Phakathi kwabo baphawula ngempembelelo evela emacaleni olawulo, kukho iindlela ezintsha ezibonakalayo ekucingeni ngazo Umgaqo-nkqubo wamazwe angaphandle waseMelika. Eyona nto ibalulekileyo kwezi zinto zixhalabisayo kukushenxiswa kwi-ajenda yasemva kwe-9/11 yokuchasana nabanqolobi ukuya kwisigaba esitsha senkxaso yomgaqo-nkqubo ongundoqo ogxininisa ukubaluleka kobuchule obuhlaziyiweyo bokukhuphisana ngokwelizwe phakathi kwamazwe aphambili azimeleyo. Kukwakho nokushenxa kwizilingo zokungenelela komkhosi kunye nokutshintsha kolawulo njengeqhinga elithandwayo laseNtshona lokugcina impembelelo kwihlabathi lasemva kobukoloniyali. Kukho ukuqonda, ubuncinci okwethutyana, ukuba ukungena kungenelelo lomkhosi, nokuba yi-Afghanistan, i-Iraq, okanye iLibya, yileyo nje-'izinto ezingezizo,' ukuba aziyofiscos. Kwaye kubiza kakhulu, kunqabile ukuba kube yimpumelelo naxa ukongama komkhosi kuthwaxwa.
Emva kweMfazwe yaseVietnam kwavela ukungafuni ukungenelela phesheya kweelwandle okwabizwa ngokugculelwa 'yiVietnam Syndrome.' Yanyamezela iminyaka engaphezu kweshumi ekugqibeleni yoyiswa luloyiso lwengozi ephantsi kwiMfazwe yeGulf. Ndicinga ukuba kukhuselekile ukucinga ukuba kulo lonke ubongameli baka-Obama, ukuthintela uphuhliso olukhulu olungalindelekanga, ukuba zombini ukulwa nobunqolobi kunye nokungenelela emkhosini kuya kuhlala kwindawo ephantsi kakhulu kwi-ajenda yomgaqo-nkqubo wangaphandle. Olu qwalaselo aluthethi ukuba imiba enjalo iya kunyamalala emehlweni, njengoko ingxoxo eqhubekayo eSyria ibonisa. Iyaxoxa into yokuba baya kuphathwa ziinkokeli zezopolitiko njengeGordian Knots, kwaye zibhekiswe kuphela ngononophelo nangobuchule.
Kodwa amaziko ombane ayalithiya i-geopolitical vacuum. Abaqulunqi bemigaqo-nkqubo kufuneka bafumane into eza kuthatha indawo yolandelelwano lwe-al-Qaeda kwiMfazwe Yomlomo kunye nolwamkelo lwenkululeko lweendlela ezinobundlobongela 'zoxolo lwedemokhrasi' olwathi okwexeshana lwakha inkxaso yongenelelo lwamaxesha ngamaxesha kwizinto ezingezizoKwihlabathi laseNtshona. Kubonakala ngathi ivacuum inokuzaliswa kukubuyela 'kumdlalo omkhulu' wezopolitiko zamandla amakhulu.
Akumangalisi ukuba kufuneka sijonge kuqala kwiWall Street ukufumana imikhondo, kwaye asiyi kudana. Umgangatho wegolide wongxowankulu bezemali kwixesha lokudityaniswa kwehlabathi, Goldman Sachs, esele ngo-2001 yazisa uluntu olunomdla ngokubaluleka kokutshintsha kwembonakalo yelizwe kunye nesifinyezo esikrelekrele sayo. IiBRICs, oko kukuthi, eBrazil, eRashiya, eIndiya naseTshayina. UJim O'Neill, ingcali yezoqoqosho eGoldman Sachs, wayecebise ekuqaleni ngesifinyezo kwiphepha lohlalutyo malunga neentsingiselo zehlabathi. Ayizange ifumaneke kuncwadi olubanzi de kwangowe-2008 okanye ngo-2009.
