Umthombo: Ukuhanjiswa ukusuka kuMda
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Xa uMongameli waseTurkey u-Recep Tayyip Erdogan uxelele intlanganiso yezoqoqosho kwisixeko Sivas ngoSeptemba 4 ukuba iTurkey yayicinga ukwakha izixhobo zenyukliya, wayesabela kwisithembiso esaphukileyo.
Xa iNkulumbuso yakwaSirayeli uBenjamin Netanyahu watyhola urhulumente wase-Iran buxoki ngenkqubo yayo yenyukliya, wayefihla enye yezona nkohliso zibalaseleyo kwimbali yezixhobo zenyukliya.
Kwaye uninzi lwabantu baseMelika abanalo nofifi malunga nalo.
Ekuseni ngoSeptemba 22, 1979, isathelayithi yaseMelika yarekhoda a flash kabini kufutshane neziqithi zasePrince Edward kuMzantsi weAtlantiki. Isathelayithi, iVela 5B, iphethe isixhobo esibizwa ngokuba yi “bhangmeter” esinjongo yayo ikukubona ugqabhuko-dubulo lwenyukliya. Yathunyelwa kumjikelo wokujikeleza emva kokutyikitywa kweSivumelwano soVavanyo esingaPhambili ngo-1963, umsebenzi wayo ibikukubeka esweni nakuphi na ukwaphulwa kwesivumelwano. ISivumelwano sakuvala ukuqhushumba kwenyukliya emoyeni, ngaphantsi kwamanzi nakwindawo.
Ugqabhuko-dubulo lwenyukliya lunophawu olulodwa. Xa isixhobo siqhushumba, sithumela ukukhanya kokuqala, kodwa njengoko i-fireball isanda, iphola i-milliseconds embalwa, iphinde iphinde iphinde iphinde iphinde iphinde iphinde iphinde iqhube.
UVictor Gilinsky uthi: “Akukho nto kwindalo evelisa ukukhanya okuphindwe kabini ngolu hlobo. "Isithuba se-hump sibonisa ubungakanani bamandla, okanye isivuno, esikhutshwe lugqabhuko-dubulo." U-Gilinsky wayelilungu leKhomishini yoLawulo lweNyukliya yase-US kunye nowayesakuba yingcali yefiziksi yaseRand Corporation.
Kwakungekho mbuzo omncinci wokuba ngubani owenze uvavanyo. Iziqithi zasePrince Edward bezizezoMzantsi Afrika kwaye ezobuntlola zase-US zazisazi ukuba urhulumente wocalucalulo wayeqhuba uphando ngezixhobo zenyukliya, kodwa kwakungekaveli. Kodwa u-Israyeli wayene-nukes kwaye omabini la mazwe ayenobudlelwane obusondeleyo emkhosini. Ngamafutshane, yayiphantse ibe sisixhobo sikaSirayeli, nangona uSirayeli wayekhanyela.
Kwiiveki ezilandelayo, ubungqina obucacileyo bovavanyo lwenyukliya bavela kwii-hydrophones kufuphi ne-Ascension Island kunye nokutsiba kwe-iodine ye-radioactive-131 kwiigusha zase-Australia. Kuphela kuqhushumbo lwenyukliya kuvelisa iodine-131.
Kodwa olu vavanyo lufike ngexesha elibi kuMongameli waseMelika uJimmy Carter, owayelungiselela unyulo kwakhona, ilitye lembombo ekusisivumelwano soxolo phakathi kukaSirayeli neJiphutha.
Ukuba amaSirayeli abonwa ukuba aphule i-Partial Test Ban, kunye ne-1977 Glenn Amendment kuMthetho woLawulo lokuThunyelwa kweArms Export, i-US yayiza kufuneka ukuba inqumle yonke intengiso yezixhobo kuSirayeli kwaye isebenzise izigwebo ezinzima. UCarter wayenexhala malunga nokuba yintoni umphumo onjalo oza kuba nawo kunyulo, kuba inxalenye enkulu yeqonga likaCarter yayikulawula iingalo kunye nokungabonakali.
Ngoko uCarter wahlanganisa iqela leengcali umsebenzi wazo wawungekuko ukuhlolisisa eso siganeko kodwa ukusigubungela. Iphaneli yaseRuina yapheka ingcaciso ethuthunjisiweyo ebandakanya i-mini-meteors ezamkelwa ngamajelo eendaba kwaye, ngenxa yoko, ngokunjalo noluntu lwaseMelika.
