Ndicinga ukuba kufuneka uhlale apha ukuze uve ukungcangcazela. Thatha kule veki iphelileyo, xa ndithe gqolo ukudada kwibalcony yam - benjenjalo nabahamba ngeenyawo eCorniche - kwisandi esinamandla senqwelomoya yokulwa ye-F-16 idanyaza phezu kolwandle kunye nezitrato zaseBeirut.
Sisiphi isigidimi esasithunyelwa ngamaSirayeli ngeli xesha? Ukuba bangoyiki iHezbollah?
Ngaba banokuhlazisa iNkulumbuso yaseLebhanon uSaad Hariri?
Izulu liyayazi, akuyomfuneko ukuba bayenze loo nto, xa uHariri ethathe kaninzi indlela eyinkangala eya eDamasko ukuze ancokole ngobuhlobo nomntu akholelwa ukuba wabulala uyise uRafiq, uMongameli uBashar al-Assad.
Kodwa ngubani okhathalayo ngenqwelomoya yakwaSirayeli? Ucinga ukuba i-MiG yaseSyria ibethe iTel Aviv ngexesha lokuthenga exakekileyo kwiveki ephelileyo? U-Hillary Clinton uya kuba egxeka iSebe likaRhulumente, uNobhala-Jikelele we-UN u-Ban Ki Moon wayeya kulumkisa ngokunyanisekileyo iSiriya ngemiphumo kwaye amaSirayeli aya kucinga ngokubetha umoya eSiriya ukuze afundise uMongameli uAssad isifundo. Kodwa hayi.
Ukugqithiswa kwe-Israel kwakuchasana olucacileyo lwe-UN Security Council Resolution 1701 - i-Israel iphula i-1701 yonke imihla nge-overflights, kodwa kungekhona kweli nqanaba eliphantsi - kwaye andizange ndifumane ingxelo enye yesiganeko kwi-American press. AmaSirayeli angabantu abalungileyo. Ezinye zimbi.
Emva koko kwafika ibali lomfundisi obhubhele kwi-archdiocese yaseMaronite eSarba kwiveki ephelileyo, esoyiswa ngumsi. UBawo ohluphekileyo uPierre Khoueiry wayewile imigangatho emibini esuka kwi-balcony emva kokuba isakhiwo sakhe sivutha umlilo - abanye abefundisi ababini baye baphuma ngokukhuselekileyo endlwini - kwaye icawa yachaza ukuba imbangela yayiyimpazamo yombane.
Kwakuyinyani ngokucacileyo: ndabona ibhokisi yesiphambuka eyayitshile yaphela.
Kodwa i-OTV yazikhokela ngokungqongqo iindaba zayo zasekhaya ngokucebisa ukuba oku kunokuba kukuqhuba kohlaselo olusisiseko kwiicawe zase-Iraq nase-Egypt. Umphathiswa wolwazi wase-Beirut, uTark Mitri, wakhalaza ngokukrakra "ngokubhengezwa ngokungafanelekanga" kwentlekele yecawa.
ELebhanon kwezi ntsuku, intwana nje yocalucalulo inokutshisa ipetroli yezopolitiko. Ewe, sinokuyichitha le mbudane. Ngaba i-20,000 ye-Beiritis eselula ayibalekanga i-marathon ejikeleza isixeko sonke ngeCawa, ibetha amagubu kunye neempawu ezingqubuzanayo kunye nokudanisa "i-dabka" ezitratweni? Ngokuqinisekileyo. Kodwa kutheni umnini-mhlaba edibanise ucango olutsha lwentsimbi phezu kweefestile zakhe zesiFrentshi? Kwaye kutheni efake isibane sokhuseleko ngasemva esikhanyisa ikhitshi lam ubusuku bonke?