Enyanisweni, uGoldman Sachs wayexelela ihlabathi lotyalo-mali ukuba lithathele ingqalelo imingeni kunye namathuba omdla waseMelika naseNtshona kumgaqo-nkqubo wezoqoqosho wehlabathi onxulumene nala magunya akhulayo. Ewe, ukubeka iRashiya kuluhlu kwakubonakala kungaqhelekanga kwabanye ngenxa yokuba amandla abo omkhosi, ubukhulu, kunye nezibonelelo zabo zoncedo zazithetha ukuba abazange baphume kuluhlu, kwaye ngokwembono echaseneyo, impumelelo yayo yezoqoqosho ayizange ibe yinto enomdla kakhulu ukuyibeka. udidi olufanayo nolona qoqosho lukhula ngokukhawuleza. Abanye bacebise ukuba indawo ebiyelweyo ye-BRIC ikhuphele ngaphandle amanye amazwe afana noMzantsi Afrika, iTurkey, ne-Indonesia ebefanele ukuhoywa ngendlela efanayo xa kujongwe impumelelo yezoqoqosho, uzinzo kwezopolitiko, kunye nokwanda kokuzinza kwengingqi nehlabathi.
Nangona kunjalo, xa sithetha ngokubanzi, ingqikelelo ye-BRIC yayinokuthenjwa ngokwelizwe, kwaye yabanjwa, hayi kancinci phakathi kwamazwe e-BRIC ngokwawo, athe asamkele esi satifikethi sesimo kunye nokufaneleka. Yanikwa ukuqinisekiswa kobukrelekrele ngulo neocon heavyweight, uRobert Kagan, kwincwadi yakhe, The UkuBuyiswa kweMbali kunye nokuphela kwamaphupha (Inew york: Knopf, 2008), owathi eneneni wacebisa ukuba ikhefu emva kweMfazwe ebandayo kwiminyaka yee-1990 eyayibonakala ikhululekile kwi-geopolitics yayiyi-hiatus ekhohlisayo. Umqolo wemo yezopolitiko yehlabathi ubuyile.
YeyaseIndiya naseBrazil indala amaphupha yobulungu beBhunga lezoKhuseleko kunye nempembelelo yengingqi yaba ntsha kwezopolitiko iiprojekthi. Ukusuka kwi-G-8 ukuya kwi-G-20 yokwenziwa komgaqo-nkqubo woqoqosho lwehlabathi yaba kukuvuma okungathanga ngqo ukuba imeko yehlabathi yayitshintsha ngeendlela ezifuna ukumelwa okungaphezulu koMzantsi ukuze ube nalo naliphi na ithemba lempumelelo nokuba semthethweni.
Okwangoku, kubonakala kukho ukuphononongwa kwakhona kwenkxalabo ye-geopolitical: I-Brazil kunye ne-Indiya okwangoku ziphulukene namabango azo ukuba athathwe njengabagqatswa bezihlalo eziphambili, ngelixa i-China ne-Russia ziye zawagcina, ukuba awaphuculanga amabango azo. I-China, ngakumbi, ngaphandle kokucotha koqoqosho lwayo lokukhula okungaqhelekanga ukuya kwinqanaba eliya kwenza iNtshona yezopolitiko ixoke ngovuyo nokuzingca, ibonwa njengesoyikiso kulawulo lwehlabathi laseMelika. Umongameli ka-Obama ubonakala eyivuma le nyaniso ngokubhengeza 'i-pivot' e-Asia eyayisisigidimi esifihlakeleyo esiya eBeijing: eunited States ijolise ekulandeleni idiplomacy 'yesithintelo esithambileyo' sase-China njengeyona nto iphambili kumgaqo-nkqubo wayo wexesha elizayo. Olu hlengahlengiso lube lulandelelwano oluphawulekayo kwipivot yee-1990s ukusuka eYurophu ukuya kuMbindi Mpuma.