Kodwa iingcali zefiziksi yenyukliya zazisazi ukuba iphaneli yayiqhumisa umsi kwaye ubungqina abunakuphikiswa. Isixhobo sibekwe kwi-barge phakathi kwe-Prince Edward Island kunye ne-Marion Island (yangaphambili akufanele idideke kunye ne-Canada yase-Prince Edward Island) kunye nesivuno esivela kwi-3 ukuya kwi-4 kilotons. Iphaneli yeCIA eyimfihlo yavumelana kodwa yabeka isivuno kwi-1.5 ukuya kwi-2 kilotons. Ukuthelekisa, ibhombu yaseHiroshima yayizikhilotoni ezili-15.
Kwaye kwacaca ukuba kutheni amaSirayeli athatha umngcipheko. I-Israel yayineqela leebhombu ze-Hiroshima-fission kodwa yayisebenzela ukuvelisa isixhobo se-thermonuclear-ibhombu ye-hydrogen. Iibhombu zeFission kulula ukuzisebenzisa, kodwa izixhobo zokudibanisa zikhohlisa kwaye zifuna uvavanyo. Into yokuba uVela wayichola yayilithuba elimsulwa, kuba isathelayithi yayisele irhoxile. Kodwa iibhangmeter zayo zazisasebenza.
Ukusuka kwiCarter ukuya phambili, wonke umongameli wase-US uye wagubungela ukwaphulwa kwe-Israel ye-1963 Partial Test Ban Treaty, kunye ne-1968 Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). Ke xa uNetanyahu esithi i-Iran iyaxoka ngenkqubo yayo yenyukliya, uninzi lwehlabathi liphela, kubandakanya ne-US yenyukliya, iphosa amehlo.
Ngokuphathelele uMongameli waseTurkey u-Erdogan, uchanekile ngokupheleleyo ukuba amandla enyukliya aphule isithembiso abasenzayo ngo-1968 xa i-NPT yasayina i-NPT. ISiqendu VI seso sivumelwano sifuna ukuba kupheliswe ugqatso lwezixhobo zenyukliya kunye nokupheliswa kwezixhobo zenyukliya. Ngokwenene, ngeendlela ezininzi iNqaku VI yintliziyo ye-NPT. Amazwe angekho ngenyukliya atyikitye isivumelwano, azifumana evaleleke kwinkqubo “yocalucalulo lwenyukliya,” apho avumayo ukuba angazifumani izixhobo zokutshabalalisa, ngelixa iTshayina, iRussia, iGreat Britain, iFrance kunye ne-US zigcina. zabo.
I-"Big Five" ayigcinanga nje izixhobo zabo, zonke zikwinkqubo yokuphucula kunye nokwandisa. I-US ikwaphalaza ezinye izivumelwano, ezifana neSivumelwano soMjuxuzo wokuNqanda iBallistic kunye neSivumelwano soMkhosi weNyukliya woLuhlu oluPhakathi. IWashington nayo ilungiselela ukuyishiya START isivumelwano esinciphisa i-US kunye neRashiya kwinani elimiselweyo leentloko zemfazwe kunye nabaqalisi beqhinga elide.
Okumangalisayo kukuba amanye amazwe amane kuphela ayishiyile i-NPT: i-Israel, iNorth Korea, iPakistan kunye neIndiya (kuphela mathathu okugqibela avunywe yi-US). Kodwa loo meko ayinakuhlala ngonaphakade, ngakumbi njengoko inxalenye yeSiqendu VI ibiza ukuthotywa kwezixhobo ngokubanzi, isibambiso esiye sahlonitshwa ngokwaphulwa. I-US okwangoku inebhajethi enkulu yokhuselo kwimbali yayo kwaye ichitha malunga neepesenti ezingama-47 zezinto ezichithwa lihlabathi liphela kwimikhosi yabo.
Ngelixa i-US ibonakala ingakwazi ukuphumelela iimfazwe ngalo mkhosi mkhulu-i-Afghanistan kunye ne-Iraq yayiziintlekele-inokubangela umonakalo omkhulu onokuthi amazwe ambalwa azimisele ukuwufunxa. Nokuba iWashington ingabheneli emkhosini wayo, izohlwayo zayo zinokutshabalalisa uqoqosho lwelizwe kwaye ihlwempuzeke abemi bayo. INorth Korea kunye ne-Iran ngamatyala kwindawo.