Mhlawumbi lulwimi olune-sulphurous lwezopolitiko zaseLebhanon ezingenathemba. Ukusukela oko uSayed Hassan Nasrallah, usihlalo weShia Muslim Hezbollah owanikezela ngompu wamaSirayeli kumongameli wase-Iran eBeirut, wabongoza iLebhanon ukuba yale iNkundla yaseHague ephanda ukufa kukaRafiq Hariri - uNasrallah ukholelwa ukuba amalungu aphambili eHezbollah aya kutyholwa - besilindile. ukuba ikhabhinethi iwe.
Unozakuzaku waseFransi ukholelwa ukuba iNkulumbuso uHariri ayizukuhlala kule veki. Ndicinga ukuba akalunganga, kodwa bendinexhala malunga nokuxela kwam xa iHezbollah kunye neqela eliphikisayo lamaShiite lalile ukujoyina inkomfa yoxolelwaniso kaMongameli Michel Sleiman kwiintsuku ezisithoba ezidlulileyo. Ngaphantsi kwelungiselelo lobuqhetseba elenziwe ngu-Emir waseQatar, uninzi lwamaChristian-Sunni kwikhabhinethi yaseLebhanon lunokwenza izigqibo. Kodwa inkcaso kunye neHezbollah banamalungelo e-veto. Ukanti xa amaqela aphikisayo engazukuza kumongameli ukuze athethe nabanye oorhulumente, kubonakala ngathi abakhathali novoto lwabo.
Abezopolitiko bobuKrestu bathontelana ukuya kuPatriarch wabo, uKhadinali Nasrallah Sfeir, ngaloo ndlela baphinda bajika iCawe yaseMaronite yaba liqela lezopolitiko-nangona ingothusiyo xa omnye uNasrallah (oyena Hezbollah) ejike amaShiites aba ngabaxhasi bama-Irani.
Abanye (nceda ufunde i-Hezbollah, amaShiites kunye ne-Iran) babezama "ukunyanzela i-Lebhanon indlela engenakwenzeka nengekho sikweni - ukukhanyela ubulungisa ukuze kugcinwe uxolo loluntu, okanye ukuncama uxolo loluntu ngenxa yobulungisa".
UMichel Aoun, owayesakuba nguMkristu-jikelele owayesakuba neqela elixhasa iHezbollah ngethemba elilize lokumenza umongameli-uNasrallah uyakonwabela ukuxelela umhlaba ukuba olu manyano lumnika inkxaso yecandelwana- angavuya kukubona inkundla ishiywe. Nkqu nenkokeli yaseDruze, u-Walid Jumblatt, ezopolitiko zakhe zenza umjikelo womoya rhoqo emva kweminyaka emithathu okanye emine, ngoku uthi ubukho bayo abubalulekanga “njengokuzola kweLebhanon”. Ngokungathandabuzekiyo, uMama uClinton ubesemnxebeni kuHariri, emcenga ukuba akhuphe i-Hezbollah kwaye abambelele kwinkundla yamatyala. EWashington, oku kunengqiqo. ELebhanon, uvakala ngathi uphambene.
Ngoba? AmaShiite lolona luntu lukhulu eLebhanon, ukanti oonyana babo kunye nabantakwabo benza uninzi lomkhosi wesizwe waseLebhanon.
Asikuko ukuba i-Hezbollah ingenile kwiinqanaba. Kungenxa yokuba ekubeni ama-Elite angamaKristu kunye namaSunni aye agcina amaShiites kubuhlwempu obuthelekisayo, oonyana abancinci bafuna umsebenzi kwaye bathunyelwa emkhosini. Cinga ngeManchester okanye iGlasgow phakathi kweemfazwe.
Ngaphaya koko, umkhosi waseLebhanon unzima kakhulu kunye neenjengele kunye neekholoneli. Njengoko umphengululi waseCarnegie uNadim Hasbani wachazayo, umphathiswa wezokhuselo welizwe wazama ngelize ukuvula iakhawunti kwiBhanki Enkulu, apho abemi babucala banokunikela ngemali ukuxhasa ukuthenga kwezixhobo zomkhosi. Kukho, eneneni, akukho akhawunti kuba ngokomthetho ikhabhinethi kufuneka iququzelele naluphi na ulungiselelo lohlahlo lwabiwo-mali. Phofu ke, umkhosi welizwe unokukulungiselela njani ukuthenga izixhobo zawo ngokusekelwe kwiminikelo yesisa?
