwezigidi zabantu. , ukudala iseti yeemeko ezisenalo ithemba elincinci lokuvelisa isiphelo esanelisayo. Impazamo yokuqala, ekwabelwana ngayo ngakumbi ngu-Ankara kunye neWashington, yayikukuba ungenelelo lomkhosi lunokukhawuleza ukulinganisa, ukuvelisa ixesha elide. Utshintsho lolawulo olunqwenelekayo eDamasko lufunwa amashumi eminyaka yi-US kunye ne-Israel. Impazamo yesibini yayikukuba iSyria iyafana neLibya, oko kukuthi, urhulumente wolawulo-melo olungenankxaso yezopolitiko kubemi balo, kwaye ngenxa yoko usengozini yokubhukuqwa lula lugonyamelo loburhalarhume, ngakumbi ukuba uxhaswa yinkuthazo yangaphandle kunye noncedo lomkhosi. Ezi zibalo zigwenxa zijonge amandla e-Iran kunye neRussia ukuphelisa ungenelelo oluchasene ne-Assad kwaye ijongele phantsi kakhulu inkxaso yasekhaya eyonwatyelwa ngurhulumente waseDamasko kunye nobuchule kunye nokusebenza kwedabi lomkhosi waseSyria, ogqithise kakhulu oko bekufumaneka kurhulumente. kwiLibya yaseQaddafi.
Kwiminyaka yesiphithiphithi, umzabalazo wolawulo lwelizwe laseSyria waxambulisana nezinye iingxakana zezopolitiko, ngakumbi i-US ikhokele umzabalazo wokulwa ne-ISIS kunye neenzame zamaKurdish zokulandela iinjongo zabo zokuzimela, ngenxa yobuninzi bemeko yezopolitiko eSyria, ukonwabela kwayo inkxaso yaseMelika, kunye nempembelelo evezwa yimpumelelo yamaKurds aseIraq ekufezekiseni ide facto statehood kumantla eIraq. Isicwangciso saseKurdish siqhubeka, ngokubambisana nemikhosi yase-US ekucingelwa ukuba ikhona eSiriya ukulwa ne-ISIS kunye neDamasko, yayikunceda amaKurds aseSiriya afezekise iinjongo zawo phantsi kobunkokeli obunomkhosi weYPG (iQela loKhuseleko lwabantu baseKurdish), uninzi lwabahlalutyi beengcali abavumayo. idityaniswe ngokusondeleyo ngokwezinto ezibonakalayo kunye neengcamango kwi-PKK (Peoples Workers Party), eye yabandakanyeka kumzabalazo oxhobileyo wokulwa neTurkey iminyaka engaphezu kwe-30 kumzabalazo oqhubekayo osele ubiza ngaphezu kwe-40,000 yokuphila kwabantu. Injongo ye-PKK yayikukudala i-Kurdistan ezimeleyo okanye ukuseka i-Kurdish ezimeleyo yezopolitiko elawulwa kwimida yaseTurkey ekhoyo, ebonakala ifana nenjongo ye-YPG. Njengoluntsokothileyo, kuyaphikiswa, kwaye lufanelekile njengale mvelaphi, umphambili ude ube murkier.