Ezi nkcazo zamva nje zokuxhalaba malunga nokulungelelaniswa kwe-US kwisetingi yokhuseleko eguqukayo inika iintlobo ezimbini zokusabela. Eyokuqala iboniswa ngamagqabantshintshi acingisisiweyo kaColin Dueck, uMfo e Umgaqo-nkqubo wezangaphandle woPhando, ngokubaluleka ngokubanzi kwe-geopolitics ekwakheni umgaqo-nkqubo wangaphandle. I-Dueck iphosakele kumgaqo-nkqubo wamazwe angaphandle waseMelika hayi kwi-pivot eya e-Asiya, kodwa kwinto ayibiza ngokuba 'yi-under-resourced' ukuphunyezwa kwayo, nto leyo ayigxininisayo ingqinwa kukuthotywa kwamva nje kuhlahlo lwabiwo-mali loMkhosi waManzi wase-US. Uqukumbela ngelithi "..impendulo yase-US kwi-China ekhulayo khange yanele." [Colin Dueck, “Geopolitics Reborn,” E-Notes, Foreign Policy Research Institute, Philadelphia, PA, July 2013] Imbono enjalo ye-geopolitics ibotshelelwe ngokucacileyo kwizibalo zamandla anzima ngokusekelwe kwi-arhente yembali yokuphakama komkhosi, kwaye ayithathi akhawunti. yokudityaniswa kwehlabathi, uthungelwano, amandla athambileyo okuyila kwezozakuzo, kunye nokunyuka kwabadlali abangengabo urhulumente kunye nemibutho yentlalontle yezizwe ngezizwe ezithi xa zizonke zenze enye isithembiso 'semolitiko yelizwe entsha.'
Emva koko kukho umbono kaLeslie Gelb kunye UDimitri Simes, ii-titans ezimbini zomgaqo-nkqubo wangaphandle waseMelika wokusekwa kwengqondo, ababhala kwi ENew York Times [“I-Axis Entsha Yokuchasana NoMelika,” Julayi 6, 2013; UGelb ngumongameli wangaphambili weBhunga lezoBudlelwane baNgaphandle kunye negosa lePentagon; USimes ngumongameli weZiko loMdla weSizwe kunye nomshicileli we Umdla weSizwe], sifuna ukuba singathatheli ingqalelo amazwe ahlukeneyo njengemicelimngeni, kodwa ubudlelwane obuvelayo obuchasene neMelika obudibanisa iTshayina neRussia kunye ekuthinteleni uyilo lwehlabathi laseMelika. Ngokungaqhelekanga, basebenzisa njengomzekelo wabo oxelayo wophuhliso olusongelayo, intsebenziswano phakathi kweTshayina neRussia ekwenzeni ukuba u-Edward Snowden abaleke kwiinzame zaseMelika zokufumana ukugcinwa kuye ngokulungiselela ukubaleka kwakhe ukusuka eHong Kong ukuya eMoscow. Into enokuthi ibhengezwe njengokhuseleko lomntu omangalelwe 'ngolwaphulo-mthetho lwezopolitiko' (kwaye ngenxa yoko, ekhululwe ekubuyiselweni ngaphandle), inikwe ngokwemigaqo yenkqubo yangaphandle ekrwada nguGelb noSimes.
Balatha kweso siganeko njengobungqina bokuba iTshayina neRashiya “iqinile ngakumbi yaye ikulungele ukuthabatha amanyathelo ngeendleko zeMerika.” Phakathi kwemizekelo eyongezelelweyo ekhankanyiweyo kukwala ukubuyisela iNtshona kwi-UN malunga neSyria, ukuqhekezwa kwamaTshayina kwiiwebhusayithi zenkampani yaseMelika, kunye nokuhlaselwa kwe-cyber yaseRussia kwiintshaba zabo. Ngaphandle kweSyria, ezi ezinye izikhalazo zibhekisa kwimigaqo-nkqubo yelizwe engenziwanga ngentsebenziswano ngala mazwe mabini. Kwakhona, ngophawu lwe-myopia yaseMelika, akukho lwazi lokuba i-United States inokwenza izinto ezisoyikisa kakhulu iBeijing neMoscow, nokuba intsebenziswano yabo inokuba eneneni, ilungelelene, inobulumko kwaye ibe luncedo kuluntu jikelele. Ezo ndlela zokujonga ubuzwe kwi-geopolitics zithatha 'ibhalansi' kuphela enqwenelekayo ukuqulatha 'enye,' hayi 'isiqu.' Ukusuka kwimbono yembali enenjongo, ngokuqwalasela indima ye-United States yehlabathi kule minyaka ingamashumi amabini idlulileyo, kubonakala ngathi i-diplomacy yaseWashington yamandla evelise iimfazwe ezinde nezitshabalalisayo, inkxaso engalinganiyo ku-Israel, uhlaselo lwe-cyber oluchasene ne-Iran, ulawulo lwehlabathi jikelele lokucupha, kunye neendawo ezidume kakubi zokuvalelwa ezinxulunyaniswa no-Abu Ghraib kunye neGuantanamo zizoyikiso ezinkulu kumyalelo wehlabathi onobubele kunokunika u-Snowden indawo engcwele.