Kodwa emva kumajoni Shiite. Ukuba ngenene bayalelwa ukuba baye emazantsi eGrand Old Duke yaseYork-style, ngaba kukho nabani na okholelwa ukuba aba bafana bazakukhwela kumakhaya abo amaShiite ukuya kudubula abazalwana babo be-Hezbollah, ootata kunye nabazala kwikwayala ye-White House. ?
Hayi, babeza kwala kwaye amajoni angamaKristu-amaSunni aya kunikwa umsebenzi wokuhlasela amaShiite axhobileyo. Umkhosi wawuza kuqhekeka. Yaqala ngolo hlobo ke imfazwe yamakhaya ngowe-1975.
Ngaba uMama uClinton - kunye nomphathiswa welizwe langaphandle okhohlakeleyo waseFransi, ongcwele uBernard Kouchner oye weza eBeirut ukuxhasa inkundla- bafuna enye imfazwe yamakhaya eLebhanon?
Kukho enye ingxaki. Ngenxa yamanani abo, amaShiite akamelwanga kakhulu kwipalamente yaseLebhanon nakurhulumente. Kwaye kukho isivumelwano esingathethwanga - ngokuqinisekileyo esingabhalwanga - isivumelwano eBeirut sokuba ukuhlawulela ukunqongophala kwabo kwamandla ezopolitiko, amaShiites anokuba nomkhosi.
Ukuba uThixo wayenokuxelela uNasrallah ukuba ahluthe izixhobo zeHezbollah - ngokuqinisekileyo uya kuthobela, kuba akukho mntu wumbi kulo mmandla uya kuba nobuganga bokwenza isicelo esinjalo - ngoko uNasrallah wayeza kufuna ngoko nangoko ukwanda kwamanani amaShiite kurhulumente, ngokuhambelana neyakhe mhlawumbi engama-42 yakhe. ipesenti yabemi.
Ngoko ke, kuya kubakho urhulumente wamaShiite eLebhanon.
Ngaba yiloo nto ifunwa nguClinton kunye no-Obama omdala ohluphekileyo? Elinye ilizwe lama-Arabhu angamaShiite ukongeza ekudalweni kwelizwe lamaShiite eIraq alinike amaSaudis kunye nawo onke amaSunni angama-Arabhu njengommelwane?
Umngcipheko weHezbollah, ngokuqinisekileyo, ufumana oko iLebhanon kubiza "iimpumlo ezinkulu". Ngamanye amazwi, ukuba iimpumlo zeHezbollah ziba nkulu kakhulu, umntu uya kuzinqumla.
Yinto enye kuNasrallah kunye nomkhosi wakhe oxhobileyo - kunye nendoda yaseTehran - ukutshicela abantu baseMelika. Kodwa i-UN liqumrhu elisemthethweni lezizwe ngezizwe; indawo yokuzikhusela – nokuba akukho themba kangakanani na – kwabacinezelekileyo nabalahlwe lihlabathi.
Ngokwenene, kwakukho ixesha apho iHezbollah yayijinga ngokwenkolo-okanye phantse ngokwenkolo- kuso sonke isigqibo se-UN esigxeka uSirayeli.
Kodwa ngaba uMnu Ban ufuna ngokwenene ukuthatha iHezbollah? Kuba uyazi kakuhle ukuba iHezbollah "ineempumlo ezinkulu", i-Hezbollah ine-UN, ngokuthetha, ngeebhola (isoloko icinga ukuba i-UN inayo nayiphi na).