Ukuba i-US yayizimisele ukugubungela uvavanyo lwe-1979 yase-Israel, ngelixa igweba amanye amazwe afumana izixhobo zenyukliya, kutheni umntu ecinga ukuba oku akukho nto ngaphandle kohanahaniso kumxholo wokwanda? Kwaye ukuba i-NPT sisixhobo nje sokuqinisekisa ukuba amanye amazwe akakwazi ukuzikhusela kwimikhosi yezinye izizwe kunye/okanye yenyukliya, kutheni umntu angasayina okanye ahlale kwiSivumelwano?
Umongameli waseTurkey u-Erdogan usenokuba uyaphazama. Uyayithanda i-bombast kwaye uyisebenzisa ngokufanelekileyo ukugcina iintshaba zakhe zingasebenzi. Isisongelo sinokuba sisicwangciso sokwenza i-US irhoxe kwinkxaso yayo ku-Israyeli kunye neGrisi kwiinzame zabo ezidibeneyo zokuphuhlisa imithombo yamandla kwimpuma yoLwandle lweMeditera.
Kodwa iTurkey nayo inenkxalabo yokhuseleko. Kweyakhe intetho, u-Erdogan wabonisa ukuba "Kukho uSirayeli ecaleni kwethu. Ngaba banazo [izixhobo zenyukliya]? Bayayenza.” Uqhube wathi ukuba iTurkey ayikhange iphendule "kuxhatshazo" lwakwa-Israel kulo mmandla, "Siza kujongana nethemba lokuphulukana nobungangamsha bethu kulo mmandla."
I-Iran inokuba iyaxoka-nangona kungekho bungqina bokuba uTehran wenza umgudu onzulu wokuvelisa isixhobo senyukliya-kodwa ukuba kunjalo, basebenzisana kakuhle nabantu baseMelika kunye namaSirayeli.
Kungekudala okanye kamva umntu uza kumisa enye yezo nukes. Abona baviwa balindelekileyo yi-Indiya nePakistan, nangona ukusetyenziswa yi-US kunye ne-China kuLwandle lwase-China eMazantsi akukho ngaphandle kombuzo. Kwaye akukho luthuli phakathi kwe-NATO neRussia kwiBaltic.
Kulula ukutyhola umhlali okhoyo ngoku we-White House ngokruthakruthwano lwehlabathi, ngaphandle nje kokuba amagunya amakhulu enyukliya ebetyeshela izibophelelo zawo kwizixhobo zenyukliya nokuthotywa kwezixhobo ngaphezu kweminyaka engama-50.
Indlela ebuyela ezingqondweni inameva kodwa ayinakwenzeka:
Enye: ukujoyina kwakhona iSivumelwano seMisile ye-Anti-ballistic, ngaloo ndlela yenza imijukujelwa yoluhlu oluphakathi lwaseRashiya ingabi yimfuneko, kunye nokunciphisa ukungavisisani phakathi kwe-US ne-China ngokurhoxisa iinkqubo ze-ABM eJapan kunye noMzantsi Korea.
Eyesibini: phinda umisele iSivumelwano soMkhosi weNyukliya kuLuhlu oluPhakathi kwaye ufumane indlela yokuzisa iChina, i-Indiya kunye nePakistan kuyo. Oko kuya kufuna ukucuthwa ngokubanzi kwemikhosi yomkhosi wase-US e-Asia kunye nesivumelwano ne-China ukuba irhoxe kumabango ayo kuLwandle lwase China. Ukungavisisani phakathi kweIndiya nePakistan kuya kuncitshiswa kakhulu ngokuzalisekisa nje isibhambathiso se-UN sokubamba uhlolo-zimvo eKashmir. Aba bamva baphantse bavotele ukuzimela.
Ezintathu: qhubeka ngokubambelela kwiSivumelwano sokuQALA kodwa umise ukuphuculwa kwezixhobo zenyukliya zeBig Five kwaye uqale ukuphumeza iSiqendu VI se-NPT ngokubhekiselele kumandla enyukliya kunye nesiqhelo.
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