Kukho izinto ezininzi ezingaphandle ekufuneka ziqwalaselwe. Okokuqala, idiplomacy kaTrump, njengesiqhelo, ithumele ngokungenankathalo owona mqondiso udibeneyo kubo bonke abantu abanomdla, kunye nezithuko ezivuthayo kunye nezithuko ezingenaxanduva ezijoliswe kwisazisi samaKurd kunye neminqweno. Ukuya e-Ankara, ukuphuma ngequbuliso kwemikhosi yomkhosi waseMelika kwabonakala kujongwe ngokucacileyo kwaye kwatolikwa ngokufanelekileyo njengokukhanya okuluhlaza ukwenza indawo ekhuselekileyo kwicala laseSyria kumda weTurkey ngokuphelisa ubukho beYPG kumda weemayile ezingama-20 kumntla-mpuma weSyria. Olo phawu lwakhawuleza lwalandelwa zizisongelo eziqatha, ezingekho mthethweni, kunye nezipheleleyo ezikhutshwe nguTrump ngokungalindelekanga ngeziphumo ezibi ukuba usilele ukulandela imiyalelo evela kwi-White House. Olo tshintsho lwezozakuzo lwaqiniswa kwakhona kukubekwa kwezohlwayo (ukunyusa amaxabiso kwintsimbi yaseTurkey ngama-50% kunye nokukhenkcisa iimpahla zamagosa aliqela aseTurkey) ezingaqondakaliyo. Ezi zohlwayo zinokutolikwa njengezohlwayo okanye njengesenzo nje esenzelwe ukungxengxeza abagxeki baseRiphabhlikhi kwiNkongolo yase-US abavakalisa ngokurhabaxa ukugxeka, betyhola uTrump ngokuyishiya i-YPG, kutshanje ihlakani elibalulekileyo kumlo wokuqala waseMelika ngokuchasene nobunqolobi be-ISIS. Ngexesha lobumongameli bakhe, uninzi lomgaqo-nkqubo kaTrump wangaphandle ubonakala ulawulwa kakhulu ngokubalo okunxulumene nezopolitiko zasekhaya zaseMelika kunokujongwa kwakhona kwendlela yokuphumeza imigaqo-nkqubo yamazwe ngamazwe ngendlela esebenzayo.
KumaKurds aseSyria alungelelaniswe neYPG, yayisisiphelo sephupha lokuzilawula, endaweni yoko endaweni yethemba elibi lenye intlekele yomkhosi kunye noluntu. Kuyabonakala ukuba ayingawo onke amaKurds abelane ngolu toliko njengoko amawaka amaninzi abalekela umda efuna indawo engcwele eTurkey, kwaye esongeza ngakumbi iimbacu kwi-3.5-4 yezigidi esele zikhona. Kuyo yonke inkulungwane yabo yonxunguphalo kunye nomzabalazo umbutho wesizwe wamaKurd awuphumelelanga ukuveza umkhombandlela omanyeneyo malunga neendlela kunye neziphelo, kwaye akanabo ubunkokeli obunamandla obubonakalayo obunokuba nefuthe kuluvo lwehlabathi.
Iseti yesibini eyongeziweyo yezinto ibandakanya ukuthathela ingqalelo iphulo elibukhali lamazwe ngamazwe eliqhutywe ngokuchasene norhulumente waseTurkey njengoko likhokelwa nguRecep Tayyip Erdoğan, owathinjwa ziintshaba zangaphandle zikamongameli waseTurkey kunye ne-AKP elawulayo (iQela lezoBulungisa kunye noPhuhliso) ukuphawula igama. Ukuhlaselwa kweTurkey 'njengokuhlanjululwa kohlanga' kunye 'nokubulawa kwabantu.' Kwaye kwaxoxwa ukuba iTurkey iye yaba lihlazo kwi-NATO kangangokuba kufuneka igxothwe. Idiplomacy yaseMelika nayo yahlaselwa kabukhali ngenxa yokulahlwa kwamaKurds ngokukhawuleza nje ukuba iWashington ikholelwe ukuba uncedo lwabo alusafuneki. Ayikuko ukuba ezi mbono zichasene neTurkey zonke azilunganga, kodwa ngokuqinisekileyo bezisetyenziselwa iinjongo ezibanzi ezingahambelani nohlaselo lomda, kwaye ngenxa yoko zigqwethiwe phantse ngaphaya kokuqondwa.