Ingxabano enkulu ebekwe phambili nguGelb kunye noSimes ibaluleke kakhulu. Icebisa ukuba kuya kubaluleka ukunqanda ukungakhathali okanye ubundlongondlongo ekuphenduleni xa kuqondwa ukuba intsebenziswano yehlabathi phakathi kweTshayina neRussia, ukuba ayilungiswanga kakuhle, "inokubeka umngcipheko omkhulu kwiMelika nakwihlabathi." Iyaqonda ukuba ngaphandle kolu thintelo ngala mazwe achaseneyo kukwakho umdla ofanayo oqinileyo kurhwebo kunye nokuzinza koqoqosho lwehlabathi, kunye nakwimiba ethile yeenkxalabo zokhuseleko, kubandakanywa neenkqubo zenyukliya zaseNorth Korea kunye ne-Iranian. UGelb noSimes bacacile malunga nokungafuni ukuvuselela iMfazwe Yomlomo, kwaye ngokuqinisekileyo abayiyo imigaqo-nkqubo yokucebisa ebeka ingozi kwiimfazwe zomkhosi, kodwa kunoko bathanda umgaqo-nkqubo wokuqina okhethiweyo kunye nentsebenziswano yepragmatic. Kukho ukuqatshelwa kwenqanaba elithile lobuninzi malunga nolawulo lwengxabano, ebonisa ukuba imingeni yokhuseleko njengangoku eyenziwa yi-Iran, iSiriya, kunye neNorth Korea inokusingathwa kuphela ngendlela esebenzayo nesebenzayo ukuba iChina neRashiya ziyavumelana. ukusebenzisana ne-United States. Basenokuba bongeze utshintsho lwemozulu, ukhuseleko lokutya, kunye nomgaqo-nkqubo weembacu njengeendawo apho intsebenziswano ibonakala ibalulekile. Ukungaphumeleli ukuvelisa le ngxubevange yonxibelelwano oluxhathisayo kunye nentsebenziswano kuya kuba, ngamazwi abo, "bubudenge bembali."
Eyona nto ibalulekileyo kukuqaphela oku kubuyela ekulahlweni kwayo nayiphi na inkohliso yohlobo olwathi lwavela emva kweMfazwe yoMthandazo ngeendlela ezahlukeneyo ezifana 'nexesha elingaqhelekanga' okanye 'ukuphela kwembali.' Kukwabonakala kukho ukuqonda okucacileyo ukuba i-20th Umzabalazo wenkulungwane kwikamva leYurophu awusenamdla we-geopolitical, kwaye iYurophu ayingomkhosi ozimeleyo wezopolitiko kwinqanaba lehlabathi ngendlela iTshayina neRussia eziyiyo. Ikwamele umva ukusuka kumbono wehlabathi we-BRIC njengoko iBrazil neIndiya zinokuphinda zingahoywa ngokukhuselekileyo kwimbono yehlabathi. Mhlawumbi, kodwa kuphela njengento enokwenzeka yangaphandle, uGelb noSimes bangabaphambili bobukrelekrele be 'trilateralism entsha' eyakhiwe malunga nombono wokuba isangqa esitsha 'sesizwe esiyimfuneko' sandisiwe ngaphaya kwe-United States ukubandakanya iChina neRussia.
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Nikela