Umthombo: Ukuhanjiswa ukusuka kuMda
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Ukuba ulawulo lukaTrump lulandela isoyikiso salo phinda Uqalele kuvavanyo lwenyukliya, iya kugqibezela ukutyhilwa kwezivumelwano zolawulo lwezixhobo ezingaphezu kweminyaka engama-50, ibuyisela ihlabathi kwimihla yaxa abantwana besikolo babeqhelisela “idada nesigqubuthelo,” yaye abantu bakha iindawo zokufihla iibhombu emva kwendlu.
Ngokuqinisekileyo iya kuba linyathelo lokufa kwiSivumelwano soVavanyo oluBanzi, esapasiswa yiNgqungquthela yeZizwe eziManyeneyo ngowe-1996. Esi siVumelwano asizange siqalise ukusebenza ngenxa yokuba, ngoxa amazwe ali-184 aye asivuma, amazwe asibhozo angundoqo angekatyikityi: i-US, China, Indiya, Pakistan, Egypt, Israel, Iran and North Korea.
U-Evan ngaphandle kokuqinisekiswa, iSivumelwano sibe nesiphumo. Amazwe amaninzi axhobe ngenyukliya, kuquka i-US, iBritane, neRussia, ayekile ukuvavanywa ekuqaleni koo-1990. I-China kunye neFransi zayeka ngo-1996 kunye ne-India kunye nePakistan ngo-1998. I-North Korea kuphela iyaqhubeka nokuvavanya.
Ukuyekiswa kovavanyo kwanceda ukucotha ukutyhala ukwenza izixhobo zibe zincinci, zibe khaphukhaphu kwaye zibe yingozi ngakumbi, nangona ekuhambeni kweminyaka amazwe afunde ukuyila izixhobo eziyingozi ngakumbi esebenzisa iikhompyuter kunye novavanyo olubaluleke kakhulu. Umzekelo, ngaphandle kokuvavanya nasiphi na isixhobo, i-US isandula ukwenza a "super fuze" loo nto yenza ukuba iintloko zayo zemfazwe zikwazi ngakumbi ukunkqonkqoza ii-silos ezijulwayo zomchasi. IWashington nayo isandula ukusasaza intloko yemfazwe enesivuno esiphantsi kakhulu engekachithwa.
Nangona kunjalo, ukuvalwa kovavanyo kuye kwacothisa ukuveliswa kwezixhobo zenyukliya kwaye kwanciphisa ukwanda kwazo kwamanye amazwe. Ukuphela kwayo ngokuqinisekileyo kuya kuvulela abanye amasango—iSaudi Arabia, iOstreliya, iIndonesia, iSouth Korea, iJapan, iTurkey, neBrazil—ukuba bazibandakanye neqela lenyukliya.
UBeatrice Fihn weCampaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons uthi: “Iya kuvula naliphi na ithuba lokuphepha ugqatso olutsha lwezixhobo zenyukliya, kwaye “igqibezele ukukhukuliseka kwenkqubo-sikhokelo yokulawula izixhobo zehlabathi.”
Ngelixa ulawulo lweTrump lukhawulezise ukurhoxa kwizivumelwano zenyukliya, kubandakanywa iSicwangciso esiDibeneyo sokuSebenza kunye ne-Iran, iSivumelwano se-Intermediate Nuclear Force Agreement, kunye ne-START II, ukuchithwa kwezivumelwano kubuyela emva phantse iminyaka engama-20.
Emngciphekweni luluhlu lwezivumelwano ezisusela emva kowe-1963 iSivumelwano soVavanyo esingaQhangayo soVavanyo olwaphelisa uvavanyo lwe-atmospheric. Eso sivumelwano sokuqala yaba luloyiso olubalulekileyo lwempilo yoluntu. Isizukulwana se "down winders" e-Australia, i-American Southwest, i-South Pacific kunye ne-Siberia isahlawula ixabiso lovavanyo oluvulekileyo.
UVavanyo oluNgaphelelanga loVavanyo lukwaphule isiseko sezinye izivumelwano ezininzi.
ISivumelwano seNuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) sowe-1968 sanqanda ukwanda kwezixhobo zenyukliya saza savala amazwe anezixhobo zenyukliya ukuba agrogrise amazwe angeyonyukliya ngezixhobo ezitshabalalisayo. Ngelishwa, iindawo eziphambili zesivumelwano azikhange zihoywe ngawona magunya amakhulu enyukliya, ngakumbi iSiqendu VI esifuna ukuthotywa kwezixhobo zenyukliya, kulandele ukuthotywa kwezixhobo ngokubanzi.
Okwalandela i-NPT yayiluthotho lwezivumelwano ezathi kancinane zadiliza amashumi amawaka eemfazwe ezikwaziyo ukutshabalalisa umhlaba ngokoqobo. Ngesinye isikhathi, i-US neRashiya yayineemfazwe ezingaphezu kwe-50,000 phakathi kwazo.