Eli phulo anti-Turkish iye yaqhutywa yi imbumba ekhululekileyo imikhosi yezopolitiko, kubandakanywa Kurds phesheya, Kemalists nzima-core, kunye nabalandeli abangaguqukiyo Fetullah Gülen intshukumo ukuba ibekwe eTurkey ukuzama ukubhukuqa 2016. Ngelo xesha yintoni yaseYurophu kunye North North. Iimpendulo zaseMelika zokungakhathali ukuba ngaba urhulumente wedemokhrasi onyuliweyo waseTurkey usindile kwabonwa ngabaninzi kurhulumente waseTurkey kunye noluntu njengophuhliso olubi. Ukuba uthatha inkathazo yokufunda oko kupapashiweyo kwi-pro-Israel ye-militantly, iiwebhusayithi zeZionist ezikhutheleyo ezifana neForam yaseMbindi Mpuma, isithuthi semibono ye-Zionist extremist Daniel Pipes, okanye i-Gatestone Institute ehambelana namanani afanelekileyo njengo-Alan Dershowitz noJohn. I-Bolton uya kudibana nomjelo ozinzileyo weengcamango ezinomsindo ezenzelwe ukunikezela iTurkey ngandlela zonke. Kuninzi ukubhala kwezi webhusayithi malunga nokuxhatshazwa kwamalungelo oluntu eTurkey, nto leyo ifanelekile, kodwa idityaniswa nokuthula okungevayo malunga nokuxhatshazwa okubi kakhulu e-Egypt naseSaudi Arabia. Ayifuni i-PhD ukuqonda ukuba yintoni esemngciphekweni yi-Middle East hegemony ukuze i-United States iqhutywe ngokubambisana kunye no-Israel kunye ne-Saudi Arabia. Ngokunikwa le ajenda iphambili, ayimangalisi into yokuba kwenzeke ukungalingani kunye nokutolika okulahlekisayo kwe-Operation Peace Spring, igama lekhowudi elinikwe umsebenzi womkhosi waseTurkey, lilawula amajelo eendaba.
Okothusayo kukuba, i-New York Times, yapapasha isiqwenga soluvo nguMphathiswa Wezangaphandle waseTurkey, u-Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu ngo-Okthobha we-11, echaza ngokucacileyo nangokucacileyo umda wokuthatha umkhosi kunye neenjongo zaseTurkey zizonke. Yintoni eyayiphakathi, kwaye ingahoywa ngokupheleleyo yi-drumbeat enobutshaba ye-anti-Turkish media coverage, yayiyisiqinisekiso sokuba iTurkey yayifuna 'indawo ekhuselekileyo' kwimida yayo ngokususa i-YPG, kwaye ingaqalisi ukuhlaselwa kwamaKurds. U-Çavuşoğlu ubanga ukuba injongo yaseTurkey iphelele ekucoceni umtya weemayile ezingama-20 we-YPG kunye nobukho be-ISIS, kunye nokuvumela abo babaleki baseSyria eTurkey abanqwenela ukubuyela eSyria ukuze bahlale kulo mhlaba ucoliweyo. Injongo yesibini yayikukubuyisela ulongamo lwaseSyria kumhlaba wayo, nto leyo ethetha ukwala njengento engenakwenzeka iprojekthi yokuyila iRojava statelet kumntla-mpuma weSyria. U-Çavuşoğlu ulikhabile ngokufanelekileyo ibango lobuxoki lokuba imikhosi yaseTurkey okanye abathandanayo bakhulula eluvalelweni amakhulukhulu e-ISIS. Ngokubhekiselele koku, irekhodi ye-Ankara malunga nokuchasana nobunqolobi iyahambelana kakhulu kuneWashington-i-US ichaza i-PKK njengombutho wabanqolobi kwaye ukanti iingalo kunye nobudlelwane bayo neYPG, ulwandiso lwayo lwaseSyria, olubonelelweyo kunye nezopolitiko ezilawulwa kwimigaqo-nkqubo kunye nezenzo zabadala. Iinkokeli zePKK. Isityholo esivuthayo, esingekho ngqiqweni ebusweni bayo, sokuba iTurkey iza kukhulula ngabom abalweli be-ISIS ichasene nenyani eyoyikisayo yokuba i-ISIS yayisoloko isalathisa ubundlobongela kwiithagethi zaseTurkey kwaye iTurkey ibizibhokoxa ekutshabalaliseni i-ISIS njengesoyikiso sokhuseleko, nyani endiye ndadibana nayo njenge. umhlali wethutyana waseTurkey.