Kuba ezantsi kumda waseLebhanon ngamajoni ali-13,000 e-UN, kubandakanywa amajoni axhobileyo e-NATO asuka eFrance, eJamani naseBelgium- nase China, ngelixa siselapho- kunye neqela leenjengele ze-NATO eziyalelayo. Bafanele ukuba bagcine izixhobo ze-Hezbollah ngaphandle kwendawo ephakathi komlambo waseLitani kunye nomda, kodwa okokuqala kwiveki ephelileyo umlawuli we-UN wavuma ukuba ngaphandle kwamandla okungena kumakhaya abantu - ufuna imvume yomkhosi waseLebhanon kuloo nto (akukho kuhleka. ) - akanakuqiniseka ukuba akukho zixhobo kwindawo yakhe yokusebenza.
Konke oku kubuyela emva kugqabhuko-dubulo olukhulu ekuqaleni kwalo nyaka xa uvimba omkhulu wezixhobo wadubula kwimpuma yeTire. Ikholoneli yeZizwe eziManyeneyo yaseFransi engakhange ijike kancinane - ngenceba ngoku ebuyele eParis - wayalela amajoni aseFransi nawamaJamani ukuba atyhale iingcango zangaphambili zabantu bendawo ukuze akhangele imipu. Wayelunyukisiwe ngamagosa ezobuntlola omkhosi waseLebhanon ukuba angathuki abantu. Akazange anikele ngqalelo.
Bandula ke abagcini boxolo abangamaFrentshi ababegadile kumazantsi eLebanon bazifumanisa bexulutywa ngamatye. IHezbollah yathi ugqabhuko-dubulo yayiyeembumbulu zakudala zakwa-Israel ezasala kwimfazwe ka-2006. (Intsini apha).
AmaSirayeli ke angena kuwo wonke umcimbi, evelisa iifoto zasemoyeni - ezithathwe kwinqwelomoya engaphantsi komqhubi wenqwelomoya, isixhobo esiphambili kwimfazwe elandelayo ye-Hezbollah-Israel - ngebango lokuba babonisa umjukujelwa ongaqhushumbayo ulayishwe ngasemva kwilori. kwakwilali enye, ijongwe ngabadubuli beHezbollah abathathu. Ngokukhawuleza okudanyazayo, iHezbollah yeza nekhasethi yevidiyo ebonisa ilori enye. Kodwa "umjukujelwa" yayilucango lwegaraji olonakeleyo kwaye - yeha ku-Israyeli - "abadubuli" abathathu babebonakala ngokucacileyo njengamalungu e-UN's French battalion.
Kwaye kwiveki ephelileyo kwafika ukuthotywa ngakumbi, xa iqela labafazi bezindlu be-Hezbollah abangaxhomekanga lathi hlasi ibrifkheyisi yamaxwebhu ayimfihlo kubaphandi ababini benkundla yeZizwe eziManyeneyo njengoko babezama ukufumana iirekhodi zomnxeba kwiklinikhi ye-gynecology yaseBeirut.
Nditsho nabachasi baka-Nasrallah abaliqela kunye nabaxhasi bakarhulumente e-Beirut abakwazanga ukukucinezela ukuhleka kwabo xa i-Hezbollah ibamba iidonki ezimbini ezitratweni, nganye iphethe umfanekiso ogqibeleleyo wekhaka le-UN eliluhlaza phantsi kweentamo zabo ezinoboya. Kodwa kwakhona, musa ukuhleka ngokulula. Kwilizwe lama-Arabhu, idonki ithathwa njengelona rhamncwa lihlazisayo, elifanele ukubulawa. Ngoko qaphela i-UN. Kwaye ubuyele kumaSirayeli, agquma kakhulu "ngoloyiko lwehlabathi" njengoko uNasrallah esenza malunga nentshabalalo engenakuphepheka yakwaSirayeli. Ngeli xesha yayiyintloko yezobuntlola zomkhosi wakwa-Israel u-Amos Yaldin - akazange athathwe eLebhanon njengoyena uqaqambileyo emadodeni - owaxelela ikomiti yemicimbi yezangaphandle yeKnesset eYerusalem ukuba iHezbollah ingayithatha yonke iLebhanon "kwiiyure ezimbalwa".