ISivumelwano se-Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty sowe-1972 sanciphisa amathuba ohlaselo lokuqala oluchasene nelinye igunya lenyukliya. Kwangaloo nyaka, iSivumelwano soBuchule bokuLimited Arms (SALT I) sabeka umda kwinani lemijukujelwa yoluhlu olude. Kwiminyaka emibini kamva, i-SALT II yanciphisa inani leemfazwe ezininzi eziphazamisayo kwimijukujelwa kunye nokubeka iisilingi kwiibhombu kunye nemijukujelwa.
ISivumelwano se-Intermediate Nuclear Force sowe-1987 savala imijukujelwa yoluhlu oluphakathi esekwe emhlabeni eYurobhu neyayibeke ilizwekazi kwisixhobo sokuxhokonxa iinwele. Kwiminyaka emine kamva, u-START ndalinciphisa inani lamajoni aseRashiya naseMelika ngama-80 ekhulwini. Oko kushiye icala ngalinye lineentloko zemfazwe ezingama-6,000 kunye nemijukujelwa eyi-1600 kunye neziqhushumbisi. Kuya kuthatha iminyaka engama-20 ukuthethathethana nge-START II, eyanciphisa amacala omabini ukuya kwi-1550 esetyenzisiweyo kwiimfazwe zenyukliya kwaye yagxotha iimfazwe ezininzi kwimijukujelwa esekwe emhlabeni.
Konke oku kusemngciphekweni wokuwa. Ngoxa i-Trump iye yahoxiswa kwizivumelwano, yayinguMongameli uGeorge W. Bush ukulahlwa kweSivumelwano se-Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty kwi-2002 eyakhupha i-domino yokuqala.
Ukufa kwesivumelwano se-ABM kwabeka ingozi yogwayimbo lokuqala etafileni kwaye kwaqalisa ugqatso olutsha lwezixhobo, Njengoko ulawulo luka-Obama lwaqala ukuhambisa ii-ABM eYurophu, eMzantsi Korea naseJapan, amaRashiya aqalisa ukuyila izixhobo zokuzoyisa.
Ukutshatyalaliswa kwe-ABM kukwakhokelela ekutshatyalalisweni kweSivumelwano soMkhosi weNyukliya ePhakathi (INF) esavala imijukujelwa ephakathi, esekwe emhlabeni ukusuka eYurophu. I-US yabanga ukuba amaRussia aphula i-INF ngokuthumela umjukujelwa wokuhamba ngenqanawa onokufakwa kwimfazwe yenyukliya. Abantu baseRussia baphikisa ukuba inkqubo ye-ABM yaseMelika, iMark 41 Ageis Ashore, inokumiswa ngendlela efanayo. I-Moscow yanikezela ukuba ivumele uhambo lwayo luhlolwe, kodwa I-NATO yayingenamdla.
I-White House ikwenze kwacaca ukuba ayisayi kuhlaziya isivumelwano se-START II ngaphandle kokuba iquka imijukujelwa ephakathi yaseTshayina, kodwa leyo yipilisi enetyhefu. AmaTshayina amalunga nesinye kwisihlanu yenani leentloko zemfazwe iRussia ne-US, kwaye uninzi lwabachasi baseTshayina-iIndiya, iJapan, kunye neziseko zase-US kulo mmandla-ziphakathi koluhlu oluphakathi.
Ngelixa imijukujelwa yomgangatho ophakathi waseTshayina kunye neRussia ayisongeli ilizwe laseMelika, imijukujelwa yoluhlu oluphakathi lwase-US eAsia naseYurophu inokuwatshabalalisa omabini la mazwe. Enoba yintoni na, isivumelwano esinjalo siya kumiselwa njani? Ngaba i-US kunye neRussia inganciphisa isitokhwe sabo semfazwe ukuya eTshayina Izixhobo ze-300, okanye iChina yayiza kwandisa amanqanaba ezixhobo zayo ukuze ihambelane neMoscow neWashington? Zombini azinakwenzeka.
Ukuba i-START II iyahamba, yenza njalo imida kwiintloko zemfazwe kunye nabaqalisi, kwaye sibuyele ekuphakameni kweMfazwe ebandayo.
Ngoba?
Kumanqanaba amaninzi oku akukho ngqiqo. IRashiya kunye ne-US zineentloko ezingaphezu kwe-12,000 phakathi kwazo, ngaphezu kokwaneleyo ukuphelisa impucuko. Uphononongo lwakutsha nje lwempembelelo yemfazwe yenyukliya yengingqi phakathi kwe-Indiya nePakistan ifumanise ukuba ingaba neempembelelo kwihlabathi jikelele ngokuguqula iipateni zemvula kunye nokuphazamisa ezolimo. Khawucinge ukuba yintoni imfazwe yenyukliya ebandakanya iChina, iRashiya, kunye ne-US kunye namahlakani ayo.