Ngaphakathi eTurkey, naphakathi kwabo bachase kakhulu i-Erdoğan kunye ne-AKP kukho imvumelwano exhasa lo msebenzi womkhosi uqhubekayo ukuba nje uthintelwe kukhuseleko lomda kunye neenjongo zokuchasa. I-diplomacy ye-Trump edityaniswe ne-AKP kunye ne-anti-Kurdish-wing-wing MHP emva konyulo luka-2014, ichaza ukuba kutheni amaKurds, nokuba angenaluvelwano kunye namaqhinga okanye ubudlelwane be-YPG, ngokuqondakalayo banoloyiko olukhulu kwaye bakhathazekile malunga nento eyenzekayo, ngakumbi emva kokuba uTrump ekhuphe umbhoxo phantsi kwabo, ethuka esithi babengengabo amahlakani e-US kwaye ukhuseleko lwabo yayingumcimbi nje ongenamsebenzi ongafanelanga kuthathwa njengomcimbi wesizwe. Indlela amaKurdish asabela ngayo yayikukuhlehlisa ulungelelwaniso lwawo. Phantsi kweemeko, ukujongana neDamasko kubonakala kungebobudenge kwaye akumangalisi. Akukwazeki ukuxelela ukuba ngaba olu tshintsho kulindelo lwe-YPG lubuchule obunobuchule okanye lumele uhlengahlengiso olukhulu olusezantsi kumabhongo ezopolitiko. Okuninzi kuxhomekeke kwindlela urhulumente waseSyria aza kusabela ngayo, eluqikelelo lwakhe nabani na ngalo mzuzu. Kuhle ukuthobela uvavanyo lukaGraham Fuller oluxoxwe kakuhle malunga nemeko yangoku yaseSyria, echaza ukuba kule minyaka ilishumi idlulileyo wonke umntu ungcatshe wonke umntu eSyria. U-Fuller kufuneka azi, ekubeni esebenze ixesha elide njengegosa eliphezulu kumsebenzi obaluleke kakhulu we-CIA eTurkey, indawo enkulu yangaphandle kwixesha leMfazwe ebandayo.
Kunzima ukuvavanya 'ukupheliswa komlilo' esandula kubhengezwa nguMike Pence e-Ankara emva kothethathethwano olude no-Erdoğan, nokuba isigama sokupheliswa komlilo sifanelekile. Ngokuphathelene noku, u-Çavuşoğlu wayelumkile ukubiza oko bekuvunyelwene ngako 'njengekhefu' leentsuku ezintlanu kumsebenzi oqhubekayo wokuwela umda. Ulwimi lubalulekile. Ukuba umlo uphinda uqalise, iTurkey iya kutyholwa ngokwaphula umthetho, ngelixa iTurkey iya kuphendula ukuba ivumile kuphela ikhefu. Kuninzi mhlawumbi kuxhomekeke ekubeni imikhosi yeYPG iyahamba okanye ithathe isigqibo sokuhlala, kwaye ibandakanye ubukho bomkhosi waseTurkey. Ukuza kuthi ga ngoku, kubonakala kulungile ukugqiba kwelokuba iTurkey ibonakala ifumana iziphumo ebizifuna. Kananjalo, ngendlela yokurhoxa kwe-Amerika kumajoni ayo ali-1,000 kunye ne-diplomacy yayo engagungqiyo, iRussia ne-Iran inokomelela, ngelixa i-Israel kunye ne-Saudi Arabia ziphulukwa bubuthongo. Akumangalisi ukuba uNobhala welizwe laseMelika, uMike Pompeo, wathunyelwa esuka e-Ankara ukuya eYerusalem kwi-mission yokonga ukuze avuyise uNetanyahu. Kuya kuba nomdla wokuba uPompeo akazange acelwe ukuba amise eRiyadh ngesabelo esifanayo sokubamba ngesandla.