Ukhuseleko lwakwa-Israel lwalujongelwa phantsi yimijukujelwa ye-Hezbollah kwaye kwandisa amathuba ongquzulwano, wathi-wayelapho-kodwa emva koko waya kwimo ye-apocalyptic njengazo zonke ezinye iinjengele zakwa-Israel ezize lusizi eLebhanon.
Imfazwe elandelayo, wathi, iya kuba yingozi kakhulu kunayo nayiphi na enye eLebhanon - oku kunzima ukucinga - kwaye "ayiyi kufana nantoni na esiye sayiqhela ngexesha leMfazwe yesiBini yaseLebhanon okanye (i) iCast lead ( ukusebenza eGaza).
Ngoku le yinto engaqhelekanga kakhulu, kuba imfazwe yesithathu yaseLebhanon - awayeyixelelwe kwangaphambili nguYaldin - yenzeka ngo-1993, uqhushumbo olukhulu olwakhupha abantu abamalunga nesigidi emazantsi eLebhanon.
Imfazwe yokuqala yakwaSirayeli neLebanon yayiluhlaselo luka-1978-i-Operation Litani, leyo u-Yaldin wayilibala ngokucacileyo-kwaza emva koko kwafika imfazwe yesibini yaseLebhanon ngo-1982 (i-Operation Peace for Galilee), u-Yaldin ngokumangalisayo acinga ukuba yayiyimfazwe yokuqala.
Kwalandela imfazwe ka-1993, emva koko imfazwe ka-1996 (i-Operation Grapes of Wrath) kwalandela imfazwe ye-Hezbollah ka-2006. Ngoko ke imfazwe elandelayo – emva kokusilela kwezintlanu ezidlulileyo – iya kuba yeyesithandathu kwaSirayeli.
Ke ngoku kuthetha ntoni konke oku?
Ewe, le nto siyibonayo kukubona amandla angaphandle alangazelela ukungenelela eLebhanon njengoko enzayo ngexesha lemfazwe yamakhaya eyayingenalusini ngo-1975-90. IWashington igxeka ngokubaluleka kwesi sigqeba, ngokunjalo iFransi- iBrits, oonozakuzaku bayo bathetha neHezbollah, bathe cwaka nangobulumko babuza ukuba kungahlehliswa na isityholo senkundla-ngelixa amaSyria nama-Irani bekhala kwingxaki ye-UN.
AmaSirayeli, njengesiqhelo, asoyikisa ngeArmagedon.
AbakwaSaudis, abaxhasa amaSunni - uHariri uphethe ipasipoti yaseSaudi - bebezama ukulamla.
Ke, ngendlela ebuyayo, yiba namaSiriya. Kwiveki ephelileyo, unozakuzaku waseSyria eLebhanon, u-Ali Abdul-Karim Ali, wamenyelwa isidlo sasemini bobabini unozakuzaku waseSaudi, u-Ali Awad al-Assiri, kunye nenombolo yakhe eyahlukileyo kwi-ambassy yase-Iran, uGhadanfar Rokon Abadi, isandla esidala saseBeirut esasilapha ngexesha. imfazwe yowe-1996. Konke oku kubonisa ukuba amazwe amaSilamsi alo mmandla akafuni mfazwe yamakhaya.
Kwaye iLebhanon? Umqhubi wam u-Abed, owayenemozulu entle njengaye nawuphi na, wayedla ngokuba nesincamathelisi esincinane esimnyama kwisipili semoto yakhe. "Haqiqa", yatsho.
Inyani. Wayelindele ukuba inkundla yamatyala imxelele inyani malunga nokuba ngubani owabulala uRafiq Hariri.
Ngeli xesha ndingekhoyo kweli hlobo, ngosizi olukhulu, wayidiliza.
I-ZNetwork ixhaswa ngemali kuphela ngesisa sabafundi bayo.
Nikela