Ngokuyinxenye lo ngumbandela wokunyoluka nje.
Inkqubo entsha iya indleko kuluhlu lwe-1.7 yeebhiliyoni zeedola, kunye nokuba nokwenzeka kokungaphezulu. Ukwenza la maxesha “amathathu” kuya kufuna imijukujelwa emitsha, iinqanawa, iziqhushumbisi kunye neentloko zemfazwe, zonke eziya kutyebisa phantse onke amacandelo oshishino lwezixhobo zase-US.
Kodwa oku kungaphezulu kosuku lokurhola olutyebileyo. Kukho icandelo lomkhosi wase-US kunye neqela lezopolitiko elingathanda ukusebenzisa izixhobo zenyukliya kwinqanaba elilinganiselweyo. Uphononongo lwe-2018 Nuclear Posture lubuyisela umva ngokucacileyo Ulawulo luka-Obama zishenxe kwizixhobo zenyukliya, zibethelela ukubaluleka kwazo kwimfundiso yomkhosi wase-US.
Yiloo nto ithethwa yimfazwe yesivuno esiphantsi esandula kuthunyelwa kwinqanawa yase-US ye-Trident. I I-W76-2 ipakisha i-five-kiloton punch, okanye malunga nesinye kwisithathu amandla ebhombu awela e-Hiroshima, kude kakhulu kwiimfazwe zenyukliya eziqhelekileyo kunye nezivuno ze-100 kilotons ukuya kwi-475 kilotons.
Ingqiqo yase-US kukuba i-warhead encinci iya kunqanda amaRashiya ekusebenziseni iimfazwe zabo zenyukliya eziphantsi kwe-NATO, Ulawulo lukaTrump luthi amaRashiya anesicwangciso sokwenza kanye loo nto, ecinga ukuba i-US iya kuthandabuza ukubeka umngcipheko kutshintshiselwano lwenyukliya ngoku. ukuphendula ngoluhlobo. Kukho, enyanisweni, ubungqina obuncinci icebo elinjalo likhona, kwaye iMoscow iyaliphika.
Ngokolawulo lukaTrump, iChina kunye neRussia nazo ukuphula umthetho ukuvalwa kovavanyo lwenyukliya ngokumisela isivuno esiphantsi, kunzima ukusibhaqa, iimfazwe. Akukho bungqina buveliswayo obubonisa oku, kwaye akukho nzululwazi inzulu iyasixhasa esi sityholo. Ukufunyanwa kwezixhobo zale mihla zenyikima kusebenza kakuhle kangangokuba kunokubona iintloko zemfazwe ezisilelayo ukuya kubaluleka, okubizwa ngokuba zii-duds.
Ukubamba ibhere-kunye nenamba ehlatywayo kwimeko yase China-yindlela ezamayo neyinyani yokuvula i-arms spigot.
Enye yale nto imalunga nokwenza abavelisi beengalo kunye neenjengele zonwabe, kodwa ikwamalunga nento yokuba imfazwe yokugqibela ephumeleleyo yi-US yayiyiGrenada. Umkhosi wase-US ulahlekile e-Afghanistan nase-Iraq, eyenziwe ngokungcola kweLibya, iSomalia kunye neSiriya, kwaye uzama ukuzikhupha kwi-Yemen.
Khawucinge nje ukuba ezinye zezo mfazwe zaliwa ngee-nukes eziphantsi kwesivuno? Ngelixa kubonakala ngathi kuphosakele-njengokusebenzisa iziqhushumbisi zesandla ukukhupha iimbovane zasekhitshini-abanye bathi ukuba asizisusi iiglavu siya kuqhubeka siphulukene neemfazwe okanye sixinzelele phantsi.
I-Pentagon iyazi ukuba amaRashiya ayisosisongelo esiqhelekileyo kuba i-US kunye ne-NATO zininzi kakhulu kwaye zichitha iMoscow. I-China ingaphezulu komceli mngeni oqhelekileyo, kodwa naluphi na ungquzulwano olukhulu lunokuhamba ngenyukliya kwaye akukho mntu ufuna loo nto.
Ngokutsho kwePentagon, i-W76-2 ingasetyenziselwa ukuphendula "kuhlaselo olubalulekileyo olungelulo lwenyukliya" e-US okanye "iziseko zoncedo" ezisebenzisana nayo, kubandakanya. imfazwe ye-cyber. Oko kunokubandakanya i-Iran.
Ekuqaleni kwexesha lakhe, uMongameli uTrump Xa ebuzwa kutheni i-US ingakwazi ukusebenzisa izixhobo zayo zenyukliya. Ukuba iWashington iphumelele i-torpedo START II kwaye iphinde iqale uvavanyo, unokufumana ukwenza kanye loo nto.
I-ZNetwork ixhaswa ngemali kuphela ngesisa sabafundi bayo.
Nikela