Isibongozo sam phakathi kweso siphithiphithi sangabom nesimsulwa, kukuba sibambe isigwebo kunye nokuzenzisa okucacileyo, kwaye ngaphezu kwako konke ukuphepha ungenelelo olungaphaya okanye ngenye indlela ukunyusa umda okanye ubunzulu bongquzulwano, ndifune uthethathethwano olulinganiselwe kumaqela engingqi, kwaye uhlale ukhumbula. iinkxalabo zobuntu. Kuya kunceda kwakhona ukungabakhathaleli abanxamnye neTurkey abaneenjongo ezicacileyo kukutshintsha kolawulo eTurkey ukuba kuphunyezwe ngayo nayiphi na indlela, kodwa okwangoku ngokunikezela urhulumente waseTurkey kangangoko kunokwenzeka, ekhuthaza uTrump ukuba enze isoyikiso esibi sokutshabalalisa iTurkey. kwezoqoqosho, nto leyo ebangela ukubandezeleka kwelinye ilizwe kulo mmandla, elikhaya labantu abazizigidi ezingama-85. Akufanele silibale ukuba iTurkey yilizwe elizimeleyo elinelungelo lokuxhasa ukhuseleko lwesizwe njengaye nawuphi na omnye, kwaye nangona iingxaki zayo, ziyakwazi ngaphezu kwayo nayiphi na enye ilizwe kuMbindi Mpuma wokulandela idiplomacy eyakhayo kulo lonke ummandla.
Ngelixa yayilihlazo into yokuba uTrump ngokuqaqadeka ajongele phantsi iinkxalabo zamaKurdish, ayilihlazo kangako into yokuba i-liberal press eMelika yenze ngokungathi umkhosi waseTurkey ogxile kwi-YPG waphathwa ngendlela efanayo nokuhlasela abantu baseKurdish. Kuyafaneleka ukuba uqaphele ukuba ngexesha leminyaka yokusebenza kweTurkey ngokuchasene ne-PKK ukusetyenziswa kwayo kwamandla akuzange kube mngeni njengoko ijoliswe kubantu baseKurdish ngokubanzi, kodwa kwakhona, i-PKK ayizange ibhaliswe yimikhosi yaseMelika ukuba isebenze ngokubambisana. njengokuba yayiyiYPG. Ukwaneliseka kwamalungelo asisiseko eKurdish kubaluleke kakhulu kunangaphambili, kodwa oku kunyanzelekileyo akufuneki kubhidaniswe namalungelo azimeleyo aseTurkey okuxhasa ukhuseleko lomda ngeendlela ezifanelekileyo kunye neSyria ukubuyisela ulongamo lwayo lommandla kwingqiqo ehambelanayo yokuba amazwe amanyeneyo, nangona kunjalo imvelaphi yawo kwinkulungwane eyadlulayo, kusenokwenzeka ukuba kukhokelele kuMbindi Mpuma uxolo kunye nozinzo kunokuba kuvele ii-statelets zobuhlanga kulo lonke ummandla.
I-ZNetwork ixhaswa ngemali kuphela ngesisa sabafundi bayo.
Nikela
1 amagqabantshintshi
UGqr. Falk othandekayo:
Enkosi ngomsebenzi wakho omhle!
Ndiqalisa ukufunda kuMbindi Mpuma. Iqabane kwisahluko sam samaVeteran woXolo ndicebise ukuba ndifunde uTim Anderson' "Imfazwe emdaka ngokuchasene neSyria," pro-Assad kakhulu. Ngaba unganceda ucebise ikhonkco eliqhubekayo, elichasene ne-US Imperialist?,
Enkosi!
Peter Straus
I-Oakland, CA